The General
Footballguy
NFLX earnings report very nice. After hours 
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Stock Thread (37 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
General Malaise
Footballguy
Been waiting for years for my CannTrust money. It's like waiting for Alex Jones money. It's never coming but I did my part.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I have a few leftover shares of UEC from 2011ish that I figured might be worth a nickel by the time I died. With a little more mo, I could actually get my money back from them.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Denison, Orano Canada To Restart McClean Lake Uranium Operation - McClean Lake joint venture (MLJV) plans to commence mining at the McClean North deposit in 2025. Activities this year will focus on preparations and the installation of eight pilot holes for the first mining cavities planned for excavation. Uranium production from McClean North is estimated at 800,000 in 2025, with about 3 million pounds of potential additional production coming from the McClean North and Caribou deposits from 2026 to 2030.
General Malaise
Footballguy
AMD just chugging along too.....
General Malaise
Footballguy
Cue the Creed song!
Ok, I think we’ve officially hit the froth on AI. All the IBM CEO had to say is AI grew more than expected and they are up 10%+ today and up almost 50% since the October low.
Here are the real results and you tell me if IBM is worth 50-60% more than the trading range it had been in:
2023 full year growth (including Q4) over 2022, wait for it, of 2%.
2024 anticipated growth of, hold on to your hats now, mid-single digits! Analysts were expect 3% and they might get to 5%.
Their AI stuff doubled from Q3 to Q4, so you’d expect them to be blowing away numbers like NVDA, right? Well, wait till you get a load of this. Their revenue in Q4 was 17.4B, which blew the doors off of the 17.3B estimates. That’s an earnings beat of 0.6% and yes, the decimal is in the right place, under 1% beat. Hey, they did beat earnings by 3% with all the layoffs.
It’s always funny to see stuff like this. They barely moved the needle and the stock is up more than 10% today and up a lot more since October. Most of the stocks we discuss in here likely would have gone down after that small of a beat.
Here are the real results and you tell me if IBM is worth 50-60% more than the trading range it had been in:
2023 full year growth (including Q4) over 2022, wait for it, of 2%.
2024 anticipated growth of, hold on to your hats now, mid-single digits! Analysts were expect 3% and they might get to 5%.
Their AI stuff doubled from Q3 to Q4, so you’d expect them to be blowing away numbers like NVDA, right? Well, wait till you get a load of this. Their revenue in Q4 was 17.4B, which blew the doors off of the 17.3B estimates. That’s an earnings beat of 0.6% and yes, the decimal is in the right place, under 1% beat. Hey, they did beat earnings by 3% with all the layoffs.
It’s always funny to see stuff like this. They barely moved the needle and the stock is up more than 10% today and up a lot more since October. Most of the stocks we discuss in here likely would have gone down after that small of a beat.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Ended up moving out of these two stocks after I made this post. Looks like I wasn’t off in regard to Tesla. Tesla was at $225 the day that I posted this (Currently at $188) Starbucks was at $99 (currently at $92). I have continued to keep in touch with my contacts with China (when they come over for business trips and such) and they tell me not much has changed. A lot of businesses closing, Chinese citizens losing faith in the government and economy, foreign investment and companies seem to be fleeing..etc. The two stocks that I mentioned were pretty much the two that had what I would consider a moderate level of China exposure to them in my portfolio—and I’m glad that I got out when I did. Keep in mind, I think both are fine companies and I almost certainly will get back into them—but I do want to wait until I either see improvements in the situation in China.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Not disagreeing with any of this but it’s possible IBM is just in the process of being rerated. It was dead money forever but I think people are seeing the turnaround story happen. Forward P/E is only 18-19x now.
The General
Footballguy
Anything that moves this much this fast is bubblish. Enjoy the ride and don’t get greedy…or do but be ready for a free fall!
I just thought it was funny that 2023 full year revenue growth and a surprise of 0.6% causes that huge of a jump. They don’t break out AI revenue so it’s an anecdote they threw in to juice things. NVDA has gone crazy (as has AMD which I own a lot of due to XLNX, glad I didn’t sell) but NVDA has gigantic revenue/earning jumps/surprises.
