fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Vix still only at 32, we’ve still got room to run.
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Stock Thread (25 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
I'm 15+ years from retirement and my daughter can get college loans, so no sweat there. Today feels like capitulation or it's wishful thinking that it's capitulation. Either way, I'm pushing my chips all in. I'll be sitting at practically zero cash by lunchtime. Good luck to all. I'll be over here in the corner, drinking.
David Dodds
Administrator
At least wait out the week for the margin calls to hit. I think we are definitely going lower. And lower triggers the recession word so there will be weeks of news keeping people uneasy at the least.
Todem
Footballguy
I hate to use this term but reversals like these are par for the course when you are a long term investor. Keep that emotion in check as best as you can.....don’t look at it. Just keep contributing. At year end evaluate your goals, risk level and asset allocation and make moves when markets are in better upswings and far less volatile. Do not make emotional decisions which long term you will no doubt regret.
I agree.....do not try and time a bottom. Do we have more flush out in store? Probably. We are finally done pushing in today.....I simply don’t time bottoms and if I miss 4-5% downside.....so be it. We are long term and we expect markets to over correct both on the down and upside.
Plenty of value out there. Plenty of panic. Plenty of opportunity long term.
If you are fully invested......again enjoy doing other things. Remember you don’t need this money right now or you would be invested a lot differently.
My current income portfolios are down as of Friday for the year 5%.
When your in retirement your portfolio is going to look a lot different than they do today.
Stay on course......year end all of you are going to be much happier. I am 99% sure of that.
The VIX is up 24% today......24%. Yeah capitulation is absolutely happening.
Sit tight.....grab a cool drink. Enjoy your summer. Turn off CNBC. Go to some summer movies, enjoy your kids.
Everything will be ok.
McBokonon
Footballguy
@CapitalObserver
I'm waiting for capitulation. I want 600 of the S&P 500 stocks to be down
cosjobs
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
For sure.....but a 24% move in one day speaks a lot.
Also.....do you think we are going into a deep recession? If so yeah....this thing could be far uglier. I am not in that camp.
Nasdaq is down 32% from the highs.....huge move in an economy that has been resilient with all this inflation, War, political discourse.....so I am a glass half full kinda guy.
But yeah we talked about it several weeks ago more pain was in store over the summer. Here we are.
Ugh, kick to the nads but just hanging on for the long haul. Wish I had more cash but at least we’ve almost $5k a month going into the 401k. Not sure if I want to deploy the rest of the IRA cash yet. Some serious bargains in companies that literally raised guidance maybe a week ago. Would be nice to have a crystal ball so you could sit down and relax. I’m definitely not watching the market much at all. Woo hoo! Early retirement plans phooey, who needs that!
Todem
Footballguy
Yeah....bottom line is.....this sucks. We all hate it. But it’s part of the journey.
I had a big chunk go into my 401K on Friday.....wish it was today...LOL!!!
Is what it is.
Nugget
Footballguy
I’ve DCA’d into the 25s on SOXL, but I am probably looking at some diversification going forward. Thinking about an small entry back into TMF, but it isn’t the hedge it used to be.SOXL in the 15's and I got no cash to deploy on it until tomorrow.
beef
Footballguy
Pulled the rest of what I had in BTC that I'll use to DCA on SOXL. That should get me just below 30 so I got a ways to go yet.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
It's the worst losing streak for the Dow since the great depression, I wouldn't exactly call that "par for the course".
Just curious, what makes you so sure that things are going to be much better by the end of the year? What's the catalyst for a big bounce back?
cosjobs
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
I have slowly deleveraged over the last 2 months (as in allocation, I don't use leverage). Still, being down 18-19% sucks. Sitting on ~10% cash now. I really want to start DCA-ing into TLT as when inflation does peak the long side of the bond market should zoom. I'm always to eager to do something and pull triggers too quick, though, so sitting on my hands now.
Only sunlight I have is that my new company has an ESPP and it buys on June 30. I think I'm guaranteed to get in at a low, low price - hopefully we see some recovery and a nice payday (I'm at max investment there) for Christmas when it rolls over.
Smartest thing I've done lately is pull all monies from crypto savings places - Celsius, Blockfi, Voyager. When it started to look unsafe last month I pulled and now Celsius has frozen up. The rates were nice while they lasted.
I'd like to hear todem's take. A few catalysts could be around the corner. First, we're looking for a top on inflation and this latest report indicated that it is still rising so here we are at -3% a couple days in a row. But it's going to level off and come back down to earth, we just don't know when. High oil prices / gas prices / food prices are killing the consumer. That leads me to catalyst number two which would be resolution in Ukraine. Is it coming tomorrow, next week, next month, later this year? Again, who knows? But that would provide a huge relief to perception, at the very least. Finally, now matter how you look at the P/E of the entire S&P (there's lots of ways to slice it), the P/E is getting back to a more normal range. Certainly still not cheap, but we have a fundamentally strong economy with strong demand. Sure we need to tame inflation and get the supply chain kinks fixed. But those are lots of areas where positive news might emerge.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I like the long side of the bond market. Literally everyone is on the other side of that trade. Might take a little time until you’re proven correct though.
