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Stock Thread (22 Viewers)

Im not chasing this tomorrow/Wed, prob has room to run when she wins tomorrow night/Wed early hours, but not the R/R I look for. 

Meanwhile, with the market already beginning to price in a Hillary victory, the downside shock becomes that much worse should Trump pull it out (I'll chase that). 

 
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skycriesmary said:
If he wins, we'll be in a world of hurt for a lot longer than a few days... :scared:
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It's this type of emotional thinking that sometimes drives market sell off's, that helps me make money in the market, in great companies long term. Not saying you in particular though. As a general rule of thumb.

If Trump wins, we will stop turning on our lights, driving our cars, eating food, drinking, using Amazon, Apple devices, stop using medication, household products....hell we will #### in the woods and wipe our ### with our hands and wash our cloths in a rivers not use bleach, stop cleaning our homes, stop using toliet paper and paper goods altogether. Stop going to the movies, Disney theme parks will shutter their doors....oh the horror in the stock market if Trump wins (which he probably won't but you get my point).

Yep....it's all over.  :cool:

 
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Without putting lots of emotion in it Trump has come out as very liberal on trade, he wants to derail decades of GOP led trade deals that enriched wall street and created lots of record profit.   Everyone knows that Clinton's left leaning trade stances are bull#### and she'll be in line with Reagan/Clinton, Bill when things get going.  

The dollar has also been propped up (or rather not hurt, relatively) by other international monetary policies, and social/political unrest abroad.

If you take a very right leaning trade policy and swing it drastically left with the bellweather currency of the world behind it, bad #### will happen.  Hard to predict ####.  Markets don't like things they can't predict. 

The only hope is that if Trump is elected he's just as full of #### as she is, thing is there's nothing to base this on, hence risk.  

 
culdeus said:
Without putting lots of emotion in it Trump has come out as very liberal on trade, he wants to derail decades of GOP led trade deals that enriched wall street and created lots of record profit.   Everyone knows that Clinton's left leaning trade stances are bull#### and she'll be in line with Reagan/Clinton, Bill when things get going.  

The dollar has also been propped up (or rather not hurt, relatively) by other international monetary policies, and social/political unrest abroad.

If you take a very right leaning trade policy and swing it drastically left with the bellweather currency of the world behind it, bad #### will happen.  Hard to predict ####.  Markets don't like things they can't predict. 

The only hope is that if Trump is elected he's just as full of #### as she is, thing is there's nothing to base this on, hence risk.  
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No doubt some inherent risk.

But unless you think the world is ending, high quality consumer staples and utilities will continue to make money and pay dividends while we work through a possible #### show Trump presidency. My point is don't panic and pounce on opportunity to pick up great stocks on sale when you have those chances.

And I also think he is full of #### anyway to boot.

 
General Malaise said:
I'm not much of a stock theory guy but one thing I've always been intrigued by is the action of the stock market after a storied MLB team in a major market wins a World Series after a drought.

Example A) New York Yankees won the World Series in 1996 after an 18 year drought.

Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 1996: 5,904

Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 1996: 6,448
Dow Advanced 544 Points and 9.2%

Example B) Boston Red Sox won the WS in 2004 after an 86 year drought.

Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 2004: 10,192
Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 2004: 10,783
Dow Advanced 591 points and 5.8%

Example C) St. Louis Cardinals won the WS in 2006 after a 24 year drought.

Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 2006: 11,679
Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 2006: 12,463
Dow Advanced 784 points and 6.7%

Example D) San Francisco Giants won the WS in 2010 after a 56 year drought.

Dow Jones on Oct. 1, 2010: 10,829
Dow Jones on Dec. 31, 2010: 11,577
Dow Advanced 748 points and 6.9%

The conclusion? If you are a tinfoil hat guy, root hard for the Cubbies. A WS win would be their first in more than a century. This is the extent of my stock market analysis.* :tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat:





*I left out the Phillies winning in 2008 because, you know, it didn't fit my theory and that was an era of financial armageddon. Plus, screw Philly, you know? :)
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:nerd:

Down Jones on Oct. 3, 2016:  18,253

:popcorn:

 
Todem said:
It's this type of emotional thinking that sometimes drives market sell off's, that helps me make money in the market, in great companies long term. Not saying you in particular though. As a general rule of thumb.

If Trump wins, we will stop turning on our lights, driving our cars, eating food, drinking, using Amazon, Apple devices, stop using medication, household products....hell we will #### in the woods and wipe our ### with our hands and wash our cloths in a rivers not use bleach, stop cleaning our homes, stop using toliet paper and paper goods altogether. Stop going to the movies, Disney theme parks will shutter their doors....oh the horror in the stock market if Trump wins (which he probably won't but you get my point).

Yep....it's all over.  :cool:
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I'll stop wiping just so I can fit in with the unwashed masses.

 
Weird - oil majors down, high yield way down, long bonds down.  All the opposite of what I would have expected.

 
####### Gold, I bought a #### ton of contracts at $1295, fell asleep it was around $1330, and woke up to my stop getting hit at $1312 - WTMF!! This was supposed to be s super monster, I mean I'll take it, but seriously - what a ####### joke!

 
Anyone with index funds thinking of getting out right now? I never expected us to be up a bit at this point, which to me feels like a miracle and that the real volatility is coming. 

Said another way, if 10 hours ago someone told you that you could go back in time and sell off prior to yesterday's close, knowing Trump would win and futures were down 800ish at one point, would you have done it?

 
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RUSF18 said:
Anyone with index funds thinking of getting out right now? I never expected us to be up a bit at this point, which to me feels like a miracle and that the real volatility is coming. 

