Stock Thread (4 Viewers)

[JB Breakfast Club]

NVDA go BOOM

 

[culdeus]

What are we referring to as the "credit issue"? The news about $1T and delinquency rates rising? While potentially concerning, look at it in the big picture.

If you look at US consumer debt as a percentage of GDP, we're right in the same range we've been in since 2013, and way below where we were from 2004-2012 or so. (you can see the data and play with timeframes here)

Delinquencies are indeed going up, and how quickly it's spiked is concerning. But it's still at relatively low rates historically, lower than at anytime from 1992-late 2012. Here's another look that has different numbers, but still shows we are at relatively low rates.

It sure looks to me like people got to used to spending, spending, spending with all of the stimmies and record low rates, and now are at the point where behavior will have to change (we always learn and adapt too slowly). But with employment still so strong, I'd be surprised if that doesn't level out a bit in the coming quarters.

Or are you guys talking about something else?

Keep in mind there's more than just the US on this planet. As credit becomes more constrained here it impacts dollar/X currency elsewhere, and if the dollar ratios get off now with a credit crunch bad bad **** can happen.

I would be very worried about delinquent credit, and the cost of credit. The cost of a car payment alone in the US has the potential to death spiral the autos, and as mentioned earlier the lack of mortage activity generates lower fees for every one of the blood suckers in those industries.

 

[Capella]

The credit issue is being completely buried. Could have a full on crash if the AI stocks start ****ting the bed.

At least right now if NVidia craps the bed this market is tanking hard.

Baby we are goin up

 

[Desert_Power]

 

[Capella]

Went back and looked and sold nvdia on March 15th of this year. Made a few bucks on it but ouch.

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Went back and looked and sold nvdia on March 15th of this year. Made a few bucks on it but ouch.

I bought 500 shares when Dodds told me to in 2010. $23/share, pre 4:1 split.

That'd be $1,000,000 right now.

 

[Capella]

The credit issue is being completely buried. Could have a full on crash if the AI stocks start ****ting the bed.

At least right now if NVidia craps the bed this market is tanking hard.

Baby we are goin up

 

[Sand]

The credit issue is being completely buried. Could have a full on crash if the AI stocks start ****ting the bed.

At least right now if NVidia craps the bed this market is tanking hard.

Baby we are goin up

Nice one, Nostradamus.

 

[Capella]

The credit issue is being completely buried. Could have a full on crash if the AI stocks start ****ting the bed.

At least right now if NVidia craps the bed this market is tanking hard.

Baby we are goin up

Nice one, Nostradamus.

I hate the stock market.

 

[General Malaise]

The credit issue is being completely buried. Could have a full on crash if the AI stocks start ****ting the bed.

At least right now if NVidia craps the bed this market is tanking hard.

Baby we are goin up

Nice one, Nostradamus.

I hate the stock market.

Now imagine it's your job and your investors are grading you every single month on how you do. Not stressful at all, no.

 

[stbugs]

Aside from the market bending me over today, I was thinking about the shrink problem retailers are having now. I was actually thinking that as bad as it is, it’s a good thing for AMZN. Dollar Tree is getting hammered and they said that they’ll start locking things away and stop carrying certain items. We’ve seen the pictures of stores in cities just close up bad locations because it’s not worth it anymore. Where will you go to buy those things when simply going to a store is inconvenient or doesn’t have what you want?

Not trying to go into a political debate just thinking that this could be a big push for even more online shopping and with that more advertising and AWS (cloud in general).

 

[culdeus]

Seeing face recognition tested locally at entry points i assume for shoplifting.

 

[Judge Smails]

Retailers pulling out of markets and taking their tax revenues with them will change behavior. I expect this to be the #1b issue with homeless 1a in state/local politics. Elections at stake. People are completely fed up

 

[General Malaise]

Just met with our sales and cap intro gal from our prime and she painted a rather grim picture of asset raising right now. Said this is the worst environment she has seen in years for funds trying to raise capital. Redemptions have spiked too, so funds are dealing with huge drops in AUM. Can't imagine that's a sanguine backdrop for a rally.....not with fixed income back in play and people pulling in sails while dropping anchor.

