Stock Thread (17 Viewers)

[Capella]

Is it time to get out?

And do what. How would you know when to get back in?

 

[steelerfan1]

Trade size feels like retail panic. Todem?

Oh yeah...this retail panic.

VXX was up 135% at the open.......this is a rare day.

Take advantage for the long term.

"Take advantage".... let's say there's $2k sitting in cash that wants to be utilized. I've read through many of the posts with your top reco's and such, but are there 3-4 stocks at the moment that really stick out to you? Thanks.

Buy ADX for the long term.

You will own a really well diversified Large Cap Growth portfolio thru that closed end fund.

Top 10 holdings in order are:

MSFT
APPL
NVDA
AMZN
GOOGL
META
JPM
LLY
PEO
V

This represents 41% of the net asset value of this fund.

This fund is a machine and has been around over 100 years.


Just buy this.

Hi Todem, I've seen you recommend this a few times. Curious why you like this more than VTI? When I look at the returns it looks like VTI easily out performs this. What am I missing? Have a little bit of cash left that I was gonna chuck into VTI today, but wanted to see why this is one of your go to funds. Thanks as always for your insight.

 

[McBokonon]

I'm finally getting back into the market.

Dumb?

Did I miss the wave?

Todem

Did I get back into the market at the wrong time?

I just went 2/3 in.

Is NVDA a meme stonk now?

God no.

Hot stock? Yeah. But they are proving it on the top and bottom lines and future guidance and where we are in the "AI" cycle.

There is a bubble forming....no doubt. But NVDA are the ones selling all the pick axes in the gold rush if you get my drift.

What does a bubble forming mean exactly?

TIA

I'm just getting back into the market.

Is this a bad idea?

What would you consider to be Long Term?

TIA

3- 5 years?

Is it time to get out?

I mean this in the nicest way possible - you might just want to auto-invest into index funds and never log into your account, or hire someone.

 

[Sand]

Doubled up on CLS. You guys heard of it?

 

[McBokonon]

Doubled up on CLS. You guys heard of it?

Terrible. Going to 0.

 

[cosjobs]

Doubled up on CLS. You guys heard of it?

I had not. Looks pretty solid. To provide their services in the supply chain, its P/E (15) is great compared to other similar stocks

 

[Todem]

Trade size feels like retail panic. Todem?

Oh yeah...this retail panic.

VXX was up 135% at the open.......this is a rare day.

Take advantage for the long term.

"Take advantage".... let's say there's $2k sitting in cash that wants to be utilized. I've read through many of the posts with your top reco's and such, but are there 3-4 stocks at the moment that really stick out to you? Thanks.

Buy ADX for the long term.

You will own a really well diversified Large Cap Growth portfolio thru that closed end fund.

Top 10 holdings in order are:

MSFT
APPL
NVDA
AMZN
GOOGL
META
JPM
LLY
PEO
V

This represents 41% of the net asset value of this fund.

This fund is a machine and has been around over 100 years.


Just buy this.

Hi Todem, I've seen you recommend this a few times. Curious why you like this more than VTI? When I look at the returns it looks like VTI easily out performs this. What am I missing? Have a little bit of cash left that I was gonna chuck into VTI today, but wanted to see why this is one of your go to funds. Thanks as always for your insight.

VTI is a great way to "index" the market. I won't say The Total Stock Market index is a bad way to go.

But The Wilshire 5000 is not a comparison to ADX.....I would say the S&P 500 is a fair comparison.

I have used The Total Stock Market index as well as VOO (S&P 500) in portfolios to index.

But I also like actively managed funds which can be tactical and not tied to sticking to the cap weighted index's they represent.

I love ADX's approach to "Large Cap and Mega Cap" inversting. And also being they have been around since 1929.......they have a historic track record that index ETF's do not have in comparison.

In the end....there is nothing wrong with diversifying your portfolio to have both passive and active management.

You have those that swear by Vanguard and indexing only.....and that's fine. Over the long term it's proven as well. The reason most people use a person like me is to completely take the emotion out of their financial decisions, and develop diversified risk managed portfolios in both growth and income phases of their investing lives.

If someone is non emotional and disciplined.....they can index all day every day and they would be fine.

The main reason for the outperformance (which by the way is not dramtic over the last 23 years) is the internal costs associated with ADX vs the dirt cheap VTI.

