Stock Thread (19 Viewers)

[Bob Sacamano]

And given I can't buy a Beamish here thanks to the jackholes at Heineken, I'll enjoy a nice pint of guinness anytime, thank you. You're all welcome to your ####tastic Extra-Sour-Triple-Pale-as-Forrest-tastes-like-###-but-makes-me-feel-outdatedly-trendy ales. "Could I get mine with spoiled pickles chopped up in it? No, no, the limp one with the fuzz growing on it. Thanks, you're a peach." Horrible dreck.

And if these Gen Z attention whores keep me from having a delicious pint because they need a photo op with the pint of the month, I'm going to St James gate directly and burning the whole damn thing down.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

*tosses pennies on the floor*

 

[General Malaise]

And given I can't buy a Beamish here thanks to the jackholes at Heineken, I'll enjoy a nice pint of guinness anytime, thank you. You're all welcome to your ####tastic Extra-Sour-Triple-Pale-as-Forrest-tastes-like-###-but-makes-me-feel-outdatedly-trendy ales. "Could I get mine with spoiled pickles chopped up in it? No, no, the limp one with the fuzz growing on it. Thanks, you're a peach." Horrible dreck.

And if these Gen Z attention whores keep me from having a delicious pint because they need a photo op with the pint of the month, I'm going to St James gate directly and burning the whole damn thing down.

 

[Gjallarhorn]

I would walk up to your bookie, errrrrr, financial adviser, and tell him to put all your money on UNH and hammer that button until the machine ran out of paper.

 

[SFBayDuck]

I would walk up to your bookie, errrrrr, financial adviser, and tell him to put all your money on UNH and hammer that button until the machine ran out of paper.

Is that how you make trades? Say hello to 1987 from the lobby of EF Hutton for me.

But more importantly, what’s your thesis on UNH? Just oversold on the recent (horrible) events that likely doesn’t really negatively impact the company, or something else?

 

[General Malaise]

BTC and Gold on the hop today. Let's turn it around, boys.

 

[McBokonon]

I'm not sure what their prices are on Sour Mush Imperial Hazy IPA DorkleSplurgen is or whatever people in the PNW are drinking right now.

And given I can't buy a Beamish here thanks to the jackholes at Heineken, I'll enjoy a nice pint of guinness anytime, thank you. You're all welcome to your ####tastic Extra-Sour-Triple-Pale-as-Forrest-tastes-like-###-but-makes-me-feel-outdatedly-trendy ales. "Could I get mine with spoiled pickles chopped up in it? No, no, the limp one with the fuzz growing on it. Thanks, you're a peach." Horrible dreck.

 

[guru_007]

I would walk up to your bookie, errrrrr, financial adviser, and tell him to put all your money on UNH and hammer that button until the machine ran out of paper.

UNH has traded in a very nice range for about the past 3 years from 450 - 600. I send out a quarterly newsletter to friends and family and have recommended buying at 450 level and selling at 550 level during this time and we have done well (yes, I really do this).

Looking at broader issues here, two things that everyone should consider other than the debt/deficit, which I've harped on ad nauseum for years....

1-Potential government shut down looking. The can keeps getting kicked on this, but it appears the new administration may play a bit more hardball than in the past. We shall see, but being that they have the new government efficiency department, maybe this is a thing (this is also a reason I've passed on trading BA as at these levels it seems too attractive to pass up, but as about half their business and probably 2/3's of their profit comes from the good ole US defense department....)

2-Potential dock workers strike. This thing was paused until 1/15/25 and I've seen no progress of note on this one. It's the proverbial immovable force vs unstoppable object coming down. This automation issue is not going to be solved, and depending on how vigilant each side gets, this may drag on. This will have major economic ripples if so and will be felt in the stock market for sure.

Both of these have given me pause on buying any dips. I've done my tax loss harvesting for the year, and am just building up cash right now.

 

[steelerfan1]

Humana crushed today on heavy volume. I'll do some research tonight and may buy some tomorrow.

Their Beirut office isn't turning in good numbers these days. Tehran office is sending out profit warnings.

HUM down 12% on Tuesday. Down 16% in premarket today. Yikes. Watching and waiting....

now down 21% premarket. ouch.

Bought 100 shares at $230 then immediately sold a November $260 call for $800 to lower the cost basis a bit more.

