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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Okay...but inflation is bad...but companies have record earnings due to inflation...so, capitalism?
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Pushed some cash in to Nasdaq and S&P index funds today. Waiting for a 401K rollover in the next week or so which will give me some more funds in my Roth (stock picking) account, looking forward to loading up on some more master list tickers.
kevzilla
Footballguy
My entry into AFMJF may have been clumsy, but I'm pleased with how I got the rest in. Up 11% today on air and it's green again. Where you at @General Malaise ?
stinkzmagee
Footballguy
Really not enjoying the fact that after losing boatloads in speculative stocks, I bought what I considered safer investments over the last 3-6 months which have also done pretty poorly…. MO, T, INTC, META, UL, LYB.
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Probably. It’s annoying that their results are affecting Amazon more than other retailers. Other retailers have a **** ton more on the line if shipments are slowing down since that’s their bread and butter. Amazon’s bread and butter/profit stars aren’t retail but they do deliver a lot of stuff. Oh well, 5-10 year horizon and keep DCAing for the next run.
Alien Fantasy
Footballguy
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Seriously...FedEx can sink the entire market? What are we even doing here.
dschuler
Footballguy
I think this is still more with the inflation data going into the weekend. Some banks are also now predicting a 100 point rate hike, higher than the 75 point consensus. Previous times with a 100 point rate hike resulted in the S&P dropping another 2.5% the following month. You start zooming out of some of these graphs and it looks like the downtrends are intact and we are about to retest a lot of 52 week lows.
beef
Footballguy
I can somewhat understand this drop from the FedEx scare since they're involved in so much commerce all around the World. But still, seems way over reactionary again but that's what this current market wants to do.
I'd laugh my *** off if FedEx announced a buyback before the end of the year to capture these two-year lows.
I'd laugh my *** off if FedEx announced a buyback before the end of the year to capture these two-year lows.
FedEx certainly has their finger on the pulse much more than say Snapchat.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Market was going down anyway. That weak bounce after the 5% down day already looked like another big down day (likely several) to follow.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Crying in my beer.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So what happened with FedEx and why is that causing a downswing?
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Weekend starts early on the west coast?
Remind me what this play is about again. Ah, I guess it is tin
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General Malaise
Footballguy
Oh, I'm just getting obliterated in everything, tin, tech, retail, gaming you know name it, I'm the personal hand puppet getting pooper punched day in and day out. I'm not drinking yet, but at 1pm, my dog and I are going to the liquor store and then disc golf to forget about life for an hour or two. Ugh.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Yeah. Been a rough year. Finally put some cash in for the first time in a few weeks today.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
They are going to miss profits considerably and they are viewed as a leading indicator for the overall global economy. I think some of their issues could be due to Amazon and it's logistics move to self-deliver but I have no idea if that is true let alone how much.
Investors are spooked overall, so any bad news from a major company is going to cause a knee jerk reaction.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
I think it's more that FedEx is just a terribly run company. This is causing a great buying opportunity for UPS!
drunken slob
Footballguy
I ship stuff all over this planet. Fed Ex sucks.
When I have to do TL/LTL shipping, I avoid them, even if the rate is better than every other carrier. You want your stuff tore up, lost or sent to the wrong hub thus delaying delivery, that's your carrier.
Ground service for domestic business (I don't do residential) on the other hand is reasonable. The international side is trash.
Residential, I will do everything in my power not to use them if I buy a product online.
They move a lot of stuff so I won't dismiss this drop based on their current situation. The holiday season approaches. We're about to find out just how good all the carriers are.
Sidenote: Since I deal with so many different transportation companies, I've done screens for the carriers for years now. I've never believed that the prices the freight companies have traded at were good, always to expensive in my opinion. Not only that, most of them don't pay dividends. Eff that whole sector
When I have to do TL/LTL shipping, I avoid them, even if the rate is better than every other carrier. You want your stuff tore up, lost or sent to the wrong hub thus delaying delivery, that's your carrier.
Ground service for domestic business (I don't do residential) on the other hand is reasonable. The international side is trash.
