fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Rallying into the CPI, not a fan
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Stock Thread (27 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Sand
Footballguy
Sure gets quiet in here during rallies. Ten more days like today and I'll be well.
Talk about a splash of cold water.
Capella
Footballguy
Recent history hasn’t worked out for us in these situations but hey, maybe the pendulum is shifting.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I forgot the third scenario where CPI is in line all the way around, which means we don’t have a clear indication of direction and the market hates uncertainty so stocks go down.
Capella
Footballguy
Made me laugh when I saw it was just in line. Thought well we didn’t consider that one.
Seems positive but I think we may just kind of go sideways for a while. That’s fine with me. We need to keep hoarding our 401ks. I wouldn’t mind being able to invest at a low level before another bull starts for a while. I’ve gotta be patient now so I’d like to enjoy buying low for a while after the kick to the nuts of 2022.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Yeah, that's the positive for sure.
I took an overall look at our accounts yesterday and things aren't too bad. Lots of good money going into a down market right now, so eventually we will see those gains and when it happens it will be nice.
I can still afford beer, so I'm good.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Sold a lot of covered calls this past week with March and April expirations.
Been doing this every quarter. These are the markets where covered calls take some of the sting out and enhance your overall yield.
Matter of time here before we take a leg down.
But it has been a nice start to the year after that horrific 2022.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Yup. Took profits out of my short term account.
Todem
Footballguy
But but they are not a car company!!!
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Some laughable quotes from the analysts in that article, but this seems like a necessary response to the collapse in used Tesla prices. I'd guess more price cuts will follow.
Todem
Footballguy
If the market is going to value it like a car company look out below …..
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Ford has some wild days. Are people confusing it with TSLA?
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Up all 5 days this week for me. Can't remember the last time that happened. 3/4 last week.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Obviously risky with such a volatile stock, but TSLA could be setting up nicely for another swing trade.
They have tons of space in their margins for a price cut and they cut them exactly the amount to make the cars eligible for the $7500 tax credit.
So for instance the model Y they cut the price $4300, which puts it just under the price threshold to qualify for the $7500 tax credit. So while they cut the price by $4300 on their end, it actually saves the customer $12,000 off the price from just 1 month ago.
I'm seeing lots of chatter about it. For instance on slickdeals the thread about the price cuts is already around 1500 posts long, which is about 5x as long as a thread for any car deal prior.
We've seen how this stock can run off good sales reports before. I guess the question even if they do hit that would be if the Elon mystique is damaged enough to prevent that, and if the market as a whole tanks in the interim.
They have tons of space in their margins for a price cut and they cut them exactly the amount to make the cars eligible for the $7500 tax credit.
So for instance the model Y they cut the price $4300, which puts it just under the price threshold to qualify for the $7500 tax credit. So while they cut the price by $4300 on their end, it actually saves the customer $12,000 off the price from just 1 month ago.
I'm seeing lots of chatter about it. For instance on slickdeals the thread about the price cuts is already around 1500 posts long, which is about 5x as long as a thread for any car deal prior.
We've seen how this stock can run off good sales reports before. I guess the question even if they do hit that would be if the Elon mystique is damaged enough to prevent that, and if the market as a whole tanks in the interim.
Same here, it was a great week. I'm not much of a seller, generally try to add on to what I own from time to time and think longer-term. Expecting to give this back next week
Sand
Footballguy
And in a true holy crap moment, the 10 year is up 3% for the year. That's a pretty big move.
Todem
Footballguy
Pretty historic move.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
My bond fund is keeping up with my stock funds. It's like I'm 100% invested in equities lol.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
What does it mean?
Sand
Footballguy
IMO, expectations of lower interest rates down the line, which goes hand in hand with a softening economy.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Inflation cooling down = red day?
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Inflation is so 2022, recession is the new cool.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think it's because the fed said they still plan on continuing to raise at a similar pace.
It's all rate driven. Inflation data is only good because it means they're likely to slow down rate raises. So people see good inflation data and assume that's the case, and start buying. But then when the fed says they still haven't seen enough and aren't going to slow down the rate hikes yet, that kind of unwinds that move.
Orange&Blue
Footballguy
2023 is going to be a rollercoaster
General Malaise
Footballguy
Related:
Minsur has temporarily suspended operations after continued protests around their San Rafael mine rock the region.
The deadly protests come as supporters of the recently ousted president, Pedro Castillo, and security forces clashed in the south-eastern regions of Peru. The San Rafael mine is located in the region of Puno that has seen some of the worst violence. A mid-December state of emergency in the area was extended for a month on January 15th.
Minsur, the world’s third largest tin producer, decided to temporarily suspend mining operations at its San Rafael tin mine on Thursday 12th January. Although the mine was not directly impacted by protests, the decision was made in solidarity with the victims.
Since then, the company stated that they stopped operations of the whole unit, including the concentrates plant. Concerns for the safety of staff were highlighted, with transportation of minerals and resources currently not feasible due to road blockages.
The company hopes their output will be affected as little as possible, although a date to restart operations is still unclear.
