Stock Thread (18 Viewers)

[FreeBaGeL]

AAPL the last remaining tech soldier. Any doubt it's next to get crushed?

I'm really interested to see what happens with these big tech companies.

They're down so much but sentiment can change so fast. Look at NFLX. After all the heartbreak one good earnings report and it ran up 100% from its bottom in just a few months.

But on the flipside the world's top companies seem to rotate out every 10-20 years and a lot of these big tech companies have been up there for 10+ years now, starting about 10 years after the time when companies like GE were the biggest SP500 companies.

 

[McBokonon]

Airlines back near the covid lows.

That seems pretty odd.

I haven’t looked into it because I’ve never really been interested in cruise lines, but I’m guessing they probably have a lot more debt (and now rising rates) and dilution now then they did during the COVID lows.

 

[Sand]

Airlines back near the covid lows.

That seems pretty odd.

It's a bet on recession. In the history of this survey it's pegging the scale.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Fresh lows on the Nasdaq

 

[beef]

When you walk down the street or standing in line to check out and some random guy you don't know says, "hey, stock market, yay!" you know it's time to sell or trim on some big wins. Well, that guy is crying recession now. I'm buying some Q's.

 

[GoBirds]

So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.

Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).

Are you buying anything right now?

I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.

Am I smart putting money in VTEB and VTIP? Which funds do you like for bonds?

 

[Capella]

The beatings will continue until morale improves.



If morale improves the beatings will continue anyhow.

 

[ghostguy123]

At least CYDY is only 98% off it's 10 dollar high.

On a more serious note, so Amazon is at like 2018 pricing. Was it hugely overvalued then? Did something change recently with their fundamentals? Just things being irrational? Market manipulation?

What you guys buying right now?

 

[fruity pebbles]

At least CYDY is only 98% off it's 10 dollar high.

On a more serious note, so Amazon is at like 2018 pricing. Was it hugely overvalued then? Did something change recently with their fundamentals? Just things being irrational? Market manipulation?

What you guys buying right now?

Just don’t think there’s much growth there.

 

[Schmeabs]

I bought a pretty big position in TSLA today at $109.64.

 

[beef]

What you guys buying right now?

What everyone seems to hate... Big Tech & Semis. 1st of the year when I can restock the Roth I'm diving head first in the shallow end of the QQQ or similar funds/ETFs. Going to hurt like hell for a bit I'm sure, but it'll be a great story to tell 10-15 years from now. Just like it was a cool story to tell a couple of years ago when I did it in 2009-10.

 

[ghostguy123]

Carvana was at 240 in January. Right now, 3.50???
Good lord.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Carvana was at 240 in January. Right now, 3.50???
Good lord.

Be zero soon

 

[Capella]

At least CYDY is only 98% off it's 10 dollar high.

On a more serious note, so Amazon is at like 2018 pricing. Was it hugely overvalued then? Did something change recently with their fundamentals? Just things being irrational? Market manipulation?

What you guys buying right now?

Just don’t think there’s much growth there.

??

Amazon revenue for the twelve months ending September 30, 2022 was $502.191B, a 9.66% increase year-over-year.

Amazon annual revenue for 2021 was $469.822B, a 21.7% increase from 2020.

Amazon annual revenue for 2020 was $386.064B, a 37.62% increase from 2019.

Amazon annual revenue for 2019 was $280.522B, a 20.45% increase from 2018.

 

[Sand]

So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.

Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).

Are you buying anything right now?

I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.

Am I smart putting money in VTEB and VTIP? Which funds do you like for bonds?

I'm out of my depth on those two. Munis are a bit of a different beast and TIPS are fairly complex (at least to me). Like Todem I believe we should have some reversion to the mean on bonds. I personally have held GVI and IEF this year, which are the durations I'm comfortable with. Todem may have some more specific ideas - I'm just holding thinking the rubber band will snap back at least a bit next year.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

At least CYDY is only 98% off it's 10 dollar high.

On a more serious note, so Amazon is at like 2018 pricing. Was it hugely overvalued then? Did something change recently with their fundamentals? Just things being irrational? Market manipulation?

What you guys buying right now?

Just don’t think there’s much growth there.

