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Stock Thread (39 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Gopher State
Footballguy
Read an analyst report that said FB is entering the sunset of being a growth stock. TicTok does concern me me a lot, FB looks more and more less Appleish when it comes to having a cult following.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
FB has exceeded 20% growth every quarter for the last 5 years other than March 2020.
TicTok is super popular....among teenagers that have no money to spend with advertisers. FB is only popular with older people....who have tons of disposable income to spend with advertisers.
Even if the theory is that FB itself is for old people that mattering in the bottom line is years and years away. In the meantime they have $60bn cash on hand, plenty of time, and an already very popular among young people app to figure it out.
And that's assuming that the younger generation doesn't just move to FB themselves when they get older (which is also when they'll have money) and 10 second videos of people lip syncing are no longer attractive to them.
TicTok is super popular....among teenagers that have no money to spend with advertisers. FB is only popular with older people....who have tons of disposable income to spend with advertisers.
Even if the theory is that FB itself is for old people that mattering in the bottom line is years and years away. In the meantime they have $60bn cash on hand, plenty of time, and an already very popular among young people app to figure it out.
And that's assuming that the younger generation doesn't just move to FB themselves when they get older (which is also when they'll have money) and 10 second videos of people lip syncing are no longer attractive to them.
Sand
Footballguy
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
Put me in the camp that thinks Facebook will be fine long term. I'm currently underwater with them but thinking about adding more.
Not in a hurry to do so at the moment but likely will
Not in a hurry to do so at the moment but likely will
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I appreciate all of the great advice Todem has given us but also have to respectfully disagree with him on FB. My grandchildren call it Old Book.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Good time to buy more CRM?
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Bought ABNB yesterday premarket @$163.00 and it closed $169.66. Now around $175 premarket. Earnings today after the close. Expected to be good. Long ho!d.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
This is a common misconception. TikTok is indeed extremely popular with Millenials and Gen X. Hell I know a bunch of boomers who are living on that damn app now. The older you go, the more the demographic skews female.
Some stats:
TikTok has 1 Billion monthly active users
TikTok has the longest average session length of any social media app
TikTok has increased 550% among US adults in the last 18 months, wtih 2:1 female:male ratio.
38% of US Mobile users access TikTok monthly
75% of US TikTok Users are over 19 years old.
Make no mistake... TikTok isn't going ANYWHERE and is on a YouTube-esque trajectory. Absent a successful pivot into the metaverse, Facebook has plateaued.
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Capella
Footballguy
Obviously anecdotal but my buddy who did no social media (no Twitter, only a FB account that was never used) pretty much lives on tiktok. Constantly sending us videos and talking about it. He’s 44. Probably a lot of that.
Nugget
Footballguy
Got out of all my oil positions and pushed to SOXL. Average cost 39.xx. Hoping it bounces around here until mid March when I can reload some more cashThanks Putin and gullible sellers of semiconductors so I could add more SOXL under 40.
<39
beef
Footballguy
Agreed. Heard a stat recently that TikTok got more hits than Google last year. Believe it's also the most downloaded app in the world too?
I really wanted to invest in TikTok (ByteDance Limited) a couple of years ago when it was talked about going public and joining the US Markets. Don't care how shady Chinese accounting is either. I want some of it.
Yet my company created a FB page and had a new customer within a week. Watching some guy take a dump in a bucket mop on TikTok makes me laugh, posting a picture of a dog in my office on FB makes me money.
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Insoxicated
They do.
Instagram is still doing extremely well.
WhatsApp is extremely popular outside the US (over texting), but is much more challenging to monetize. Messaging app users are FAR less tolerant to advertising than they are with their social media apps.
My guess is Facebook will hope many people rejecting tracking in FB will permit it in WhatsApp or IG, so they still get their data. However the privacy trend isn't being removed anytime soon and Google will soon follow Apple on requiring express permission to track. That will, IMO, be another nail in Facebook's coffin as the king of online advertising.
Oculus is a VERY interesting acquisition and will be a key tool in their push into the Metaverse. I don't know enough to comment, but it would seem to be a sizeable competitive advantage in that space.
I remember when AOL was king, too..... and Yahoo..... and Myspace....
The only constant in tech is change.
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Feels very Nadar Poorhousinish to me.
