Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Stock Thread (35 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
beef
Footballguy
@BassNBrew 
Not just Tech for me, but I did do a bit of buying there between TQQQ & SOXL. Russell 2000 hit -20% from ATH this morning and bought some TNA at 54. More BNKU too. Couple others...
Best way to buy the bottom is to keep buying it down. I have no concern that these won't bounce back, and if they don't there are much bigger things to be concerned about.
Not just Tech for me, but I did do a bit of buying there between TQQQ & SOXL. Russell 2000 hit -20% from ATH this morning and bought some TNA at 54. More BNKU too. Couple others...
Best way to buy the bottom is to keep buying it down. I have no concern that these won't bounce back, and if they don't there are much bigger things to be concerned about.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Shop is currently up 38% from its pre-pandemic high in Q1 2020.
In that same timeframe its revenue is up 150%, and EPS is up 1200%.
Last edited by a moderator:
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Is there any chance boffo earnings for MSFT and/or AAPL this week trigger the turnaround for the entire growth sector? It feels like earnings used to trigger moves, but that didn't seem as true during the run up in 2020-2021.
Todem
Footballguy
Good observation. And yes theoretically earnings and free cash flow should lead the quality names higher as the year progresses.
The highly speculative names are simply getting wiped out.
That “throwing in the towel” moment is starting to form but be patient…..NASDAQ is obviously swimming in a sea of blood.
Fun fact - Only 30% of people who own Bitcoin are sitting in an unrealized gain position. 70% are now underwater. Can you say bubble?
Last edited by a moderator:
I think it’s possible. Way back when our portfolio’s we’re still worth something earnings had to be crazy to keep moving up. Now, even those solid numbers don’t matter. People are running for the exits, but boffo earnings could make people rethink things.
That last paragraph is meme stocks too. Do we really think the early YouTubers and Twitterverse folks, who actually got in early, didn't sell out early? The retailer HODLers are likely down a ton and still buying.
Todem
Footballguy
100% on the meme. Biggest pump and dump in the last decade easy.
Was pretty obvious to a guy like me. I stayed the hell outta that BS. Because that is exactly what that is. Pure BS.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So put all my money in an index fund and walk away?
stinkzmagee
Footballguy
Blood in the streets. Baby with the bath water type stuff in any growth stocks.
Again, why is the previous high the barometer? If you go back 1 year prior to that and run the numbers it paints a very different picture.
Not picking on SHOP specifically either, just an example. Plenty of these names are down significantly in the last few months but still up a TON in the last ~3 years.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Oh I got some. My entire 403b I'm sure is down 4% today.
My Roth is half deployed now, buying NFLX, FLGT, SHOP, amongst some other Todem favorites. Fortunately most of that buying was today. Half the Roth left to shop with if theres more blood after this.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Just did the Roth(IRA) contributions for the year for the wife and I (2045 vanguard target retirement for her and 2045 t Rowe price for me).
Last edited by a moderator:
Todem
Footballguy
Not all.....lol. Nibble. We have more to go folks.
Would not surprise me to see a dead cat bounce tomorrow.....then some more selling. But you get the idea. You can’t time a bottom.
If you don’t have the resources nor time to invest in individual stocks as another poster who asked this question several pages back....for your set it and forget money...this is a very strong day to start taking some ETF positions in all the sectors (symbols) I posted above. Extremely low cost and will get the job done if you are going to buy and hold for 10,15-20 years.
Todem
Footballguy
Oh I do.....when the VIX goes up 30% in a day.....you are seeing very nervous investors taking hold.....and we are not in full on capitulation yet.....but for what my thesis about why this happening.....we are getting there.I don't think capitulation means what you think it means
I never said we are crashing nor are we going into a recession. This is a recalibration.
Expect even more heavy selling into the close.....capitulation is getting close.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
They were holding up great and now today finally going red…..and I expect some more. For me that is the last shoe. When I see great growing dividend stocks and classic defensive stuff sell off we are going all in with the cash we have.
Last edited by a moderator:
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
SHOP was like 11% down and now in the green? Yeesh
cosjobs
Footballguy
Historically, What's a typical P/E fro a solid divgrowth? I'd guess maybe 8-18 for most, depending on relative quality.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Correct...I would as high as 20 times if the revenue growth, cash flow and dividend growth rate justify it.
cosjobs
Footballguy
So that's the bottom, for me. P/Es normalized and re-enter with great quality. Likely start phasing in as norms approach
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Could have sworn I added a share of SHOP earlier but must not have clicked submit. 
Klimtology
Footballguy
I just went all cash this morning. Am I dumb?
Sorry to be blunt, but today was a terrible day to go all cash. It’s the definition of selling low. Yes, it can go lower, but if you were that worried or not planning to hold long, you should have gotten out a bit ago. At this point, I would only sell if I was moving money from one stock to another.I just went all cash this morning. Am I dumb?
No idea if prices are at the bottom but it’s also way more likely that being in all cash that you’ll miss some of the big up days after the bottom. When you hold long term, one big benefit is that you get every big up day which for many stocks is a bulk of their returns. Missing those means you sold low and bought high.
beef
Footballguy
I can't predict the market's future so can't say for sure, but that is not a move I would have done. Exact opposite for me. Days like today are my favorites to buy.I just went all cash this morning. Am I dumb?
General Malaise
Footballguy
I don't think it's fair to label anybody for their actions during market volatility. If you felt safer going into cash this morning, that's not an indictment on your intelligence or your fortitude.I just went all cash this morning. Am I dumb?
I try hard not to repeat mantras or try to sound sophisticated by quoting famed money managers, but Jesse Livermore comes to mind when the markets are acting irrationally. There's a really good condensed version of his thoughts called "Six Trading Lessons from Speculator Jesse Livermore". I like to re-read #2:
After a wild and lengthy rollercoaster ride as a speculator, Livermore believes he has found the secret to his success. It’s obvious he’s excited by this discovery, which he eagerly shares:
“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
“It is no trick at all to be right on the market,” he adds. “I’ve known many [traders] who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine; that is, they made no real money out of it. [Traders] who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.”
Last edited by a moderator:
Holy #### nuts. I’m up almost 2% and I’m fairly certain I was down 6%+ at lunch.Damn, I'm green. What a f'n day...
Now back to red.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Anybody in here with any experience with the stock Athira Pharma Inc - ATHA? Getting a lot of interesting info on this one. Took a starter position in it on Friday. Key focus on Alzheimers. Curious if anybody here has familiarity.
Such a hideous disease. Would love a breakthrough drug here.
Such a hideous disease. Would love a breakthrough drug here.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
crazyColor me green, but I don’t believe that was the bottom quite yet. Wish I didn’t have a job and could have bought a few things at lunch! Might have made investing harder but still.