Residential, I will do everything in my power not to use them if I buy a product online.
They move a lot of stuff so I won't dismiss this drop based on their current situation. The holiday season approaches. We're about to find out just how good all the carriers are.
Sidenote: Since I deal with so many different transportation companies, I've done screens for the carriers for years now. I've never believed that the prices the freight companies have traded at were good, always to expensive in my opinion. Not only that, most of them don't pay dividends. Eff that whole sector
McBokonon
Footballguy
I agree with this a little. Sometimes it’s important to recognize poor management no matter how “blue chip” a stock seems. I’ve been trying to pound this message home on T and, to a lesser extent, INTC and BA. FDX has been lagging awhile, too. Sometimes these companies get better leadership and turn around like Microsoft, and some turn into GE. Wait for the bad leadership to leave before thinking about some of these “blue chips.” And I mean more than changing CEO’s. If senior leadership outside of that largely remains the same, they’ll still probably act dumb.
stinkzmagee
Footballguy
If it makes you feel any better I’m in the same boat. Absolutely murdered over the last year+.
rockaction
Footballguy
On one hand, I don't know much about financial systems, information, etc., so I'm the lay of the layperson. I love that somebody is taking the piss out of what appears to be Congressional members' insider trading status. Bravo!
Capella
Footballguy
Tough year man. It’ll get better eventually. I think.
ren hoek
Footballguy
It is certainly an unfortunate punchline for us. I'd love to know how this index would have performed the past 10-20 years.
Capella
Footballguy
Remember seeing these in that December swoon 4-5 years ago and daily during the early Covid stretch in 2020.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Fed stepped in and saved the day both of those times. Doesn't seem like they'll be doing the same this time, at least for a while.
Capella
Footballguy
They will before 16 years passes by
Yep. Still kind of amazed how many people don't seem to appreciate the degree/magnitude of the shift in policies.
Capella
Footballguy
Right. Things have changed. I think we all get that. Which is why we won’t be drifting in the wilderness for a decade. Because things change.
culdeus
Footballguy
It's hardly ever talked about, but after what would have been typical fees and inflation at the time in what were typical options, the market was more or less flat from 2000 to 2012.
Anyone entering the workforce in 2000 had low 401k maxes and if married paid a **** ton of tax in the marriage penalty and 6% was a typical mortgage.
There really wasn't a breakout from that trading range until globalization took hold with China middle class developing bigly. As it turned out that might not have been great for the planet.
I don't think you do get it, at least not the size and scope of the changes. This isn't a run-of-the-mill tightening cycle, It's unlike anything we've ever experienced.
He isn't suggesting that the market isn't going to move (there will be plenty of ups and downs), just suggesting that we may well end up in roughly the same spot a decade from now. Sure, it's a bold call, but certainly not out of the realm of possibilities.
Yep. And that flatish period came after a huge run up in the markets, not unlike what we've had since that period ended.
drunken slob
Footballguy
There's nowhere to go in this market right now.
Energy, outside of silly pink sheets, is up and won't come down regardless of the election.
Example: bought 50 shares of $JOAN before the ex-div @ $7 per share.
Start looking around
Energy, outside of silly pink sheets, is up and won't come down regardless of the election.
Example: bought 50 shares of $JOAN before the ex-div @ $7 per share.
Start looking around
drunken slob
Footballguy
Also got some $ACCO before the ex date last month. You got a calendar? ACCO probably made it
beef
Footballguy
Chamath SPACs (per CNBC this morning):
Virgin Galactic, paid $16,667 for 10.5M shares
Open Door, paid $15,110 for 6.28M shares
Clover Heath. paid $20,386 for 16.9M shares
SoFi, paid $18,650 for 14.9M shares
Damn, what a f'n scam. Have to agree with Cramer's reference to this being like PT Barnum. I got in a lot of SPACs. Did good if I played them short term only. Ones I held onto a while got rough.