??

Amazon revenue for the twelve months ending September 30, 2022 was $502.191B, a 9.66% increase year-over-year.

Amazon annual revenue for 2021 was $469.822B, a 21.7% increase from 2020.

Amazon annual revenue for 2020 was $386.064B, a 37.62% increase from 2019.

Amazon annual revenue for 2019 was $280.522B, a 20.45% increase from 2018.

I like Amazon, but I'll play a bit of devil's advocate here.

Revenue is up, but EPS is similar to where it was in 2018. Additionally its P/E ratio in 2018 was 182 so it was priced for EXTREME growth back then. So 80% revenue growth and 20% profit growth in 3 years is pretty good in a vacuum, but maybe not as great for a company priced for ultra mega massive extreme growth.

Additionally at that time EPS was trending up, and revenue growth was getting larger every year. Now EPS is trending way down (albeit from unsustainable pandemic highs) and the amount of revenue growth has been cut in half every year.

On the flipside, the issues are more with profit than revenue, and Amazon has never been shy that they don't give a crap about showing a profit, so that's nothing new.

 

[fruity pebbles]

At least CYDY is only 98% off it's 10 dollar high.

On a more serious note, so Amazon is at like 2018 pricing. Was it hugely overvalued then? Did something change recently with their fundamentals? Just things being irrational? Market manipulation?

What you guys buying right now?

Just don’t think there’s much growth there.

??

Amazon revenue for the twelve months ending September 30, 2022 was $502.191B, a 9.66% increase year-over-year.

Amazon annual revenue for 2021 was $469.822B, a 21.7% increase from 2020.

Amazon annual revenue for 2020 was $386.064B, a 37.62% increase from 2019.

Amazon annual revenue for 2019 was $280.522B, a 20.45% increase from 2018.

So revenue growth of 37%, 21% and 9% ? Its no longer a high growth company and is being priced accordingly. As big as they are, you get to a certain point and you just can’t keep popping off 20% native growth anymore.

 

[Todem]

I bought a pretty big position in TSLA today at $109.64.

Prepare for more pain. Still highly overvalued at these levels. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Todem]

So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.

Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).

Are you buying anything right now?

I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.

Am I smart putting money in VTEB and VTIP? Which funds do you like for bonds?

I'm out of my depth on those two. Munis are a bit of a different beast and TIPS are fairly complex (at least to me). Like Todem I believe we should have some reversion to the mean on bonds. I personally have held GVI and IEF this year, which are the durations I'm comfortable with. Todem may have some more specific ideas - I'm just holding thinking the rubber band will snap back at least a bit next year.

On the muni side I would be short and intermediate on the duration side of things. Also love the high yield space in munis.

On the taxable side:

Same duration story diversified among:

High quality corporates, treasuries, high yield, etc.

Don’t guess just diversify it.

The bond market was whacked at an historical pace this year. IMO it most likely will outperform equities in 2023.

Even for my most aggressive models I have implemented 15% into fixed income for 2023. It is a tactical move for 2023.

For the traditional 60/40 portfolios we are more like 40/50/10 (stocks/bonds/alts) for 2023.

Alt’s being real estate and buy write index strategies.

Real Estate for me is

O
GLPI

Buy writes are:
DIAX
QYLD
BXMX
JEPI

It is a shame Santa got run over by a reindeer this year.

Yield yield yield is my mantra for 2023.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

At least CYDY is only 98% off it's 10 dollar high.

On a more serious note, so Amazon is at like 2018 pricing. Was it hugely overvalued then? Did something change recently with their fundamentals? Just things being irrational? Market manipulation?

What you guys buying right now?

Just don’t think there’s much growth there.

??

Amazon revenue for the twelve months ending September 30, 2022 was $502.191B, a 9.66% increase year-over-year.

Amazon annual revenue for 2021 was $469.822B, a 21.7% increase from 2020.

Amazon annual revenue for 2020 was $386.064B, a 37.62% increase from 2019.

Amazon annual revenue for 2019 was $280.522B, a 20.45% increase from 2018.

So revenue growth of 37%, 21% and 9% ? Its no longer a high growth company and is being priced accordingly. As big as they are, you get to a certain point and you just can’t keep popping off 20% native growth anymore.