KGB
Footballguy
Is this in regards to the govt not wanting gas stoves in houses? I couldnt even believe it when I heard that. I'd bet more on Cow farts
Harry Frogfish
Footballguy
Good. Give it time, this isn't roulette.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
This NYSE error today was a rude surprise. Was wondering what my largest holding did this time to be down 11%
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
MSFT up 4% AH post-earnings report. They also have recent announcements about layoffs and investing billions in AI, but perhaps this is an indication that earnings season won't be a disaster?
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Or not...
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Poor outlook?
Todem
Footballguy
Although we have had a nice start….we are still in a bear market and we are in the midst of another bear market rally.
Expect another leg down soon.
So far Bonds have drastically outperformed stocks as I expected and that is the theme for 2023 along with yield.
We will get some Fed talk and action in February.
An earnings recession is most likely on the horizon. Some sectors more affected than others. Margins are tough, growth is tough. But the consumer has been resilient so far. And this is shaping up to be a white collar like recession which btw I maintain started in the summer of 2022.
I have been personally building cash as I can get 4% in a money market right now.
Then when we have some dips we can put it to work in the master list and accumulate more shares of high quality cash flow positive, growing dividend companies.
I still feel strongly we come out of 2023 into a new cyclical bull market. 2024 will be a much better year overall.
2023 is going to be sideways kinda market thru the summer.
What can change that?
If the Fed clearly guides they are in a full pause on raising rates the market could rally. If they indicate they are not done that will trigger more selling action. This is all short term head and tail wind stuff.
Longer term…..no worries.
I don’t think a lot of stocks are currently priced for an earnings recession.
NFLX for example was a great trade for us (we are out now) buying it down in the dumps but now the forward multiple is too rich for me. We had been selling covered calls at juicy premiums and the ride ended. When they dip back down (believe me they will) I will do that again.
Big mega tech will sell off some more and retreat from this early rally once the street realizes jobs cuts is a sign of trouble to the fundamentals of the business. It means growth and margins are compressing. Not expanding.
In any case there will be plenty of opportunities to buy lower this year despite this nice bump up we have enjoyed in the first month of 2023.
So to sum it up….for your taxable accounts build cash (that does not mean sell what you have I am talking about saving your excess after bills and entertainment) into a high yield money market to deploy on bad days.
401K’s as always….full steam ahead. DCA into it every month like clockwork.
The Commish
Footballguy
The dangers have always been there. It a matter of chemistry. I find it weird people would argue against those dangers, but here we are. That said, this is a "problem" that is easily solved by better ventilation and installation tuning. Gas stoves aren't going anywhere. All that said, we love our induction cooktop. It's absolute
and likely where things are headed...too many pros to ignore IMO. There's going to be a market for the cooktops as well as cookware.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Think we make new lows on the broader averages or the lows in? I’m torn.
Todem
Footballguy
I believe we retest the previous lows. Now that can change if the recession (I don’t care what pundits say we are in one already) goes deeper than anticipated. And if things are better than the market anticipates then we may bounce around in a tighter range. 2022 we corrected like we are having a recession. It is very very rare to have two straight double digit down years…like extremely rare.
Again my play is being diversified and we went back into fixed income in December. This is the highest allocation I have personally had in my investment life. As far as my models we re-allocated to the target fixed income %’s for the first time in over a decade.
I think the market as a whole finishes positive in 2023. It just will be a slog getting there. Hence my focus on yield and building cash with new money to tactically deploy on deep red days.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Tin prices are back on the hop.
Capella
Footballguy
I got my first gas stove 3 years ago when we bought this house. I remember for 2 weeks I was like…we really are pumping gas in here every day, multiple times? To cook?The dangers have always been there. It a matter of chemistry. I find it weird people would argue against those dangers, but here we are. That said, this is a "problem" that is easily solved by better ventilation and installation tuning. Gas stoves aren't going anywhere. All that said, we love our induction cooktop. It's absolute
Seemed crazy to me then and now. We don’t have a ventilation system either, just giant sliding doors we open when we cook, but probably going induction at some point.
The Commish
Footballguy
I got my first gas stove 3 years ago when we bought this house. I remember for 2 weeks I was like…we really are pumping gas in here every day, multiple times? To cook?The dangers have always been there. It a matter of chemistry. I find it weird people would argue against those dangers, but here we are. That said, this is a "problem" that is easily solved by better ventilation and installation tuning. Gas stoves aren't going anywhere. All that said, we love our induction cooktop. It's absolute
Seemed crazy to me then and now. We don’t have a ventilation system either, just giant sliding doors we open when we cook, but probably going induction at some point.
You aren't alone. We remodeled a kitchen when living in SC and put in gas. Wife didn't want a big hood to mess with the "aesthetic". I told her we needed SOME sort of ventilation and explained it in terms that she could understand using generators in the garage etc. No, gas stoves aren't THAT dangerous, but only because the product of the burning is different. We decided to get one of those vents that rose from the counter as a compromise.