@Chadstroma Tell me the UWMC parking lots are full of customers and this forward PE of 6 is accurate and the 9% dividend isn't in danger.
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Insoxicated
Generalizing TikTok as all worthless videos is misguided IMO. We've begun partnering with several content creators providing tools/components for them to demonstrate on their channels.... with a target market of electricians and contractors. It's moving the needle for us.
Facebook, on the other hand, has been passed by Linked In WRT engagement.
I despise TikTok for their horrible privacy/security practices.... but sleeping on them as a tool for your business is a big mistake. This from a marketing guy.
The content in my industry (property management) that people would enjoy would drive customers away.
Do you have any suggestions/links where I could get a quick education on how to leverage TikTok for your business?
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Insoxicated
Not exactly the same industry, but Residential Real Estate is BOOMING on Tik Tok.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/success/tiktok-real-estate-agents/index.html
I know two agent friends who are working with local videographers to shoot promo videos for milllion dollar listings. Fancy cars, costume jewlery, rented gowns/suits... it's all aspirational in nature... helping the viewer envision their glamorous life living in the home.
Some markets have gone over the top with Princess / Victorian themes in some homes where it fits.
Content is king. If your video is some pasty middle aged guy standing in a room reading a script about the features of the space.. you're dead in the water. You've got to create engaging/interesting content... you've got 1-2 seconds to grab folks attention. Using trending backing tracks and tags helps get you eyeballs.. but it's up to you to win them over.
The only thing that can stop TikTok, near term, is government intervention for privacy/security violations.. .which is a risk.
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Gopher State
Footballguy
Great points here. However losing million users in their last report is concerning. I sold my holdings in FB in early December and put the proceeds to work in Amazon, not sure about that move. I will buy FB back if it touches the150.00 mark. I don’t think it ever gets back to 300.00 at least not in the next two years with an aggressive Fed.
Capella
Footballguy
Yup. Beautiful women in heels showing off the house with a rap beat playing in the background. It’s a great tool if used effectively! A lot of people peddling (likely crappy) financial advice on there too.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I've never been on Tiktok. Sounds like it might make this old goat randy as the dickens. 
culdeus
Footballguy
Thinking back to tech failures it was a classic revenue squeeze, on each. When you look at IG and TikTok paying out creators 7 figure incomes, where is the ad revenue coming from? I see on youtube ads for the most banal bull#### like testosterone boosters, engine degreasers, and get rich quick schemes. None of what is promoted on YT seems capable of sustaining the creators and giving profit back to the sites.
Hosting and indexing and moderating these sites is expensive AF. Seems like it's not that the sites became unpopular, it's that the next hot thing paid them more. This is unsustainable.
Edit to only say that site traffic and participation for these situations IS the problem, not the solution. Driving traffic drives expenses that is not driving revenue. The IG ### models make the least sense, they push beauty stuff on mostly guys that just want them to turn around and shut up. If you look at FB, it seems like their core user is giving them revenue. Some 15yo kid watching guys face plant off a roof in a fail video isn't.
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Insoxicated
Many of these girls are doing it for free gear, free hotel stays, etc. A small percentage are getting traffic revenue.
Many are simply thinly-veiled escort services. Google "Dubai Porta Potties" for a peek behind that curtain...
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Insoxicated
As someone who works in this field, I'll respectfully disagree. YT pays about $2-3k per million views for most creators. CPM rates for advertising MORE than cover that. Higher end creators obviously get paid more and are likely loss-leaders.
ROI on these ads varies wildly based on precision of targeting (why Facebook was so successful for a while), and quality of campaign... but a LOT of companies are extremely successful with these campaigns.
Most social networks are killing off the term "Influencer" in favor of "Creators", and the creator economy is about to explode. Creators are now able to integrate referral links into content and forge direct partnerships with advertisers... which aids advertisers in more directly tracking spend to revenue. There are a LOT of developments coming on this front over the next year.... many of which most folks know little or nothing about at this point.
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Insoxicated
Sorry to derail the thread, just trying to offer some insight regarding what will likely be a massive overhaul of eCommerce as we know it. They key is keeping folks on platform as much as possible through integration. We've only seen the tip of the iceberg.
Digital Natives (kids born into the digital world), think differently than we do. Their purchasing decision tree is fundamentally different than ours. The way they expect to interact with brands is different as well. This is the future. Whether FB/IG/TT will be around in 20 years is one thing... but the game is changing dramatically.