Going back to devil's advocate to the other side, it's tricky because that 37% was probably an outlier due to everyone being stuck at home that year from covid.

Realistically, given the complete outlier scenario that generated that, it's remarkable that they were able to grow at all from those numbers. Everyone was forced to shop at home that year, so those numbers were never sustainable, and you'd expect regression back to the mean. But not only were they able to sustain those outlier revenue numbers, they were actually able to improve upon them, but just not at as fast a rate.

It's one of the reasons the stock market is so weird. Once you do something really good, you have to somehow find a way to do even better going forward without the same tailwinds, or doing something really good can actually hurt you long term.

Imagine if stock market expectations applied to everything else. It would be like if you made 100k at work and typically got a 5% raise at work, but you worked your butt off at work for a year and had some lucky breaks and got some massive, 200% raise. Then the following year you got another 50% raise from there. So you're making $450k now, a ton more money than you were two years ago, and just got the second largest raise of your life, and your wife reacts with "wow your raise was down 75% year over year, you are a failure and I am leaving you, you freaking lazy bum".

 

[McBokonon]

GLPI

What do you think of VICI? Thinking about doing a gaming REIT basket with these 2.

 

[Todem]

GLPI

What do you think of VICI? Thinking about doing a gaming REIT basket with these 2.

I will have to research it. I love GLPI.....was buying hand over fist in the early stages of the pandemic in the mid teens. This is a machine gaming REIT. Get back to you on VICI.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

When you walk down the street or standing in line to check out and some random guy you don't know says, "hey, stock market, yay!" you know it's time to sell or trim on some big wins. Well, that guy is crying recession now. I'm buying some Q's.

100% GB

I jumped in and out of my 401K's this year and was only down about 15%. I put everything in fixed on 12/19 and plan on keeping it there on 6/23. All new money is going into 50% S&P and the other in small & mid caps. I think S&P still gets hammered more but buy low right?

 

[GoBirds]

So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.

Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).

Are you buying anything right now?

I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.

Am I smart putting money in VTEB and VTIP? Which funds do you like for bonds?

I'm out of my depth on those two. Munis are a bit of a different beast and TIPS are fairly complex (at least to me). Like Todem I believe we should have some reversion to the mean on bonds. I personally have held GVI and IEF this year, which are the durations I'm comfortable with. Todem may have some more specific ideas - I'm just holding thinking the rubber band will snap back at least a bit next year.

On the muni side I would be short and intermediate on the duration side of things. Also love the high yield space in munis.

On the taxable side:

Same duration story diversified among:

High quality corporates, treasuries, high yield, etc.

Don’t guess just diversify it.

The bond market was whacked at an historical pace this year. IMO it most likely will outperform equities in 2023.

Even for my most aggressive models I have implemented 15% into fixed income for 2023. It is a tactical move for 2023.

For the traditional 60/40 portfolios we are more like 40/50/10 (stocks/bonds/alts) for 2023.

Alt’s being real estate and buy write index strategies.

Real Estate for me is

O
GLPI

Buy writes are:
DIAX
QYLD
BXMX
JEPI

It is a shame Santa got run over by a reindeer this year.

Yield yield yield is my mantra for 2023.

Great info, do you mind advising which Vanguard bond funds you like?

 

[Todem]

So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.

Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).

Are you buying anything right now?

I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.

Am I smart putting money in VTEB and VTIP? Which funds do you like for bonds?

I'm out of my depth on those two. Munis are a bit of a different beast and TIPS are fairly complex (at least to me). Like Todem I believe we should have some reversion to the mean on bonds. I personally have held GVI and IEF this year, which are the durations I'm comfortable with. Todem may have some more specific ideas - I'm just holding thinking the rubber band will snap back at least a bit next year.

On the muni side I would be short and intermediate on the duration side of things. Also love the high yield space in munis.

On the taxable side:

Same duration story diversified among:

High quality corporates, treasuries, high yield, etc.

Don’t guess just diversify it.

The bond market was whacked at an historical pace this year. IMO it most likely will outperform equities in 2023.

Even for my most aggressive models I have implemented 15% into fixed income for 2023. It is a tactical move for 2023.

