Stock Thread (3 Viewers)

[McBokonon]

Whenever I sell the money goes into SPAXX.

Then you’re good to go

 

[ghostguy123]

Whelp, ya learn something new every day.

 

[Bogart]

Newbie question: I know that if it's too good to be true, it's too good to be true, but has anyone dipped their toes into the ValueMax ETFs? TSLY, APLY, NVDY and others. I'm not going to pretend to know about synthetic covered calls, but those dividend distribution rates are pretty insane.

Elevate Shares homepage

 

[Bogart]

DWAC with a Hail Mary today got their 65% votes to extend the SPAC for another year. Looks like the merger with TMTG should happen sooner than later.

Stock up 10%, or you know “to the moon” for its investors.

 

[McBokonon]

AMC selling 40 million more shares.

 

[Sand]

AMC selling 40 million more shares.

 

[stbugs]

AMC selling 40 million more shares.

Note that with the reverse split, it’s basically selling 400 million shares a couple weeks ago. That’s 25% more shares outstanding.

 

[Desert_Power]

AAPL

 

[Capella]

Guess it will be another ugly day. Can we get to November already.

 

[stbugs]

GME is down and I was shocked that last night it was bid up over 15%. Made no sense to me as the results were meh with a 2.5% growth rate and still a loss even with all of their cuts like the wallet! If another company had mass executive turnover, little growth, no profit, no future direction and cancelled analyst calls, their stock would be obliterated. I saw some positive press and the only thing it referenced for future was the mention of possible store closings and other not profitable ventures (like the wallet) and then of course that Ryan Cohen bought another $10M in shares in June. They have plenty of cash to limp around for years but they still can’t make a profit even in a quarter where they reduced costs by 25%.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

GME is down and I was shocked that last night it was bid up over 15%. Made no sense to me as the results were meh with a 2.5% growth rate and still a loss even with all of their cuts like the wallet! If another company had mass executive turnover, little growth, no profit, no future direction and cancelled analyst calls, their stock would be obliterated. I saw some positive press and the only thing it referenced for future was the mention of possible store closings and other not profitable ventures (like the wallet) and then of course that Ryan Cohen bought another $10M in shares in June. They have plenty of cash to limp around for years but they still can’t make a profit even in a quarter where they reduced costs by 25%.

just wait...

 

[stbugs]

GME is down and I was shocked that last night it was bid up over 15%. Made no sense to me as the results were meh with a 2.5% growth rate and still a loss even with all of their cuts like the wallet! If another company had mass executive turnover, little growth, no profit, no future direction and cancelled analyst calls, their stock would be obliterated. I saw some positive press and the only thing it referenced for future was the mention of possible store closings and other not profitable ventures (like the wallet) and then of course that Ryan Cohen bought another $10M in shares in June. They have plenty of cash to limp around for years but they still can’t make a profit even in a quarter where they reduced costs by 25%.

just wait...

The thing I love the most is Cohen buying another 1% of shares being the only real propping up of the price. They’ve basically cut everything out so basically they are like a not profitable department or two of Best Buy. We can’t compare P/Es without the profit but if GME was profitable/paid a dividend like Best Buy, the stock price would be $6 based on total sales.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

GME is down and I was shocked that last night it was bid up over 15%. Made no sense to me as the results were meh with a 2.5% growth rate and still a loss even with all of their cuts like the wallet! If another company had mass executive turnover, little growth, no profit, no future direction and cancelled analyst calls, their stock would be obliterated. I saw some positive press and the only thing it referenced for future was the mention of possible store closings and other not profitable ventures (like the wallet) and then of course that Ryan Cohen bought another $10M in shares in June. They have plenty of cash to limp around for years but they still can’t make a profit even in a quarter where they reduced costs by 25%.

just wait...

The thing I love the most is Cohen buying another 1% of shares being the only real propping up of the price. They’ve basically cut everything out so basically they are like a not profitable department or two of Best Buy. We can’t compare P/Es without the profit but if GME was profitable/paid a dividend like Best Buy, the stock price would be $6 based on total sales.

