I meant this week, not so much today. When you have the leaders like Apple among others finally getting hit yes there is some capitulation. Great spot to get in long term and definately continue to dollar cost average your 401K. Bull/Bear spread at net 42% bearish right now which is a great contrarion indicator. S&P 500 PE at 15.5. Yes we could go lower in short term but by year end we will be higher than we are now.That’s not what capitulation looks like
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Stock Thread (22 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Flip side of that. Bull/bear spread can remain bearish for a long time in an actual bear market and forward earnings haven’t come down nearly enough making that PE look lower than it will be n the near future. Imo we need Apple and Tesla to get slammed harder and that VIX to push over 40. That’s not to say we can’t have a mini rally at some point before that happens. Still think we drop below 3400 and most likely in the 3000-3200 range.I meant this week, not so much today. When you have the leaders like Apple among others finally getting hit yes there is some capitulation. Great spot to get in long term and definately continue to dollar cost average your 401K. Bull/Bear spread at net 42% bearish right now which is a great contrarion indicator. S&P 500 PE at 15.5. Yes we could go lower in short term but by year end we will be higher than we are now.That’s not what capitulation looks like
As much as 15.5 PE from 22 at start of year is a case for bullish it is held in check by 10 year going from 1.60% to 3.90%. That is a huge move and puts the equity risk premium similar to where we started this year. Earnings will be interesting for sure but this year is still projected to be up 8% from last year.Flip side of that. Bull/bear spread can remain bearish for a long time in an actual bear market and forward earnings haven’t come down nearly enough making that PE look lower than it will be n the near future. Imo we need Apple and Tesla to get slammed harder and that VIX to push over 40. That’s not to say we can’t have a mini rally at some point before that happens. Still think we drop below 3400 and most likely in the 3000-3200 range.I meant this week, not so much today. When you have the leaders like Apple among others finally getting hit yes there is some capitulation. Great spot to get in long term and definately continue to dollar cost average your 401K. Bull/Bear spread at net 42% bearish right now which is a great contrarion indicator. S&P 500 PE at 15.5. Yes we could go lower in short term but by year end we will be higher than we are now.That’s not what capitulation looks like
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Certainly makes things interesting when you can get a risk free 4% now. I know I’ve put 20% in bonds as a downside buffer.As much as 15.5 PE from 22 at start of year is a case for bullish it is held in check by 10 year going from 1.60% to 3.90%. That is a huge move and puts the equity risk premium similar to where we started this year. Earnings will be interesting for sure but this year is still projected to be up 8% from last year.Flip side of that. Bull/bear spread can remain bearish for a long time in an actual bear market and forward earnings haven’t come down nearly enough making that PE look lower than it will be n the near future. Imo we need Apple and Tesla to get slammed harder and that VIX to push over 40. That’s not to say we can’t have a mini rally at some point before that happens. Still think we drop below 3400 and most likely in the 3000-3200 range.I meant this week, not so much today. When you have the leaders like Apple among others finally getting hit yes there is some capitulation. Great spot to get in long term and definately continue to dollar cost average your 401K. Bull/Bear spread at net 42% bearish right now which is a great contrarion indicator. S&P 500 PE at 15.5. Yes we could go lower in short term but by year end we will be higher than we are now.That’s not what capitulation looks like
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Missed and said they were hopefully breaking even next quarter... Yikes
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
In case you were optimistic about stocks/economy stabilizing... Don't.
www.reuters.com
OPEC+ to consider oil cut of over than 1 million barrels per day
It would be the biggest move since the COVID pandemic to address oil-market weakness.
drunken slob
Footballguy
YepIn case you were optimistic about stocks/economy stabilizing... Don't.
OPEC+ to consider oil cut of over than 1 million barrels per day
It would be the biggest move since the COVID pandemic to address oil-market weakness.
I was wrong about China reopening and increasing demand for oil. OPEC doesn't like it when Brent Crude is below $90/barrel. I'm still right that nothing is going to improve. I was just wrong about the reason why prices will remain high.
Every political leader on the planet (right or left) could resign right now and the war in Ukraine could end by lunch tomorrow, won't make a damn bit of difference.
Physics is going to rule the day for the next decade. Hopefully, Germany won''t de-industrialize to the point of being a post WW2 economy over the next five years.
drunken slob
Footballguy
Whose staying home to watch Credit Suisse go by the way of Lehman Brothers tomorrow?
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Yeah, that's not looking prettyWhose staying home to watch Credit Suisse go by the way of Lehman Brothers tomorrow?
KGB
Footballguy
CCL, oof that sucked!
drunken slob
Footballguy
Some folks might remember my posts about, $SLVO, $GLDI and $USOIYeah, that's not looking prettyWhose staying home to watch Credit Suisse go by the way of Lehman Brothers tomorrow?