Both have proven great investments.

I went and did a quick and dirty back test to the date of inception for VTI (common start date)

5/24/2001 thru 7/31/2024

Net of any internal fees

VTI averaged 9.27% average annual return
ADX averaged 8.92% average annual return

So .35 basis points of outperformance a year net of internal fees.

Only 4 negative years but I will post 3 since we started mid year 2001.

2002
VTI (-20%)
ADX (-20%)

2008
VTI (-36%)
ADX (-37%)

2022
VTI - (19%)
ADX - (-19%)

This shows that the downside protection of owning 5000 stocks vs 90-100 in ADX did nothing is mass drawdowns.

But over the long term having more diversification helped total return.

Moral of the story......both have proven great invrstments over the long term and both are different styles. One is an all cap approach vs a Large cap approach. One is passive one is active.

I like ADX a lot for those looking for Large Cap funds in comparison to the S&P 500.

 

[Peggy]

Trade size feels like retail panic. Todem?

Oh yeah...this retail panic.

VXX was up 135% at the open.......this is a rare day.

Take advantage for the long term.

"Take advantage".... let's say there's $2k sitting in cash that wants to be utilized. I've read through many of the posts with your top reco's and such, but are there 3-4 stocks at the moment that really stick out to you? Thanks.

Buy ADX for the long term.

You will own a really well diversified Large Cap Growth portfolio thru that closed end fund.

Top 10 holdings in order are:

MSFT
APPL
NVDA
AMZN
GOOGL
META
JPM
LLY
PEO
V

This represents 41% of the net asset value of this fund.

This fund is a machine and has been around over 100 years.


Just buy this.

Hi Todem, I've seen you recommend this a few times. Curious why you like this more than VTI? When I look at the returns it looks like VTI easily out performs this. What am I missing? Have a little bit of cash left that I was gonna chuck into VTI today, but wanted to see why this is one of your go to funds. Thanks as always for your insight.

Right or VOOG that outperforms ADX and you save 0.5% on the expense ratio.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&sl=4ZXJqMc4rqrg5V7F5HkL3I

ETA: Fixed Link

 

[Todem]

Hey I am just giving free advice in here….invest in whatever you think is best for you.

Index till your hearts content.

ADX fully paid for my sons car and college so what do I know…..

 

[culdeus]

Hey I am just giving free advice in here….invest in whatever you think is best for you.

Index till your hearts content.

ADX fully paid for my sons car and college so what do I know…..

Here's the thing. Buy anything 20 years ago pretty much paid off college, or more. 1 or 2% here or there isn't worth stressing over if some manager switch puts you in the weeds.

 

[bp1]

Trade size feels like retail panic. Todem?

Oh yeah...this retail panic.

VXX was up 135% at the open.......this is a rare day.

Take advantage for the long term.

"Take advantage".... let's say there's $2k sitting in cash that wants to be utilized. I've read through many of the posts with your top reco's and such, but are there 3-4 stocks at the moment that really stick out to you? Thanks.

Buy ADX for the long term.

You will own a really well diversified Large Cap Growth portfolio thru that closed end fund.

Top 10 holdings in order are:

MSFT
APPL
NVDA
AMZN
GOOGL
META
JPM
LLY
PEO
V

This represents 41% of the net asset value of this fund.

This fund is a machine and has been around over 100 years.


Just buy this.

Thank you.

 

[steelerfan1]

Trade size feels like retail panic. Todem?

Oh yeah...this retail panic.

VXX was up 135% at the open.......this is a rare day.

Take advantage for the long term.

"Take advantage".... let's say there's $2k sitting in cash that wants to be utilized. I've read through many of the posts with your top reco's and such, but are there 3-4 stocks at the moment that really stick out to you? Thanks.

Buy ADX for the long term.

You will own a really well diversified Large Cap Growth portfolio thru that closed end fund.

Top 10 holdings in order are:

MSFT
APPL
NVDA
AMZN
GOOGL
META
JPM
LLY
PEO
V

This represents 41% of the net asset value of this fund.

This fund is a machine and has been around over 100 years.


Just buy this.