 

[stbugs]

Also, damn on AMC. The conspiracy folks are getting killed. It’s like watching a Greek tragedy unfold on Twitter. Tons of people piling more money in and starting to see some cracks about the wives leaving, etc. Most of those from days ago before another ramp down. I never liked any of the meme plays knowing the companies weren’t worth their prices but damn.

 

[culdeus]

Also, damn on AMC. The conspiracy folks are getting killed. It’s like watching a Greek tragedy unfold on Twitter. Tons of people piling more money in and starting to see some cracks about the wives leaving, etc. Most of those from days ago before another ramp down. I never liked any of the meme plays knowing the companies weren’t worth their prices but damn.

What conspiracy folks? It is up like a billion percent since tues. Wives leaving short bag holders?

 

[ghostguy123]

Just met with our sales and cap intro gal from our prime and he painted a rather grim picture of asset raising right now. Said this is the worst environment she has seen in years for funds trying to raise capital. Redemptions have spiked too, so funds are dealing with huge drops in AUM. Can't imagine that's a sanguine backdrop for a rally.....not with fixed income back in play and people pulling in sails while dropping anchor.

Wut?

 

[jwb]

The credit issue is being completely buried. Could have a full on crash if the AI stocks start ****ting the bed.

At least right now if NVidia craps the bed this market is tanking hard.

Baby we are goin up

Nice one, Nostradamus.

I hate the stock market.

You weren't alone. I think most folks expected a nice green day.

The first thing we all learn is you cannot predict the market. Then we forget it. Over and over and over again.

 

[General Malaise]

Just met with our sales and cap intro gal from our prime and he painted a rather grim picture of asset raising right now. Said this is the worst environment she has seen in years for funds trying to raise capital. Redemptions have spiked too, so funds are dealing with huge drops in AUM. Can't imagine that's a sanguine backdrop for a rally.....not with fixed income back in play and people pulling in sails while dropping anchor.

Wut?

What do you need explained?

We have a prime broker. All funds have one. Some are better than others. Goldman Sachs is the Cadillac but there are many many more. Prime brokers have a team of capital introduction folks (cap info) who try and pair up the funds on their platforms with investors looking to place money. She said today - right this second - is the worst environment she's ever witnessed for fund raising. Investors are not only NOT looking to invest capital with funds, they are pulling capital from funds and putting it into fixed income. Net cash outflows for hedge funds means selling is likely to continue to meet redemption demands.

Does that help?

 

[jwb]

Aside from the market bending me over today, I was thinking about the shrink problem retailers are having now. I was actually thinking that as bad as it is, it’s a good thing for AMZN. Dollar Tree is getting hammered and they said that they’ll start locking things away and stop carrying certain items. We’ve seen the pictures of stores in cities just close up bad locations because it’s not worth it anymore. Where will you go to buy those things when simply going to a store is inconvenient or doesn’t have what you want?

Not trying to go into a political debate just thinking that this could be a big push for even more online shopping and with that more advertising and AWS (cloud in general).

I'm generally an index guy but Amazon is the one company stock I own. They just do things so well and keep expanding how they can help.

For example, my wife was frustrated with the drugstore - it's always dirty, tons of sick people in there, the pharmacy desk employees are unpleasant and overworked, it takes forever to get stuff, insurance is always an issue, etc. She moved to Amazon on her doc's recommendation... what a difference. Zero issues, prices are much better, stuff is here the next day. In fact, after a bit of a hiccup, it seems their shipping has gotten much better. I read somewhere that 60% of their customers now get stuff same day/next day.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Stuff I've been accumulating recently (but still leaving plenty of powder in case there's another big pullback).

DISCLAIMER: I am an idiot.

BAC
COF
SCHW
DFS
NKE
RTX
SKX (just a little)
TGT
UWMC

 

[Capella]

The credit issue is being completely buried. Could have a full on crash if the AI stocks start ****ting the bed.

At least right now if NVidia craps the bed this market is tanking hard.