Investing on where eCommerce is going rather than where it was 5 or 10 years ago will absolutely determine the winners and losers in the stock market over the next decade.
Digital Natives (kids born into the digital world), think differently than we do. Their purchasing decision tree is fundamentally different than ours. The way they expect to interact with brands is different as well. This is the future. Whether FB/IG/TT will be around in 20 years is one thing... but the game is changing dramatically.
Investing on where eCommerce is going rather than where it was 5 or 10 years ago will absolutely determine the winners and losers in the stock market over the next decade.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
*According to a private Chinese company that can kinda say whatever they want.
I'm not saying the numbers aren't true, they probably are, but in July 2020 they classified a full 33% of their users as 14 and under.
I have big questions about Tik Tok's long term sustainability, partly because we've seen this exact business grow and fail before. There's nothing fundamentally different with Tik Tok than there was with Vine, which hit 200 million monthly active users back in 2013 prior to everyone getting bored of it and moving on.
I think one big roadblock for Tik Tok is advertising. Eventually they're going to have to start making a profit off of this thing. They're at 1/3rd of FB's monthly user numbers with 1/30th the revenue generated. The problem is there isn't really a great way to ramp up advertising on short videos without ruining the user experience.
FB was able to put the majority of the advertising burden on the advertisers rather than the users. Every 10 posts or whatever are a sponsored ad, which is easy to scroll past in a quarter of a second, and doesn't really ruin the viewer experience much. The other big revenue source is business users having to pay to access their own followers. Are Tik Tok influencers going to be willing to pay to post their videos when they don't have any clickable tracking to the amount of revenue each video is bringing in?
YouTube can get away with posting a 20 second video ad at the beginning of a 20 minute video. Are people going to be willing to put up with watching ads that are longer than the video they're trying to watch?
I also just wonder about the long term sustainability of short videos. It seems like something that's fun for a year or two, but then you get bored of it, as everyone did with Vine a decade ago. FB memes are fun, but I think if the memes were the gist of it I would have gotten bored of it a long time ago. I suspect most people stick around for 10-20 years because they get a lot of their news, worldly/entertainment updates, and family updates there, and the memes/ads just get sprinkled in at this point.
I think there are plenty of companies that don't worry about whether their product is interesting to teenagers when their target revenue market isn't teenagers. People grow up and their taste's change. Last decade's Vine users are this decade's FB/IG users.
I appreciate the discussion. You've made some good points and bring a notable perspective into it with your business. Definitely given me some stuff to think about.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Bought 1, 4/1/22, $75, DWAC put for $15.
The original launch date was November, then 2/21, now 3/31.
Then there's this:
SPAC under investigation by federal regulators, including SEC
and this
Where did 1 billion investment come from?
Then of course the Mazars story from yesterday.
I might have to buy another contract or two but just keeping an eye on it for now.
The original launch date was November, then 2/21, now 3/31.
Then there's this:
SPAC under investigation by federal regulators, including SEC
and this
Where did 1 billion investment come from?
Then of course the Mazars story from yesterday.
I might have to buy another contract or two but just keeping an eye on it for now.
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Insoxicated
Couldn't one say the same about Facebook & MySpace? There are DRAMATIC differences between Vine and TikTok as well...FreeBaGeL said:
They are also moving totally in opposite directions. Very few if any tech companies avoid the "burn before you bank" stage... The difference is Facebook is facing massive headwinds.. their population is getting older, kids hate it, their core revenue stream (advertising) just had one leg cut out from under it and is about to lose another.. they're facing potential regulatory issues in Europe... all while burning piles of cash in an attempt to pull off a MASSIVE pivot (metaverse).FreeBaGeL said:
Meanwhile TikTok is facing explosive growth among all demographics, but is the far and away leader among the most coveted demographic for tech.
