Todem
Footballguy
Not until we know rates are done moving higher.
Once cuts start (they will just a matter of when and patience is what is needed in that regard) that will reverse and it will be a fast reversal.
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Stock Thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Once cuts start (they will just a matter of when and patience is what is needed in that regard) that will reverse and it will be a fast reversal.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Opened 1/2 position in XLU at 57.10.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Just 50 more days like this please.
Capella
Footballguy
Would be nice.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Crazy how decimated long bond funds have gotten. Safe part of most retirees portfolios down 40% from the high.
Nugget
Footballguy
My read is another 25 basis point increases in November. I'd guess we start cutting rates 2nd half next year, but I think right now only 50 bps come back in 2024. Inflation is going to linger as we still can 't produce enough goods/get enough workers. I bonds are going to look fantastic next month.
culdeus
Footballguy
I bonds are capped at like 10k a person though?
Capella
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Anybody hiring?
Todem
Footballguy
That’s a reasonable assumption. But once that cutting starts and “Fed speak” get’s dovish while they do it….the markets will take off.
They need to pay back their student loans.I thought nobody wanted to work?
Capella
Footballguy
Stocks crashed lmaoI thought nobody wanted to work?
ChiefD
Footballguy
Interesting. I would actually like to hear more about this. We may be moving next year and the thought of taking out a mortgage at close to 8% makes me want to puke. It wouldn't be for much since we will have a ton of equity in my house now when we sell, but still.
This volatility is getting ridiculous.Stocks crashed lmaoI thought nobody wanted to work?
Sand
Footballguy
This volatility is getting ridiculous.Stocks crashed lmaoI thought nobody wanted to work?
Historically totally normal. Self fulfilling prophecy - everyone expects September to be awful and it is. Everyone expects October to be volatile and that makes it so.
I don't expect above average returns, though. In fact, in my long term thinking I've factored in about a 30-40% chance that, on an inflation adjusted basis, we never get back to 2021 highs in our lifetimes. The overhang of the national debt is a massive depressor - Japan all over again. To break even we should be at ~5350 today. We're 20% down and I don't see that kind of jump anytime soon, if ever.
All that said, I bought a chunk of TLT today. Upgraded from IEF, if you can call it that. Went back and looked - TLT is at almost exactly a 50% drawdown. I don't expect a double going back as I don't see ZIRP anytime soon, but the risk reward is pretty good now. I don't think I'll kick myself in 3 years for this one. We'll see.
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Sand
Footballguy
No worries, after a year or so they'll revise this way, way down like they always do. Slackers be slackers.I thought nobody wanted to work?
4-5 years ago mortgages were at 3 - 3.5% and risk free rate on cash was about 0%
now mortgage are about 7.5 - 8% and risk free rate on cash is about 5.5%
just saying
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Yeah, Eliot was full of crap. October is the cruelest month.This volatility is getting ridiculous.Stocks crashed lmaoI thought nobody wanted to work?
Historically totally normal. Self fulfilling prophecy - everyone expects September to be awful and it is. Everyone expects October to be volatile and that makes it so.
I don't expect above average returns, though. In fact, in my long term thinking I've factored in about a 30-40% chance that, on an inflation adjusted basis, we never get back to 2021 highs in our lifetimes. The overhang of the national debt is a massive depressor - Japan all over again. To break even we should be at ~5350 today. We're 20% down and I don't see that kind of jump anytime soon, if ever.
jwb
Footballguy
4-5 years ago mortgages were at 3 - 3.5% and risk free rate on cash was about 0%
now mortgage are about 7.5 - 8% and risk free rate on cash is about 5.5%
just saying
Kind of a wash. But doing what he did would help me sleep better at night, which is priceless. I like it. If it's a long-term home, I like it even more.
Sand
Footballguy
The position of **** You. Best financial advice ever, encapsulated in a couple minutes.4-5 years ago mortgages were at 3 - 3.5% and risk free rate on cash was about 0%
now mortgage are about 7.5 - 8% and risk free rate on cash is about 5.5%
just saying
Kind of a wash. But doing what he did would help me sleep better at night, which is priceless. I like it. If it's a long-term home, I like it even more.
Culdeus, I like the move.
The Gambler - Fuck You
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
m.youtube.com
Todem
Footballguy
Wow…..I want revisit this in 3-5 years…..I don’t share that viewpoint at all.This volatility is getting ridiculous.Stocks crashed lmaoI thought nobody wanted to work?
Historically totally normal. Self fulfilling prophecy - everyone expects September to be awful and it is. Everyone expects October to be volatile and that makes it so.
I don't expect above average returns, though. In fact, in my long term thinking I've factored in about a 30-40% chance that, on an inflation adjusted basis, we never get back to 2021 highs in our lifetimes. The overhang of the national debt is a massive depressor - Japan all over again. To break even we should be at ~5350 today. We're 20% down and I don't see that kind of jump anytime soon, if ever.