Baby we are goin up

Nice one, Nostradamus.

I hate the stock market.

Now imagine it's your job and your investors are grading you every single month on how you do. Not stressful at all, no.

Don’t know how you do it. I don’t need this money for 20 years and this drives me nuts.

 

[General Malaise]

The credit issue is being completely buried. Could have a full on crash if the AI stocks start ****ting the bed.

At least right now if NVidia craps the bed this market is tanking hard.

Baby we are goin up

Nice one, Nostradamus.

I hate the stock market.

Now imagine it's your job and your investors are grading you every single month on how you do. Not stressful at all, no.

Don’t know how you do it. I don’t need this money for 20 years and this drives me nuts.

I don't really have any other options for employment. I have no skills and I'm 50. I have to ride this out and hope the pilots of our plane figure out how to climb while I tell our passengers 'everything is fine, just stay with us'.

 

[Capella]

The credit issue is being completely buried. Could have a full on crash if the AI stocks start ****ting the bed.

At least right now if NVidia craps the bed this market is tanking hard.

Baby we are goin up

Nice one, Nostradamus.

I hate the stock market.

Now imagine it's your job and your investors are grading you every single month on how you do. Not stressful at all, no.

Don’t know how you do it. I don’t need this money for 20 years and this drives me nuts.

I don't really have any other options for employment. I have no skills and I'm 50. I have to ride this out and hope the pilots of our plane figure out how to climb while I tell our passengers 'everything is fine, just stay with us'.

Well usually it does end up being fine but yea that’s tough.

 

[Capella]

Is Powell going to stick it in our Jackson Hole?

 

[jwb]

The credit issue is being completely buried. Could have a full on crash if the AI stocks start ****ting the bed.

At least right now if NVidia craps the bed this market is tanking hard.

Baby we are goin up

Nice one, Nostradamus.

I hate the stock market.

Now imagine it's your job and your investors are grading you every single month on how you do. Not stressful at all, no.

Don’t know how you do it. I don’t need this money for 20 years and this drives me nuts.

It's a fun kind of nuts though. This has turned into a hobby for me the last year or so. An important/serious hobby for sure, but something I definitely enjoy spending time on, despite the down days. I'm 5 years (or so) from retirement, and I can see managing our investments being my job at that point.

 

[Todem]

Stuff I've been accumulating recently (but still leaving plenty of powder in case there's another big pullback).

DISCLAIMER: I am an idiot.

BAC
COF
SCHW
DFS
NKE
RTX
SKX (just a little)
TGT
UWMC

Those are the three we have been adding to in our master Portfolio as well as DE.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

Is it possible we're going to get to a buy price on AMC? It's gotten absolutely destroyed during the APE conversion/cash raising fiasco (down 70% last month) despite the huge success of Barbebheimer. Maybe its still a stay away due to the actor/writer strikes, but it's back on my radar at these prices.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Is it possible we're going to get to a buy price on AMC? It's gotten absolutely destroyed during the APE conversion/cash raising fiasco (down 70% last month) despite the huge success of Barbebheimer. Maybe its still a stay away due to the actor/writer strikes, but it's back on my radar at these prices.

It's still at about 4x the market cap it had just before Covid, when it was arguably a stronger business.

 

[JB Breakfast Club]

Is it possible we're going to get to a buy price on AMC? It's gotten absolutely destroyed during the APE conversion/cash raising fiasco (down 70% last month) despite the huge success of Barbebheimer. Maybe its still a stay away due to the actor/writer strikes, but it's back on my radar at these prices.

It's still at about 4x the market cap it had just before Covid, when it was arguably a stronger business.

Thanks....that was going to be the next data point to research. They've done so many issues and now a reverse split...just looking at the price doesn't tell the full story. Do any places chart market cap in addition to stock price?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Is it possible we're going to get to a buy price on AMC? It's gotten absolutely destroyed during the APE conversion/cash raising fiasco (down 70% last month) despite the huge success of Barbebheimer. Maybe its still a stay away due to the actor/writer strikes, but it's back on my radar at these prices.

