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Stock Thread (11 Viewers)

jwb said:
PLTR!!

Now keep it this time.
Click to expand...
I don’t think it will. The trading volume is ridiculous. 300M shares traded, will probably be 6-7 times normal trading and I think it’s already a pretty heavily traded stock.

The earnings news, the actual numbers, don’t support the move. It’s funny because the “surge” in AI was announced in the earnings call but their Q4 numbers didn’t beat by much and the Q1 outlook is lower than estimates and the full year 2024 is right at estimates. If they just presented the numbers, it seems almost like a bad report because that surge sure doesn’t appear to be hitting their 2024 numbers.
 
stbugs said:
jwb said:
PLTR!!

Now keep it this time.
Click to expand...
I don’t think it will. The trading volume is ridiculous. 300M shares traded, will probably be 6-7 times normal trading and I think it’s already a pretty heavily traded stock.

The earnings news, the actual numbers, don’t support the move. It’s funny because the “surge” in AI was announced in the earnings call but their Q4 numbers didn’t beat by much and the Q1 outlook is lower than estimates and the full year 2024 is right at estimates. If they just presented the numbers, it seems almost like a bad report because that surge sure doesn’t appear to be hitting their 2024 numbers.
Click to expand...
HODL as always.
 
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LOL has SNAP ever had an earnings that wasn't a disaster? Why do I not just short it every time? I feel like I said that like 4 earnings reports ago. Could have retired by now.
 
All I know about SNAP is that my 11 year old daughter wants it and my wife won't let her and I think this might be what actually kicks off WWIII and anytime they start talking about it the dog and I go for a walk and one day.....one day we're not going to return and take that to the bank.
 
ConstruxBoy said:
stbugs said:
jwb said:
PLTR!!

Now keep it this time.
Click to expand...
I don’t think it will. The trading volume is ridiculous. 300M shares traded, will probably be 6-7 times normal trading and I think it’s already a pretty heavily traded stock.

The earnings news, the actual numbers, don’t support the move. It’s funny because the “surge” in AI was announced in the earnings call but their Q4 numbers didn’t beat by much and the Q1 outlook is lower than estimates and the full year 2024 is right at estimates. If they just presented the numbers, it seems almost like a bad report because that surge sure doesn’t appear to be hitting their 2024 numbers.
Click to expand...
HODL as always.
Click to expand...
If you are holding long term, it doesn’t matter. Short term, the up today was far more than the earnings/guidance warranted.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
LOL has SNAP ever had an earnings that wasn't a disaster? Why do I not just short it every time? I feel like I said that like 4 earnings reports ago. Could have retired by now.
Click to expand...
Yea. I thought about this morning but I’ve never done that and don’t plan to. But seriously somebody is making a killing off of them.
 
General Malaise said:
All I know about SNAP is that my 11 year old daughter wants it and my wife won't let her and I think this might be what actually kicks off WWIII and anytime they start talking about it the dog and I go for a walk and one day.....one day we're not going to return and take that to the bank.
Click to expand...
This is all teenagers. It's the first thing my 13 year old wanted. At 17, it's still probably what she uses most. I assume they just do a #### job of monetizing it? IDK, but it seems like something every teen wants and uses should be able to make some scratch.
 
McBokonon said:
Dwayne Hoover said:
Anyone in FUBO? This one has been on my radar for a while but haven't pulled trigger, down 18% today after earnings.

Yep, they are losing money but an important thing is their subscribers and that is going up.
Click to expand...
I have zero interest in it whatsoever and can't see how they'll truly differentiate in the main two crowded markets they are attempting to compete in
Click to expand...

The sports package announced last night might finally bring about the inevitable end for $FUBO.
 