Where is our resident alien with his take?

 

[McBokonon]

GME is down and I was shocked that last night it was bid up over 15%. Made no sense to me as the results were meh with a 2.5% growth rate and still a loss even with all of their cuts like the wallet! If another company had mass executive turnover, little growth, no profit, no future direction and cancelled analyst calls, their stock would be obliterated. I saw some positive press and the only thing it referenced for future was the mention of possible store closings and other not profitable ventures (like the wallet) and then of course that Ryan Cohen bought another $10M in shares in June. They have plenty of cash to limp around for years but they still can’t make a profit even in a quarter where they reduced costs by 25%.

just wait...

The thing I love the most is Cohen buying another 1% of shares being the only real propping up of the price. They’ve basically cut everything out so basically they are like a not profitable department or two of Best Buy. We can’t compare P/Es without the profit but if GME was profitable/paid a dividend like Best Buy, the stock price would be $6 based on total sales.

Where is our resident alien with his take?

Last seen Apr 18, 2023

 

[Dr. Octopus]

GME is down and I was shocked that last night it was bid up over 15%. Made no sense to me as the results were meh with a 2.5% growth rate and still a loss even with all of their cuts like the wallet! If another company had mass executive turnover, little growth, no profit, no future direction and cancelled analyst calls, their stock would be obliterated. I saw some positive press and the only thing it referenced for future was the mention of possible store closings and other not profitable ventures (like the wallet) and then of course that Ryan Cohen bought another $10M in shares in June. They have plenty of cash to limp around for years but they still can’t make a profit even in a quarter where they reduced costs by 25%.

just wait...

The thing I love the most is Cohen buying another 1% of shares being the only real propping up of the price. They’ve basically cut everything out so basically they are like a not profitable department or two of Best Buy. We can’t compare P/Es without the profit but if GME was profitable/paid a dividend like Best Buy, the stock price would be $6 based on total sales.

Where is our resident alien with his take?

Last seen Apr 18, 2023

maybe he got on the

 

[McBokonon]

Isn't the common thread with meme stocks to impact the stock price through coordinated retail trading efforts at reddit and similar sites? Didn't think it was really about the company per se, like the interest isn't that Bed Bath & Beyond sells things available at Target as much that it's a stock that's more easily manipulated by the coordinated actions of retail traders.

No, you’re right. Bed Bath also has the added Ryan Cohen factor, who knows how to profit from these people while somehow convincing them he’s Robin Hood.

SEC investigating Cohen’s heroic Bed Bath transactions: https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/sec-probes-ryan-cohens-bed-bath-beyond-trades-e9f35b81

 

[Sand]

Isn't the common thread with meme stocks to impact the stock price through coordinated retail trading efforts at reddit and similar sites? Didn't think it was really about the company per se, like the interest isn't that Bed Bath & Beyond sells things available at Target as much that it's a stock that's more easily manipulated by the coordinated actions of retail traders.

No, you’re right. Bed Bath also has the added Ryan Cohen factor, who knows how to profit from these people while somehow convincing them he’s Robin Hood.

SEC investigating Cohen’s heroic Bed Bath transactions: https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/sec-probes-ryan-cohens-bed-bath-beyond-trades-e9f35b81

I am shocked, SHOCKED, that there is gambling going on in this establishment.

----

I haven't bought any equities for a while. With the sharp drop I waded in on KVUE this morning. I expect over the long term it will do fine; good dividend and about as stable a business as there is. Still have a bunch of JNJ - maybe I'll get more dumped on me that way. I haven't paid too much attention to the dynamics of the split, other than it seemed needlessly complicated.

 

[stbugs]

Isn't the common thread with meme stocks to impact the stock price through coordinated retail trading efforts at reddit and similar sites? Didn't think it was really about the company per se, like the interest isn't that Bed Bath & Beyond sells things available at Target as much that it's a stock that's more easily manipulated by the coordinated actions of retail traders.