Looking over the carnage from today, I found HUM which somehow gained 2% but nonetheless is trading around $240, back down near the depths of the fall. I’ve been out of it since it got called away and not looking to buy back in, but thought I’d mention it here as I know some were looking at it earlier.

I’m kind of glad I got out a tad after you did with this. Not sure I want back in the health insurance business right now.

 

[pecorino]

"Lamb Weston reported a $71 million charge to write off the excess supply, with the processor noting inflation-wary consumers are dining out less."

I'm sure there's data to support that assertion, but anecdotally, it sure doesn't feel like restaurants are less busy.

A note for those of you trading / investing in LW. The just named a new CEO and tempered their outlook for 2025. It is trading down 19% today, around $63.50 per share.

 

[Nugget]

Bought back into TMF this morning because I’m an addict. Looking for a quick 10% before the end of the year.

 

[urbanhack]

Any chance the spike in Guinness popularity drives some DEO result improvement?

You're the only person I've witnessed ordering one of those in years. Popularity where? That stuff is bad tasting chewing gum.

It still holds up my friend. I don't drink them very often, but if l'm left to choose from a crappy tap list this is my go to.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

And given I can't buy a Beamish here thanks to the jackholes at Heineken, I'll enjoy a nice pint of guinness anytime, thank you. You're all welcome to your ####tastic Extra-Sour-Triple-Pale-as-Forrest-tastes-like-###-but-makes-me-feel-outdatedly-trendy ales. "Could I get mine with spoiled pickles chopped up in it? No, no, the limp one with the fuzz growing on it. Thanks, you're a peach." Horrible dreck.

And if these Gen Z attention whores keep me from having a delicious pint because they need a photo op with the pint of the month, I'm going to St James gate directly and burning the whole damn thing down.

This is the kind of alpha I come here for. Well said. I'm going to forward this to my brother before my next visit because he always has nothing but those spoiled pickle beers in the fridge.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

"Lamb Weston reported a $71 million charge to write off the excess supply, with the processor noting inflation-wary consumers are dining out less."

I'm sure there's data to support that assertion, but anecdotally, it sure doesn't feel like restaurants are less busy.

A note for those of you trading / investing in LW. The just named a new CEO and tempered their outlook for 2025. It is trading down 19% today, around $63.50 per share.

Wow that chart. Who knew that french fries were more volatile than crypto nowadays.

 

[Desert_Power]

"Lamb Weston reported a $71 million charge to write off the excess supply, with the processor noting inflation-wary consumers are dining out less."

I'm sure there's data to support that assertion, but anecdotally, it sure doesn't feel like restaurants are less busy.

A note for those of you trading / investing in LW. The just named a new CEO and tempered their outlook for 2025. It is trading down 19% today, around $63.50 per share.

Wow that chart. Who knew that french fries were more volatile than crypto nowadays.

We need a Freedom Fries ****coin.

 

[jamny]

And given I can't buy a Beamish here thanks to the jackholes at Heineken, I'll enjoy a nice pint of guinness anytime, thank you. You're all welcome to your ####tastic Extra-Sour-Triple-Pale-as-Forrest-tastes-like-###-but-makes-me-feel-outdatedly-trendy ales. "Could I get mine with spoiled pickles chopped up in it? No, no, the limp one with the fuzz growing on it. Thanks, you're a peach." Horrible dreck.

And if these Gen Z attention whores keep me from having a delicious pint because they need a photo op with the pint of the month, I'm going to St James gate directly and burning the whole damn thing down.

I wish I could find a Beamish somewhere! Easily the best beer I had while in Ireland.

 

[jamny]

Our FA dumped DEO last week. Broke even from a July buy.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

"Lamb Weston reported a $71 million charge to write off the excess supply, with the processor noting inflation-wary consumers are dining out less."

I'm sure there's data to support that assertion, but anecdotally, it sure doesn't feel like restaurants are less busy.

A note for those of you trading / investing in LW. The just named a new CEO and tempered their outlook for 2025. It is trading down 19% today, around $63.50 per share.

Wow that chart. Who knew that french fries were more volatile than crypto nowadays.

