Last year was a very difficult year to outperform the indexes. S&P 500 is heavily weighted in AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL, NVDA and TSLA which killed it and saw earnings go up 50% while the remainder had flat earnings. If you didn't own a significant position in these you underperformed. Most advisors would own these but probably not at the same overweight position they represent in the S&P 500.
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Stock Thread (98 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Desert_Power
Footballguy
It's really hard to beat the market and it's even harder when you're paying dudes to do it.
Desert_Power pretty much hit the nail on the head here. One thing that individual investors often do not take into account however is risk adjusted return, which albeit is a lot harder to determine. I have three accounts at Schwab, which makes it very easy to determine portfolio returns. My RothIRA last year returned nearly 50%. That account is tagged for monies I'll not need for at least 10 years and has a very heavy weighting in GOOG & AMD (nearly 60% of the account now). So it's easy for me to say that I crushed the market (well, just barely the NASDAQ) but i also realize I need two stocks to do the heavy lifting.
My joint tenant account is what I actively trade in throughout the year. This is money I intend on using within 2-3 years when I retire, to bridge us until the magical 59 1/2 age when I can tap into my IRA's and 401K's. As such, I have over the past 1-2 years taken quite a bit of risk off the table (unfortunately I have sold off quite a bit of NVDA at 300 and 400) and moved it into dividend paying stocks with my lower risk (imo of course). I also trade quite a bit with options and stocks and get lucky occasionally. I pay attention to tax loss harvesting as well in this account and treat it as my own personal hedge fund, including writing quarterly and year end notes for shareholders (wife). I gauge my performance vs. the S&P and have got pretty lucky in beating it 8 of past 10 years (although this past year was by like less than 1%). However, I don't have as much risk associated with this account any longer other than my stupid (ummm, brilliant) trades.
All that said, financial planners are probably helpful to novice investors, or people with money that don't care to know about investing, too wrapped up in their own business let's say, so it gives them peace of mind having someone handle that. Wealthiest guy I know personally uses one and loses year over year to the market. He screams and yells at his guy, how can the market be up 20% and I'm only up 17% and has to be explained to that he isn't fully invested in stocks. (The real reason he yells and screams at this guy is when he first started using him, the guy told him to liquidate all of his AAPL so he could be way more diversified, but that's a tale for another time). Either way, he keeps his guy and keeps paying him 1%, so he's probably never going to beat the market, but on down markets he will not be wiped out either.
I'm certainly not endorsing financial planners. I know quite a few. Went to school and very good friends with one. If you are confident in what you're doing and enjoy it, go for it. But if you are using one, there is probably a reason for it (risk aversion, rather spending your time doing other things, not interested in following the market, etc...) so that's the price you pay.
Sand
Footballguy
It's all about the fees. Here are the choices - https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/spot-bitcoin-etfs-which-offers-the-lowest-fees/
ARKB or BITB, depending on volume and how long you're holding, etc.
Options were already approved, but from what I read (I don't do options, so this is dim memory) they maybe don't track well.
McBokonon
Footballguy
It's all about the fees. Here are the choices - https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/spot-bitcoin-etfs-which-offers-the-lowest-fees/
ARKB or BITB, depending on volume and how long you're holding, etc.
Options were already approved, but from what I read (I don't do options, so this is dim memory) they maybe don't track well.
Fidelity's (FBTC) is free until August (not sure if that’s just for Fidelity clients) and then is .25.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Since you're already well versed in purchasing and self-custody with crypto I don't think these ETFs really provide anything for you unless you're looking to add exposure in a retirement account where you can't buy bitcoin directly.
I've never done it but I believe there are even options/futures trading on bitcoin already as well.
KGB
Footballguy
Yeah, I was thinking for some longer term stuff maybe.
Since you're already well versed in purchasing and self-custody with crypto I don't think these ETFs really provide anything for you unless you're looking to add exposure in a retirement account where you can't buy bitcoin directly.
I've never done it but I believe there are even options/futures trading on bitcoin already as well.
Ty for the info
Sand
Footballguy
Retail transaction fees are .5-1.5% at Coinbase, etc. A low/no fee ETF makes sense in some cases.
Since you're already well versed in purchasing and self-custody with crypto I don't think these ETFs really provide anything for you unless you're looking to add exposure in a retirement account where you can't buy bitcoin directly.
I've never done it but I believe there are even options/futures trading on bitcoin already as well.
McBokonon
Footballguy
This is from September of 2022 and is JMHO. They’re not going to zero but they also seem to be behind the curve a lot.
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Sand
Footballguy
Good review of 2023 - Asset class returns for 2023:
Commodity returns for 2023:
www.visualcapitalist.com
That one is pretty ugly - falling interest rates. Interestingly the only year in the last decade gold was at the top.
Commodity returns for 2023:
The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2014-2023)
Commodity returns in 2023 took a hit. This graphic shows the performance of commodities like gold, oil, nickel, and corn over the last decade.
www.visualcapitalist.com
That one is pretty ugly - falling interest rates. Interestingly the only year in the last decade gold was at the top.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Good review of 2023 - Asset class returns for 2023:
Commodity returns for 2023:
The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2014-2023)
Commodity returns in 2023 took a hit. This graphic shows the performance of commodities like gold, oil, nickel, and corn over the last decade.