No, you’re right. Bed Bath also has the added Ryan Cohen factor, who knows how to profit from these people while somehow convincing them he’s Robin Hood.

SEC investigating Cohen’s heroic Bed Bath transactions: https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/sec-probes-ryan-cohens-bed-bath-beyond-trades-e9f35b81

I am shocked, SHOCKED, that there is gambling going on in this establishment.

----

I haven't bought any equities for a while. With the sharp drop I waded in on KVUE this morning. I expect over the long term it will do fine; good dividend and about as stable a business as there is. Still have a bunch of JNJ - maybe I'll get more dumped on me that way. I haven't paid too much attention to the dynamics of the split, other than it seemed needlessly complicated.

That was one of the worst spin-offs I’ve ever seen. I still don’t get it. Kenvue went public so I assume JNJ shareholders got stock but then there was another distribution but you could game the system if you had less than 100 shares or something like that? So confusing. I read something about how to make free money and it hurt my head and it ignore the fact that a stock could drop, especially if lots of people run the game. Not worth trying to figure it out.

 

[stbugs]

Isn't the common thread with meme stocks to impact the stock price through coordinated retail trading efforts at reddit and similar sites? Didn't think it was really about the company per se, like the interest isn't that Bed Bath & Beyond sells things available at Target as much that it's a stock that's more easily manipulated by the coordinated actions of retail traders.

No, you’re right. Bed Bath also has the added Ryan Cohen factor, who knows how to profit from these people while somehow convincing them he’s Robin Hood.

SEC investigating Cohen’s heroic Bed Bath transactions: https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/sec-probes-ryan-cohens-bed-bath-beyond-trades-e9f35b81

But Ryan tweets frogs and ice cream! He’d never try and make money off of the backs of the folks who blindly support him. He’s out for justice against HF scum like @General Malaise. Ryan deserved $20-30 a share not the current $0.22 a share. He’s like AA the great silverback and all his minions who only sold all of their vested AMC stock at $500+ (split adjusted) to make sure they could retire and support their children. Think about the children.

* Isn’t it amazing that the execs dumped literally all their vested shares at $500+ while the idiots that “still” think highly of them hold shares now at $7.68? I feel like someone once said this would be the greatest wealth transfer in the world. He was right!

 

[fruity pebbles]

Isn't the common thread with meme stocks to impact the stock price through coordinated retail trading efforts at reddit and similar sites? Didn't think it was really about the company per se, like the interest isn't that Bed Bath & Beyond sells things available at Target as much that it's a stock that's more easily manipulated by the coordinated actions of retail traders.

No, you’re right. Bed Bath also has the added Ryan Cohen factor, who knows how to profit from these people while somehow convincing them he’s Robin Hood.

SEC investigating Cohen’s heroic Bed Bath transactions: https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/sec-probes-ryan-cohens-bed-bath-beyond-trades-e9f35b81

But Ryan tweets frogs and ice cream! He’d never try and make money off of the backs of the folks who blindly support him. He’s out for justice against HF scum like @General Malaise. Ryan deserved $20-30 a share not the current $0.22 a share. He’s like AA the great silverback and all his minions who only sold all of their vested AMC stock at $500+ (split adjusted) to make sure they could retire and support their children. Think about the children.

* Isn’t it amazing that the execs dumped literally all their vested shares at $500+ while the idiots that “still” think highly of them hold shares now at $7.68? I feel like someone once said this would be the greatest wealth transfer in the world. He was right!

Ferraris or food stamps…….

 

[stbugs]

Isn't the common thread with meme stocks to impact the stock price through coordinated retail trading efforts at reddit and similar sites? Didn't think it was really about the company per se, like the interest isn't that Bed Bath & Beyond sells things available at Target as much that it's a stock that's more easily manipulated by the coordinated actions of retail traders.

No, you’re right. Bed Bath also has the added Ryan Cohen factor, who knows how to profit from these people while somehow convincing them he’s Robin Hood.