For the traditional 60/40 portfolios we are more like 40/50/10 (stocks/bonds/alts) for 2023.

Alt’s being real estate and buy write index strategies.

Real Estate for me is

O
GLPI

Buy writes are:
DIAX
QYLD
BXMX
JEPI

It is a shame Santa got run over by a reindeer this year.

Yield yield yield is my mantra for 2023.

Great info, do you mind advising which Vanguard bond funds you like?

Will have something posted by Friday. Gotta research their fund lineup.

 

[Schmeabs]

I bought a pretty big position in TSLA today at $109.64.

Prepare for more pain. Still highly overvalued at these levels. Just my 2 cents.

My pain tolerance is pretty solid after this year so I welcome it. Too many people selling TSLA just because they hate Musk.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I bought a pretty big position in TSLA today at $109.64.

Prepare for more pain. Still highly overvalued at these levels. Just my 2 cents.

My pain tolerance is pretty solid after this year so I welcome it. Too many people selling TSLA just because they hate Musk.

Before too many were buying because they loved Musk.

 

[GoBirds]

So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.

Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).

Are you buying anything right now?

I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.

Am I smart putting money in VTEB and VTIP? Which funds do you like for bonds?

I'm out of my depth on those two. Munis are a bit of a different beast and TIPS are fairly complex (at least to me). Like Todem I believe we should have some reversion to the mean on bonds. I personally have held GVI and IEF this year, which are the durations I'm comfortable with. Todem may have some more specific ideas - I'm just holding thinking the rubber band will snap back at least a bit next year.

On the muni side I would be short and intermediate on the duration side of things. Also love the high yield space in munis.

On the taxable side:

Same duration story diversified among:

High quality corporates, treasuries, high yield, etc.

Don’t guess just diversify it.

The bond market was whacked at an historical pace this year. IMO it most likely will outperform equities in 2023.

Even for my most aggressive models I have implemented 15% into fixed income for 2023. It is a tactical move for 2023.

For the traditional 60/40 portfolios we are more like 40/50/10 (stocks/bonds/alts) for 2023.

Alt’s being real estate and buy write index strategies.

Real Estate for me is

O
GLPI

Buy writes are:
DIAX
QYLD
BXMX
JEPI

It is a shame Santa got run over by a reindeer this year.

Yield yield yield is my mantra for 2023.

Great info, do you mind advising which Vanguard bond funds you like?

Will have something posted by Friday. Gotta research their fund lineup.

Appreciate it. I’ve been putting most in VTEB being in a higher bracket recent years and I thought I was being smart buying some VTIP but wasn’t as smart as I thought as I clearly didn’t understand how it worked.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I bought a pretty big position in TSLA today at $109.64.

Prepare for more pain. Still highly overvalued at these levels. Just my 2 cents.

My pain tolerance is pretty solid after this year so I welcome it. Too many people selling TSLA just because they hate Musk.

Before too many were buying because they loved Musk.

I know there are a lot of headwinds that aren't factored into the math, but this is pretty much the first time ever you could say that TSLA actually kind of makes sense even without the Musk ethos.

A P/E ratio of 34 for a company that has probably the fastest growing net profit of any SP500 company is actually kind of reasonable.

Compared to a year or two ago where it was a company with a P/E ratio of 1000 and fighting to turn a profit at all.

Tesla's net profit this quarter was $3.3B and their stock price is the same as it was in August of 2020 when they were fighting to break even.

 

[humpback]

At least CYDY is only 98% off it's 10 dollar high.

On a more serious note, so Amazon is at like 2018 pricing. Was it hugely overvalued then? Did something change recently with their fundamentals? Just things being irrational? Market manipulation?

What you guys buying right now?

Just don’t think there’s much growth there.

??

Amazon revenue for the twelve months ending September 30, 2022 was $502.191B, a 9.66% increase year-over-year.

Amazon annual revenue for 2021 was $469.822B, a 21.7% increase from 2020.

Amazon annual revenue for 2020 was $386.064B, a 37.62% increase from 2019.

Amazon annual revenue for 2019 was $280.522B, a 20.45% increase from 2018.

