GoBirds
Footballguy
Go ahead, Santa says grab a few.
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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Intel very, very low and with a ~5.7% dividend. Seems like a no brainer?
That’s what I said when it hit $30
McBokonon
Footballguy
Sometimes companies that used to be good stop being good, permanently. I’m not sure that’s Intel, but I’m not willing to bet it isn’t.
Todem
Footballguy
We own:
JEPI
DIAX
BXMX
QYLD
JEPI is a large value portfolio where as BXMX is a Large core.
All of those pay monthly.
Capella
Footballguy
Amazing Twitter thread on Elon’s call today. What a disaster.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Easy to bag on the guy, but when you look at him building up SpaceX it's pretty darn impressive what he pulled off. Twitter isn't in his wheelhouse - he knows it, but obviously can't opine.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yeah I mean I have no love for Elon, but if you're asking me if it's more likely that he literally said "I'm not going to stop relentlessly attacking transgenders" or if some hardcore political personality that started up a pillow company so he could be the other side's version of Mike Lindell might be embellishing a bit in his "reporting", I think I can probably guess which is more likely.
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Capella
Footballguy
I’ve been a big Tesla stock supporter over the years but he’s losing his mind.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I think you bring up a fair point in regard to margin—but I don’t think those margins are guaranteed. Before I continue—I do want to disclose that I do think that Elon is a wonderful engineer, developer and is clearly a highly intelligent man. With that said—I don’t think that he’s infallible—and I do think that he’s capable of taking missteps—and I think it’s clear that the way he purchased and handled Twitter is a giant example of that.
Back to the margin thing—I think a big headwind for Tesla is that up until very recently—there has been moderately more demand for their vehicles than there was supply. The biggest hurdle Tesla had in a very low/no interest rate landscape was delivering vehicles—and that has changed now. Demand for $50K+ vehicles has dropped in a world with higher interest rates. You couple that with far more options on the market—and Tesla no longer has to focus on supply—but now they have to worry about demand. Tesla is now offering discounts on models because they have a surplus—and that will hurt their margins. The vast majority of Teslas growth happened in a very favorable monetary policy environment. Tons of capital in the system, low interest rates, virtually no competition—and thus was a beneficiary of lots of subsidies. All of these things supported Tesla being traded at insane multiples versus typical auto makers—because people were willing to pay a huge premium for growth and the Elon factor. I think that Elon’s reputation hit might justify a compression of that premium. I also think that the twitter thing could also be a vector to compress that premium. A couple years ago—I would have justified Tesla trading at an insane multiple because I would have argued that in a decade—I’m not sure if Tesla would be considered an automaker first. People forget that Amazon started as an online book seller—and now they are the worlds biggest retailer and one of the biggest Web service providers. Apple was a computer company—and now is a lifestyle brand where people build their lives around its ecosystem. With Tesla (and now with Elon busy with Space x, the boaring company, neurolink, and now Twitter)—I’m not sure how much time and effort he can put into Tesla in regard to making it a transcendental tech company. I‘m not saying that I don’t think it can or will happen—but I do think the past year has certainly raised some doubts about it happening. With that said—I do own some tesla stock—and I do still believe—but my confidence level in Elon and Tesla have come down a bit. I won’t lie about that.
Along those same lines, every time companies that used to be high growth stop being high growth, permanently.
Sand
Footballguy
He's never not been like he is.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Been reading INTC backstory and it's grim. AMD and NVDA are driving the market now. But seems like there's upside. I know some who think the leadership to turn it around is in place, and they have a fabrication competitive advantage. But wow, what a fall.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Shocked the Nasdaq is basically back to yearly lows and the VIX is sitting at 20.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
What are you reading?
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
KGB
Footballguy
I have some insight. It's getting better but I'm not buying yet
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Tesla's dying. Anyone buying yet?
Capella
Footballguy
Maybe another 10% down and I’m in.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Is the thought that Elon is selling parts of his stake off or something?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
He has sold a bunch of it.
There are some other headwinds too, but I think that's a lot of it.
It's interesting to me that it has had as much of an effect as it has. Typically when a CEO sells shares it crushes the stock price because investors read it as the CEO not being confident in the company at its current price. But in this case, we all know why Elon has been selling. It's because he was legally bound to buy Twitter when he didn't really want to, and he has to come up with the money to pay for it.