Virgin Galactic, paid $16,667 for 10.5M shares
Open Door, paid $15,110 for 6.28M shares
Clover Heath. paid $20,386 for 16.9M shares
SoFi, paid $18,650 for 14.9M shares
Damn, what a f'n scam. Have to agree with Cramer's reference to this being like PT Barnum. I got in a lot of SPACs. Did good if I played them short term only. Ones I held onto a while got rough.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Seems like a very good time to buy treasury bills/off the run notes IMOThere's nowhere to go in this market right now.
Energy, outside of silly pink sheets, is up and won't come down regardless of the election.
Example: bought 50 shares of $JOAN before the ex-div @ $7 per share.
Start looking around
Todem
Footballguy
Market is expecting .75 tomorrow.
If there is any hint to walking back rates at some point once they get any clarity on inflation receding.....buckle up.
If they come in tomorrow with only a .50 basis point hike....buckle up (highly unlikely).
If they give clear guidance on .75 tomorrow, then .25 then pause......buckle up.
This is all short term stuff we are talking about.
So let’s talk about what I think will happen.....and honestly who knows LOL. .75 raise tomorrow same hawkish talk, market conintuescontinues to bleed some more thru October.
Mid Terms happen......Republicans win back the House, Democrats maintain the Senate. Market has a nice year end rally and we most likely end where we were in July.
2023 the focus is on total return, value, dividends and repositioning portfolio’s to a more value slant. However I will never not have growth. Also we have been nibbling back into fixed income here and I intend to really rebalance again in December and add high yield short end of the curve corporates, High Yield Muni and Intermediate Munis. Bonds have been whacked....and it was a long time coming with zero interest rates for 14 years.
Speaking of 14 years.....this is going to be easily the worst year we have had in the last 14. The last time I saw returns (lack of returns and actually negative) was 2008. So I don’t think anyone who is along term investor should lose perspective to the run we have had since 2009. It has been a great one. This year we gave back 2021 thus far. We still have a hair over 3 months left.
Again.....take a breath....it’s not as bad as you think if you have been in the market for along time. Not bad at all. And it was long overdue. I think the biggest mistake made was in 2018 when the former president politicized the Fed when they were raising rates as they needed to.....and because they pivoted....then the Pandemic....well here we are. Roosters are coming home to roost. It has gotten away from them and they are playing catch up......this is historic what they are doing. Economy be damned. I always felt they would pump the brakes....well they are essentially slamming on them. And a lot of the damage is priced in. What is not priced in just yet is the earnings slowdown.
I am on the more optimistic side that earnings are still growing....just not at the rate the market got accustomed to. Hence the repricing of risk assets, the recalibration of monetary policy. It’s hitting the reset button basically.
I expect 2023 to be a muted year of growth....focus on high quality, great dividends and get ready for a more normalized returns environment for the next cyclical bull market.
2022 sucks. Plain and simple. It happens. When you have been in the market long enough......you know this. New investors are getting their first taste of “it does not go in a straight line” And also the need for diversification. Because I can assure you.....those that are diversified.....are not happy this year. double digit down. 12 13 14%
But not diversified? All the eggs in high multiple tech? They are wiped out....it happens every cycle. People down 35-45-55-60% maybe more because they got on the train late and went all in on high flying tech. This is another tech bust like we saw in 2002.
So again.....sit tight. Keep pouring into your 401K’s, and look for a year end rally to give you chance to trim some higher risk and re-position into more income producing positions as well as maybe even take some profits and buy some Large Tech at much lower prices if you have never own some of those household names like GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and yes META (get ready for this one over the next 5-7 years.....you heard it here).
Sentiment is terrible right now...and no I am not calling a bottom. But a retest of the June low's is most likely gonna happen here very soon and then that’s it unless the economy just flat out tanks....which macro wise.....in the USA is not the case. We are not seeing signs of a collapse. Slow down....yeah already happening and will continue for 6-8 more months easy. Market has already priced in 75% of it....easily. Forward multiples are moving up, asset prices have really come down a lot....so yeah it’s messy......right now. Lot’s of bad things. Crypto collapse.....yeah like we did not see that coming? LMAO. Europe is scary bad......Ukraine War needs to come to a conclusion here and soon....mid terms, then 2024....so much stuff...so much noise. Keep your head down....keep investing folks. Buy good companies, do your research.