SEC investigating Cohen’s heroic Bed Bath transactions: https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/sec-probes-ryan-cohens-bed-bath-beyond-trades-e9f35b81

But Ryan tweets frogs and ice cream! He’d never try and make money off of the backs of the folks who blindly support him. He’s out for justice against HF scum like @General Malaise. Ryan deserved $20-30 a share not the current $0.22 a share. He’s like AA the great silverback and all his minions who only sold all of their vested AMC stock at $500+ (split adjusted) to make sure they could retire and support their children. Think about the children.

* Isn’t it amazing that the execs dumped literally all their vested shares at $500+ while the idiots that “still” think highly of them hold shares now at $7.68? I feel like someone once said this would be the greatest wealth transfer in the world. He was right!

Ferraris or food stamps…….

We know who got the Ferraris.

 

[DevilDog919]

Have a decent amount of cash that I will be needing next spring. Recommendations for an almost completely safe place to park this for 6-8 months and get some decent return?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Have a decent amount of cash that I will be needing next spring. Recommendations for an almost completely safe place to park this for 6-8 months and get some decent return?

Money market account.

 

[General Malaise]

Have a decent amount of cash that I will be needing next spring. Recommendations for an almost completely safe place to park this for 6-8 months and get some decent return?

6 month CD

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Isn't the common thread with meme stocks to impact the stock price through coordinated retail trading efforts at reddit and similar sites? Didn't think it was really about the company per se, like the interest isn't that Bed Bath & Beyond sells things available at Target as much that it's a stock that's more easily manipulated by the coordinated actions of retail traders.

No, you’re right. Bed Bath also has the added Ryan Cohen factor, who knows how to profit from these people while somehow convincing them he’s Robin Hood.

SEC investigating Cohen’s heroic Bed Bath transactions: https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/sec-probes-ryan-cohens-bed-bath-beyond-trades-e9f35b81

I am shocked, SHOCKED, that there is gambling going on in this establishment.

----

I haven't bought any equities for a while. With the sharp drop I waded in on KVUE this morning. I expect over the long term it will do fine; good dividend and about as stable a business as there is. Still have a bunch of JNJ - maybe I'll get more dumped on me that way. I haven't paid too much attention to the dynamics of the split, other than it seemed needlessly complicated.

Hmm...basis on KVUE is $7.92 a share and it's at $21.30 now. Seems fun.

 

[stbugs]

Isn't the common thread with meme stocks to impact the stock price through coordinated retail trading efforts at reddit and similar sites? Didn't think it was really about the company per se, like the interest isn't that Bed Bath & Beyond sells things available at Target as much that it's a stock that's more easily manipulated by the coordinated actions of retail traders.

No, you’re right. Bed Bath also has the added Ryan Cohen factor, who knows how to profit from these people while somehow convincing them he’s Robin Hood.

SEC investigating Cohen’s heroic Bed Bath transactions: https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/sec-probes-ryan-cohens-bed-bath-beyond-trades-e9f35b81

I am shocked, SHOCKED, that there is gambling going on in this establishment.

----

I haven't bought any equities for a while. With the sharp drop I waded in on KVUE this morning. I expect over the long term it will do fine; good dividend and about as stable a business as there is. Still have a bunch of JNJ - maybe I'll get more dumped on me that way. I haven't paid too much attention to the dynamics of the split, other than it seemed needlessly complicated.

Hmm...basis on KVUE is $7.92 a share and it's at $21.30 now. Seems fun.

How is your basis $7.92? The all time low of the stock is $20.38 and it’s basically just gone down since the spinoff price. Is that based on the JNJ price?

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Isn't the common thread with meme stocks to impact the stock price through coordinated retail trading efforts at reddit and similar sites? Didn't think it was really about the company per se, like the interest isn't that Bed Bath & Beyond sells things available at Target as much that it's a stock that's more easily manipulated by the coordinated actions of retail traders.

No, you’re right. Bed Bath also has the added Ryan Cohen factor, who knows how to profit from these people while somehow convincing them he’s Robin Hood.

