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Stock Thread (26 Viewers)

Not to get political, but $TWTR has been holding the line while a lot of tech has really sold off. If the Elon deal doesn’t go through, there will be a massive red candle incoming.
 
^VIX watching, hit 29 this morning.

Over the past year, every time the VIX has hit 29 (could say 28's) it's continued into or hit 31's within a few days. Last peaks were 36, 34, 34 ranges all within a week or so range of that 29 hit. Even if it trends back into the 28's-27's today or early next week I wouldn't trust it.
 
My 401K is awful. YTD down thru yesterday almost 30%. I typically follow a model portfolio from a Fidelity dude. I was doing a Global Quant aggressive growth type mix but switched it up a few weeks back to his regular Growth funds mix.

For the first time that I remember in years he's suggesting a serious pull back. Put 50% into cash, 30% into bonds, and 20% into a couple of stock funds.

I can see the market falling for a while but I'm hesitant to do so because I feel I screwed up and bailed late in the 08 crash and didn't get in fast enough back on the way up. For context I'm 48 so have at least another 15 years plus to retirement.
 
beef said:
^VIX watching, hit 29 this morning.

Over the past year, every time the VIX has hit 29 (could say 28's) it's continued into or hit 31's within a few days. Last peaks were 36, 34, 34 ranges all within a week or so range of that 29 hit. Even if it trends back into the 28's-27's today or early next week I wouldn't trust it.
Click to expand...

VIX at 30 has been a very strong buy signal for awhile. At least put some limits in.
 
skol asylum said:
My 401K is awful. YTD down thru yesterday almost 30%. I typically follow a model portfolio from a Fidelity dude. I was doing a Global Quant aggressive growth type mix but switched it up a few weeks back to his regular Growth funds mix.

For the first time that I remember in years he's suggesting a serious pull back. Put 50% into cash, 30% into bonds, and 20% into a couple of stock funds.

I can see the market falling for a while but I'm hesitant to do so because I feel I screwed up and bailed late in the 08 crash and didn't get in fast enough back on the way up. For context I'm 48 so have at least another 15 years plus to retirement.
Click to expand...
He’s a little late in the game to be going 20% stocks now. I mean we’re already down over 33% on the Nasdaq.
 
skol asylum said:
My 401K is awful. YTD down thru yesterday almost 30%. I typically follow a model portfolio from a Fidelity dude. I was doing a Global Quant aggressive growth type mix but switched it up a few weeks back to his regular Growth funds mix.

For the first time that I remember in years he's suggesting a serious pull back. Put 50% into cash, 30% into bonds, and 20% into a couple of stock funds.

I can see the market falling for a while but I'm hesitant to do so because I feel I screwed up and bailed late in the 08 crash and didn't get in fast enough back on the way up. For context I'm 48 so have at least another 15 years plus to retirement.
Click to expand...
I feel like it's too late to bail. Chances are you would miss getting back in at the right time.
 
fruity pebbles said:
skol asylum said:
My 401K is awful. YTD down thru yesterday almost 30%. I typically follow a model portfolio from a Fidelity dude. I was doing a Global Quant aggressive growth type mix but switched it up a few weeks back to his regular Growth funds mix.

For the first time that I remember in years he's suggesting a serious pull back. Put 50% into cash, 30% into bonds, and 20% into a couple of stock funds.

I can see the market falling for a while but I'm hesitant to do so because I feel I screwed up and bailed late in the 08 crash and didn't get in fast enough back on the way up. For context I'm 48 so have at least another 15 years plus to retirement.
Click to expand...
He’s a little late in the game to be going 20% stocks now. I mean we’re already down over 33% on the Nasdaq.
Click to expand...
Sure, from all-time highs when we had still had zero interest rates. It's still up ~36% over the last 3 years, and conditions have deteriorated immensely.
 
bcat01 said:
skol asylum said:
My 401K is awful. YTD down thru yesterday almost 30%. I typically follow a model portfolio from a Fidelity dude. I was doing a Global Quant aggressive growth type mix but switched it up a few weeks back to his regular Growth funds mix.

