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Stock Thread (46 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
culdeus
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Bad quarter, bad year, bad 2017 growth forecast, even worse 2017 income forecast, CFO resigning
Otherwise everything looks great.
Otherwise everything looks great.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Starting a new long term portfolio, I intend on using it in 15-18 years to do two things - buy a summer house and possibly kids college money. I'm trying to find the lowest maintenance portfolio possible, here is what I'm thinking - any feedback from some of the veterans would be appreciated.
Dollar cost average $7,500 (plus 1 share of Amazon) every quarter forever no matter what. I've decided to use Interactive Brokers to hold this portfolio, as long as you have $100k in the account you avoid their monthly fees and their commissions are by far the lowest out there.
Portfolio:
33% S&P - SPY
10% REIT - 7.5% for VNQ 2.5% for CCI
10 % International - 5% GXC (China) 5% SCHE (Emerging)
10% Small Cap - VBK
10% Technology/biotechnology - 5%/5% XLK / IBB
5% Gold - GLD
15% Bonds - 7.5% / 7.5% Doubline Bond Fund DBLTX / Vanguard Total Bond Fund VBMFX
7% Healthcare - VHT
1 share of Amazon on top every quarter
Feedback appreciated
Dollar cost average $7,500 (plus 1 share of Amazon) every quarter forever no matter what. I've decided to use Interactive Brokers to hold this portfolio, as long as you have $100k in the account you avoid their monthly fees and their commissions are by far the lowest out there.
Portfolio:
33% S&P - SPY
10% REIT - 7.5% for VNQ 2.5% for CCI
10 % International - 5% GXC (China) 5% SCHE (Emerging)
10% Small Cap - VBK
10% Technology/biotechnology - 5%/5% XLK / IBB
5% Gold - GLD
15% Bonds - 7.5% / 7.5% Doubline Bond Fund DBLTX / Vanguard Total Bond Fund VBMFX
7% Healthcare - VHT
1 share of Amazon on top every quarter
Feedback appreciated
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Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Looks good. I would split the 10% of VBK into 5% VBK and 5% VBR. VBR is the Vanguard small value, VBK is vanguard small growth. Also, I might carve out some of the allocation from Reits into Financials (XLF), banks are still lower in terms of PE than the market and should continue to do well with rising rates
General Malaise
Footballguy
High grade cobalt prices advanced 16% for January. Market continues to tighten. Price range $17.25 - $18.00 just released from Metal Pages.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
So I'm using Interactive Brokers for this account. My entire theory here is dollar cost average, I think the market is expensive, so I'm just putting an equal amount every quarter in perpetuity.
Quick review of Interactive Brokers:
The one thing I really don't like is they don't do fractional shares in the DRIP, this is long term investing, I want the DRIP and I want the fractional shares.
At the end of the day; super low costs > bad customer service & fractional shares.
Quick review of Interactive Brokers:
- By far the cheapest broker
- Good execution
- Awful customer service
- No fractional shares on DRIP
The one thing I really don't like is they don't do fractional shares in the DRIP, this is long term investing, I want the DRIP and I want the fractional shares.
At the end of the day; super low costs > bad customer service & fractional shares.
culdeus
Footballguy
Schwab has no cost to trade their funds and their expense ratios are basically 0 if a client.
Fidelity has a similar relationship with IShares.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I like a lot of the Vanguard Funds, their expense ratios are like all between .08 & .12%. The IB costs are insanely low too, so I'm not going to run in circles to save < $100 a year.
The Big Guy
Fear the Blitz
Why not just go with Vanguard since you are picking many of their funds and they have zero cost trading on those?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'm also going to add 5 shares of FB in here a quarter too. I don't use it, don't like it, but I understand the value.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
While Vanguard has the largest share of tickers in there, there is a healthy mix of funds. Just factoring the IB costs, as long as you keep the net liquidation value at a certain threshold, my quarterly trades are going to equal roughly $17, I don't want to run in circles and make myself nuts for that dollar amount a quarter.
Curious, do they have fractional shares available in their DRIP, same question to @culdeus
Prob the only thing that would get me to reconsider.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
My brokerage with them is thru my 401k so I don't use Drip, my main savings is at schwab with a small amount at MLDirect.
The Big Guy
Fear the Blitz
Yes they do, so might even be a tad cheaper for you to do the Vanguard funds directly through Vanguard and the rest through IB if you want to, splitting the money send every month will not be a big deal I imagine
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
culdeus
Footballguy
I don't have the option my company doesn't allow it.
My 401k is setup like this:
Company defined plan must = 10% or more of total balance.
If I choose to use the external brokerage account I can sweep 90% there in cash, but they will not auto-purchase or allocate funds for me without a giant fee. (Talking like 110 basis points just to sweep stuff, absurd)
The 10% into the defined plan will allocate with no extra fees.
So it just goes to cash every two weeks and I have to go in and buy whatever matches my allocation. Lately I've been getting lazy and buying a 2050 fund and when that hits a value of like 10k I sell it and move it around. Ishares is commission free and on a reduced expense ratio so I have alot of ishares stuff in my 401k and mostly SCHx funds in my main accounts at schwab to keep fees low.