All that said, I bought a chunk of TLT today. Upgraded from IEF, if you can call it that. Went back and looked - TLT is at almost exactly a 50% drawdown. I don't expect a double going back as I don't see ZIRP anytime soon, but the risk reward is pretty good now. I don't think I'll kick myself in 3 years for this one. We'll see.
identikit
Footballguy
So XOM is trying to buy PXD
https://investorplace.com/2023/10/p...ock-rises-as-exxon-mobil-nears-takeover-deal/
PXD jumped 10% today
Time to sell or?
https://investorplace.com/2023/10/p...ock-rises-as-exxon-mobil-nears-takeover-deal/
PXD jumped 10% today
Time to sell or?
culdeus
Footballguy
One funny aspect of this, as we went thru the process I felt like I had to apologize.The position of **** You. Best financial advice ever, encapsulated in a couple minutes.4-5 years ago mortgages were at 3 - 3.5% and risk free rate on cash was about 0%
now mortgage are about 7.5 - 8% and risk free rate on cash is about 5.5%
just saying
Kind of a wash. But doing what he did would help me sleep better at night, which is priceless. I like it. If it's a long-term home, I like it even more.
Culdeus, I like the move.
The Gambler - Fuck You
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
Caveman33
Footballguy
I have about 20K in student loans which are now accruing interest at 3-5%. I want to keep these loans outstanding because I earn very little income and the loans might turn into free money. But now that interest is starting to accrue, I want to invest 20K in something that would cover the interest. Are T-Bills the way to go or is there something safer/better? Also, what is the best way to buy T-Bills?
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I would just put it in SHV or something similar so you have the most liquidity. Not sure I understand your loans may turn into free money comment. Something about the 10 year loan forgiveness?
Caveman33
Footballguy
Yes, if I continue to earn very little for the next 10-15 years or it's always possible that new legislation could pass that causes forgiveness. I figure it's worth holding and seeing what happens.
Capella
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
This is getting stupid.
It really is. No real news or change but still large moves every day.
Sand
Footballguy
October is known for high volatility. It's expected, therefore it is.
Yep, I think there is more and more programmatic/algorithm buying based on historical trends. I almost wonder if that’s going to make things more predictable. Kind of like a self-fulfilling prophecy.
jwb
Footballguy
Happily, this may not age well
(edit: and the above comment may not age well either. This is why I could never day trade).
Honestly, the economic data is good / strong. The economy is not in bad shape. I feel we are getting used to the fact that "higher" rates are here to stay, and we're learning to live with it. There is only so much you can fear another 25 basis point increase and punish stocks for good economic news. At some point, good news is indeed good news.
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The Duff Man
Footballguy
Apologies for the basic question but this is where my level of knowledge is 
What is the feeling in this crowd about adjusting ratio of stocks in your retirement portfolio based on the climate for the next year or so?
I am 48 and have a “normal” ratio for someone of my age (17 years to retirement) and risk tolerance (high), about 70% stocks.
Have folks in here divested themselves of some and moved to a more conservative approach?
Wondering if I should keep following this advice:
“When the economy is performing well, it's tempting to believe that the stock market will continue to rise forever, and that belief may encourage you to chase higher profits by holding more stocks. This is a mistake. Follow a planned asset allocation strategy precisely because you can't time the marketand don't know when a correction is coming. If you let market conditions influence your allocation strategy, then you're not actually following a strategy.”
Thanks!!
What is the feeling in this crowd about adjusting ratio of stocks in your retirement portfolio based on the climate for the next year or so?
I am 48 and have a “normal” ratio for someone of my age (17 years to retirement) and risk tolerance (high), about 70% stocks.
Have folks in here divested themselves of some and moved to a more conservative approach?
Wondering if I should keep following this advice:
“When the economy is performing well, it's tempting to believe that the stock market will continue to rise forever, and that belief may encourage you to chase higher profits by holding more stocks. This is a mistake. Follow a planned asset allocation strategy precisely because you can't time the marketand don't know when a correction is coming. If you let market conditions influence your allocation strategy, then you're not actually following a strategy.”
Thanks!!
Sand
Footballguy
Speaking of that there is a good article about SEC head Gary Gensler saying AI will cause a huge crash - "it's inevitable". I think he's a moron in many ways, but here he's dead on, IMO. AI isn't going to smooth things out, it's going to amplify volatility. Big time.
SEC Head: Financial Crash Caused by AI 'Nearly Unavoidable'
The head of the SEC said that without proper regulation, the artificial intelligence market could lead to an economic crisis as soon as the late 2020s.
www.vice.com
Sand
Footballguy
Time in the market >>>> Timing the marketApologies for the basic question but this is where my level of knowledge is
What is the feeling in this crowd about adjusting ratio of stocks in your retirement portfolio based on the climate for the next year or so?
I am 48 and have a “normal” ratio for someone of my age (17 years to retirement) and risk tolerance (high), about 70% stocks.
Have folks in here divested themselves of some and moved to a more conservative approach?