These are ETN's that have been rated as "Low Value" for as long as I've held them (good dividends for a long while though). All three along with any other $CS issued ETN's just went through a 20:1 reverse split last Friday. Got whacked for almost $150 in Corporate Action costs because these doooshes can't manage money better
$CS is crapping the bed and looking for cash. Deutsche Bank, $DB, isn't far behind.
drunken slob
Footballguy
At this point, if I was a rich dude like that cat from Omaha, I'd just short the whole damn world right now.
ETA: Except maybe Australia. Lots of exportable natural resources there.
ETA: Except maybe Australia. Lots of exportable natural resources there.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Really does feel like we’re going to have 2008 all over again. Probably because they never fixed anything after that, just printed a whole lot of funny money.
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Buffett has been pouring money into OXY.At this point, if I was a rich dude like that cat from Omaha, I'd just short the whole damn world right now.
ETA: Except maybe Australia. Lots of exportable natural resources there.
drunken slob
Footballguy
Yep, physics is going to win. German's are going to be burning twigs for heat this winter.Buffett has been pouring money into OXY.At this point, if I was a rich dude like that cat from Omaha, I'd just short the whole damn world right now.
ETA: Except maybe Australia. Lots of exportable natural resources there.
Existing fossil fuel companies will continue to thrive.
As I said before, if you're not in fossil fuels right now, you've missed. The only land left to exploit volatility is Pink Sheets. Have fun paying commissions on those bets.
Also, if you have the kind of money I don't, maybe you should get into some individual equities or ETF's that hold fossil energy leading into the election.
I still believe there will be a euphoria around energy stocks/funds that you could profit from should all the people that will lie and tell us that our energy costs will go down, get into office.
And, don't forget, those do-gooders can't do a thing before the middle of February 2023, at best.
ETA: Nothing you do, or don't do, affects my holdings. I'm not here to tell you one thing or another. These are just my drunken thoughts as i try to figure out if I wan't to put stop-loss orders in before I finally crash.
TY
Last edited:
skol asylum
Footballguy
Well i followed through on his suggestions. Went all cash and then put in my order for 20 percent in two stock mutual funds, 30 percent in a bond and leaving 50 percent cash. We'll see if it bites me.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Here we go again. More false hope?
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
I don't understand this market.
Follow the 10 year yield. Down 20 basis points today to 3.60%, market rallying hard. Tomorrow it may be up 20 basis points and expect a blood bath. Just need to see inflation data to cool such as labor market to cool off and we could see this gain traction.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's still early, sometimes we don't even make it until the next day!
Seems like our choices are either start today +2% and end at -1%. Or today's +2% holds up and tomorrow is one of those -5% death days for the market.
skol asylum
Footballguy
Of course. You're all welcome?
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Quite possible. It could also be the start of another bull market.
Still.....
The stock market is fun again!!
skol asylum
Footballguy
Not feeling fun right now here. lolsQuite possible. It could also be the start of another bull market.
Still.....
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Good day to cut back if you’re overextended
Last edited:
Klimtology
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Stonks go up?Quite possible. It could also be the start of another bull market.
Still.....
ChiefD
Footballguy
Just today.Stonks go up?Quite possible. It could also be the start of another bull market.
Still.....
I'm wearing my cup again tomorrow.
Ridgeback
Footballguy
Yep. Feels like a dead cat bounce to me.
Klimtology
Footballguy
This.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I was thinking the same. That's probably good for all of us. lol
SouthJersey
Footballguy
Does anyone have the next $CYDY?
Chet was pimping DYAI when it was trading in the high 3s. Now it’s about half that. I pushed in some chips. His conviction sounded strong.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
2 nice days in a row. Of course, it's early still.
It is. No idea where things are going, but it’s funny with all the short term bond discussion. I think I’m up 7% in two days. Bear markets suck but when they turn, the returns can be fast and furious. That’s why it’s usually bad if you bail late in the bear market. If you timed it early to get out, you can obviously do better, but jumping out at this point is dangerous because it’s so easy to miss the run back up.
We’ll see how this rally goes and need to pay attention to when the next Fed meeting will be. That’s probably the day when a rally could get pummeled again. Anyone know when the next Fed rate hike is?
Capella
Footballguy
Superstitious
Elon Musk - single-handedly saving the market. The man is a hero.Now Musk says he is buying Twitter after all.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
It's why I decided to buy back in on Friday two months earlier than planned. When all you read, hear, EVERYWHERE, that as bad as things have been, it's going to get a lot worse. That's usually a good sign to buy.
Alien Fantasy
Footballguy
If I was sitting on stocks, I would sell all at today's peak and wait for the market crash that is coming when Credit Suisse and BNP Paribas collapse.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
More days like today, imo.
You got it. I’ll let them know.
Capella
Footballguy
Big green days are good imo
skol asylum
Footballguy
In reverse please. So I can buy back in.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Bold call but I think I agree.
ActionJackson68
Footballguy
Got to think this is a head fake. Nothing has changed to push the markets higher.
