Desert_Power
Footballguy
Love the thoughts Todem.
The very good "Thoughts on the Market" podcast from MS keeps making this point. The risks of a substantial slowdown in the US are ahead of us. It isn't happening in the data to date.
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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
The very good "Thoughts on the Market" podcast from MS keeps making this point. The risks of a substantial slowdown in the US are ahead of us. It isn't happening in the data to date.
Todem
Footballguy
Long term hold in retirement accounts. In taxable accounts….consider using it as a tax loss harvest sale against gains and buy it back after 31 days. Then you can reset the cost basis on a large winner without paying capitol gains on it.
Long term I still think the stock will do well but what is your cost basis? Because it may be a very long time before it even returns to your original cost basis and of course depending how high you bought it….never. So at some point you may want to cut bait and swallow a more acceptable loss and redeploy the capital elsewhere to make it back.
Really all depends how far down you are to give a better assessment.
Capella
Footballguy
Thanks. Cost basis at 550 now.
Capella
Footballguy
Yes 55 post split. Bought in earlier this year when it took a huge haircut off the November price.
Thanks buddy, appreciate it.
Todem
Footballguy
People also need to understand that the Federal Reserve can only do so much.
Supply shocks, War, Political policy....they don’t have any control over that.
So.......it is about the natural order of supply and demand, supply chains, war ending all of that will play a part. There is far too much focus (and that is because of all the insane amount of political garbage heard on social media and the airwaves) on what is the Fed doing!! Its all their fault!!!
It’s not.
They absolutely bear some blame.....but not nearly all of it. They had no idea the world economy would be shutdown due to a virus nor the Russians invading Ukraine.
What they did not have though was much leeway when the pandemic hit because they stayed low for too long and this was talked about so many times by a lot of us.....2018 we were headed to a normalized monetary policy......and then the former President politicized the Fed.....screaming for negative interest rates at one point...to keep the only thing he had going for him......The robust Stock Market. In 2018 the S&P 500 dropped 28% peak to trough.....bottomed on Christmas Eve. And then rallied so hard over the next week it was insane.
So again keep in mind.....14 years since we have seen a potential double digit loss on the S&P 500 for a calendar year. 14 years.
Relax. Things will get better sooner than you think.
Supply shocks, War, Political policy....they don’t have any control over that.
So.......it is about the natural order of supply and demand, supply chains, war ending all of that will play a part. There is far too much focus (and that is because of all the insane amount of political garbage heard on social media and the airwaves) on what is the Fed doing!! Its all their fault!!!
It’s not.
They absolutely bear some blame.....but not nearly all of it. They had no idea the world economy would be shutdown due to a virus nor the Russians invading Ukraine.
What they did not have though was much leeway when the pandemic hit because they stayed low for too long and this was talked about so many times by a lot of us.....2018 we were headed to a normalized monetary policy......and then the former President politicized the Fed.....screaming for negative interest rates at one point...to keep the only thing he had going for him......The robust Stock Market. In 2018 the S&P 500 dropped 28% peak to trough.....bottomed on Christmas Eve. And then rallied so hard over the next week it was insane.
So again keep in mind.....14 years since we have seen a potential double digit loss on the S&P 500 for a calendar year. 14 years.
Relax. Things will get better sooner than you think.
Not I have this correct but what the fed is doing is only a partial answer to combating inflation. The bigger underlying drivers, which the fed can’t impact, are energy costs, supply chain issues and cost of labor. Demand may drop fixing some supply chain problems. Bottom line, I don’t see inflation going away anytime soon.
Genxersrule
Footballguy
Great post. Thanks
Todem
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I have switched stances somewhat. I just don't see any way for a soft landing on inflation. Earnings have stayed strong because companies are able to keep charging more and more, blame it on inflation, and everyone is willing to pay it. People complain about the economy on facebook, but most people are doing really well right now and would rather spend more money than change their extravagant habits.