Think 3-5-10 years out. You do that.....you sleep at night. Money you need today or next year should never be in the market. Period.
Back to football......peace out.
If there is any hint to walking back rates at some point once they get any clarity on inflation receding.....buckle up.
If they come in tomorrow with only a .50 basis point hike....buckle up (highly unlikely).
If they give clear guidance on .75 tomorrow, then .25 then pause......buckle up.
This is all short term stuff we are talking about.
So let’s talk about what I think will happen.....and honestly who knows LOL. .75 raise tomorrow same hawkish talk, market conintuescontinues to bleed some more thru October.
Mid Terms happen......Republicans win back the House, Democrats maintain the Senate. Market has a nice year end rally and we most likely end where we were in July.
2023 the focus is on total return, value, dividends and repositioning portfolio’s to a more value slant. However I will never not have growth. Also we have been nibbling back into fixed income here and I intend to really rebalance again in December and add high yield short end of the curve corporates, High Yield Muni and Intermediate Munis. Bonds have been whacked....and it was a long time coming with zero interest rates for 14 years.
Speaking of 14 years.....this is going to be easily the worst year we have had in the last 14. The last time I saw returns (lack of returns and actually negative) was 2008. So I don’t think anyone who is along term investor should lose perspective to the run we have had since 2009. It has been a great one. This year we gave back 2021 thus far. We still have a hair over 3 months left.
Again.....take a breath....it’s not as bad as you think if you have been in the market for along time. Not bad at all. And it was long overdue. I think the biggest mistake made was in 2018 when the former president politicized the Fed when they were raising rates as they needed to.....and because they pivoted....then the Pandemic....well here we are. Roosters are coming home to roost. It has gotten away from them and they are playing catch up......this is historic what they are doing. Economy be damned. I always felt they would pump the brakes....well they are essentially slamming on them. And a lot of the damage is priced in. What is not priced in just yet is the earnings slowdown.
I am on the more optimistic side that earnings are still growing....just not at the rate the market got accustomed to. Hence the repricing of risk assets, the recalibration of monetary policy. It’s hitting the reset button basically.
I expect 2023 to be a muted year of growth....focus on high quality, great dividends and get ready for a more normalized returns environment for the next cyclical bull market.
2022 sucks. Plain and simple. It happens. When you have been in the market long enough......you know this. New investors are getting their first taste of “it does not go in a straight line” And also the need for diversification. Because I can assure you.....those that are diversified.....are not happy this year. double digit down. 12 13 14%
But not diversified? All the eggs in high multiple tech? They are wiped out....it happens every cycle. People down 35-45-55-60% maybe more because they got on the train late and went all in on high flying tech. This is another tech bust like we saw in 2002.
So again.....sit tight. Keep pouring into your 401K’s, and look for a year end rally to give you chance to trim some higher risk and re-position into more income producing positions as well as maybe even take some profits and buy some Large Tech at much lower prices if you have never own some of those household names like GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and yes META (get ready for this one over the next 5-7 years.....you heard it here).
Sentiment is terrible right now...and no I am not calling a bottom. But a retest of the June low's is most likely gonna happen here very soon and then that’s it unless the economy just flat out tanks....which macro wise.....in the USA is not the case. We are not seeing signs of a collapse. Slow down....yeah already happening and will continue for 6-8 more months easy. Market has already priced in 75% of it....easily. Forward multiples are moving up, asset prices have really come down a lot....so yeah it’s messy......right now. Lot’s of bad things. Crypto collapse.....yeah like we did not see that coming? LMAO. Europe is scary bad......Ukraine War needs to come to a conclusion here and soon....mid terms, then 2024....so much stuff...so much noise. Keep your head down....keep investing folks. Buy good companies, do your research.
Think 3-5-10 years out. You do that.....you sleep at night. Money you need today or next year should never be in the market. Period.
Back to football......peace out.
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