Yes, the TLT is a good call. I've bought or sold options on in the past. Since it tends to move slowly, the premiums are not too high so a big payoff can be had for a well-timed options play on TLT.
Sand
Footballguy
If TLT drops under 110 I'm going to start buying. It bottomed at 106 or so last cycle. Right now I have 10% super short duration bond exposure (i.e. cash) that's supposed to be on my bond side allocation. The rest of my bonds are pretty short duration, though I'm still down 12% on my total bond (oof).
Still, sitting on hands for now.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I mean yeah inflation will come down eventually. Although, the term peak inflation sounds to me like the new transitory, a term they had to retire. You just hope it hasn’t completely destroyed the economy and consumer before it does.
Ridgeback
Footballguy
Yeah. Hopefully it reverses soon. I have waaay to much in my Roth at an average of $133
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Had my Healthcare IT pick, CERN, bought out by Oracle so I put the proceeds into VEEV today to replace the Healthcare IT coverage. It's fun buying in so low.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Oof that was brutal. Bought more today than I wanted.
Sure, they could be around the corner, or they could be a long ways away and get worse before they get better.
It's going to be extremely difficult for everything to go perfectly and we have a "soft" landing- taming inflation is very likely going to damage that fundamentally strong economy with strong demand, that's pretty much by design. Even if we do get lucky, that may only stop the bleeding instead of creating another sharp "V" shaped bounce.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Samesies. Part of that was putting a starter position in SI as it was down 18% today.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Impossible to pick a bottom but for funsies where does everyone think this bear market ultimately bottoms? Few months ago I said I thought we'd hit 3400-3500 on the SP500. I think the Fed is even more incompetent than I thought and after a few up and downs, I think we get very close to 3000 even before starting a new bull run.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
This Fed meeting is beyond crucial. They need to establish some kind of credibility because right now they have none.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
That’s the story going around and it's horse hockey. If they raise 1/2 as expected then perhaps they aren't taking this seriously. If they raise it 3/4 which is what was reported today, they're being too aggressive.
You want credibility? Powell was able to hold on to his job and keep interest rates from going even lower like the last POTUS wanted. Things would be far worse if he wasn't able to navigate that.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Sold this for $5.50 lol
ETA
Typo in the OP. Expiration was 6/17. I would have held a few more days if I had to 6/24 but felt happy to get out at even.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I wish I would have held another hour, went from $35.50 to under $30. Good news is have plenty of more puts for July and September.
cosjobs
Footballguy
today was a very good dayI wish I would have held another hour, went from $35.50 to under $30. Good news is have plenty of more puts for July and September.
cosjobs
Footballguy
+1050.32%
+883.50%
Holy moly. My two best bets ever, in any format
How much do I sell? Currently DWAC is at 28.18
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
My personal philosophy on this one has been to sell most if not all. Take your profits and buy cheaper puts longer out.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I thought long and hard on this, but its up another 20% at close and cannot trade AH.
I will sell 20-30% of my UVXY holding though.
Reading the hubub about DWAC, I think it only goes down from here:
The government has expanded its inquiry into the proposed merger of Donald Trump’s Truth Social and the SPAC planning to bring it public.
Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC), in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, said securities regulators are seeking additional documents and information about the proposed merger. Specifically, authorities are interested in “communications regarding and due diligence of potential targets other than [Trump’s company].”
The investigation into the merger was previously announced, but this is the latest sign that authorities are stepping up their examination. The focus of the review seems to be on whether the two sides negotiated before DWAC went public, which would be illegal.
DWAC shares surged last October when news broke that the special purpose acquisition company would be bringing Truth Social into public markets, gaining more than 400% in one day. DWAC began trading in September.
“Any resolution of the investigation could result in the imposition of significant penalties, injunctions, prohibitions on the conduct of Digital World’s business, damage to its reputation, and other sanctions against Digital World,” the company said in the filing.
Trump’s deal with DWAC gives him virtually unlimited power at the company. A previous filing noted that no personal or political conduct could be considered terms of a breach of the agreement, even if it was “dishonest, illegal, immoral, or unethical.”.
Trump will also have the power to elect who sits on the board of directors and can potentially block matters that would normally require stockholder approval, including the acquisition of the company.
Trump currently has 3.25 million followers on the Twitter-like site.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
Ridgeback
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
Ridgeback
Footballguy
Punxsutawney Phil
Footballguy
These stocks have sucked but Verizon has those home 5g things that look promising. They could do to home internet what cell phones did to landlines.
GoBirds
Footballguy
I added both a couple months back as their upside was capped in the run up I’m hoping for less downside in this bear and there’s a dividend. Thanks guys.