It just makes me notice when a stock is up 12% in a day and the revenue growth the past 4 years from 2020 to 2023 is under 12%.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Don’t forget ASML
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
What's funny about IBM is that they were at the forefront of AI with Watson years ago. But, as they often do, screwed up and couldn't figure out how to capitalize on it, and everyone else blew by them. They were early on blockchain as well, same story in that when others were being rewarded for that, they were largely ignored.
The Adobes and Salesforces of the world are great storytellers. They often talk about products that don't really exist yet or position groups of products that don't really integrate as a single solution. And businesses buy those stories and buy their stuff. IBM is the exact opposite, they struggle to figure out what the market really wants or how to market what they do have to offer.
I think once they finally got rid of Ginni and brought on Arvind they're started to figure it out, and if you look at the last couple of years their stock performance has been a little better than those other two (even prior to today).
(disclaimer, I've been in tech my whole career and have worked at IBM, CRM, ORCL)
The Adobes and Salesforces of the world are great storytellers. They often talk about products that don't really exist yet or position groups of products that don't really integrate as a single solution. And businesses buy those stories and buy their stuff. IBM is the exact opposite, they struggle to figure out what the market really wants or how to market what they do have to offer.
I think once they finally got rid of Ginni and brought on Arvind they're started to figure it out, and if you look at the last couple of years their stock performance has been a little better than those other two (even prior to today).
(disclaimer, I've been in tech my whole career and have worked at IBM, CRM, ORCL)
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I actually moved a lot of my Emerging ETF holdings into EXMC to get out of China.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I did the same about a year ago I think. Still have VWO, which is 28% China, but moved some to EXMC to get the China exposure within my EM holdings down below 20%. Probably should have moved more as there's about a 10% spread in performance between those two over the last 1 and 2 years.
I also am constantly questioning why I even have Int'l stocks at all in my portfolio. At about 12% I am already pretty underweight compared to a lot of model portfolios I've seen, and that has steadily decreased from closer to 20% as US equities continue to kick their *** and I'm not buying any int'l in my 401K. It's been, what, the early 2000s since int'l outperformed? And US stocks have blown them away since about 2008. Will that revert at any time in the next 10-20-30 years?
General Malaise
Footballguy
Nice report outta Alphamin. Stock up 4.5% in Canada. Taking their management on the road with BMO in April hitting NYC/Boston. Thinking the large seller is done for now and this thing should have some winds to the back. As always, it'll go as tin goes as this is truly one of the best levered plays to the underlying commodity.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'll let you know when I kick them out of my 401k. That is as certain to send them on a bull run as changing lanes in traffic is to get that lane moving.
KGB
Footballguy
Reddit reportedly seeks to launch IPO in March
Social media platform Reddit has drawn up detailed plans to launch its initial public offering in March, according to people familiar with the matter.www.cnbc.com
List of most-visited websites - Wikipedia
reddit a top 10 visited website
Bogart
Footballguy
Reddit reportedly seeks to launch IPO in March
Social media platform Reddit has drawn up detailed plans to launch its initial public offering in March, according to people familiar with the matter.List of most-visited websites - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
reddit a top 10 visited website
I think this will be an interesting play. Reddit has similar brand recognition as X(Twitter), and really a more sticky viewing experience I feel like. Maybe they learn from Twitter's mistakes and profit.
Also, looking at that list, we really need a pRon ETF if there isn't one already. 2 of the top 5 websites and 4 out of the top 20.
Sand
Footballguy
At least personally I can see reddit having more value - I use twitter none and reddit all the time.Reddit reportedly seeks to launch IPO in March
Social media platform Reddit has drawn up detailed plans to launch its initial public offering in March, according to people familiar with the matter.List of most-visited websites - Wikipedia
reddit a top 10 visited website
I think this will be an interesting play. Reddit has similar brand recognition as X(Twitter), and really a more sticky viewing experience I feel like. Maybe they learn from Twitter's mistakes and profit.
Also, looking at that list, we really need a pRon ETF if there isn't one already. 2 of the top 5 websites and 4 out of the top 20.
General Malaise
Footballguy
If you want a PURE uranium play, go with Sprott Physical Uranium Trust which is trading at a 10% discount to the underlying commodity.
I like UUUU fine, but they aren't a pure play on uranium.