SEC investigating Cohen’s heroic Bed Bath transactions: https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/sec-probes-ryan-cohens-bed-bath-beyond-trades-e9f35b81

I am shocked, SHOCKED, that there is gambling going on in this establishment.

----

I haven't bought any equities for a while. With the sharp drop I waded in on KVUE this morning. I expect over the long term it will do fine; good dividend and about as stable a business as there is. Still have a bunch of JNJ - maybe I'll get more dumped on me that way. I haven't paid too much attention to the dynamics of the split, other than it seemed needlessly complicated.

Hmm...basis on KVUE is $7.92 a share and it's at $21.30 now. Seems fun.

How is your basis $7.92? The all time low of the stock is $20.38 and it’s basically just gone down since the spinoff price. Is that based on the JNJ price?

Yes based on JNJ.

 

[McBokonon]

RTX

Buy buy buy…..at the very minimum take a half position and see how it reacts to any downgrades tomorrow.

Great long term play here. Take advantage.

Why's it down so much today?

Some passenger jet engines have some materials issues requiring inspection and maybe revision. RTX took a 500M charge against the issue.

Getting beat up again today due to an engine kerfuffle, reducing pretax profit by $3-3.5 billion. If you think these are both just one (two) time blips, then this looks like a good opportunity. If you start worrying about governance concerns, then fair enough. I had governance concerns on EBS and BA but basically got told not to be a worrying Walter.

I don’t have the same concerns here as I did them, though. It’s on my watchlist for sure, now.

 

[Sand]

RTX

Buy buy buy…..at the very minimum take a half position and see how it reacts to any downgrades tomorrow.

Great long term play here. Take advantage.

Why's it down so much today?

Some passenger jet engines have some materials issues requiring inspection and maybe revision. RTX took a 500M charge against the issue.

Getting beat up again today due to an engine kerfuffle, reducing pretax profit by $3-3.5 billion. If you think these are both just one (two) time blips, then this looks like a good opportunity. If you start worrying about governance concerns, then fair enough. I had governance concerns on EBS and BA but basically got told not to be a worrying Walter.

I don’t have the same concerns here as I did them, though. It’s on my watchlist for sure, now.

I don't worry about governance, but do worry that the expenses keep climbing. This has escalated quickly.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Whelp looks like Instacart is finally IPO'ing so I guess I'll be able to see how large my loss is on those secondary shares I bought right at the peak. I'm guessing 80%-ish.

 

[SFBayDuck]

RTX

Buy buy buy…..at the very minimum take a half position and see how it reacts to any downgrades tomorrow.

Great long term play here. Take advantage.

You staying in this one after another round of downgrades? It's gapped down yet again below the $80ish range that has been support the past couple of years. Starting to feel like I grabbed a falling knife here.

 

[Todem]

RTX

Buy buy buy…..at the very minimum take a half position and see how it reacts to any downgrades tomorrow.

Great long term play here. Take advantage.

You staying in this one after another round of downgrades? It's gapped down yet again below the $80ish range that has been support the past couple of years. Starting to feel like I grabbed a falling knife here.

Staying long.

 

[Capella]

Up down up down up down up down

 

[jwb]

Up down up down up down up down

Was really hoping this week would be the breakout of this cycle. Was shaping up that way, but no - it'll be another down week.

Two sideways months. Maybe I'll take Aug/Sept off next year.

 

[Capella]

Two sideways months. Maybe I'll take Aug/Sept off next year.

Yea these two months are traditionally pretty trash. Hoping Nov/Dec close us out strong.

 

[The Man With No Name]

Have a day UWMC!

Director Robert Verdun Acquires 40,000 Shares of UWM Holdings Corp​

Director Robert Verdun Acquires 40,000 Shares of UWM Holdings Corp

On September 13, 2023, Robert Verdun, a director at UWM Holdings Corp (NYSE:UWMC), made a significant investment in the company by purchasing 40,000 shares.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Capella]

Sheeeesh

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

Too many people have jobs.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Just the beginning of the pain

 

[Todem]

Too many people have jobs.