So revenue growth of 37%, 21% and 9% ? Its no longer a high growth company and is being priced accordingly. As big as they are, you get to a certain point and you just can’t keep popping off 20% native growth anymore.

Going back to devil's advocate to the other side, it's tricky because that 37% was probably an outlier due to everyone being stuck at home that year from covid.

Realistically, given the complete outlier scenario that generated that, it's remarkable that they were able to grow at all from those numbers. Everyone was forced to shop at home that year, so those numbers were never sustainable, and you'd expect regression back to the mean. But not only were they able to sustain those outlier revenue numbers, they were actually able to improve upon them, but just not at as fast a rate.

It's one of the reasons the stock market is so weird. Once you do something really good, you have to somehow find a way to do even better going forward without the same tailwinds, or doing something really good can actually hurt you long term.

Imagine if stock market expectations applied to everything else. It would be like if you made 100k at work and typically got a 5% raise at work, but you worked your butt off at work for a year and had some lucky breaks and got some massive, 200% raise. Then the following year you got another 50% raise from there. So you're making $450k now, a ton more money than you were two years ago, and just got the second largest raise of your life, and your wife reacts with "wow your raise was down 75% year over year, you are a failure and I am leaving you, you freaking lazy bum".

The difference is that the stock market is forward looking, and AMZN skyrocketed well before (and along with) that growth. When the reason for the skyrocketing prices slows, it's only natural that the price declines with it.

In your analogy it would be more like if after your huge raise you spent like a drunken sailor and told your wife that you expected similar sized raises as far as the eye can see in the future. Then when reality sets in and you realize you're overextended you have to lower your standard of living some to be more in line with the current circumstances.

 

[KGB]

I bought a pretty big position in TSLA today at $109.64.

I hate this play and I made a grip on TSLA. It was the cool car, elon was the cool guy. if he tweeted the stock price could go up.

No one cares if elon tweets now, others are coming out with electric and im not even looking to buy a tesla now, I was before. and the stock was pumped to what, like the worth of 2 toyotas or something. I hate this stock right now. just my 2c

TSLA current price $112

 

[Schmeabs]

I bought a pretty big position in TSLA today at $109.64.

I hate this play and I made a grip on TSLA. It was the cool car, elon was the cool guy. if he tweeted the stock price could go up.

No one cares if elon tweets now, others are coming out with electric and im not even looking to buy a tesla now, I was before. and the stock was pumped to what, like the worth of 2 toyotas or something. I hate this stock right now. just my 2c

TSLA current price $112

Well, I am up almost 10% in one day. I know it will be volatile and I am okay with that.

 

[Todem]

Back to the Muni bond conversation. Looking through inventory, the real value in the muni space is the intermediate duration space (8-14 years)

 

[beef]

I bought a pretty big position in TSLA today at $109.64.

I hate this play and I made a grip on TSLA. It was the cool car, elon was the cool guy. if he tweeted the stock price could go up.

No one cares if elon tweets now, others are coming out with electric and im not even looking to buy a tesla now, I was before. and the stock was pumped to what, like the worth of 2 toyotas or something. I hate this stock right now. just my 2c

TSLA current price $112

I don't care how cool or awesome Tesla's are, I won't ever buy one now. Won't own the individual stock either except for what's part of IRA funds and ETFs. Don't really care if this sounds stupid either. There are plenty of other vehicles I find way more practical and stocks I much prefer. F' Elon.

 

[Bogart]

Anyone still still shorting/optioning against DWAC? Getting hit with Federal subpoenas and down another 10% to the 25's.

DWAC setting new 52-week lows this morning and dipping below $15 a share. Buyout if the merger doesn't happen still sitting just above $10 a share, so not much more room to drop, but still room.

 

[Desert_Power]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk Just Had His First Margin Call for Twitter Loan

Based on the agreement Elon Musk signed to help fund his Twitter purchase, he has experienced his first margin call because of Tesla's stock-price declines.

www.barrons.com

 

[opensourcebeer]

So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.

Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).

Are you buying anything right now?

I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.

Am I smart putting money in VTEB and VTIP? Which funds do you like for bonds?