Cameco (CCJ) is the world's second leading miner of uranium, but it's had quite a run already. I like Denison Mine, but they've also had quite a run. Just a cheaper play under 2 bucks.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
At least personally I can see reddit having more value - I use twitter none and reddit all the time.Reddit reportedly seeks to launch IPO in March
Social media platform Reddit has drawn up detailed plans to launch its initial public offering in March, according to people familiar with the matter.List of most-visited websites - Wikipedia
reddit a top 10 visited website
I think this will be an interesting play. Reddit has similar brand recognition as X(Twitter), and really a more sticky viewing experience I feel like. Maybe they learn from Twitter's mistakes and profit.
Also, looking at that list, we really need a pRon ETF if there isn't one already. 2 of the top 5 websites and 4 out of the top 20.
The most interesting question is how it will actually make money. That was the big question for FB and the big difference between FB and Twitter. Facebook was actually able to turn their users into money, and Twitter largely is not. Part of that is Facebook's format is more conducive to advertising. But I think a big part of it is that Facebook was really able to put the burden of having to make profit onto the advertisers (and provide them with equal value in return) while Twitter was forced to put that on the users (more and more ads in a format that is not conducive to having lots of ads).
Reddit isn't limited to only short form content like Twitter (which I think really hurts Twitter's advertising value). But Reddit also does not have anywhere close to the leverage with businesses that Facebook had.
When Facebook went public they had bajillions of businesses that were making bajillions of dollars with their facebook pages and ads. And when they needed to make money they could charge those people way, way more and they really had no choice but to pay it because even at those jacked up prices or having to pay for something that used to be free, it still was way worth it to continue using it. Reddit doesn't have anything even remotely like that and tries to make money on the reddit coins and whatnot which realistically, 95% of users don't care about and the few users that use them would probably quit if they tried to raise the prices.
Reddit also trends much younger which is probably good for user growth, but not great for monetization.
Sand
Footballguy
We'll probably see more interspersed ads like FB. Sad, but maybe an ad blocker will be effective here.At least personally I can see reddit having more value - I use twitter none and reddit all the time.Reddit reportedly seeks to launch IPO in March
Social media platform Reddit has drawn up detailed plans to launch its initial public offering in March, according to people familiar with the matter.List of most-visited websites - Wikipedia
reddit a top 10 visited website
I think this will be an interesting play. Reddit has similar brand recognition as X(Twitter), and really a more sticky viewing experience I feel like. Maybe they learn from Twitter's mistakes and profit.
Also, looking at that list, we really need a pRon ETF if there isn't one already. 2 of the top 5 websites and 4 out of the top 20.
The most interesting question is how it will actually make money. That was the big question for FB and the big difference between FB and Twitter. Facebook was actually able to turn their users into money, and Twitter largely is not. Part of that is Facebook's format is more conducive to advertising. But I think a big part of it is that Facebook was really able to put the burden of having to make profit onto the advertisers (and provide them with equal value in return) while Twitter was forced to put that on the users (more and more ads in a format that is not conducive to having lots of ads).
Reddit isn't limited to only short form content like Twitter (which I think really hurts Twitter's advertising value). But Reddit also does not have anywhere close to the leverage with businesses that Facebook had.
When Facebook went public they had bajillions of businesses that were making bajillions of dollars with their facebook pages and ads. And when they needed to make money they could charge those people way, way more and they really had no choice but to pay it because even at those jacked up prices or having to pay for something that used to be free, it still was way worth it to continue using it. Reddit doesn't have anything even remotely like that and tries to make money on the reddit coins and whatnot which realistically, 95% of users don't care about and the few users that use them would probably quit if they tried to raise the prices.
Reddit also trends much younger which is probably good for user growth, but not great for monetization.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
We'll probably see more interspersed ads like FB. Sad, but maybe an ad blocker will be effective here.At least personally I can see reddit having more value - I use twitter none and reddit all the time.Reddit reportedly seeks to launch IPO in March
Social media platform Reddit has drawn up detailed plans to launch its initial public offering in March, according to people familiar with the matter.List of most-visited websites - Wikipedia
reddit a top 10 visited website
I think this will be an interesting play. Reddit has similar brand recognition as X(Twitter), and really a more sticky viewing experience I feel like. Maybe they learn from Twitter's mistakes and profit.