Wondering if I should keep following this advice:
“When the economy is performing well, it's tempting to believe that the stock market will continue to rise forever, and that belief may encourage you to chase higher profits by holding more stocks. This is a mistake. Follow a planned asset allocation strategy precisely because you can't time the marketand don't know when a correction is coming. If you let market conditions influence your allocation strategy, then you're not actually following a strategy.”
Thanks!!
Without knowing the future and with your timeline I'd just ride the ride. Once you get close to retirement you have to worry about SORR - that should cause some change in stock/bond allocation. Ways off for you, though.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I’d ride at a stock percentage that allows you to sleep at night if a 30% drop occurred tomorrow. Something that will keep you from panicking at the bottom. Would not move in and out. People who do that tend to miss those big up days that make up the majority of your gains.Apologies for the basic question but this is where my level of knowledge is
What is the feeling in this crowd about adjusting ratio of stocks in your retirement portfolio based on the climate for the next year or so?
I am 48 and have a “normal” ratio for someone of my age (17 years to retirement) and risk tolerance (high), about 70% stocks.
Have folks in here divested themselves of some and moved to a more conservative approach?
Wondering if I should keep following this advice:
“When the economy is performing well, it's tempting to believe that the stock market will continue to rise forever, and that belief may encourage you to chase higher profits by holding more stocks. This is a mistake. Follow a planned asset allocation strategy precisely because you can't time the marketand don't know when a correction is coming. If you let market conditions influence your allocation strategy, then you're not actually following a strategy.”
Thanks!!
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Thanks, confirms what I was thinking. Lots of time horizon still for me (unfortunately 
)
)
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
No worries, after a year or so they'll revise this way, way down like they always do. Slackers be slackers.I thought nobody wanted to work?
For a guy who is undoubted sharp with numbers, you sure do have a huge blind spot Sand. I can't help but wonder if your political bias (which we all have) hasn't cost you a bunch of $ over the years.
Sand
Footballguy
No worries, after a year or so they'll revise this way, way down like they always do. Slackers be slackers.I thought nobody wanted to work?
For a guy who is undoubted sharp with numbers, you sure do have a huge blind spot Sand. I can't help but wonder if your political bias (which we all have) hasn't cost you a bunch of $ over the years.
This is pretty common and revisions are almost always downward. Honestly over the last couple years I've lost unexpected money in bonds, not stocks. I even shortened duration a couple years ago (which was good), but still the 250 year bear market in bonds last year and the continued downward swing have taken a bite. Other than that I'm still running at 65/35 or so and plugging along.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Agreed, although moving into more defensive or value stocks or ETFs might help.I’d ride at a stock percentage that allows you to sleep at night if a 30% drop occurred tomorrow. Something that will keep you from panicking at the bottom. Would not move in and out. People who do that tend to miss those big up days that make up the majority of your gains.Apologies for the basic question but this is where my level of knowledge is
What is the feeling in this crowd about adjusting ratio of stocks in your retirement portfolio based on the climate for the next year or so?
I am 48 and have a “normal” ratio for someone of my age (17 years to retirement) and risk tolerance (high), about 70% stocks.
Have folks in here divested themselves of some and moved to a more conservative approach?
Wondering if I should keep following this advice:
“When the economy is performing well, it's tempting to believe that the stock market will continue to rise forever, and that belief may encourage you to chase higher profits by holding more stocks. This is a mistake. Follow a planned asset allocation strategy precisely because you can't time the marketand don't know when a correction is coming. If you let market conditions influence your allocation strategy, then you're not actually following a strategy.”
Thanks!!
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
From your link: “The change is -0.2% and the average adjustment over the last 10 years has been 0.1%,” Chris Rupkey, economist with FwdBonds, wrote in a note Wednesday. “We don’t see any sign here that the labor market is secretly weak.”No worries, after a year or so they'll revise this way, way down like they always do. Slackers be slackers.I thought nobody wanted to work?
For a guy who is undoubted sharp with numbers, you sure do have a huge blind spot Sand. I can't help but wonder if your political bias (which we all have) hasn't cost you a bunch of $ over the years.
This is pretty common and revisions are almost always downward. Honestly over the last couple years I've lost unexpected money in bonds, not stocks. I even shortened duration a couple years ago (which was good), but still the 250 year bear market in bonds last year and the continued downward swing have taken a bite. Other than that I'm still running at 65/35 or so and plugging along.
So over the last 10 years - the average annual revision has actually been up, not down.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I recall folks talking about TLT looking good when it was in the low 90s.
It's under 83 right now.
Thoughts?
It's under 83 right now.
Thoughts?
I bought 50 shares at $84 recently and will add 50 more once I free up some cash. I expect it to be a long term hold for me.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I agree but damn that thing has been a drain on conservative portfolios
culdeus
Footballguy
Can someone explain the airlines to me? The travel market seems to still be very high right now, yet most of the airlines are sitting near 10-year lows. Near covid lows. United Airlines has a P/E ratio of 4
Is it all just oil?
Anticipating skyrocketing costs to pay the staff, oil, and the price of all the parts and new planes are skyrocketing. It is really hard to comprehend whether biz travel is "back".it would seem a lot of travel now is early planned and cheap.