It's still at about 4x the market cap it had just before Covid, when it was arguably a stronger business.

Thanks....that was going to be the next data point to research. They've done so many issues and now a reverse split...just looking at the price doesn't tell the full story. Do any places chart market cap in addition to stock price?

I use YCharts.com for that, which allows you to view total market cap charted the same way you normally would with share price.

AMC Entertainment Holdings Market Cap

In depth view into AMC Entertainment Holdings Market Cap including historical data from 2013, charts and stats.

ycharts.com

 

[[icon]]

Pulled back to about 50% cash in retirement funds on Friday. I don't see how we don't see a pullback here.

Job market is tightening significantly (seeing lots of anecdotal cases of folks struggling to get callbacks on roles), and COVID seems to be trying to surge back a bit. GMs comments above seem to reenforce this position in my mind.

 

[ghostguy123]

Quick question.
Looking at USFR........is it possible to lose money owning this? I don't mean a few pennies here and there, I mean is it possible this could go down 5, 10, 25 percent??? If so what would be the chances.

 

[Todem]

Is it possible we're going to get to a buy price on AMC? It's gotten absolutely destroyed during the APE conversion/cash raising fiasco (down 70% last month) despite the huge success of Barbebheimer. Maybe its still a stay away due to the actor/writer strikes, but it's back on my radar at these prices.

It’s a funny money stock. Only put in what you are willing to lose 100% of. Because it’s not a viable business based on it’s fundamentals.

 

[stbugs]

Is it possible we're going to get to a buy price on AMC? It's gotten absolutely destroyed during the APE conversion/cash raising fiasco (down 70% last month) despite the huge success of Barbebheimer. Maybe its still a stay away due to the actor/writer strikes, but it's back on my radar at these prices.

Lol at Barbenheimer. That’s already over and AMC didn’t create the movies so they aren’t getting the huge part of that pie. I always thought those PRs for movies like that was very misleading. It’s a one time revenue stream for AMC but the folks that “love” the stock act almost like AMC created those movies.

The stock has been taken to the woodshed, no doubt but the only way they avoid bankruptcy is to print stock like crazy which just dilutes the stock price. Neither scenario is good for stockholders and let’s be honest, the acting and writing strike continuing will hurt them way more than Barbenheimer helped them.

I think the APE conversion killed the stock in the end because shareholders finally realized that AMC stock was going to get ridiculously diluted with hundreds of millions of shares finally converted into AMC. It was holding on because the final picture of how much dilution wasn’t fully understood.

 

[pecorino]

Stuff I've been accumulating recently (but still leaving plenty of powder in case there's another big pullback).

DISCLAIMER: I am an idiot.

BAC
COF
SCHW
DFS
NKE
RTX
SKX (just a little)
TGT
UWMC

Those are the three we have been adding to in our master Portfolio as well as DE.

Thoughts on DEO?

 

[Todem]

Stuff I've been accumulating recently (but still leaving plenty of powder in case there's another big pullback).

DISCLAIMER: I am an idiot.

BAC
COF
SCHW
DFS
NKE
RTX
SKX (just a little)
TGT
UWMC

Those are the three we have been adding to in our master Portfolio as well as DE.

Thoughts on DEO?

I think it’s decent here….it has definitely come down a bit. Always a good defensive stock long term.

 

[The Man With No Name]

GREEN is good

 

[Capella]

GREEN is good

I can confirm it’s better when stocks go up.

 

[ghostguy123]

Quick question.
Looking at USFR........is it possible to lose money owning this? I don't mean a few pennies here and there, I mean is it possible this could go down 5, 10, 25 percent??? If so what would be the chances.

Anyone?

 

[stbugs]

Quick question.
Looking at USFR........is it possible to lose money owning this? I don't mean a few pennies here and there, I mean is it possible this could go down 5, 10, 25 percent??? If so what would be the chances.

Anyone?

Why bother? The yield is 4.25% and in 9 years the price is almost a flat line. I can park my cash in my Fidelity account at 5% so why buy something yielding less? How and when is the yield better because it isn’t right now?