I'm out of my depth on those two. Munis are a bit of a different beast and TIPS are fairly complex (at least to me). Like Todem I believe we should have some reversion to the mean on bonds. I personally have held GVI and IEF this year, which are the durations I'm comfortable with. Todem may have some more specific ideas - I'm just holding thinking the rubber band will snap back at least a bit next year.

On the muni side I would be short and intermediate on the duration side of things. Also love the high yield space in munis.

On the taxable side:

Same duration story diversified among:

High quality corporates, treasuries, high yield, etc.

Don’t guess just diversify it.

The bond market was whacked at an historical pace this year. IMO it most likely will outperform equities in 2023.

Even for my most aggressive models I have implemented 15% into fixed income for 2023. It is a tactical move for 2023.

For the traditional 60/40 portfolios we are more like 40/50/10 (stocks/bonds/alts) for 2023.

Alt’s being real estate and buy write index strategies.

Real Estate for me is

O
GLPI

Buy writes are:
DIAX
QYLD
BXMX
JEPI

It is a shame Santa got run over by a reindeer this year.

Yield yield yield is my mantra for 2023.

Interesting to see JEPI listed here. I'd love to say I'm smart enough to understand how ELNs work, but that's definitely not the case. Although the dividends it's been producing since I bought in several months ago have been nice, I think it's a good one to have a clear exit strategy on.

 

[fruity pebbles]

So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.

Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).

Are you buying anything right now?

I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.

Am I smart putting money in VTEB and VTIP? Which funds do you like for bonds?

I'm out of my depth on those two. Munis are a bit of a different beast and TIPS are fairly complex (at least to me). Like Todem I believe we should have some reversion to the mean on bonds. I personally have held GVI and IEF this year, which are the durations I'm comfortable with. Todem may have some more specific ideas - I'm just holding thinking the rubber band will snap back at least a bit next year.

On the muni side I would be short and intermediate on the duration side of things. Also love the high yield space in munis.

On the taxable side:

Same duration story diversified among:

High quality corporates, treasuries, high yield, etc.

Don’t guess just diversify it.

The bond market was whacked at an historical pace this year. IMO it most likely will outperform equities in 2023.

Even for my most aggressive models I have implemented 15% into fixed income for 2023. It is a tactical move for 2023.

For the traditional 60/40 portfolios we are more like 40/50/10 (stocks/bonds/alts) for 2023.

Alt’s being real estate and buy write index strategies.

Real Estate for me is

O
GLPI

Buy writes are:
DIAX
QYLD
BXMX
JEPI

It is a shame Santa got run over by a reindeer this year.

Yield yield yield is my mantra for 2023.

Interesting to see JEPI listed here. I'd love to say I'm smart enough to understand how ELNs work, but that's definitely not the case. Although the dividends it's been producing since I bought in several months ago have been nice, I think it's a good one to have a clear exit strategy on.

Why? Just curious.

 

[opensourcebeer]

So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.

Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).

Are you buying anything right now?

I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.

Am I smart putting money in VTEB and VTIP? Which funds do you like for bonds?

I'm out of my depth on those two. Munis are a bit of a different beast and TIPS are fairly complex (at least to me). Like Todem I believe we should have some reversion to the mean on bonds. I personally have held GVI and IEF this year, which are the durations I'm comfortable with. Todem may have some more specific ideas - I'm just holding thinking the rubber band will snap back at least a bit next year.

On the muni side I would be short and intermediate on the duration side of things. Also love the high yield space in munis.

On the taxable side:

Same duration story diversified among:

High quality corporates, treasuries, high yield, etc.

Don’t guess just diversify it.

The bond market was whacked at an historical pace this year. IMO it most likely will outperform equities in 2023.

Even for my most aggressive models I have implemented 15% into fixed income for 2023. It is a tactical move for 2023.

For the traditional 60/40 portfolios we are more like 40/50/10 (stocks/bonds/alts) for 2023.

Alt’s being real estate and buy write index strategies.

Real Estate for me is

O
GLPI

Buy writes are:
DIAX
QYLD
BXMX
JEPI

It is a shame Santa got run over by a reindeer this year.

Yield yield yield is my mantra for 2023.