Hi Todem, I've seen you recommend this a few times. Curious why you like this more than VTI? When I look at the returns it looks like VTI easily out performs this. What am I missing? Have a little bit of cash left that I was gonna chuck into VTI today, but wanted to see why this is one of your go to funds. Thanks as always for your insight.

VTI is a great way to "index" the market. I won't say The Total Stock Market index is a bad way to go.

But The Wilshire 5000 is not a comparison to ADX.....I would say the S&P 500 is a fair comparison.

I have used The Total Stock Market index as well as VOO (S&P 500) in portfolios to index.

But I also like actively managed funds which can be tactical and not tied to sticking to the cap weighted index's they represent.

I love ADX's approach to "Large Cap and Mega Cap" inversting. And also being they have been around since 1929.......they have a historic track record that index ETF's do not have in comparison.

In the end....there is nothing wrong with diversifying your portfolio to have both passive and active management.

You have those that swear by Vanguard and indexing only.....and that's fine. Over the long term it's proven as well. The reason most people use a person like me is to completely take the emotion out of their financial decisions, and develop diversified risk managed portfolios in both growth and income phases of their investing lives.

If someone is non emotional and disciplined.....they can index all day every day and they would be fine.

The main reason for the outperformance (which by the way is not dramtic over the last 23 years) is the internal costs associated with ADX vs the dirt cheap VTI.

Both have proven great investments.

I went and did a quick and dirty back test to the date of inception for VTI (common start date)

5/24/2001 thru 7/31/2024

Net of any internal fees

VTI averaged 9.27% average annual return
ADX averaged 8.92% average annual return

So .35 basis points of outperformance a year net of internal fees.

Only 4 negative years but I will post 3 since we started mid year 2001.

2002
VTI (-20%)
ADX (-20%)

2008
VTI (-36%)
ADX (-37%)

2022
VTI - (19%)
ADX - (-19%)

This shows that the downside protection of owning 5000 stocks vs 90-100 in ADX did nothing is mass drawdowns.

But over the long term having more diversification helped total return.

Moral of the story......both have proven great invrstments over the long term and both are different styles. One is an all cap approach vs a Large cap approach. One is passive one is active.

I like ADX a lot for those looking for Large Cap funds in comparison to the S&P 500.

Thanks for your time!

 

[Todem]

Hey I am just giving free advice in here….invest in whatever you think is best for you.

Index till your hearts content.

ADX fully paid for my sons car and college so what do I know…..

Here's the thing. Buy anything 20 years ago pretty much paid off college, or more. 1 or 2% here or there isn't worth stressing over if some manager switch puts you in the weeds.

100 plus years of trust I have in this group......like I said do whatever makes you feel comfortable.

And you would be stunned how bad the retail investor is....because of emotions. Then again you are a savvy guy...probably not.

 

[culdeus]

Hey I am just giving free advice in here….invest in whatever you think is best for you.

Index till your hearts content.

ADX fully paid for my sons car and college so what do I know…..

Here's the thing. Buy anything 20 years ago pretty much paid off college, or more. 1 or 2% here or there isn't worth stressing over if some manager switch puts you in the weeds.

100 plus years of trust I have in this group......like I said do whatever makes you feel comfortable.

And you would be stunned how bad the retail investor is....because of emotions. Then again you are a savvy guy...probably not.

No worries. And I respect your opinion on all this. I prefer my investments to be simple and my scotch to be complex.

If I can't read a prospectus and understand the buy and sell signals then I'm out. I'm ok leaving money on the table if I miss out.

 

[Todem]

Hey I am just giving free advice in here….invest in whatever you think is best for you.

Index till your hearts content.

ADX fully paid for my sons car and college so what do I know…..

Here's the thing. Buy anything 20 years ago pretty much paid off college, or more. 1 or 2% here or there isn't worth stressing over if some manager switch puts you in the weeds.

100 plus years of trust I have in this group......like I said do whatever makes you feel comfortable.

And you would be stunned how bad the retail investor is....because of emotions. Then again you are a savvy guy...probably not.

No worries. And I respect your opinion on all this. I prefer my investments to be simple and my scotch to be complex.

If I can't read a prospectus and understand the buy and sell signals then I'm out. I'm ok leaving money on the table if I miss out.

Believe it or not....I am considered a keep it simple guy.

I do not get too complex. I just am extremely disciplined. And I have a talent for building strong long term portoflios for growth and really nice current income portfolios to harvest when that time comes.