 

[ghostguy123]

Quick question.
Looking at USFR........is it possible to lose money owning this? I don't mean a few pennies here and there, I mean is it possible this could go down 5, 10, 25 percent??? If so what would be the chances.

Anyone?

Why bother? The yield is 4.25% and in 9 years the price is almost a flat line. I can park my cash in my Fidelity account at 5% so why buy something yielding less? How and when is the yield better because it isn’t right now?

Park cash where in your fidelity account??

 

[Sand]

Quick question.
Looking at USFR........is it possible to lose money owning this? I don't mean a few pennies here and there, I mean is it possible this could go down 5, 10, 25 percent??? If so what would be the chances.

Anyone?

Why bother? The yield is 4.25% and in 9 years the price is almost a flat line. I can park my cash in my Fidelity account at 5% so why buy something yielding less? How and when is the yield better because it isn’t right now?

Park cash where in your fidelity account??

Cash sweep account - SPAXX or the like.

 

[ghostguy123]

Quick question.
Looking at USFR........is it possible to lose money owning this? I don't mean a few pennies here and there, I mean is it possible this could go down 5, 10, 25 percent??? If so what would be the chances.

Anyone?

Why bother? The yield is 4.25% and in 9 years the price is almost a flat line. I can park my cash in my Fidelity account at 5% so why buy something yielding less? How and when is the yield better because it isn’t right now?

Park cash where in your fidelity account??

Cash sweep account - SPAXX or the like.

Ok so I guess I didn't realize that. So I can have money just sitting in my fidelity account, not invested, and it's getting 5%?

 

[McBokonon]

Quick question.
Looking at USFR........is it possible to lose money owning this? I don't mean a few pennies here and there, I mean is it possible this could go down 5, 10, 25 percent??? If so what would be the chances.

Anyone?

Why bother? The yield is 4.25% and in 9 years the price is almost a flat line. I can park my cash in my Fidelity account at 5% so why buy something yielding less? How and when is the yield better because it isn’t right now?

Park cash where in your fidelity account??

Cash sweep account - SPAXX or the like.

Ok so I guess I didn't realize that. So I can have money just sitting in my fidelity account, not invested, and it's getting 5%?

Yes but you have to make one transaction if your cash isn’t there already. First, hit “trade” like you would if you were buying a stock. Then search for SPAXX or FDRXX (I have SPAXX in my taxable and FDRXX in my IRA’s. I can’t remember why I made that choice or if I was forced to. Both are about the same yield.) Then buy as much as you want. It’s liquid like cash so if you need it, just withdraw it later (no need to trade again.) Then, at the end of every month, you get paid out your interest.

There might be another way besides trading (like choosing how you want cash handled) but I don’t see it on mobile right away and I’m not looking for it.)

 

[stbugs]

Quick question.
Looking at USFR........is it possible to lose money owning this? I don't mean a few pennies here and there, I mean is it possible this could go down 5, 10, 25 percent??? If so what would be the chances.

Anyone?

Why bother? The yield is 4.25% and in 9 years the price is almost a flat line. I can park my cash in my Fidelity account at 5% so why buy something yielding less? How and when is the yield better because it isn’t right now?

Park cash where in your fidelity account??

Cash sweep account - SPAXX or the like.

Ok so I guess I didn't realize that. So I can have money just sitting in my fidelity account, not invested, and it's getting 5%?

Yes but you have to make one transaction if your cash isn’t there already. First, hit “trade” like you would if you were buying a stock. Then search for SPAXX or FDRXX (I have SPAXX in my taxable and FDRXX in my IRA’s. I can’t remember why I made that choice or if I was forced to. Both are about the same yield.) Then buy as much as you want. It’s liquid like cash so if you need it, just withdraw it later (no need to trade again.) Then, at the end of every month, you get paid out your interest.

There might be another way besides trading (like choosing how you want cash handled) but I don’t see it on mobile right away and I’m not looking for it.)