For the first time that I remember in years he's suggesting a serious pull back. Put 50% into cash, 30% into bonds, and 20% into a couple of stock funds.

I can see the market falling for a while but I'm hesitant to do so because I feel I screwed up and bailed late in the 08 crash and didn't get in fast enough back on the way up. For context I'm 48 so have at least another 15 years plus to retirement.
Click to expand...
I feel like it's too late to bail. Chances are you would miss getting back in at the right time.
Click to expand...
Exactly. I do some risky stuff, but that a game I won't even think about playing right now. Instead, I'm making budget cuts, pinching pennies and upping my contribution.
 
bcat01 said:
skol asylum said:
My 401K is awful. YTD down thru yesterday almost 30%. I typically follow a model portfolio from a Fidelity dude. I was doing a Global Quant aggressive growth type mix but switched it up a few weeks back to his regular Growth funds mix.

For the first time that I remember in years he's suggesting a serious pull back. Put 50% into cash, 30% into bonds, and 20% into a couple of stock funds.

I can see the market falling for a while but I'm hesitant to do so because I feel I screwed up and bailed late in the 08 crash and didn't get in fast enough back on the way up. For context I'm 48 so have at least another 15 years plus to retirement.
Click to expand...
I feel like it's too late to bail. Chances are you would miss getting back in at the right time.
Click to expand...
The old trying to time the market error.
 
Last edited:
skol asylum said:
My 401K is awful. YTD down thru yesterday almost 30%. I typically follow a model portfolio from a Fidelity dude. I was doing a Global Quant aggressive growth type mix but switched it up a few weeks back to his regular Growth funds mix.

For the first time that I remember in years he's suggesting a serious pull back. Put 50% into cash, 30% into bonds, and 20% into a couple of stock funds.

I can see the market falling for a while but I'm hesitant to do so because I feel I screwed up and bailed late in the 08 crash and didn't get in fast enough back on the way up. For context I'm 48 so have at least another 15 years plus to retirement.
Click to expand...

If you didn't sell earlier there is no point in selling now unless you currently need the money... My $.02
 
humpback said:
fruity pebbles said:
skol asylum said:
My 401K is awful. YTD down thru yesterday almost 30%. I typically follow a model portfolio from a Fidelity dude. I was doing a Global Quant aggressive growth type mix but switched it up a few weeks back to his regular Growth funds mix.

For the first time that I remember in years he's suggesting a serious pull back. Put 50% into cash, 30% into bonds, and 20% into a couple of stock funds.

I can see the market falling for a while but I'm hesitant to do so because I feel I screwed up and bailed late in the 08 crash and didn't get in fast enough back on the way up. For context I'm 48 so have at least another 15 years plus to retirement.
Click to expand...
He’s a little late in the game to be going 20% stocks now. I mean we’re already down over 33% on the Nasdaq.
Click to expand...
Sure, from all-time highs when we had still had zero interest rates. It's still up ~36% over the last 3 years, and conditions have deteriorated immensely.
Click to expand...
Hey I get it. I said awhile ago I think we hit 3400. Actually think a little lower than that now, foot to fire. That said, make that call when we’re at 4500, not 3600.
 
Inari worked out well for some of you over the last couple years.

OPSSF is another one to consider. Recent FDA approval, first case done today, full launch soon. I know firsthand OpSens has immediate support/usage/sales in at least a couple of the largest TAVR CVOR's and cath labs in Texas.

I bought a couple thousand shares. 🚀
 
That summer rally was the worst thing that could have happened. Meme stocks went up immediately, the Cathy Wood crap immediately jumped way up. Keep trying to relive 2021 and Powell is going to whack your little head over and over again.
 