Spoken like a true Boomer / GenXerFreeBaGeL said:
Short form video is here to stay. Our attention spans have been fundamentally altered as our brains have been effectively re-wired by tech. Everything in communications is pushing to a TLDR culture. Even in print, long form catalogs are dying in favor of one-sheets. Our brains are being retrained and attention spans are constricting. I don't think that's a short term trend. Again... Assuming Tik Tok audience is all teenagers is a mistake. Dismissing metrics as "chinese noise" is unwise. I see the surge among my demographic (30-40 somethings) with my own eyes. Hell, the 60-70 somethings my parents run with all fire off tik-tok links to each other regularly in group threads.FreeBaGeL said:
All platforms have a life cycle... and Tik Tok will need to get creative with how to monetize, no doubt. But I think they're the real deal. And I'll reiterate.. I hate Tik Tok... don't use it due to huge privacy concerns.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It was a long time ago so I could be mis-remembering, but didn't MySpace basically die because Facebook killed it? I don't think MySpace was a thing where people just got bored of social media, gave up on it, and then 10 years later another very similar company came and did the same thing and it worked this time. People wanted social media feeds, they just changed their mind over which company they wanted to do it with.
I think that's different than Vine who didn't lose out to a different video shorts competitor, people just decided that they had grown tired of video shorts altogether.
Your point about people being different now is well taken, but I don't think FB/Myspace are at all analogous to Vine/TikTok.
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Insoxicated
Vine died because it wasn't very sticky. Partially due to lack of a good algorithm. Tik Tok does not have that problem.. in fact, Tik Tok is arguably the stickiest platform out there right now.
Vine also suffered from a market that wasn't really ready. Mobile penetration and bandwidth was different. The "rewiring" of our brain into a short attention span was also not as far along as it is, now.
You're not wrong in how the transition happened... but the why is different IMO.
I'm far from an expert on this... much of what I'm sharing are from technologist I'm friends with or follow. They could be wrong, I could be wrong... just sharing perspective.
Any platform that streamlines the company/creator to customer interaction, and removes as much friction from the buying process as possible... will win in this new economy.
I fully expect Tik Tok to integrate ecommerce this year. A that point, leveraging their user base they should be able to generate sizeable revenues as a portion of transactions on platform. Amazon takes a slice of every sale on their platform... apple takes a slice of every sale on their platform... Facebook/IG do the same.... I expect TikTok will be no different.
culdeus
Footballguy
[icon] said:
I think it's the sustainability that is really in question here not the tech that can leverage the content creators stuff. That part seems locked in there's just a difference from pushing affiliate links and people clicking them and generating pennies of ROI.
TikTok is just changing the equation because they shoulder the bulk of the cost for the creators. That's not sustainable at the watch thrus they offer. Doesn't mean creators can't make big money and some ads land. It's just not a long term model.
OnlyFans and Twitch seems like the venues that make the most sense. The viewers tip for #### or lulz. That type of revenue stream is sustainable. The rest is just a bubble waiting for the next hot app to pay more for awhile.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Following Jon, bought 20 PLTR $15.50 calls at $0.51 each but expire 2/25 instead of 2/18.
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Insoxicated
Who knows. ByteDance is already claiming profitability, which would be amazing if true.
I do get the wariness of trusting Chinese numbers... but as they grow, the spotlight on validating those numbers is growing.
We shall see!
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Well... UWM never has customers in the parking lots unless you count the brokers going to their "UWM Success Track" classes.BassNBrew said:
I have no knowledge of the PE or divisend but I don't suspect either to change.
I meant that loan volume is still high and you and your peer's days are full with people wanting loans.
When Lowe's was cratering in the 60's and the parking lots were full it's was the biggest no-brainer ever. I could see the Lowe's parking lots but can't see the UMW parking lots....but maybe you can?
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I can tell you that I favor UWM for purchase business to the point that when I run rates I look for where they are first before others and if I need to make a little less to make the loan work with them, I will. Most brokers think in similar ways. The more purchase business there is, the more UWM will get a bigger piece of the smaller pie. Overall loan volume will/is decreasing greatly as refinances become rare. As an antidote to that, I have closed more loans with UWM this month than I have the last several months combined. Demand is still very high for purchase loans.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
So the AMD shares are now in my account, and it's showing I'm at a 15% loss? Looks like the cost basis for the AMD shares was $141.54 and change, and it's down at about $121 today. Meanwhile I'm actually up about 45% on my XLNX investment based on today's AMD price. I can't imagine that gain gets "wiped out" from a tax perspective, does it?
Sand
Footballguy
Ticker change to RBRBL incoming.
Man, through this whole slump I've done exactly nothing. Just HODL. I feel so inadequate.
Glad I bought more yesterday. Cathie Wood bought 146k shares of SE yesterday for ARK