Yep.....we are doomed man!

Go figure.....the narrative is...the economy is too good. So no credit for you!!!!

 

[Capella]

Too many people have jobs.

I hate it.

 

[jwb]

Too many people have jobs.

Yep.....we are doomed man!

Go figure.....the narrative is...the economy is too good. So no credit for you!!!!

This narrative is very frustrating. People working and spending are usually good things.

This will eventually pass once everyone realizes we're not going back to ridiculously low rates again, and this is our new normal. But market-wise, it's probably going to hurt for awhile.

 

[Todem]

Too many people have jobs.

Yep.....we are doomed man!

Go figure.....the narrative is...the economy is too good. So no credit for you!!!!

This narrative is very frustrating. People working and spending are usually good things.

This will eventually pass once everyone realizes we're not going back to ridiculously low rates again, and this is our new normal. But market-wise, it's probably going to hurt for awhile.

Yep. Now we will go lower to a market neutral rate environment.

What that “neutral” or more accommodating target range rate looks like…well that is up for debate. But if experience and history has taught us anything I would venture to say that will fall in a fed funds target rate of 2.25-2.50% range.

Not the 0-.25% everyone got drunk on.

 

[The Z Machine]

I would venture to say that will fall in a fed funds target rate of 2.25-2.50% range.

There's nothing wrong with a fed rate like that. Economic growth can still happen with borrowing costs like that in place.

 

[Todem]

I would venture to say that will fall in a fed funds target rate of 2.25-2.50% range.

There's nothing wrong with a fed rate like that. Economic growth can still happen with borrowing costs like that in place.

Absolutely. And thats where we will head at some point. I have always believed and maintained the earliest we would see our first rate cut would be sometime in the 3rd quarter of 2024.

I think anything happening prior to that is wishful thinking unless the economy just all of a sudden tanks. Which
also does not look likely.

Is it slowing down? Yes. And rightfully so. The headwinds to an earlier timeline on rate cuts is the great strength of the job market and wage inflation.

When that cools off and growth slows a little more that is when I think they start cutting.

7 raises take 12-18 months to be digested by the economy in general.

But it is seeming like the Fed might actually pull off a soft landing….which was not what the market thought in 2022. This years market is not a classic bull market….that will come when the first wind of interest rates come from the Fed.

Then we will see “everything” go up.

My prediction (and I don’t like making them but what the heck) is all these 5% money markets…..enjoy them. We have a year left with them. And then they will start dropping. The rotation into risk assets will happen again once we see some easing.

 

[Sand]

Too many people have jobs.

Yep.....we are doomed man!

Go figure.....the narrative is...the economy is too good. So no credit for you!!!!

The narrative that we can't work with a full employment economy is nuts. Just take a 10,000ft view of that statement - seriously, WTF.

Absolutely. And thats where we will head at some point. I have always believed and maintained the earliest we would see our first rate cut would be sometime in the 3rd quarter of 2024.

I think anything happening prior to that is wishful thinking unless the economy just all of a sudden tanks. Which
also does not look likely.

Delinquencies are surging right now, so I wouldn't count those chickens. And we haven't gotten to commercial RE pain points yet.

Also, just to throw this out there, the Fed meeting this week was a complete whitewash and full of lies. Jerome could not say they were stopping raises for fear of market meltup and surging inflation as a response. So he lied, put on his stern teacher's voice and scolded the class that things will be bad for a while yet and they're pumping the brakes super hard. Eh - I bet they won't, but I bet the rhetoric will stay elevated on that point for as long as they can get away with it.

Because, let's face it, the worst economic prognosticator on earth is the Fed. We know they're not speaking from an ability to do the right thing at the right time.

 

[Todem]

Too many people have jobs.

Yep.....we are doomed man!

Go figure.....the narrative is...the economy is too good. So no credit for you!!!!

The narrative that we can't work with a full employment economy is nuts. Just take a 10,000ft view of that statement - seriously, WTF.