Interesting to see JEPI listed here. I'd love to say I'm smart enough to understand how ELNs work, but that's definitely not the case. Although the dividends it's been producing since I bought in several months ago have been nice, I think it's a good one to have a clear exit strategy on.

Why? Just curious.

Mostly because I feel like I'm making a rookie mistake by investing in something I don't understand (ELNs). Secondarily, the recent yields strike me as unsustainable. Lastly, there is not much history to go by with JEPI.

 

[McBokonon]

So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.

Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).

Are you buying anything right now?

I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.

Am I smart putting money in VTEB and VTIP? Which funds do you like for bonds?

I'm out of my depth on those two. Munis are a bit of a different beast and TIPS are fairly complex (at least to me). Like Todem I believe we should have some reversion to the mean on bonds. I personally have held GVI and IEF this year, which are the durations I'm comfortable with. Todem may have some more specific ideas - I'm just holding thinking the rubber band will snap back at least a bit next year.

On the muni side I would be short and intermediate on the duration side of things. Also love the high yield space in munis.

On the taxable side:

Same duration story diversified among:

High quality corporates, treasuries, high yield, etc.

Don’t guess just diversify it.

The bond market was whacked at an historical pace this year. IMO it most likely will outperform equities in 2023.

Even for my most aggressive models I have implemented 15% into fixed income for 2023. It is a tactical move for 2023.

For the traditional 60/40 portfolios we are more like 40/50/10 (stocks/bonds/alts) for 2023.

Alt’s being real estate and buy write index strategies.

Real Estate for me is

O
GLPI

Buy writes are:
DIAX
QYLD
BXMX
JEPI

It is a shame Santa got run over by a reindeer this year.

Yield yield yield is my mantra for 2023.

Interesting to see JEPI listed here. I'd love to say I'm smart enough to understand how ELNs work, but that's definitely not the case. Although the dividends it's been producing since I bought in several months ago have been nice, I think it's a good one to have a clear exit strategy on.

Why? Just curious.

Mostly because I feel like I'm making a rookie mistake by investing in something I don't understand (ELNs). Secondarily, the recent yields strike me as unsustainable. Lastly, there is not much history to go by with JEPI.

It’s an ETF, not an ELN. I know that they may invest 20% of their assets in ELN’s but the rest are equities like ABBV, PEP, etc. that they sell covered calls on.

 

[Todem]

So if you try and search for a stock quote on CNBC for FANG you literally can't get it - it just pulls up the Meta, Google, etc. menagerie.

Oh, and IEF is just killing me. Just a brutal December. Thank goodness I dialed back on duration in 2021 - I don't even want to see what EDV or TLT look like this year (no longer own those, thank goodness).

Are you buying anything right now?

I bought some FANG - I don't think energy is over yet. Bought a couple bonds - GS and MS 5.625% notes. Other than that, nothing substantial. IMO there will be lots of good opportunity for high quality corporate bonds. And I agree with the sentiment above that bonds will do well in 2023 - after a 250 year record decline you have to think there will be a bounceback at some point. I'm not selling my IEF and GVI, that's for sure. They'll bounce at some point.

Am I smart putting money in VTEB and VTIP? Which funds do you like for bonds?

I'm out of my depth on those two. Munis are a bit of a different beast and TIPS are fairly complex (at least to me). Like Todem I believe we should have some reversion to the mean on bonds. I personally have held GVI and IEF this year, which are the durations I'm comfortable with. Todem may have some more specific ideas - I'm just holding thinking the rubber band will snap back at least a bit next year.

On the muni side I would be short and intermediate on the duration side of things. Also love the high yield space in munis.

On the taxable side:

Same duration story diversified among:

High quality corporates, treasuries, high yield, etc.

Don’t guess just diversify it.

The bond market was whacked at an historical pace this year. IMO it most likely will outperform equities in 2023.

Even for my most aggressive models I have implemented 15% into fixed income for 2023. It is a tactical move for 2023.

For the traditional 60/40 portfolios we are more like 40/50/10 (stocks/bonds/alts) for 2023.

Alt’s being real estate and buy write index strategies.

Real Estate for me is

O
GLPI

Buy writes are:
DIAX
QYLD
BXMX
JEPI

It is a shame Santa got run over by a reindeer this year.