Schmeabs said:
I am buying 6 month CDs at 4% today for clients with money market they don't need liquidity. 1 year is 4.20%. Not a huge increase in yield to go out another 6 months and Fed likely raising more this year.
Click to expand...
Fidelity had 9 month ones at 4% and I grabbed a pile of those. If rates keep going up I have enough bond allocated monies (currently in BIL) that I can hit it one more time. Thanks to you and DP for the good words.
 
fruity pebbles said:
humpback said:
fruity pebbles said:
skol asylum said:
My 401K is awful. YTD down thru yesterday almost 30%. I typically follow a model portfolio from a Fidelity dude. I was doing a Global Quant aggressive growth type mix but switched it up a few weeks back to his regular Growth funds mix.

For the first time that I remember in years he's suggesting a serious pull back. Put 50% into cash, 30% into bonds, and 20% into a couple of stock funds.

I can see the market falling for a while but I'm hesitant to do so because I feel I screwed up and bailed late in the 08 crash and didn't get in fast enough back on the way up. For context I'm 48 so have at least another 15 years plus to retirement.
Click to expand...
He’s a little late in the game to be going 20% stocks now. I mean we’re already down over 33% on the Nasdaq.
Click to expand...
Sure, from all-time highs when we had still had zero interest rates. It's still up ~36% over the last 3 years, and conditions have deteriorated immensely.
Click to expand...
Hey I get it. I said awhile ago I think we hit 3400. Actually think a little lower than that now, foot to fire. That said, make that call when we’re at 4500, not 3600.
Click to expand...
I have no idea who he's talking about or when he made his call(s) but it's not important. It doesn't really matter how far we are from the "highs", what matters is where we're headed and he's obviously predicting that we're going lower from here (or from wherever we were when he made the call). Entirely possible that he's right.

Making decisions based on where things were in the past is very risky. Look how many people have been losing their shirts buying tech stocks the entire way down- they would have been much better off selling down 30% than holding down 75%.
 
humpback said:
fruity pebbles said:
humpback said:
fruity pebbles said:
skol asylum said:
My 401K is awful. YTD down thru yesterday almost 30%. I typically follow a model portfolio from a Fidelity dude. I was doing a Global Quant aggressive growth type mix but switched it up a few weeks back to his regular Growth funds mix.

For the first time that I remember in years he's suggesting a serious pull back. Put 50% into cash, 30% into bonds, and 20% into a couple of stock funds.

I can see the market falling for a while but I'm hesitant to do so because I feel I screwed up and bailed late in the 08 crash and didn't get in fast enough back on the way up. For context I'm 48 so have at least another 15 years plus to retirement.
Click to expand...
He’s a little late in the game to be going 20% stocks now. I mean we’re already down over 33% on the Nasdaq.
Click to expand...
Sure, from all-time highs when we had still had zero interest rates. It's still up ~36% over the last 3 years, and conditions have deteriorated immensely.
Click to expand...
Hey I get it. I said awhile ago I think we hit 3400. Actually think a little lower than that now, foot to fire. That said, make that call when we’re at 4500, not 3600.
Click to expand...
I have no idea who he's talking about or when he made his call(s) but it's not important. It doesn't really matter how far we are from the "highs", what matters is where we're headed and he's obviously predicting that we're going lower from here (or from wherever we were when he made the call). Entirely possible that he's right.

Making decisions based on where things were in the past is very risky. Look how many people have been losing their shirts buying tech stocks the entire way down- they would have been much better off selling down 30% than holding down 75%.
Click to expand...
Only if you get back in near the bottom. Nobody rings a bell when the bottoms in and the initial rally off the bottom is usually a powerful one. That’s most investors issue in trying to time things. It’s usually not the selling, its the buying back in. Most ended up buying back higher than they sold for.
 
Here comes a folly of a post: We just hit the second of the double-bottom when the S&P was at 3647 earlier this afternoon. That's within single-digits of the June bottom. It's supposed to go up now, right?
 
fruity pebbles said:
humpback said:
fruity pebbles said:
humpback said:
fruity pebbles said:
skol asylum said:
My 401K is awful. YTD down thru yesterday almost 30%. I typically follow a model portfolio from a Fidelity dude. I was doing a Global Quant aggressive growth type mix but switched it up a few weeks back to his regular Growth funds mix.