And it's not complicated.

Love the Scotch comment HAHAHA.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Trade size feels like retail panic. Todem?

Oh yeah...this retail panic.

VXX was up 135% at the open.......this is a rare day.

Take advantage for the long term.

"Take advantage".... let's say there's $2k sitting in cash that wants to be utilized. I've read through many of the posts with your top reco's and such, but are there 3-4 stocks at the moment that really stick out to you? Thanks.

Buy ADX for the long term.

You will own a really well diversified Large Cap Growth portfolio thru that closed end fund.

Top 10 holdings in order are:

MSFT
APPL
NVDA
AMZN
GOOGL
META
JPM
LLY
PEO
V

This represents 41% of the net asset value of this fund.

This fund is a machine and has been around over 100 years.


Just buy this.

Love those old school funds. I bought the Fidelity Contrafund for my daughter and she and I just keep putting money in.

 

[Charlie Harper]

NVDA on sale or dropping more? I don't have any shares so thinking of getting some vs more VFIAX

 

[Steeler]

I was late to NVDA, so bot some more today.

 

[fruity pebbles]

NVDA on sale or dropping more? I don't have any shares so thinking of getting some vs more VFIAX

I mean who knows but I started a position for the first time at market open. The 35% haircut seemed like more a market issue than a company issue

 

[[icon]]

Put about 10% of my dry powder back to work and Grabbed some INTC under 20 and added QQQ at 424, but mostly still keeping a decent chunk on the sidelines for now.

 

[culdeus]

Somehow a 3% down day feels goos

 

[Sand]

Interesting - Google declared a monopoly, but the market is shrugging it off.

 

[Capella]

I’ve had worse days. Merely a flesh wound.

 

[guru_007]

Been a pretty ugly August over here for me.
I have a feeling there will be more to go though. Hopefully not TOO much more though.
Then we have Jackson Hole, and that first Tuesday after first Monday in November thing to contend with. bumpity bump bump

 

[McBokonon]

Grabbed some INTC under 20

There's 499 other stocks in the S&P 500.

 

[McBokonon]

I NVDA

Top

Looks like the boob-signing indicator was right again.

 

[The Man With No Name]

PLTR

 

[Nick Vermeil]

Day tradeded some MARA for a quick 15% in the fun account. Needed new skis and boots for the whole family.

 

[The General]

Interesting - Google declared a monopoly, but the market is shrugging it off.

I saw this headline and checked AH’s trading expecting to see another giant red number.

Probably coming tomorrow

 

[Judge Smails]

My advisor sent me an opportunity he has to get in pre-IPO on SpaceX. Haven’t read through the prospectus yet. $50K min. He views this as one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. He’s a fiduciary for what it’s worth. Thoughts? Have to decide by Wednesday

 

[fruity pebbles]

Woof, three weeks Nasdaq down over 13%

 

[GoBirds]

What’s on sale that your buying ?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

My advisor sent me an opportunity he has to get in pre-IPO on SpaceX. Haven’t read through the prospectus yet. $50K min. He views this as one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. He’s a fiduciary for what it’s worth. Thoughts? Have to decide by Wednesday

I have some from a similar opportunity about a year ago. What valuation would it be at?

I'm guessing around $200bn? Doesn't seem to matter the number. Every time some comes available it's more expensive than last time. Everyone wants a piece.

Now that Musk got paid out from Tesla I don't see SpaceX IPO'ing until after they land a person on Mars, so you'd have to be okay having it locked up for a long, long time. Best case scenario short/medium term is a Starlink spinoff.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

What’s on sale that your buying ?

Yes.

 

[culdeus]

Someone pumping usdjpy pretty hard. If this usdjpy theory has legs need to see a calming

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Man this morning was a heck of an opportunity. Bad time to be caught up with client calls until lunch time.

Seems like usually when this happens and it gets immediately bought back up like this, we end up re-testing those panic lows a little bit later (though usually not immediately). I'm going to wait for that to really start piling in any substantial new money. If it never happens I'm okay with things going back to where they were with my current holdings.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Man this morning was a heck of an opportunity. Bad time to be caught up with client calls until lunch time.