That one is pretty ugly - falling interest rates. Interestingly the only year in the last decade gold was at the top.
Ummmmmm.....why isn't uranium on here. That's a commodity.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
DNN+10%
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yeah got some mentions right next to Cameco in Yahoo Finance. Buzz starting to spread. We left work Friday with news that uranium traded as high as $104. Buckle up, this could get wild.
identikit
Footballguy
Up 3% today so far
General Malaise
Footballguy
I have no idea how silly this gets in the near term, but the last time uranium prices were at all-time highs this stock hit $23. Not suggesting that happens again, but there is room for this to run.
Bogart
Footballguy
All of the "Trump Stocks": DWAC (up 13%), RUM (up 4%) and PHUN (up 236%) are up based on yesterday's Iowa results. I would expect them all to drop back down since there aren't successfully profitable businesses attached, but interesting none the less.
The power of FOMO is a real thing.
The power of FOMO is a real thing.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I would expect the same. I would not, however, expect sanity. So the time-line for that return to normalcy could be... ?
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Alright, took a position in DEO. Any big updates to your master list from 2/23?
Good luck SFBayDuck. I'm in DEO, too. An extension question for todem and everyone else:
I can't tell you the number of times when watching CNBC that JPM Morgan is identified as best-in-breed in the financial space. It's essentially a unanimous feeling such that even if someone is bearish on financials, they will "But if you want to own one, JPM is where you want to be." Of course I am familiar with the notion of 'best-in-breed.' In fact, Kramer uses it often. But JPM has a kind of mythical level of that.
My question is: what small handful of companies would be considered the JPM of their space? I have a hunch that todem will have Deere (DE) on that list. I'd personally put MSFT on that list but just about every day, I hear debates about MSFT vs AAPL vs. GOOG vs. AMZN, etc. Meaning, there is no one unanimous best-in-breed in tech. That is fine. I'm looking for the slam dunks, the moats, whatever you want to call it.
I can't tell you the number of times when watching CNBC that JPM Morgan is identified as best-in-breed in the financial space. It's essentially a unanimous feeling such that even if someone is bearish on financials, they will "But if you want to own one, JPM is where you want to be." Of course I am familiar with the notion of 'best-in-breed.' In fact, Kramer uses it often. But JPM has a kind of mythical level of that.
My question is: what small handful of companies would be considered the JPM of their space? I have a hunch that todem will have Deere (DE) on that list. I'd personally put MSFT on that list but just about every day, I hear debates about MSFT vs AAPL vs. GOOG vs. AMZN, etc. Meaning, there is no one unanimous best-in-breed in tech. That is fine. I'm looking for the slam dunks, the moats, whatever you want to call it.
I like Thermo Fisher and know them well. High but not crazy P/E. Axon looks very richly priced to me and I hardly know it. I’m looking for names that are well known and the industry standard bearer. Maybe Axon is that, but I can’t buy something that’s trading north of 125 fit it’s P/E.
McBokonon
Footballguy
P/E isn’t a good metric for everything. But AXON is definitely expensive, and has been for all the years I’ve owned it.
ETA: I like forward P/E more than trailing 12 months, generally. The TTM P/E is north of 125 but forward is <70. Still high but also not as meaningful for growth stocks like this one.
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The General
Footballguy
NVDA is just sick. Crazy run. Go AI 
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm up 88%. No complaints.NVDA is just sick. Crazy run. Go AI
Indeed, I sold it when I thought it had run too far, too fast. That was more than 200 points ago. It is crazy but you'd also be crazy to short it, too.NVDA is just sick. Crazy run. Go AI
The General
Footballguy
Always the hardest part for me - to sell these heaters. I mean it’s up like 20% plus YTD. That’s absurd…yet I can’t pull the trigger.Indeed, I sold it when I thought it had run too far, too fast. That was more than 200 points ago. It is crazy but you'd also be crazy to short it, too.NVDA is just sick. Crazy run. Go AI
Dr_Zaius
Footballguy
Yeah, I had a couple of coworkers tell me to sell at least half at 400. I haven't listened thus far, but at some point the upward movement is unsustainable.Always the hardest part for me - to sell these heaters. I mean it’s up like 20% plus YTD. That’s absurd…yet I can’t pull the trigger.Indeed, I sold it when I thought it had run too far, too fast. That was more than 200 points ago. It is crazy but you'd also be crazy to short it, too.NVDA is just sick. Crazy run. Go AI
General Malaise
Footballguy
Little love to AMD too.... 
identikit
Footballguy
I'm up 88%. No complaints.NVDA is just sick. Crazy run. Go AI
267% here
Check that, 268%
Sand
Footballguy
You'd think.
So we've now hit an all time high, which is cool. I have a little bet with Todem on the markets - I said it's likely we'll never get to all time highs again, inflation adjusted. He disagrees. We never set stakes (I figure a Trading Places style bet). Right now, inflation adjusted, the market's all time high is ~5340. We're still down 11%.