Kroger stock is flat this year, while the entire market has gotten smashed. Why? Well the kroger branded grocery store here is by far the most expensive (and the nicest). But it's still PACKED every day relative to the cheaper grocery stores around the corner. Yeah, people will go on Facebook and complain about $5.99 bread, but they're not actually going to shop at Walmart Neighborhood Market or A Fresh Market where you can get the same thing for $2.50 less.
Discretionary spending is still ridiculous. I just went to buy our ski passes for the year. $4500 for 2 adults and 2 kids. Five years ago it was $1500 and the mountain was empty. Now it's $4500 and they had to build 3 new parking lots and a bus system from the parking to get enough parking spots for everyone. A day ticket used to be $40 and you could ski straight onto the lift. Now it's $155 and the lift line is a quarter mile long. Visitation is up 3000% even as prices are up 300%. WHERE IS EVERYONE GETTING ALL THIS EXTRA MONEY?
I made a post a month or so ago about our trip to SD. Beach parking $40 (was $10 last year), and the lot was FULL, as in they had no more spots available. People say on Facebook that they're "feeling the squeeze", but not feeling the squeeze enough to walk a block to save 40 bucks. Padres tickets, middle of the season, $120/ea and sold out stadium. Half empty by the 7th inning.
Yeah people will post about how bad things are on Facebook, but not so bad that they're not willing to drop $800 bucks on a family outing to the ballpark on a random Saturday and not even bother to stay long enough to see who wins.
Everyone just has more money than they know what to do with.
So yeah, in my probably wrong estimation, there's just no way to maintain strong earnings and ease inflation significantly. Either everyone stays rich, keeps spending, and earnings stay up but inflation persists. Or everyone REALLY feels the squeeze, stops spending on stuff, and earnings suffer because of it.
Raising interest rates isn't really doing anything other than slowing the housing market's growth. Rates are up, energy costs are down, inflation remains high. Because people have too much money to spend.
There's just no way inflation is going to slow until people start losing their jobs and they have to actually stop spending $250 extra every month by shopping at Kroger because they like the free samples, and they have to stop just deciding on a whim to go spend $700 on a family day doing moderately fun stuff that they don't even like that much. Capitalism says companies keep raising prices as much as the market will bear, and right now the market has shown zero inkling of not being willing to pay higher prices. The only way for that to change is for people to actually start getting into dire straits, losing their jobs, spending less (reducing earnings), etc.
Kroger stock is flat this year, while the entire market has gotten smashed. Why? Well the kroger branded grocery store here is by far the most expensive (and the nicest). But it's still PACKED every day relative to the cheaper grocery stores around the corner. Yeah, people will go on Facebook and complain about $5.99 bread, but they're not actually going to shop at Walmart Neighborhood Market or A Fresh Market where you can get the same thing for $2.50 less.
Discretionary spending is still ridiculous. I just went to buy our ski passes for the year. $4500 for 2 adults and 2 kids. Five years ago it was $1500 and the mountain was empty. Now it's $4500 and they had to build 3 new parking lots and a bus system from the parking to get enough parking spots for everyone. A day ticket used to be $40 and you could ski straight onto the lift. Now it's $155 and the lift line is a quarter mile long. Visitation is up 3000% even as prices are up 300%. WHERE IS EVERYONE GETTING ALL THIS EXTRA MONEY?
I made a post a month or so ago about our trip to SD. Beach parking $40 (was $10 last year), and the lot was FULL, as in they had no more spots available. People say on Facebook that they're "feeling the squeeze", but not feeling the squeeze enough to walk a block to save 40 bucks. Padres tickets, middle of the season, $120/ea and sold out stadium. Half empty by the 7th inning.
Yeah people will post about how bad things are on Facebook, but not so bad that they're not willing to drop $800 bucks on a family outing to the ballpark on a random Saturday and not even bother to stay long enough to see who wins.
Everyone just has more money than they know what to do with.