Stock market is crazy. Dow up, Nasdaq up, S&P record highs, up and Russell 2000 down
MSFT & AAPL both have market caps greater than the entire Russell 2000.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around big numbers to be honest, but how do these megacaps keep going up?
NVDA's market cap went up more than TSLA's market cap over the past 3 months. How
I sold off another 15% of my NVDA when it hit 700 but I feel foolish because these stocks just keep going up. now ARM is up 25% after hours.
 
guru_007 said:
Stock market is crazy. Dow up, Nasdaq up, S&P record highs, up and Russell 2000 down
MSFT & AAPL both have market caps greater than the entire Russell 2000.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around big numbers to be honest, but how do these megacaps keep going up?
NVDA's market cap went up more than TSLA's market cap over the past 3 months. How
I sold off another 15% of my NVDA when it hit 700 but I feel foolish because these stocks just keep going up. now ARM is up 25% after hours.
Click to expand...
People like money idk
 
guru_007 said:
Stock market is crazy. Dow up, Nasdaq up, S&P record highs, up and Russell 2000 down
MSFT & AAPL both have market caps greater than the entire Russell 2000.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around big numbers to be honest, but how do these megacaps keep going up?
NVDA's market cap went up more than TSLA's market cap over the past 3 months. How
I sold off another 15% of my NVDA when it hit 700 but I feel foolish because these stocks just keep going up. now ARM is up 25% after hours.
Click to expand...
It’s bubbly. The AI bump will fade. Some, like Grantham, think the AI sugar staved off a bear market but just temporarily. I’m less negative but still think AI and chip stocks are way ahead of themselves.
 
I've been selling little bits of NVDA during this run up, starting back at 550. Kind of kicking myself for starting that early, but this thing can't go to 1000, right? Right?
 
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.
 
stbugs said:
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.
Click to expand...

Enjoying DIS day. Did not expect to wake up to that this morning.
 
Bogart said:
stbugs said:
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.
Click to expand...

Enjoying DIS day. Did not expect to wake up to that this morning.
Click to expand...
It’s funny because if you told me Disney would miss revenue and exceed earnings, I would have said a few months ago that they’d get whacked. Sentiment has definitely changed to being softer lately. Lots of big companies are doing better with earnings because of cost cutting/layoffs, but you can’t cut your way to increasing revenue. Definitely surprises me that the revenue miss is a non-event.
 
stbugs said:
Bogart said:
stbugs said:
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.
Click to expand...

Enjoying DIS day. Did not expect to wake up to that this morning.
Click to expand...
It’s funny because if you told me Disney would miss revenue and exceed earnings, I would have said a few months ago that they’d get whacked. Sentiment has definitely changed to being softer lately. Lots of big companies are doing better with earnings because of cost cutting/layoffs, but you can’t cut your way to increasing revenue. Definitely surprises me that the revenue miss is a non-event.
Click to expand...

Disney's problem lately has been expenses, not revenue. So if they're showing signs of cutting expenses I think that is what people are looking for.

It's been interesting watching the sentiment around the stock because the theme parks have been more packed than ever and their overall revenue has been higher than ever. It's just that their expenses have BALLOONED. I'm going off memory here but like literally more than tripled from $20B pre-covid to $75B nowadays, annualized.

So people talk about the movies not performing as well and superhero fatigue and the anti-woke crowd pushing back and whatnot but it's like....none of that mattered. Even if you swapped out The Marvels terrible box office performance for that of Infinity War (one of the top grossing movies of all-time) it would have made almost no impact in EPS. The problem hasn't been that Disney missing on a movie meant they did $85.1B instead of $81.6B in revenue. The problem has been that they've been spending $75B instead of $20B.

I meant to make a big long post on this a month or so ago to see what I was missing but never got around to it, but looks like I wasn't really missing anything. Basically a slight miss on the top line is essentially irrelevant because the top line is already great. Their problem has been the bottom line. So a big beat on the bottom line is MUCH more important.
 
stbugs said:
Bogart said:
stbugs said:
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.
Click to expand...

Enjoying DIS day. Did not expect to wake up to that this morning.
Click to expand...
It’s funny because if you told me Disney would miss revenue and exceed earnings, I would have said a few months ago that they’d get whacked. Sentiment has definitely changed to being softer lately. Lots of big companies are doing better with earnings because of cost cutting/layoffs, but you can’t cut your way to increasing revenue. Definitely surprises me that the revenue miss is a non-event.
Click to expand...