Seems like usually when this happens and it gets immediately bought back up like this, we end up re-testing those panic lows a little bit later (though usually not immediately). I'm going to wait for that to really start piling in any substantial new money. If it never happens I'm okay with things going back to where they were with my current holdings.

You didn’t necessarily miss much. Many were unable to access the various trading site at all. I was able to get on Fidelity right at 930 before it went down and placed a market order when Nvidia was at 92 and low change, it ended up filling at 94 and high change. That early dip went quickly.

 

[General Malaise]

My advisor sent me an opportunity he has to get in pre-IPO on SpaceX. Haven’t read through the prospectus yet. $50K min. He views this as one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. He’s a fiduciary for what it’s worth. Thoughts? Have to decide by Wednesday

What's the lock-up?

 

[Sand]

Nikkei doing it's best superball imitation - up 10%.

 

[Judge Smails]

My advisor sent me an opportunity he has to get in pre-IPO on SpaceX. Haven’t read through the prospectus yet. $50K min. He views this as one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. He’s a fiduciary for what it’s worth. Thoughts? Have to decide by Wednesday

I have some from a similar opportunity about a year ago. What valuation would it be at?

I'm guessing around $200bn? Doesn't seem to matter the number. Every time some comes available it's more expensive than last time. Everyone wants a piece.

Now that Musk got paid out from Tesla I don't see SpaceX IPO'ing until after they land a person on Mars, so you'd have to be okay having it locked up for a long, long time. Best case scenario short/medium term is a Starlink spinoff.

Bloomberg article: SpaceX Tender Offer Said to Value Company at $210 Billion



How it works:

• We need indications of interest (IOIs) to reserve capacity (by 8/7 at latest).
• Our CS team will help prepare sub docs (DocuSign).
• Sub docs (DocuSign) and funding are due in mid-August.
• Qualified purchaser (QP) only.
• $50,000 minimums (per investor).
• Approved for custody (Schwab)
• We can accept taxable & tax-exempt (IRAs).

 

[Judge Smails]

My advisor sent me an opportunity he has to get in pre-IPO on SpaceX. Haven’t read through the prospectus yet. $50K min. He views this as one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. He’s a fiduciary for what it’s worth. Thoughts? Have to decide by Wednesday

What's the lock-up?

Don’t see lock up mentioned

SpaceX at a glance:
• MS forecasts SpaceX FY24 revenues of ~$13bn, up ~54% YoY.
• Starlink has 2.6 million subscribers (March '24), growing near 25k subs per week.
• SpaceX is profitable (according to SpaceX, the company turned a profit in 1Q23).
• SpaceX launches payloads for 5-10x lower than the cost of most of its competitors ($/Kg).
• SpaceX launched nearly 1 rocket every 3 days in 2023.
• In March 2024, SpaceX launched 3 rockets within the span of 24 hours.
• By the end of FY24, SpaceX’s will account for ~60% of all functioning satellites in orbit.
• Around 90% of the earth’s surface currently does not have cell service.
• Around 2.7bn people do not have internet access.
• The only private contractor to send astronauts to International Space Station (ISS).
• SpaceX is a critical partner in NASA’s Artemis mission to return astronauts to the moon for
the first time since 1972.
• SpaceX has over 13,000 employees (as of September 2023).
• July 2024 tender offer valued SpaceX at $210bn, up from $180bn in December 2023.
• Most recent valuation puts SpaceX equity value ~10x MS’s FY25 revenue forecast.

Tender – Terms & Conditions
GP Sponsor Quiet Capital
SPV Sponsor First Trust Capital Management
Investor Eligibility Qualified Purchaser (QP)
Investor Entities Taxable & Tax-Exempt (IRAs) Permitted
Investment Minimum $50,000 (Per Investor)
Transaction Type Company-Run Tender (July 2024)
Tender Valuation ~$210 billion
Price Per-Share ~$112.00
Total Fee Structure 1.40% management fee, 20.00% carried interest
Reserved Capacity $25 million reserved capacity for LPs

 

[General Malaise]

My advisor sent me an opportunity he has to get in pre-IPO on SpaceX. Haven’t read through the prospectus yet. $50K min. He views this as one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. He’s a fiduciary for what it’s worth. Thoughts? Have to decide by Wednesday

What's the lock-up?