So yeah, in my probably wrong estimation, there's just no way to maintain strong earnings and ease inflation significantly. Either everyone stays rich, keeps spending, and earnings stay up but inflation persists. Or everyone REALLY feels the squeeze, stops spending on stuff, and earnings suffer because of it.
Raising interest rates isn't really doing anything other than slowing the housing market's growth. Rates are up, energy costs are down, inflation remains high. Because people have too much money to spend.
There's just no way inflation is going to slow until people start losing their jobs and they have to actually stop spending $250 extra every month by shopping at Kroger because they like the free samples, and they have to stop just deciding on a whim to go spend $700 on a family day doing moderately fun stuff that they don't even like that much. Capitalism says companies keep raising prices as much as the market will bear, and right now the market has shown zero inkling of not being willing to pay higher prices. The only way for that to change is for people to actually start getting into dire straits, losing their jobs, spending less (reducing earnings), etc.
McBokonon
Footballguy
TDOC paid $18.5 billion for Livongo. TDOC’s market cap today is $4.66 billion. (I just get randomly morbidly curious about this every so often.)
Capella
Footballguy
I looked at 3:15 and think Amazon was up a point or so and looked just now and it closed down 3. Just a wild ride, everyday.
beef
Footballguy
I hear you @FreeBaGeL. Prices seem higher to me today than they were last month or the month before, but I still see people shopping and eating out like nothing has changed. I will say that as people used to spend x amount on y number of goods, they still spend x amount, but the y number of goods is trending way down.
People aren't going to stop spending, but they won't be spending as much on as many unnecessary items. Maybe time to buy some consumer staples on the low and ride them through the 2023-2025 recession.
Then we have credit card data that says balances and debt are going way up. As soon as those get maxed there will be some very hard landings for folks.
People aren't going to stop spending, but they won't be spending as much on as many unnecessary items. Maybe time to buy some consumer staples on the low and ride them through the 2023-2025 recession.
Then we have credit card data that says balances and debt are going way up. As soon as those get maxed there will be some very hard landings for folks.
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ahem. (i know you weren't being literal)
I think I honestly know why consumer spending is still crazy. We’ve heard so much about people not wanting to wait until they are retired to enjoy life. The whole work life balance. I’d bet that retirement savings is really low right now. We’ve seen credit card debt flying up so I think we are just hitting a WGAF stage to spending. If you don’t have a second home with boats and jet skis, you aren’t enjoying yourself enough and I think people are just spending more like paycheck to paycheck rather than save. I do think the COVID free tax money and tight labor market did create a lot of excess cash but the job market has slowed as has the house market has as well. I’ve got anecdotal stories about people dipping into 401ks to fund for a second home.
I could be wrong and everyone is just rich now but I don’t think so. I think everyone is living their best life and they’ll hit reality down the road.
I could be wrong and everyone is just rich now but I don’t think so. I think everyone is living their best life and they’ll hit reality down the road.
Capella
Footballguy
I don’t think this is true, as beef alluded to people are just putting more on credit.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Good points. Could also just be the psychology of people just wanting to buy things because it makes them feel good.
The last two years have been a hard, hard drain on people. In all aspects of life. Financially, mentally, emotionally...all of it. People are tired of being tired. They are tired of being burned out. I know I am.
I think people just want to have some fun. Spending money allows them to feel some joy amidst all the pain they've endured.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
This market is not based on logic.
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Didn’t Putin announce his plans to mobilize 300,000 additional troops to Ukraine (and threaten nuclear attacks) around this same time? I’m guessing that probably had some negative impact to the markets too.
Pretty sure that was first thing this morning.
I assumed that the post-hike comments were more pessimistic than the market wanted to hear.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I stopped posting my trades since it doesn't seem of much interest to anyone.
However, yesterday afternoon I purchased 200 UCO at $29.93 but my TD account shows it was a cost of $31.21. The trade confirmation confirms $29.93.
I sent a ticket in but any idea why and how this could happen?
However, yesterday afternoon I purchased 200 UCO at $29.93 but my TD account shows it was a cost of $31.21. The trade confirmation confirms $29.93.