For the first time that I remember in years he's suggesting a serious pull back. Put 50% into cash, 30% into bonds, and 20% into a couple of stock funds.

I can see the market falling for a while but I'm hesitant to do so because I feel I screwed up and bailed late in the 08 crash and didn't get in fast enough back on the way up. For context I'm 48 so have at least another 15 years plus to retirement.
Click to expand...
He’s a little late in the game to be going 20% stocks now. I mean we’re already down over 33% on the Nasdaq.
Click to expand...
Sure, from all-time highs when we had still had zero interest rates. It's still up ~36% over the last 3 years, and conditions have deteriorated immensely.
Click to expand...
Hey I get it. I said awhile ago I think we hit 3400. Actually think a little lower than that now, foot to fire. That said, make that call when we’re at 4500, not 3600.
Click to expand...
I have no idea who he's talking about or when he made his call(s) but it's not important. It doesn't really matter how far we are from the "highs", what matters is where we're headed and he's obviously predicting that we're going lower from here (or from wherever we were when he made the call). Entirely possible that he's right.

Making decisions based on where things were in the past is very risky. Look how many people have been losing their shirts buying tech stocks the entire way down- they would have been much better off selling down 30% than holding down 75%.
Click to expand...
Only if you get back in near the bottom. Nobody rings a bell when the bottoms in and the initial rally off the bottom is usually a powerful one. That’s most investors issue in trying to time things. It’s usually not the selling, its the buying back in. Most ended up buying back higher than they sold for.
Click to expand...
Not necessarily true. If you sold SHOP (or dozens of other names) down 30% and bought back down 60% you still saved yourself a ton of $ despite not selling close to the top nor buying close to the bottom. With moves this large you only have to capture a portion of it for it to work out.

The point is, being down from the highs doesn't mean it can't go much lower. It's premature to say it's too late to be cautious here, although obviously earlier this year would have been better.
 
How much are you down for the year? Seemed like a good time to look since we’re back at the June lows.

Me? -4.7%
Before you say that’s great, I’ve only been 30% in stocks since probably around the beginning of 2021 so I’ve missed much of the run leading up to this. Bonds have actually killed me as much as stocks. Also did a little trading around short term highs this year and have gradually been increasing my stock exposure as we head down. Currently, as of yesterdays close, I’m 55% in stocks.
 
beef said:
^VIX watching, hit 29 this morning.

Over the past year, every time the VIX has hit 29 (could say 28's) it's continued into or hit 31's within a few days. Last peaks were 36, 34, 34 ranges all within a week or so range of that 29 hit. Even if it trends back into the 28's-27's today or early next week I wouldn't trust it.
Click to expand...
Hit 32 Friday and back at it again today. Market seems to want to push this higher yet.
 
fruity pebbles said:
How much are you down for the year? Seemed like a good time to look since we’re back at the June lows.

Me? -4.7%
Before you say that’s great, I’ve only been 30% in stocks since probably around the beginning of 2021 so I’ve missed much of the run leading up to this. Bonds have actually killed me as much as stocks. Also did a little trading around short term highs this year and have gradually been increasing my stock exposure as we head down. Currently, as of yesterdays close, I’m 55% in stocks.
Click to expand...

I have DAYS where I'm down 4.7%, lol. Probably ~50%ish on the year as I'm pretty tech heavy.

401k is better as it's just mutual funds that copy SPY/QQQ/IWM/etc
 
FreeBaGeL said:
fruity pebbles said:
How much are you down for the year? Seemed like a good time to look since we’re back at the June lows.

Me? -4.7%
Before you say that’s great, I’ve only been 30% in stocks since probably around the beginning of 2021 so I’ve missed much of the run leading up to this. Bonds have actually killed me as much as stocks. Also did a little trading around short term highs this year and have gradually been increasing my stock exposure as we head down. Currently, as of yesterdays close, I’m 55% in stocks.
Click to expand...