Said another way, if 10 hours ago someone told you that you could go back in time and sell off prior to yesterday's close, knowing Trump would win and futures were down 800ish at one point, would you have done it?
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BTFD, the never ending Wall Street scheme.

I think thats all the algos know at this point.

 
RUSF18 said:
Anyone with index funds thinking of getting out right now? I never expected us to be up a bit at this point, which to me feels like a miracle and that the real volatility is coming. 

Said another way, if 10 hours ago someone told you that you could go back in time and sell off prior to yesterday's close, knowing Trump would win and futures were down 800ish at one point, would you have done it?
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I'm thinking the same thing. Hard to pull the trigger here given the lack of panic though.

The super cynic in me says all this election is really showing us is that big money knows its still running the show, the players in various governments are just a sham. It's still the Rs in power - they haven't exactly been hammering big business lately.

 
Gr00vus said:
I'm thinking the same thing. Hard to pull the trigger here given the lack of panic though.

The super cynic in me says all this election is really showing us is that big money knows its still running the show, the players in various governments are just a sham. It's still the Rs in power - they haven't exactly been hammering big business lately.
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Agreed. I legit feel like I'm being greedy at this point. What gains am I expecting to see that I'd be missing out on?

 
RUSF18 said:
Agreed. I legit feel like I'm being greedy at this point. What gains am I expecting to see that I'd be missing out on?
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Maybe sell half of your holdings? Would still need to find a safe place to park u.s. dollars i guess.

 
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RUSF18 said:
Anyone with index funds thinking of getting out right now? I never expected us to be up a bit at this point, which to me feels like a miracle and that the real volatility is coming. 

Said another way, if 10 hours ago someone told you that you could go back in time and sell off prior to yesterday's close, knowing Trump would win and futures were down 800ish at one point, would you have done it?
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To your first question, no.  But I will rebalance soon which means selling off some large cap stock. 

 
On the open bought:

GIS

CVX

SEP

Utilities I have owned for decades are looking attractive today like NEE, PPL, ED, SRE, XEL

And  VZ again looks cheap. All those utilities are nice if you need an entry point. 

 
What do people think on Smith & Wesson $SWHC. It seems over sold / over reaction. This is down 10% right now. Seems pretty attractive in the 24's.

 
I think stocks will have a great year next year. I would not be so quick to get out. If Trump moves the needle on industrial jobs which was the #1 priority of his entire campaign (and national security) then we could see a monster year in 2017 for almost every single sector.

 
I did sell off my S&P fund but left everything as is in retirement accounts and with individual stocks. If I miss a run in the next month or so, so be it. 

 
Who panicked & sold at Dow futures down 800+. Man, what a butt####ing those people took. Bunch of people in Asia are getting butt####ed right now.

FTSE, DAX, CAC all 1% higher.

 
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NREC34 said:
I'm genuinely shocked at the market today. 
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Ditto. Strangely Eliott waves predicted this pattern or so I am reading. Supposed to rise to S&P 2180 or so, fall back to 2150 or so and then off to the races over the next year or so to possibly as high as S&P 2350.

From Nov. 7th.

For months now, we have been looking for the market to pullback toward the 2065-2090 region on the S&P 500 SPX, +0.95% Finally, the pullback has run its course and has taken us down to our target. However, for us to maintain a strong bullish bias in the larger picture, the bulls are going to have to step up in the coming week.

With the move down last week, we have just about completed a 5 wave c-wave within the 5th wave of an ending diagonal. While the final 5th wave can still extend a bit lower, I would not expect a larger downside move to occur from here if our expectations are correct. In fact, I noted last week that a break of 2030SPX and 111 in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM, +2.25%  would take me out of a bullish perspective on the market, and move me to neutral.

In addition to us just about completing our pattern to the downside, and many indicators moving toward their bottoming regions, some of our other analysts at Elliottwavetrader.net are seeing bottoming signs in their work as well. Our fractal quant analyst has weekly "buy" signals developing in his fractal-based algorithm. Moreover, Dr. Cari Bourette, of Markemood.net, also sees the negative sentiment that has been pushing the market lower as bottoming in the very near term.

For now, as long as the market remains below 2098SPX, we may still see some extensions a bit lower in the market. But once the market moves strongly through the 2098SPX level and is able to continue through 2125SPX, that is our initial indication that we could have a long-term low in place, and finally begin our run to 2350SPX next.






The reason I say that I want to see the market move "strongly" through those levels is because that is what is normally seen once an ending diagonal completes. An ending diagonal builds a lot of compression as the market moves back and forth within the confines of its down-trending channel. Once it completes, you usually see a violent move in the opposite direction, which takes us back to the point from which it began and it does so very quickly.

That means that once we complete this diagonal down and the market turns up strongly, it should not stop until we get back toward the 2180SPX region, which would then complete wave 1 of wave (iii). This action would confirm that the market has bottomed, and a pullback toward the 2140-2160SPX region should be bought for the impending rally taking us to 2350SPX next.

So, as the world prepares for the election of the new leader of the free world, I think it is quite clear that we should be expecting extreme volatility in the market. Our expectation is that it will be exhibited in a strong move higher, as long as we do not break below 2030SPX. However, a break down below 2030SPX would move me to the sidelines for now.

 
lod001 said:
Who panicked & sold at Dow futures down 800+. Man, what a butt####ing those people took. Bunch of people in Asia are getting butt####ed right now.

FTSE, DAX, CAC all 1% higher.
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Overnight future stuff is usually driven by hedge funds and inverse etf trading on a system with low volume. Actual paper losses might be quite small.

 
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