Yield yield yield is my mantra for 2023.

Interesting to see JEPI listed here. I'd love to say I'm smart enough to understand how ELNs work, but that's definitely not the case. Although the dividends it's been producing since I bought in several months ago have been nice, I think it's a good one to have a clear exit strategy on.

Why? Just curious.

Mostly because I feel like I'm making a rookie mistake by investing in something I don't understand (ELNs). Secondarily, the recent yields strike me as unsustainable. Lastly, there is not much history to go by with JEPI.

It’s an ETF, not an ELN. I know that they may invest 20% of their assets in ELN’s but the rest are equities like ABBV, PEP, etc. that they sell covered calls on.

Correct it is a covered call strategy on a large cap value portfolio.

 

[KGB]

I bought a pretty big position in TSLA today at $109.64.

I hate this play and I made a grip on TSLA. It was the cool car, elon was the cool guy. if he tweeted the stock price could go up.

No one cares if elon tweets now, others are coming out with electric and im not even looking to buy a tesla now, I was before. and the stock was pumped to what, like the worth of 2 toyotas or something. I hate this stock right now. just my 2c

TSLA current price $112

Well, I am up almost 10% in one day. I know it will be volatile and I am okay with that.

NICE!

 

[Sand]

And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.

 

[GoBirds]

And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.

I hear ya, better days ahead my friend! Just not sure when.

 

[GoBirds]

Back to the Muni bond conversation. Looking through inventory, the real value in the muni space is the intermediate duration space (8-14 years)

So would that mean a VWITX is a better option to VTEB? Or spread funds around in tax exempt if in higher bracket?

ETA also getting 3.9% in Vanguard cash plus account but that would miss a bond bounce back.

 

[fruity pebbles]

And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.

Think many would love being down only 25%. Most were pretty tech heavy entering 2022.

 

[Sand]

And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.

Think many would love being down only 25%. Most were pretty tech heavy entering 2022.

No doubt. The biggest issue is this year is that everyone starts with a -8% or so (if you believe US govt. inflation numbers). That's the baseline, which is brutal. Add on the 250 year bear market in bonds and there was no hiding this year.

 

[Mitchie]

And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.

Think many would love being down only 25%. Most were pretty tech heavy entering 2022.

No doubt. The biggest issue is this year is that everyone starts with a -8% or so (if you believe US govt. inflation numbers). That's the baseline, which is brutal. Add on the 250 year bear market in bonds and there was no hiding this year.

Not exactly, down 8% of what you spend. And that % can vary quite a bit.

 

[Sand]

And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.

Think many would love being down only 25%. Most were pretty tech heavy entering 2022.

No doubt. The biggest issue is this year is that everyone starts with a -8% or so (if you believe US govt. inflation numbers). That's the baseline, which is brutal. Add on the 250 year bear market in bonds and there was no hiding this year.

Not exactly, down 8% of what you spend. And that % can vary quite a bit.

Respectfully disagree there. Inflation is multiplicative - so that 8% will affect all future spending until I (or you) die. Every dollar you have is worth 8% less thanks to the inflationary results of economic decisions made. This is what makes inflation so insidious.

On top of that the Fed is terrified of ever getting to a deflationary condition, so I expect that multiplier to never go below 1 during my lifetime.

 

[ghostguy123]

And so 2022 ends pretty much the same as the rest of the year. With inflation I'll end up 25% down this year. Gut punch.

Think many would love being down only 25%. Most were pretty tech heavy entering 2022.

No doubt. The biggest issue is this year is that everyone starts with a -8% or so (if you believe US govt. inflation numbers). That's the baseline, which is brutal. Add on the 250 year bear market in bonds and there was no hiding this year.

Not exactly, down 8% of what you spend. And that % can vary quite a bit.

Respectfully disagree there. Inflation is multiplicative - so that 8% will affect all future spending until I (or you) die. Every dollar you have is worth 8% less thanks to the inflationary results of economic decisions made. This is what makes inflation so insidious.

On top of that the Fed is terrified of ever getting to a deflationary condition, so I expect that multiplier to never go below 1 during my lifetime.

But but but......I got a 3% raise this year