Absolutely. And thats where we will head at some point. I have always believed and maintained the earliest we would see our first rate cut would be sometime in the 3rd quarter of 2024.

I think anything happening prior to that is wishful thinking unless the economy just all of a sudden tanks. Which
also does not look likely.

Delinquencies are surging right now, so I wouldn't count those chickens. And we haven't gotten to commercial RE pain points yet.

Also, just to throw this out there, the Fed meeting this week was a complete whitewash and full of lies. Jerome could not say they were stopping raises for fear of market meltup and surging inflation as a response. So he lied, put on his stern teacher's voice and scolded the class that things will be bad for a while yet and they're pumping the brakes super hard. Eh - I bet they won't, but I bet the rhetoric will stay elevated on that point for as long as they can get away with it.

Because, let's face it, the worst economic prognosticator on earth is the Fed. We know they're not speaking from an ability to do the right thing at the right time.

I agree that narrative is insane.

But….this is what they are selling as a concern which is again…..insane.

Commercial RETS have been murdered already.

Know what you own in the commercial
REIT world.

Data centers and student housing is what I like. And I have no worries there.

Like I said the market this year is not a broad based rally at all.

But I am not nearly on the side of doom and gloom you seem to be on.

The market got rocked last year….stocks and bonds. Tech was massacred. So of course it bounced back….Nasdaq was down what…..31-32% in 2022?

Longer duration bonds are setting up for a rally once interest rates do get cut again. That’s a matter of time.

Oh and homeowners have a ton more equity in their homes now than back in the housing crash of 2006-2008.

A soft landing is a mild recession. I can see a mild to moderate recession….but it would be short lived because the Fed raised to a level they can cut from and they also at the same time tightened the balance sheet aggresively. Those are their two levers that can mitigate some volatility.

It is what it is and has been this way since I can remember. It’s part of it.

 

[pecorino]

Thoughts on TDOC? Trading at sub-$19. Cathie Wood just bought more which, really, not sure if that's an endorsement or a repellent. I used to own TDOC and the prospect of buying it back so cheaply is appealing but I haven't really done any research on it in months.

 

[Sand]

Too many people have jobs.

Yep.....we are doomed man!

Go figure.....the narrative is...the economy is too good. So no credit for you!!!!

The narrative that we can't work with a full employment economy is nuts. Just take a 10,000ft view of that statement - seriously, WTF.

Delinquencies are surging right now, so I wouldn't count those chickens. And we haven't gotten to commercial RE pain points yet.

Also, just to throw this out there, the Fed meeting this week was a complete whitewash and full of lies. Jerome could not say they were stopping raises for fear of market meltup and surging inflation as a response. So he lied, put on his stern teacher's voice and scolded the class that things will be bad for a while yet and they're pumping the brakes super hard. Eh - I bet they won't, but I bet the rhetoric will stay elevated on that point for as long as they can get away with it.

Because, let's face it, the worst economic prognosticator on earth is the Fed. We know they're not speaking from an ability to do the right thing at the right time.

I agree that narrative is insane.

But….this is what they are selling as a concern which is again…..insane.

Commercial RETS have been murdered already.

Know what you own in the commercial
REIT world.

Data centers and student housing is what I like. And I have no worries there.

Like I said the market this year is not a broad based rally at all.

But I am not nearly on the side of doom and gloom you seem to be on.

Between sticky inflation, CRE, the exhaustion of the American consumers excess savings, surging delinquencies, and stuff like this I can't say I'm optimistic.

Commercial RETS have been murdered already.

Know what you own in the commercial
REIT world.

Data centers and student housing is what I like. And I have no worries there.

I wanted to add a bit here - as we know these things (now CRE) fail slowly, then suddenly. IMO, we haven't hit the sudden part yet. I can easily see scenarios where regional banks start to really hemorrhage and need bailouts. Like the Savings and Loan bust, or worse.

Also, I think I still own some DLR, so I'm with you on that one.

 

[Caveman33]

With the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 28 and heading lower, I plan to start buying calls.