Don’t see lock up mentioned

SpaceX at a glance:
• MS forecasts SpaceX FY24 revenues of ~$13bn, up ~54% YoY.
• Starlink has 2.6 million subscribers (March '24), growing near 25k subs per week.
• SpaceX is profitable (according to SpaceX, the company turned a profit in 1Q23).
• SpaceX launches payloads for 5-10x lower than the cost of most of its competitors ($/Kg).
• SpaceX launched nearly 1 rocket every 3 days in 2023.
• In March 2024, SpaceX launched 3 rockets within the span of 24 hours.
• By the end of FY24, SpaceX’s will account for ~60% of all functioning satellites in orbit.
• Around 90% of the earth’s surface currently does not have cell service.
• Around 2.7bn people do not have internet access.
• The only private contractor to send astronauts to International Space Station (ISS).
• SpaceX is a critical partner in NASA’s Artemis mission to return astronauts to the moon for
the first time since 1972.
• SpaceX has over 13,000 employees (as of September 2023).
• July 2024 tender offer valued SpaceX at $210bn, up from $180bn in December 2023.
• Most recent valuation puts SpaceX equity value ~10x MS’s FY25 revenue forecast.

Tender – Terms & Conditions
GP Sponsor Quiet Capital
SPV Sponsor First Trust Capital Management
Investor Eligibility Qualified Purchaser (QP)
Investor Entities Taxable & Tax-Exempt (IRAs) Permitted
Investment Minimum $50,000 (Per Investor)
Transaction Type Company-Run Tender (July 2024)
Tender Valuation ~$210 billion
Price Per-Share ~$112.00
Total Fee Structure 1.40% management fee, 20.00% carried interest
Reserved Capacity $25 million reserved capacity for LPs

So you will be able to buy $50K at the IPO print and be able to sell 100% of your shares seconds after the market opens? I kinda have some doubts here.

 

[General Malaise]

My advisor sent me an opportunity he has to get in pre-IPO on SpaceX. Haven’t read through the prospectus yet. $50K min. He views this as one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. He’s a fiduciary for what it’s worth. Thoughts? Have to decide by Wednesday

What's the lock-up?

Don’t see lock up mentioned

SpaceX at a glance:
• MS forecasts SpaceX FY24 revenues of ~$13bn, up ~54% YoY.
• Starlink has 2.6 million subscribers (March '24), growing near 25k subs per week.
• SpaceX is profitable (according to SpaceX, the company turned a profit in 1Q23).
• SpaceX launches payloads for 5-10x lower than the cost of most of its competitors ($/Kg).
• SpaceX launched nearly 1 rocket every 3 days in 2023.
• In March 2024, SpaceX launched 3 rockets within the span of 24 hours.
• By the end of FY24, SpaceX’s will account for ~60% of all functioning satellites in orbit.
• Around 90% of the earth’s surface currently does not have cell service.
• Around 2.7bn people do not have internet access.
• The only private contractor to send astronauts to International Space Station (ISS).
• SpaceX is a critical partner in NASA’s Artemis mission to return astronauts to the moon for
the first time since 1972.
• SpaceX has over 13,000 employees (as of September 2023).
• July 2024 tender offer valued SpaceX at $210bn, up from $180bn in December 2023.
• Most recent valuation puts SpaceX equity value ~10x MS’s FY25 revenue forecast.

Tender – Terms & Conditions
GP Sponsor Quiet Capital
SPV Sponsor First Trust Capital Management
Investor Eligibility Qualified Purchaser (QP)
Investor Entities Taxable & Tax-Exempt (IRAs) Permitted
Investment Minimum $50,000 (Per Investor)
Transaction Type Company-Run Tender (July 2024)
Tender Valuation ~$210 billion
Price Per-Share ~$112.00
Total Fee Structure 1.40% management fee, 20.00% carried interest
Reserved Capacity $25 million reserved capacity for LPs

So you will be able to buy $50K at the IPO print and be able to sell 100% of your shares seconds after the market opens? I kinda have some doubts here.

I think you are being asked to participate in a closed-end fund that is able to buy Space-X stock and are not able to buy the stock individually. See the "Fee Structure" line.

If you do this, you'll be forced to adhere to their management decisions and won't have autonomy to move in or out.

Just want to make sure you know what the offer is before jumping in.