I don’t have to do this. As @Sand posted, my cash/cash sweep for my IRA and brokerage accounts are setup as one of the two money market funds. It’s automatics for me. If I sell a stock or make a deposit, it will automatically “purchase” the money market shares for the exact amount of the sale down to the penny. Same happens on reverse if I buy a stock.

 

[McBokonon]

Quick question.
Looking at USFR........is it possible to lose money owning this? I don't mean a few pennies here and there, I mean is it possible this could go down 5, 10, 25 percent??? If so what would be the chances.

Anyone?

Why bother? The yield is 4.25% and in 9 years the price is almost a flat line. I can park my cash in my Fidelity account at 5% so why buy something yielding less? How and when is the yield better because it isn’t right now?

Park cash where in your fidelity account??

Cash sweep account - SPAXX or the like.

Ok so I guess I didn't realize that. So I can have money just sitting in my fidelity account, not invested, and it's getting 5%?

Yes but you have to make one transaction if your cash isn’t there already. First, hit “trade” like you would if you were buying a stock. Then search for SPAXX or FDRXX (I have SPAXX in my taxable and FDRXX in my IRA’s. I can’t remember why I made that choice or if I was forced to. Both are about the same yield.) Then buy as much as you want. It’s liquid like cash so if you need it, just withdraw it later (no need to trade again.) Then, at the end of every month, you get paid out your interest.

There might be another way besides trading (like choosing how you want cash handled) but I don’t see it on mobile right away and I’m not looking for it.)

I don’t have to do this. As @Sand posted, my cash/cash sweep for my IRA and brokerage accounts are setup as one of the two money market funds. It’s automatics for me. If I sell a stock or make a deposit, it will automatically “purchase” the money market shares for the exact amount of the sale down to the penny. Same happens on reverse if I buy a stock.

It does that for me now, but I faintly remember having to set it up initially. Fully willing to accept I’m remembering wrong.

 

[stbugs]

Quick question.
Looking at USFR........is it possible to lose money owning this? I don't mean a few pennies here and there, I mean is it possible this could go down 5, 10, 25 percent??? If so what would be the chances.

Anyone?

Why bother? The yield is 4.25% and in 9 years the price is almost a flat line. I can park my cash in my Fidelity account at 5% so why buy something yielding less? How and when is the yield better because it isn’t right now?

Park cash where in your fidelity account??

Cash sweep account - SPAXX or the like.

Ok so I guess I didn't realize that. So I can have money just sitting in my fidelity account, not invested, and it's getting 5%?

Yes but you have to make one transaction if your cash isn’t there already. First, hit “trade” like you would if you were buying a stock. Then search for SPAXX or FDRXX (I have SPAXX in my taxable and FDRXX in my IRA’s. I can’t remember why I made that choice or if I was forced to. Both are about the same yield.) Then buy as much as you want. It’s liquid like cash so if you need it, just withdraw it later (no need to trade again.) Then, at the end of every month, you get paid out your interest.

There might be another way besides trading (like choosing how you want cash handled) but I don’t see it on mobile right away and I’m not looking for it.)

I don’t have to do this. As @Sand posted, my cash/cash sweep for my IRA and brokerage accounts are setup as one of the two money market funds. It’s automatics for me. If I sell a stock or make a deposit, it will automatically “purchase” the money market shares for the exact amount of the sale down to the penny. Same happens on reverse if I buy a stock.

It does that for me now, but I faintly remember having to set it up initially. Fully willing to accept I’m remembering wrong.

I remember being asked to do it as an option but honestly when it first happened interest rates were almost nothing so I didn’t really care much anyway. I know I never had to buy the money market, it was just a hey you can select a money market fund instead of cash for where we put all cash. I did that because it was slightly better than their cash option and now it’s way better.

 

[McBokonon]

it was just a hey you can select a money market fund instead of cash for where we put all cash. I did that because it was slightly better than their cash option and now it’s way better.

This might be what I remember. I guess my overall point for @ghostguy123 is that it might not default into those higher paying funds, so look where it is now and then you might have to take a step.

 

[ghostguy123]

Whenever I sell the money goes into SPAXX.