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Did you ever look at the Franklin Income Fund I told you about?
Too much gold IMO. 2% max allocation. Long term gold is a loser. It simply should be used as an equity hedge in volatile markets. My opinion of course. If you are going to use some sectors...I love Biotech and tech...also add in Utilities. Great yield, low beta, long term they are golden and will lower your overall volatility. I would split your large cap and small exposure though into half value, half growth. Again for more diversification. Like Emerging markets.....but would not pigeon hole yourself to just China with that other 5%. Look for a good developed international growth and value fund (core).
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I added VBR and split it with VBK, so I diversified there.
In terms of gold, at $1,200 an ounce, I think it has room to go over the next few years. I'm also of the ilk that the market is highly overvalued, which is why I'm taking the dollar cost average approach instead of piling in. I think in the next few years (especially during this administration) there is a lot of volatility ahead - I was going to go 20% bonds, but this is long term and I'm young, so I decided to shift that other 5% to gold and leave 15% bonds. I understand the argument against, but I'm in the camp that says gold has a lot of room to go. I don't think a trade war is farfetched either, who knows what the current administration will do, he has said it a few times, I would not be surprised to see him act... That 5% would be a tremendous hedge in that scenario.
In terms of China, I debated putting more into a world fund, but I'm a China bull. If we enter a trade war, I can see them being the biggest benefactor... Even without it, I like their prospects over the next 20-30 years, so I put a decent chunk into it.
I am going to add utilities in though, a sector I think should be in this portfolio.
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Sand
Footballguy
I hate gold completely, but 5% isn't going to kill anything. And there are folks who think the Permanent Portfolio is a great way to invest, so you're not alone in liking gold.fantasycurse42 said:
I wouldn't add utilities to your list as a breakout - as a group they are fantastically overvalued at the moment. Come back to that thought in a year or two when they come back to earth.
Thoughts on CDW? Bought a small position last week at 53.29 and they're at 55.76 after earnings today. So, they're at their 52 week high but all they ever seem to do is produce. It's for my ROTH, where I like to have a lot of dividend growth stocks. They have raised their quarterly dividend from .0675 to .1075 to .16 where it is now, and they promise more growth here in the future. I'm looking long-term. I kind of want to add some more but wanted to see if anyone else here has them on their radar, too. What am I missing?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
If March were on the table, I think they'd have given some indication of that. Best guess (and it's JUST a guess), June.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Appreciate the input......trying to time the refi of a commercial mortgage and while I know they called for 3 or 4 hikes I wonder how much is talk as our economy can't handle rates getting too high.
Usually go with options tied to the treasury but also considering LIBOR.....does it trend similar?
Sand
Footballguy
Last meeting notes were more dovish without a mention of hikes, as I remember. So really it's anyone's guess.
The Big Guy
Fear the Blitz
Gild....ouch and more ouch. Damn them and their finding a cure ruining their business future.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Sand
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Wasn't my intention, but another 6.6% in 5 weeks... back out. Nickels and dimes and a little bit of time imo
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Anyone pulling out of the market? I haven't done anything with my IRA this year and I don't know if I will since I bought a house but what happens with rate hikes? Some kind of pull back or what? It seems like it just keeps going up... surely this can't keep going, no?
9/16/16 ECSIF closed at .44
+70% YTD......
2/13/17 ECSIF currently sits at .675
I think that's +53.4%
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Got stopped out at .60 last week when it dipped. Which is still a fine result. But...
Sand
Footballguy
The market is obviously pricing in an expectation of an economic renaissance under Trump. Where that train ends is anyone's guess.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
WASHINGTON, Feb 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates at an upcoming meeting, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Tuesday, although she flagged considerable uncertainty over economic policy under the Trump administration.
Yellen said delaying rate increases could leave the Fed's policymaking committee behind the curve and eventually lead it to hike rates quickly, which she said could cause a recession.
"Waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise," Yellen said in prepared remarks before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, citing the central bank's expectations the job market will tighten further and that inflation would rise to 2 percent.
"At our upcoming meetings, the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with these expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate."
Yellen did not say if Fed policymakers expected the economy would warrant three interest rate increases this year, as they last signaled in December. Nor did she give indications whether the first rate hike of the year might come at its next meeting in March or at the subsequent June meeting, which is when most analysts expect a rate increase.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
This market is ridiculous, just took a look at my 401k for the first time in a little while, up 4.1% on the year - assume just about everyone is in the same range give or take?
Got hammered on those NG options - guess winter no longer exists
Oh yea, Tesla... I mean, are they somehow not the most overvalued company ever? If the answer is no, then you either believe one of the two following things, right? GM/F/TM and all similar are undervalued or they will be ceding gigantic marketshare to Tesla over the next 10 years.
Tesla and F are within distance of having the same value. This market is silly, feels like a haircut is almost a necessity, no?