Also, looking at that list, we really need a pRon ETF if there isn't one already. 2 of the top 5 websites and 4 out of the top 20.
The most interesting question is how it will actually make money. That was the big question for FB and the big difference between FB and Twitter. Facebook was actually able to turn their users into money, and Twitter largely is not. Part of that is Facebook's format is more conducive to advertising. But I think a big part of it is that Facebook was really able to put the burden of having to make profit onto the advertisers (and provide them with equal value in return) while Twitter was forced to put that on the users (more and more ads in a format that is not conducive to having lots of ads).
Reddit isn't limited to only short form content like Twitter (which I think really hurts Twitter's advertising value). But Reddit also does not have anywhere close to the leverage with businesses that Facebook had.
When Facebook went public they had bajillions of businesses that were making bajillions of dollars with their facebook pages and ads. And when they needed to make money they could charge those people way, way more and they really had no choice but to pay it because even at those jacked up prices or having to pay for something that used to be free, it still was way worth it to continue using it. Reddit doesn't have anything even remotely like that and tries to make money on the reddit coins and whatnot which realistically, 95% of users don't care about and the few users that use them would probably quit if they tried to raise the prices.
Reddit also trends much younger which is probably good for user growth, but not great for monetization.
Right which is what Twitter did as well, but it didn't work nearly as well at generating income on Twitter and I'm skeptical it will on Reddit either.
FB was able to generate a ton of money by starting to charge businesses to use their own business pages, which used to be free (well technically they still are, but their reach is suppressed to practically zero unless you pay). Reddit doesn't have anything like that. Businesses already had a huge presence on Facebook when it IPO'd. All facebook had to do was start charging them to maintain that presence.
Reddit also doesn't have nearly the personal data that Facebook does to allow businesses to target users down to an incredible deal of specificity to match their target customer. This is what makes facebook ads so successful because businesses are willing to pay a lot for that. Random impressions are MUCH less valuable to businesses and hence much less lucrative for the platform, and I just don't see any way Reddit can replicate that level of personalization (which is a problem Twitter has also had).
McBokonon
Footballguy
We'll probably see more interspersed ads like FB. Sad, but maybe an ad blocker will be effective here.At least personally I can see reddit having more value - I use twitter none and reddit all the time.Reddit reportedly seeks to launch IPO in March
Social media platform Reddit has drawn up detailed plans to launch its initial public offering in March, according to people familiar with the matter.List of most-visited websites - Wikipedia
reddit a top 10 visited website
I think this will be an interesting play. Reddit has similar brand recognition as X(Twitter), and really a more sticky viewing experience I feel like. Maybe they learn from Twitter's mistakes and profit.
Also, looking at that list, we really need a pRon ETF if there isn't one already. 2 of the top 5 websites and 4 out of the top 20.
The most interesting question is how it will actually make money. That was the big question for FB and the big difference between FB and Twitter. Facebook was actually able to turn their users into money, and Twitter largely is not. Part of that is Facebook's format is more conducive to advertising. But I think a big part of it is that Facebook was really able to put the burden of having to make profit onto the advertisers (and provide them with equal value in return) while Twitter was forced to put that on the users (more and more ads in a format that is not conducive to having lots of ads).
Reddit isn't limited to only short form content like Twitter (which I think really hurts Twitter's advertising value). But Reddit also does not have anywhere close to the leverage with businesses that Facebook had.
When Facebook went public they had bajillions of businesses that were making bajillions of dollars with their facebook pages and ads. And when they needed to make money they could charge those people way, way more and they really had no choice but to pay it because even at those jacked up prices or having to pay for something that used to be free, it still was way worth it to continue using it. Reddit doesn't have anything even remotely like that and tries to make money on the reddit coins and whatnot which realistically, 95% of users don't care about and the few users that use them would probably quit if they tried to raise the prices.
Reddit also trends much younger which is probably good for user growth, but not great for monetization.
Right which is what Twitter did as well, but it didn't work nearly as well at generating income on Twitter and I'm skeptical it will on Reddit either.
FB was able to generate a ton of money by starting to charge businesses to use their own business pages, which used to be free (well technically they still are, but their reach is suppressed to practically zero unless you pay). Reddit doesn't have anything like that. Businesses already had a huge presence on Facebook when it IPO'd. All facebook had to do was start charging them to maintain that presence.