I could be wrong, but this is a solicitation that has fees as an added layer to owning the stock.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

My advisor sent me an opportunity he has to get in pre-IPO on SpaceX. Haven’t read through the prospectus yet. $50K min. He views this as one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. He’s a fiduciary for what it’s worth. Thoughts? Have to decide by Wednesday

What's the lock-up?

Don’t see lock up mentioned

SpaceX at a glance:
• MS forecasts SpaceX FY24 revenues of ~$13bn, up ~54% YoY.
• Starlink has 2.6 million subscribers (March '24), growing near 25k subs per week.
• SpaceX is profitable (according to SpaceX, the company turned a profit in 1Q23).
• SpaceX launches payloads for 5-10x lower than the cost of most of its competitors ($/Kg).
• SpaceX launched nearly 1 rocket every 3 days in 2023.
• In March 2024, SpaceX launched 3 rockets within the span of 24 hours.
• By the end of FY24, SpaceX’s will account for ~60% of all functioning satellites in orbit.
• Around 90% of the earth’s surface currently does not have cell service.
• Around 2.7bn people do not have internet access.
• The only private contractor to send astronauts to International Space Station (ISS).
• SpaceX is a critical partner in NASA’s Artemis mission to return astronauts to the moon for
the first time since 1972.
• SpaceX has over 13,000 employees (as of September 2023).
• July 2024 tender offer valued SpaceX at $210bn, up from $180bn in December 2023.
• Most recent valuation puts SpaceX equity value ~10x MS’s FY25 revenue forecast.

Tender – Terms & Conditions
GP Sponsor Quiet Capital
SPV Sponsor First Trust Capital Management
Investor Eligibility Qualified Purchaser (QP)
Investor Entities Taxable & Tax-Exempt (IRAs) Permitted
Investment Minimum $50,000 (Per Investor)
Transaction Type Company-Run Tender (July 2024)
Tender Valuation ~$210 billion
Price Per-Share ~$112.00
Total Fee Structure 1.40% management fee, 20.00% carried interest
Reserved Capacity $25 million reserved capacity for LPs

So you will be able to buy $50K at the IPO print and be able to sell 100% of your shares seconds after the market opens? I kinda have some doubts here.

Not at the IPO print. At the price he's being quoted at. $112 per share ($210bn valuation). By the time it IPOs it could be $1T or $100m.

I doubt he'll be able to sell right at IPO. Usually these things have a ~6 month lockup.

You are correct that a fund would hold the shares until after IPO and lockup. Only at that time would they be distributed to him.

If you're an accredited investor, there are secondary shares markets where you can access to deals like these fairly regularly.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

What’s on sale that your buying ?

FTNT

 

[ChiefD]

My advisor sent me an opportunity he has to get in pre-IPO on SpaceX. Haven’t read through the prospectus yet. $50K min. He views this as one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. He’s a fiduciary for what it’s worth. Thoughts? Have to decide by Wednesday

What's the lock-up?

Don’t see lock up mentioned

SpaceX at a glance:
• MS forecasts SpaceX FY24 revenues of ~$13bn, up ~54% YoY.
• Starlink has 2.6 million subscribers (March '24), growing near 25k subs per week.
• SpaceX is profitable (according to SpaceX, the company turned a profit in 1Q23).
• SpaceX launches payloads for 5-10x lower than the cost of most of its competitors ($/Kg).
• SpaceX launched nearly 1 rocket every 3 days in 2023.
• In March 2024, SpaceX launched 3 rockets within the span of 24 hours.
• By the end of FY24, SpaceX’s will account for ~60% of all functioning satellites in orbit.
• Around 90% of the earth’s surface currently does not have cell service.
• Around 2.7bn people do not have internet access.
• The only private contractor to send astronauts to International Space Station (ISS).
• SpaceX is a critical partner in NASA’s Artemis mission to return astronauts to the moon for
the first time since 1972.
• SpaceX has over 13,000 employees (as of September 2023).
• July 2024 tender offer valued SpaceX at $210bn, up from $180bn in December 2023.
• Most recent valuation puts SpaceX equity value ~10x MS’s FY25 revenue forecast.