Got hammered on those NG options - guess winter no longer exists
Oh yea, Tesla... I mean, are they somehow not the most overvalued company ever? If the answer is no, then you either believe one of the two following things, right? GM/F/TM and all similar are undervalued or they will be ceding gigantic marketshare to Tesla over the next 10 years.
Tesla and F are within distance of having the same value. This market is silly, feels like a haircut is almost a necessity, no?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The market is forward looking, but I mean WTF
http://i.imgur.com/uVSwtew.png
Ford currently has 7.3% of the global auto market - pre-tax they earned over $10.4B and netted a little under $5B. On what ####### planet is Tesla worth the same? Is that a joke? I'd never short it bc clearly it has no rhyme or reason, but it is unbelievable just looking at numbers. In a perfect world for Tesla, 10 years from now, they have 1/3 of Ford's marketshare.
http://i.imgur.com/uVSwtew.png
Ford currently has 7.3% of the global auto market - pre-tax they earned over $10.4B and netted a little under $5B. On what ####### planet is Tesla worth the same? Is that a joke? I'd never short it bc clearly it has no rhyme or reason, but it is unbelievable just looking at numbers. In a perfect world for Tesla, 10 years from now, they have 1/3 of Ford's marketshare.
General Malaise
Footballguy
2/14/17 ECSIF currently sits $0.79549/16/16 ECSIF closed at .44
2/13/17 ECSIF currently sits at .675
I think that's +53.4%
Metal Pages moved their price for high-grade cobalt from $18 Bid/$19 Ask to $19 Bid/$20 Ask from Thursday to today.
IMO, I think eCobalt will be announcing a secondary offering/private placement that will be dilutive to share price. I'm just going to sit tight and add on any pullback. But if you've got a nice profit, no shame in taking it off and waiting for a re-entry at lower levels.
I think @bueno has an alternative definition of "never" and "happen"2/14/17 ECSIF currently sits $0.7954
Metal Pages moved their price for high-grade cobalt from $18 Bid/$19 Ask to $19 Bid/$20 Ask from Thursday to today.
IMO, I think eCobalt will be announcing a secondary offering/private placement that will be dilutive to share price. I'm just going to sit tight and add on any pullback. But if you've got a nice profit, no shame in taking it off and waiting for a re-entry at lower levels.
Looks like ECSIF hit .84 today.
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
FYI The all time record for trading days without a 1% correction is 90. Tomorrow will be day 88.
GoBirds
Footballguy
lardonastick
Footballguy
Yeah, 4.0%This market is ridiculous, just took a look at my 401k for the first time in a little while, up 4.1% on the year - assume just about everyone is in the same range give or take?
Got hammered on those NG options - guess winter no longer exists
Oh yea, Tesla... I mean, are they somehow not the most overvalued company ever? If the answer is no, then you either believe one of the two following things, right? GM/F/TM and all similar are undervalued or they will be ceding gigantic marketshare to Tesla over the next 10 years.
Tesla and F are within distance of having the same value. This market is silly, feels like a haircut is almost a necessity, no?
I'm getting nervous, like, waiting for the other shoe to drop. It just FEELS like we're gonna get hammered soon.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
You sure you're looking at VEMAX right? I own it too, but Schwab shows me YTD of 4.94%, which I certainly can't complain about for a 6 week periodYTD is 5.37% in the 401k, 3.988% on the IRA. Best individual performer there is VEMAX at 8.9%.
Gut says to wait two months or so and evaluate. Not sure if I'll be brave enough to go against momentum if the market is still screaming ahead then.
My feelings about a 401k are the same as they have always been; I enjoy looking at it, but I don't even factor it into net wealth or base any of my decisions off of it. I intend on riding the ups/downs on it without doing much beyond a simple rebalance here and there until my early-mid 40's. I've got 30 years on the thing, if I left it untouched and didn't add a dollar until I was 62, I'd be in great shape as is if it picks up an average of 6-7% a year.
Every piece of research indicates timing the markets is a losing game for long-term investing. I fully expect the market to take at least 2-3 30% haircuts in the next 30 years followed by recoveries, wouldn't be surprised to see one in the next 36 months TBH.
E
C
S
I
F
C
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F
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BeTheMatch
Footballguy
So after several years of screwing around (gambling) with part of my ROTH, I've been pulling back lately and finally sold off the last of my individual stocks this week. I enjoyed some early success (luck) and it probably distorted my view to where I was buying and selling more than I should've been. I took a few different losses that turned out to be bigger than it turned out I was comfortable with. Made most of it back in recent months but have just decided I really don't want to do it anymore. The risk of owning individual stocks and the ups and downs for seemingly no reason just isn't for me. The vast majority of my retirement and my wife's has been in a few different Vanguard funds. I'm simply going to add the rest of this "play money" now and stop screwing around. Just too exhausting for me, especially when I don't know anything about anything and just sit and stare at tickers all day. So for me, while I'm sure it will be better financially for me too, it's more about cutting the stress out of my life.
Good luck to you guys going forward. Who knows, maybe the impending Trump Crash will draw me back in. Hopefully not.
Good luck to you guys going forward. Who knows, maybe the impending Trump Crash will draw me back in. Hopefully not.
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