I sent a ticket in but any idea why and how this could happen?
Capella
Footballguy
I liked seeing somebody post the rare stock market win this year
Yeah, this isn't rocket surgery. The market keeps hoping for and pricing in softening rhetoric out of the Fed, and every time it tanks when he makes it crystal clear that he's staying hawkish. The conversation is around whether the market should "believe" the Fed- if/when it finally does, we'll probably finally stop tanking after these things, although we'll also probably already be at new lows.
beef
Footballguy
Wash sale adjustment?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This is what I was thinking as well.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Thanks fellas. I guess I never noticed before.
Agree with you too @FreeBaGeL on where all of this money is coming from?!! Apparently everyone that lives around me knows where there's a forest of trees that grows $100 bills.
dschuler
Footballguy
I’m a terrible trader and people should take the inverse of my opinion. But I did buy some manage to flip some SPY options right after the FED meeting dip and then sold them on the rip. Not often I get a pump fake right. I am concerned growing forward. The Russell 2000 is down 30% from the November highs and all the markets look to retest 52 week lows. Historically small cap has preceded large caps on the Dow. My gut tells me the sell off will continue. I think we see a dead cat bounce after the mid terms, but expect the Dow to retrace the Jan 2020 lows of 28000. Just my opinion, and it’s most likely incorrect.
A few stocks I think are high risk but could be a big multi bagger
Tech/Media/Streaming - $FUBO $RUM
Agriculture - $SMG
A few stocks I think are high risk but could be a big multi bagger
Tech/Media/Streaming - $FUBO $RUM
Agriculture - $SMG
McBokonon
Footballguy
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
remember the good ol' days when on a day like this you were salivating to make a quick buck on the rebound for all those double digit red mid-cap and small-cal stocks because you knew there was such a thing as overreaction and you just knew stonks always go up eventually? yea i miss that.
Sand
Footballguy
Fed is fighting an uphill battle with the govt. spigot still wide open. Not making this political, so won't comment there, but no doubt that the spending continues unabated and is cancelling out the fed tightening.
Todem - what do you think about USTs right now? I have a pile of cash (best investment this year!) that is in my bond allocation, so not buying equities with it. 1 Year is at 4.15% ad I'm seriously considering buying a pile. Would you have any reservations here?
I am buying 6 month CDs at 4% today for clients with money market they don't need liquidity. 1 year is 4.20%. Not a huge increase in yield to go out another 6 months and Fed likely raising more this year.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I've bought $10k worth of split between ~4M and ~11M to maturity treasuries this week and may buy more. Unless you really think the Fed is going to get drastically more aggressive from here, not sure the risk. Even then, a fixed return greater than my mortgage is always nice.
Capella
Footballguy
Sounds good right about now. 10k max?
Sand
Footballguy
10k max per person (so 20k for you and wife). If you want to stuff the box you can play the gift game between you and your spouse. There's a Bogleheads thread on that. I stuffed the box through 2025 for some of my bond allocation.
Alien Fantasy
Footballguy
Friday is likely the last day for cheap rocket tickets (GME). Gamestop is about to announce its involvement with Kiraverse. Own your assets. Web 3 gaming is here.
Capella
Footballguy
You just made this word up
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
I'm thinking about liquidating my VANGUARD REAL ESTATE INDEX ETF position to fill my 2022 i-bonds purchase for myself and wife. Total gains (long only) is $418, so tax hit is insignificant. I don't see real estate doing anything for a while with rates continuing to go up.
Am I wrong with my logic? Anyone?
Sand
Footballguy
The future is unknowable from that point of view. I tend to think that when the market senses that hikes are easing off that equity like items will take off. But that could be next month or 2024.
So a definite yes/no/maybe from me.
I'm more of the mindset that we'll stop the bleeding once the market senses that, but not seeing any reason for it to start any kind of huge turnaround. Why do you think equities will take off?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Time to buy Stuff yet?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Last chance before the GME rocket (from what I hear).