That said,
for today's record.
Capella
Footballguy
Sold some of mine last week and some of Google yesterday. Taking profits is fun until you see yourself leaving money on the table. But you never know. Hit my targets and didn’t want to get greedy.NVDA is just sick. Crazy run. Go AI
General Malaise
Footballguy
Bloomberg out with a great opinion piece on uranium this morning. Still room on the train but it's getting crowded and leaving the station soon.
The General
Footballguy
I’m getting close. Got to pick a spot and be happy. Can always jump back in I suppose.Sold some of mine last week and some of Google yesterday. Taking profits is fun until you see yourself leaving money on the table. But you never know. Hit my targets and didn’t want to get greedy.NVDA is just sick. Crazy run. Go AI
The General
Footballguy
Like never ever?You'd think.
So we've now hit an all time high, which is cool. I have a little bet with Todem on the markets - I said it's likely we'll never get to all time highs again, inflation adjusted. He disagrees. We never set stakes (I figure a Trading Places style bet). Right now, inflation adjusted, the market's all time high is ~5340. We're still down 11%.
That said,
Capella
Footballguy
Yea that’s my plan. Figure there will be a downturn and I can do it again.I’m getting close. Got to pick a spot and be happy. Can always jump back in I suppose.Sold some of mine last week and some of Google yesterday. Taking profits is fun until you see yourself leaving money on the table. But you never know. Hit my targets and didn’t want to get greedy.NVDA is just sick. Crazy run. Go AI
This is my trading account, I still have my block of them in my long term account. The kids can sell those one day.
The General
Footballguy
Hopefully after a couple of nice splits and the shares trading at around 750!Yea that’s my plan. Figure there will be a downturn and I can do it again.I’m getting close. Got to pick a spot and be happy. Can always jump back in I suppose.Sold some of mine last week and some of Google yesterday. Taking profits is fun until you see yourself leaving money on the table. But you never know. Hit my targets and didn’t want to get greedy.NVDA is just sick. Crazy run. Go AI
This is my trading account, I still have my block of them in my long term account. The kids can sell those one day.
Sand
Footballguy
Correct - population decline, aging, massive debasement of our currency, and inflationary trends lead to the thought that the markets will never catch up with inflation.Like never ever?You'd think.
So we've now hit an all time high, which is cool. I have a little bet with Todem on the markets - I said it's likely we'll never get to all time highs again, inflation adjusted. He disagrees. We never set stakes (I figure a Trading Places style bet). Right now, inflation adjusted, the market's all time high is ~5340. We're still down 11%.
That said,
The General
Footballguy
Man. Here’s to hoping you are very wrongCorrect - population decline, aging, massive debasement of our currency, and inflationary trends lead to the thought that the markets will never catch up with inflation.Like never ever?You'd think.
So we've now hit an all time high, which is cool. I have a little bet with Todem on the markets - I said it's likely we'll never get to all time highs again, inflation adjusted. He disagrees. We never set stakes (I figure a Trading Places style bet). Right now, inflation adjusted, the market's all time high is ~5340. We're still down 11%.
That said,
Sand
Footballguy
I'm probably wrong this year as I'm probably 10 years early. But it's coming.Man. Here’s to hoping you are very wrongCorrect - population decline, aging, massive debasement of our currency, and inflationary trends lead to the thought that the markets will never catch up with inflation.Like never ever?You'd think.
So we've now hit an all time high, which is cool. I have a little bet with Todem on the markets - I said it's likely we'll never get to all time highs again, inflation adjusted. He disagrees. We never set stakes (I figure a Trading Places style bet). Right now, inflation adjusted, the market's all time high is ~5340. We're still down 11%.
That said,
The General
Footballguy
I hope that is wrong too!I'm probably wrong this year as I'm probably 10 years early. But it's coming.Man. Here’s to hoping you are very wrongCorrect - population decline, aging, massive debasement of our currency, and inflationary trends lead to the thought that the markets will never catch up with inflation.Like never ever?You'd think.
So we've now hit an all time high, which is cool. I have a little bet with Todem on the markets - I said it's likely we'll never get to all time highs again, inflation adjusted. He disagrees. We never set stakes (I figure a Trading Places style bet). Right now, inflation adjusted, the market's all time high is ~5340. We're still down 11%.
That said,
But I follow what you are saying and it doesn't sound unreasonable. Until something comes along that allows people to grow money like the stock market it seems like it will be the game in town.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Bogart
Footballguy
DWAC up 65% today and 156% for the month. Simply insane stock to follow. Still no product and 80% dilution when/if they merge with TMTG. Guess the bag holders can enjoy the ride for a bit. @St. Louis Bob
Puts dated 2/16 with $40 strike price are selling with a premium of $8. Meaning, an expectation of roughly 35% drop in less than four weeks. Whew.
KGB
Footballguy
Reddit reportedly seeks to launch IPO in March
Social media platform Reddit has drawn up detailed plans to launch its initial public offering in March, according to people familiar with the matter.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Good little day for the tin stock that hasn't seen too many good little days in what feels like forever. Alphamin Resources +5%.