Obviously a stupid move to get himself in that situation (far from the first dumb move by Elon), but it's not like he's selling his shares because he's concerned that Tesla is going to fall apart, like we might think if say, the CEO of a certain other stock that has its own thread were to do. He's not selling his shares to cash out before the company collapses, he just doesn't have a choice.
Capella
Footballguy
Yup. And he’s a maniac but at some point it becomes value. I’ve spent my entire 2022 buying value though and that’s been fun so we’ll see.
massraider
Footballguy
Tesla offering discounts now, they used to say they cannot keep up with demand.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Elon’s original customer base now largely hates him as well.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
UWMC is awfully bipolar
McBokonon
Footballguy
Not really. It’s been pretty consistently unipolar since it de-SPAC’ed. The CEO just bought the Suns, though, so he’s doing ok.
Capella
Footballguy
Big big problem.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Well, it went up pretty huge when other things didn't. Now down a ton of that
Just sayin
Sand
Footballguy
So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.
Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).
Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).
GoBirds
Footballguy
Are you buying anything right now?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Tesla almost 75% off the high earlier this year. Yeesh. I'll buy some for fun.
I have been buying lately. If we see a recession in 2023 as I suspect TLT should perform very well.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
It was massively overvalued earlier in the year, and is still expensive. It might look cheap compared to where it used to be but it is still not cheap on a valuation basis. I think it still has a ways to fall.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Oh, it was definitely overvalued. It was at godfather pricing in Jan.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
AAPL the last remaining tech soldier. Any doubt it's next to get crushed?
Sand
Footballguy
I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.
KGB
Footballguy
CCL at $7.67.
I like it under 8 and will look to hop in if it gets to 7.25. Just went on its newest ship for 8 days, they have caught up to royal. and hell yeah I went on that roller coaster!
www.carnival.com
I like it under 8 and will look to hop in if it gets to 7.25. Just went on its newest ship for 8 days, they have caught up to royal. and hell yeah I went on that roller coaster!
Carnival Celebration™ | Carnival Cruise Line
Welcome Carnival Celebration, now sailing from Miami. Find out what's new aboard, including onboard rollercoaster BOLT®! Explore photos, deck plans, staterooms and itinerary options. Grab your spot on Carnival Celebration today!
www.carnival.com
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Their debt load and coming recession really worry me. Maybe that’s baked into the price but I don’t know.CCL at $7.67.
I like it under 8 and will look to hop in if it gets to 7.25. Just went on its newest ship for 8 days, they have caught up to royal. and hell yeah I went on that roller coaster!
Carnival Celebration™ | Carnival Cruise Line
Welcome Carnival Celebration, now sailing from Miami. Find out what's new aboard, including onboard rollercoaster BOLT®! Explore photos, deck plans, staterooms and itinerary options. Grab your spot on Carnival Celebration today!
KGB
Footballguy
All I can say is my cruise was fully booked. im not a financial guy.Their debt load and coming recession really worry me. Maybe that’s baked into the price but I don’t know.CCL at $7.67.
I like it under 8 and will look to hop in if it gets to 7.25. Just went on its newest ship for 8 days, they have caught up to royal. and hell yeah I went on that roller coaster!
Carnival Celebration™ | Carnival Cruise Line
Welcome Carnival Celebration, now sailing from Miami. Find out what's new aboard, including onboard rollercoaster BOLT®! Explore photos, deck plans, staterooms and itinerary options. Grab your spot on Carnival Celebration today!
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
Taiwan Semiconductor Starts Mass Production Of 3-Nanometer Chips
Chip foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing plans to start mass production of chips using its 3-nanometer process technology.
www.investors.com
TSMC To Kick Off 3nm Chip Production In the U.S. From Its $12B Arizona Chip Fab - Spiceworks
This is TSMC’s first major venture in the U.S. since the White House signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law in August 2022.
3 nm mass production about to start for TSMC. I didn't know Buffett had invested in them. Might throw some $$ TSM way especially at it's current price.
Meanwhile, Intel will start mass producing 7nm in 2023. Yikes.
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Desert_Power
Footballguy
That seems pretty odd.