Tender – Terms & Conditions
GP Sponsor Quiet Capital
SPV Sponsor First Trust Capital Management
Investor Eligibility Qualified Purchaser (QP)
Investor Entities Taxable & Tax-Exempt (IRAs) Permitted
Investment Minimum $50,000 (Per Investor)
Transaction Type Company-Run Tender (July 2024)
Tender Valuation ~$210 billion
Price Per-Share ~$112.00
Total Fee Structure 1.40% management fee, 20.00% carried interest
Reserved Capacity $25 million reserved capacity for LPs

As a guy who lives in a very rural area now where cell service is spotty and companies just don't run wire, Starlink is money.

I'm getting about 130mbs download. It's easy to hook up. It's costly - $120 a month.

But I own the satellite receiver on my end and it's by far the best option for me. A fair amount of people up here use it. And as the world changes and more people move out to the sticks, I could see this one being golden for the long term. I'm just a user though - not any kind of finance guy.

 

[bp1]

What’s on sale that your buying ?

FTNT

Are you expecting some news and/or earnings beat today?

 

[guru_007]

My advisor sent me an opportunity he has to get in pre-IPO on SpaceX. Haven’t read through the prospectus yet. $50K min. He views this as one of those once in a lifetime opportunities. He’s a fiduciary for what it’s worth. Thoughts? Have to decide by Wednesday

What's the lock-up?

Don’t see lock up mentioned

SpaceX at a glance:
• MS forecasts SpaceX FY24 revenues of ~$13bn, up ~54% YoY.
• Starlink has 2.6 million subscribers (March '24), growing near 25k subs per week.
• SpaceX is profitable (according to SpaceX, the company turned a profit in 1Q23).
• SpaceX launches payloads for 5-10x lower than the cost of most of its competitors ($/Kg).
• SpaceX launched nearly 1 rocket every 3 days in 2023.
• In March 2024, SpaceX launched 3 rockets within the span of 24 hours.
• By the end of FY24, SpaceX’s will account for ~60% of all functioning satellites in orbit.
• Around 90% of the earth’s surface currently does not have cell service.
• Around 2.7bn people do not have internet access.
• The only private contractor to send astronauts to International Space Station (ISS).
• SpaceX is a critical partner in NASA’s Artemis mission to return astronauts to the moon for
the first time since 1972.
• SpaceX has over 13,000 employees (as of September 2023).
• July 2024 tender offer valued SpaceX at $210bn, up from $180bn in December 2023.
• Most recent valuation puts SpaceX equity value ~10x MS’s FY25 revenue forecast.

Tender – Terms & Conditions
GP Sponsor Quiet Capital
SPV Sponsor First Trust Capital Management
Investor Eligibility Qualified Purchaser (QP)
Investor Entities Taxable & Tax-Exempt (IRAs) Permitted
Investment Minimum $50,000 (Per Investor)
Transaction Type Company-Run Tender (July 2024)
Tender Valuation ~$210 billion
Price Per-Share ~$112.00
Total Fee Structure 1.40% management fee, 20.00% carried interest
Reserved Capacity $25 million reserved capacity for LPs

So you will be able to buy $50K at the IPO print and be able to sell 100% of your shares seconds after the market opens? I kinda have some doubts here.

Not at the IPO print. At the price he's being quoted at. $112 per share ($210bn valuation). By the time it IPOs it could be $1T or $100m.

I doubt he'll be able to sell right at IPO. Usually these things have a ~6 month lockup.

You are correct that a fund would hold the shares until after IPO and lockup. Only at that time would they be distributed to him.

If you're an accredited investor, there are secondary shares markets where you can access to deals like these fairly regularly.

Pretty much nailed it here.
Judge, I'm by no means an expert here, and my risk tolerance has definitely skewed down as I get older, but this is purely a gamble. There'll definitely be a lockup, and you can already get into this thing in other means. Company is already richly valued, IMHO.

When I think of SpaceX, I just take a look at the chart for SPCE and that gives me enough pause to not dig further.

Of course, betting on Musk has been a pretty big winning bet in the past. either way, g'luck

 

[pecorino]

Vanguard has been down all morning

What’s on sale that your buying ?

FTNT

MRNA. Beat to a pulp recently.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

What’s on sale that your buying ?

FTNT

Are you expecting some news and/or earnings beat today?

No, just like the cybersecurity market and most of my investment in that is in PANW, so adding their competitor at a good discount seems like a great use of dry powder. PANW is reasonably cheap as well.