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Pretty sure I would die.
That’s not what capitulation looks like
I meant this week, not so much today. When you have the leaders like Apple among others finally getting hit yes there is some capitulation. Great spot to get in long term and definately continue to dollar cost average your 401K. Bull/Bear spread at net 42% bearish right now which is a great contrarion indicator. S&P 500 PE at 15.5. Yes we could go lower in short term but by year end we will be higher than we are now.That’s not what capitulation looks like
Flip side of that. Bull/bear spread can remain bearish for a long time in an actual bear market and forward earnings haven’t come down nearly enough making that PE look lower than it will be n the near future. Imo we need Apple and Tesla to get slammed harder and that VIX to push over 40. That’s not to say we can’t have a mini rally at some point before that happens. Still think we drop below 3400 and most likely in the 3000-3200 range.I meant this week, not so much today. When you have the leaders like Apple among others finally getting hit yes there is some capitulation. Great spot to get in long term and definately continue to dollar cost average your 401K. Bull/Bear spread at net 42% bearish right now which is a great contrarion indicator. S&P 500 PE at 15.5. Yes we could go lower in short term but by year end we will be higher than we are now.That’s not what capitulation looks like
As much as 15.5 PE from 22 at start of year is a case for bullish it is held in check by 10 year going from 1.60% to 3.90%. That is a huge move and puts the equity risk premium similar to where we started this year. Earnings will be interesting for sure but this year is still projected to be up 8% from last year.Flip side of that. Bull/bear spread can remain bearish for a long time in an actual bear market and forward earnings haven’t come down nearly enough making that PE look lower than it will be n the near future. Imo we need Apple and Tesla to get slammed harder and that VIX to push over 40. That’s not to say we can’t have a mini rally at some point before that happens. Still think we drop below 3400 and most likely in the 3000-3200 range.I meant this week, not so much today. When you have the leaders like Apple among others finally getting hit yes there is some capitulation. Great spot to get in long term and definately continue to dollar cost average your 401K. Bull/Bear spread at net 42% bearish right now which is a great contrarion indicator. S&P 500 PE at 15.5. Yes we could go lower in short term but by year end we will be higher than we are now.That’s not what capitulation looks like
Certainly makes things interesting when you can get a risk free 4% now. I know I’ve put 20% in bonds as a downside buffer.As much as 15.5 PE from 22 at start of year is a case for bullish it is held in check by 10 year going from 1.60% to 3.90%. That is a huge move and puts the equity risk premium similar to where we started this year. Earnings will be interesting for sure but this year is still projected to be up 8% from last year.Flip side of that. Bull/bear spread can remain bearish for a long time in an actual bear market and forward earnings haven’t come down nearly enough making that PE look lower than it will be n the near future. Imo we need Apple and Tesla to get slammed harder and that VIX to push over 40. That’s not to say we can’t have a mini rally at some point before that happens. Still think we drop below 3400 and most likely in the 3000-3200 range.I meant this week, not so much today. When you have the leaders like Apple among others finally getting hit yes there is some capitulation. Great spot to get in long term and definately continue to dollar cost average your 401K. Bull/Bear spread at net 42% bearish right now which is a great contrarion indicator. S&P 500 PE at 15.5. Yes we could go lower in short term but by year end we will be higher than we are now.That’s not what capitulation looks like
YepIn case you were optimistic about stocks/economy stabilizing... Don't.
OPEC+ to consider oil cut of over than 1 million barrels per day
It would be the biggest move since the COVID pandemic to address oil-market weakness.www.reuters.com
Yeah, that's not looking prettyWhose staying home to watch Credit Suisse go by the way of Lehman Brothers tomorrow?
CCL, oof that sucked!
Some folks might remember my posts about, $SLVO, $GLDI and $USOIYeah, that's not looking prettyWhose staying home to watch Credit Suisse go by the way of Lehman Brothers tomorrow?
Buffett has been pouring money into OXY.At this point, if I was a rich dude like that cat from Omaha, I'd just short the whole damn world right now.
ETA: Except maybe Australia. Lots of exportable natural resources there.
Yep, physics is going to win. German's are going to be burning twigs for heat this winter.Buffett has been pouring money into OXY.At this point, if I was a rich dude like that cat from Omaha, I'd just short the whole damn world right now.
ETA: Except maybe Australia. Lots of exportable natural resources there.
Well i followed through on his suggestions. Went all cash and then put in my order for 20 percent in two stock mutual funds, 30 percent in a bond and leaving 50 percent cash. We'll see if it bites me.
Follow the 10 year yield. Down 20 basis points today to 3.60%, market rallying hard. Tomorrow it may be up 20 basis points and expect a blood bath. Just need to see inflation data to cool such as labor market to cool off and we could see this gain traction.
Of course. You're all welcome?
Quite possible. It could also be the start of another bull market.
The stock market is fun again!!
Not feeling fun right now here. lolsQuite possible. It could also be the start of another bull market.
Still.....
Stonks go up?Quite possible. It could also be the start of another bull market.
Still.....
Just today.Stonks go up?Quite possible. It could also be the start of another bull market.
Still.....
Yep. Feels like a dead cat bounce to me.
This.
I was thinking the same. That's probably good for all of us. lol
Chet was pimping DYAI when it was trading in the high 3s. Now it’s about half that. I pushed in some chips. His conviction sounded strong.
It is. No idea where things are going, but it’s funny with all the short term bond discussion. I think I’m up 7% in two days. Bear markets suck but when they turn, the returns can be fast and furious. That’s why it’s usually bad if you bail late in the bear market. If you timed it early to get out, you can obviously do better, but jumping out at this point is dangerous because it’s so easy to miss the run back up.
Superstitious
Elon Musk - single-handedly saving the market. The man is a hero.Now Musk says he is buying Twitter after all.
You got it. I’ll let them know.
Big green days are good imo
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