I have DAYS where I'm down 4.7%, lol. Probably ~50%ish on the year as I'm pretty tech heavy.

401k is better as it's just mutual funds that copy SPY/QQQ/IWM/etc
Click to expand...
I've had double digit % loss days with my play money. Heavy in 3x'ers. Also had some double digit % plus days too when NRGU was going nuts. Been more crazy this year than in 2020.
 
To add something useful to this thread instead of schtick, here is a good article on interest rates from Nomura:

Nomura Hikes Fed 'Terminal Rate' Forecast, Warns "Everything Else Is An Emerging Market" | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

In particular their rate rise expectation plateauing at 5.25% is very concerning. Dalio believes anything above 4.5% will be very destructive to the markets and the economy. On the positive side, it may be that next spring is the perfect time to buy long bonds.
 
BassNBrew said:
What's the news on $FLGT?

Fwd P/E (NTM) -245.14

CEO blow everything on blow and hookers?
Click to expand...
No idea. Yahoo finance doesn’t show anything crazy like that but there are only 2 analysts on their page so who knows. There’s probably a low earnings in the future assuming all COVID testing is gone and it’s back to a normal growth company without the huge earnings. Honestly, I feel like we’ll need them to just get COVID and just have the core testing revenue stream. Everything looks like such large decreases because they made so much money on COVID. It was a great thing for the future, like someone handing them a free $1B in cash but in a down market like this people can’t take out the COVID revenue.
 
stbugs said:
BassNBrew said:
What's the news on $FLGT?

Fwd P/E (NTM) -245.14

CEO blow everything on blow and hookers?
Click to expand...
No idea. Yahoo finance doesn’t show anything crazy like that but there are only 2 analysts on their page so who knows. There’s probably a low earnings in the future assuming all COVID testing is gone and it’s back to a normal growth company without the huge earnings. Honestly, I feel like we’ll need them to just get COVID and just have the core testing revenue stream. Everything looks like such large decreases because they made so much money on COVID. It was a great thing for the future, like someone handing them a free $1B in cash but in a down market like this people can’t take out the COVID revenue.
Click to expand...
I honestly can’t think of any way they could have handled COVID, the subsequent cash influx, and acquisitions any better. They managed to be cautious and opportunistic at the same time. I’ve actually stopped selling covered calls on them because I’m afraid they’ll get bought at a premium higher than the call I’d sell. Perfectly happy to be patient with them.
 
McBokonon said:
stbugs said:
BassNBrew said:
What's the news on $FLGT?

Fwd P/E (NTM) -245.14

CEO blow everything on blow and hookers?
Click to expand...
No idea. Yahoo finance doesn’t show anything crazy like that but there are only 2 analysts on their page so who knows. There’s probably a low earnings in the future assuming all COVID testing is gone and it’s back to a normal growth company without the huge earnings. Honestly, I feel like we’ll need them to just get COVID and just have the core testing revenue stream. Everything looks like such large decreases because they made so much money on COVID. It was a great thing for the future, like someone handing them a free $1B in cash but in a down market like this people can’t take out the COVID revenue.
Click to expand...
I honestly can’t think of any way they could have handled COVID, the subsequent cash influx, and acquisitions any better. They managed to be cautious and opportunistic at the same time. I’ve actually stopped selling covered calls on them because I’m afraid they’ll get bought at a premium higher than the call I’d sell. Perfectly happy to be patient with them.
Click to expand...
Me too. I just think it’s impossible for them to break it out any better. It’s a tough stock market the last year so their numbers look like they are declining. Not much you can do besides wait. I was really impressed at the way they pivoted and took advantage of that opportunity and made some partnerships and acquisitions. I’ve got a decent amount but I may add some more. I’m just sitting tight for a bit not knowing where we head.
 
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