Not going to pretend I know anything, but I think the investment Disney is putting into Epic Games (Fortnite) might be helping.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
stbugs said:
Bogart said:
stbugs said:
Wow, ARM feels like a Meme stock now. It feels like there are pile ins going on now. It’s crazy. Their revenue guidance is good but their revenue is showing 14% growth YOY. A 60% stock price jump seems way overpriced.

ARM’s P/S right now is around 40. That’s expensive and lots of tech stocks with P/S that high have way higher growth rates like 50%+.

Definitely a lot of froth out there. DIS having a day and they missed revenue estimates. I’m not negative because the stocks I like have been having solid numbers but man it feels like the pops are way out of whack.
Click to expand...

Enjoying DIS day. Did not expect to wake up to that this morning.
Click to expand...
It’s funny because if you told me Disney would miss revenue and exceed earnings, I would have said a few months ago that they’d get whacked. Sentiment has definitely changed to being softer lately. Lots of big companies are doing better with earnings because of cost cutting/layoffs, but you can’t cut your way to increasing revenue. Definitely surprises me that the revenue miss is a non-event.
Click to expand...

Disney's problem lately has been expenses, not revenue. So if they're showing signs of cutting expenses I think that is what people are looking for.

It's been interesting watching the sentiment around the stock because the theme parks have been more packed than ever and their overall revenue has been higher than ever. It's just that their expenses have BALLOONED. I'm going off memory here but like literally more than tripled from $20B pre-covid to $75B nowadays, annualized.

So people talk about the movies not performing as well and superhero fatigue and the anti-woke crowd pushing back and whatnot but it's like....none of that mattered. Even if you swapped out The Marvels terrible box office performance for that of Infinity War (one of the top grossing movies of all-time) it would have made almost no impact in EPS. The problem hasn't been that Disney missing on a movie meant they did $85.1B instead of $81.6B in revenue. The problem has been that they've been spending $75B instead of $20B.

I meant to make a big long post on this a month or so ago to see what I was missing but never got around to it, but looks like I wasn't really missing anything. Basically a slight miss on the top line is essentially irrelevant because the top line is already great. Their problem has been the bottom line. So a big beat on the bottom line is MUCH more important.
Click to expand...
What drove the spend?
 
pecorino said:
Sand said:
It's time for your intermittent LHUCKS graph here.


Stone cold lock.
Click to expand...
So you’re saying sell? I was just shopping for some new ETFs. My goodness, they are almost all at or near 52 week highs. Think I’ll leave my cash at 5.27% in the money market for a spell.
Click to expand...

All-Time Highs in the Stock Market are Usually Followed by More All-Time Highs

That said, if you look deeper and outside of the top few stocks there seem to be signs that things aren't quite as good as they seem.

So, just like everyone else, in the short term I have no idea what's going to happen!
 
McBokonon said:
pecorino said:
Sand said:
It's time for your intermittent LHUCKS graph here.


Stone cold lock.
Click to expand...
So you’re saying sell? I was just shopping for some new ETFs. My goodness, they are almost all at or near 52 week highs. Think I’ll leave my cash at 5.27% in the money market for a spell.
Click to expand...

Sand is kind of a permabear.
Click to expand...
I just thought it was interesting. Officially put me down for an 8% correction soonish then an extension to more all time highs. We're way over bought currently and market breadth sucks badly.

In the stock market contest I predicted 5555 by years end.
 
SFBayDuck said:
pecorino said:
Sand said:
It's time for your intermittent LHUCKS graph here.


Stone cold lock.
Click to expand...
So you’re saying sell? I was just shopping for some new ETFs. My goodness, they are almost all at or near 52 week highs. Think I’ll leave my cash at 5.27% in the money market for a spell.
Click to expand...

All-Time Highs in the Stock Market are Usually Followed by More All-Time Highs

That said, if you look deeper and outside of the top few stocks there seem to be signs that things aren't quite as good as they seem.

So, just like everyone else, in the short term I have no idea what's going to happen!
Click to expand...

It sure seems the stock market hits more all-time highs than all-time lows
 
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