Reddit also doesn't have nearly the personal data that Facebook does to allow businesses to target users down to an incredible deal of specificity to match their target customer. This is what makes facebook ads so successful because businesses are willing to pay a lot for that. Random impressions are MUCH less valuable to businesses and hence much less lucrative for the platform, and I just don't see any way Reddit can replicate that level of personalization (which is a problem Twitter has also had).
They can create a decent profile based on the subs one subscribes to, I imagine. Not as good as FB but better than Twitter.
The General
Footballguy
Was just coming in here to post this. Lots of big tech going this week. After this wild run up anything can happen with the numbers they put out.
Capella
Footballguy
Yea I think I’ll just take my profits on it and go home. I got a few fun things I want to buy lol.
Holding
Me too although I did sell some at 153 a few weeks ago as my cash position was low in my brokerage account, which is where the college payments (year 5 of 12 done) and other big bills get paid. Dumped another stock that was down to avoid taxes as well and get at least one red row gone.
I hope all the reports come in well. Tesla wasn’t surprising considering all the EV lackluster sales news and is really in its own lane. I think Microsoft and Google are tonight so those will tell us more.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Who are you? And what have you done with Cappy?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
That's the buy signal, boys! Time to load up on Amazon.
General Malaise
Footballguy
VRTX saving my day, again. https://www.biospace.com/article/promising-vertex-pain-med-points-to-new-era-for-analgesics/
VRTX: Vertex Pharmaceuticals reports positive Phase 3 results of VX-548 in acute pain - The Phase 3 program included two pivotal trials, one following abdominoplasty surgery and one following bunionectomy surgery, as well as a single arm safety and effectiveness study. Treatment with VX-548 following abdominoplasty or bunionectomy surgery resulted in a statistically significant improvement on the primary endpoint of the time-weighted sum of the pain intensity difference from 0 to 48 hours vs. placebo as well as a clinically meaningful reduction in pain from baseline at 48 hours in both studies.
VRTX: Vertex Pharmaceuticals reports positive Phase 3 results of VX-548 in acute pain - The Phase 3 program included two pivotal trials, one following abdominoplasty surgery and one following bunionectomy surgery, as well as a single arm safety and effectiveness study. Treatment with VX-548 following abdominoplasty or bunionectomy surgery resulted in a statistically significant improvement on the primary endpoint of the time-weighted sum of the pain intensity difference from 0 to 48 hours vs. placebo as well as a clinically meaningful reduction in pain from baseline at 48 hours in both studies.
Capella
Footballguy
lol to be clear I have what I call my giant blockade of Amazon which has been sitting there being added to for a decade now and I’ll probably leave to my kids so they can sell them to support a drug habit or something. But then I also buy some when the price drops to flip later to help with my habit of stupid purchases, like a giant 1981 classic arcade machine coming next week lol. I keep a spreadsheet of stocks I buy to flip later.
Those shares I bought at 96 bucks last march and sold today for 160. Bring me pac man.
I flipped some google last week to pay for a vacation later this year.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Got a nice long term profit in AMD and should have sold it earlier but cest la vie. I'll dump it tomorrow.
Maybe.
Maybe.
Capella
Footballguy
Gambled on some this morning. Whoops!
For weeks, I had mulled over the idea of selling individual stocks that I own which are held in QQQ (namely AAPL, GOOG, and AMZN) in order to spread out risk and also gain access to other names that I like. Sold half of my positions in those three and put that money into QQQ. Not that I was trying to time earnings or anything, just so happened I had time today to hash through all those transactions. Sure QQQ is down after hours, but nothing like what is happening with GOOG. I'm gonna be down about $500 on QQQ but it would have been at least triple that otherwise. Feeling pretty good tonight. Related, if you have not looked at the holdings of QQQ, you should do so. It's a great ETF.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Good gamble!
And I did not sell. I'm too hungover to do anything with money. Well, other than order two breakfast sandwiches from McDonalds.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
I bought another slice yesterday. Relative to the other big name mega caps, it is fairly priced. We all know the business model.
General Malaise
Footballguy
DNN running like a scalded dog.
ChiefD
Footballguy
I bought some of that in my son's account based on your recommendation. Interested to see what happens.