Guinness and poh-tay-toes. Irish conspiracies imo

 

[Bob Sacamano]

And given I can't buy a Beamish here thanks to the jackholes at Heineken, I'll enjoy a nice pint of guinness anytime, thank you. You're all welcome to your ####tastic Extra-Sour-Triple-Pale-as-Forrest-tastes-like-###-but-makes-me-feel-outdatedly-trendy ales. "Could I get mine with spoiled pickles chopped up in it? No, no, the limp one with the fuzz growing on it. Thanks, you're a peach." Horrible dreck.

And if these Gen Z attention whores keep me from having a delicious pint because they need a photo op with the pint of the month, I'm going to St James gate directly and burning the whole damn thing down.

I wish I could find a Beamish somewhere! Easily the best beer I had while in Ireland.

Heineken bought them and then quit exporting it

 

[jamny]

And given I can't buy a Beamish here thanks to the jackholes at Heineken, I'll enjoy a nice pint of guinness anytime, thank you. You're all welcome to your ####tastic Extra-Sour-Triple-Pale-as-Forrest-tastes-like-###-but-makes-me-feel-outdatedly-trendy ales. "Could I get mine with spoiled pickles chopped up in it? No, no, the limp one with the fuzz growing on it. Thanks, you're a peach." Horrible dreck.

And if these Gen Z attention whores keep me from having a delicious pint because they need a photo op with the pint of the month, I'm going to St James gate directly and burning the whole damn thing down.

I wish I could find a Beamish somewhere! Easily the best beer I had while in Ireland.

Heineken bought them and then quit exporting it

didn't know that...wtf

 

[Bossman]

And given I can't buy a Beamish here thanks to the jackholes at Heineken, I'll enjoy a nice pint of guinness anytime, thank you. You're all welcome to your ####tastic Extra-Sour-Triple-Pale-as-Forrest-tastes-like-###-but-makes-me-feel-outdatedly-trendy ales. "Could I get mine with spoiled pickles chopped up in it? No, no, the limp one with the fuzz growing on it. Thanks, you're a peach." Horrible dreck.

And if these Gen Z attention whores keep me from having a delicious pint because they need a photo op with the pint of the month, I'm going to St James gate directly and burning the whole damn thing down.

Just purchased my first 4 pk of Guinness Foreign Extra Stout.
Says 7.5% abv which has me excited to give it a go.
Guinness Foreign

... and Stonks go UP!

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Man, I was just thinking the last couple of days that we had to be nearing peak "greed", but I'm surprised this Fed reaction isn't more priced in. The treasury rates have been signaling that rates will stay higher for longer.

Me, too. I assumed there would be end-of-year selling for tax harvesting purposes (which could still happen) and maybe more selling early in 2025 to lock in gains but not pay taxes until the next calendar year.

What could people possibly be loss harvesting after this year?

CVS

ETA: Late Larry with this joke apparently

 

[General Malaise]

Any chance the spike in Guinness popularity drives some DEO result improvement?

You're the only person I've witnessed ordering one of those in years. Popularity where? That stuff is bad tasting chewing gum.

It still holds up my friend. I don't drink them very often, but if l'm left to choose from a crappy tap list this is my go to.

Oh, I've had them. Just tastes bland and too thick. Not horrible but I can live the balance of my life never having another.

 

[General Malaise]

Glad my cost basis for VTTX is on the low $200s. Jesus.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

And given I can't buy a Beamish here thanks to the jackholes at Heineken, I'll enjoy a nice pint of guinness anytime, thank you. You're all welcome to your ####tastic Extra-Sour-Triple-Pale-as-Forrest-tastes-like-###-but-makes-me-feel-outdatedly-trendy ales. "Could I get mine with spoiled pickles chopped up in it? No, no, the limp one with the fuzz growing on it. Thanks, you're a peach." Horrible dreck.

And if these Gen Z attention whores keep me from having a delicious pint because they need a photo op with the pint of the month, I'm going to St James gate directly and burning the whole damn thing down.

Just purchased my first 4 pk of Guinness Foreign Extra Stout.
Says 7.5% abv which has me excited to give it a go.
Guinness Foreign

... and Stonks go UP!

Prob won't be able to get it after Jan. :(

 

[ghostguy123]

Todem had mentioned DOW and LYB a week or two ago as a buy, and down a few more % since then.
Good time to buy a chunk? I know nothing of these companies.

 

[Sand]

I bought a chunk of LYB. P/E is 11 with a 7% dividend. Seems like a pretty good bet. If P/E drops below 10 I'll probably trickle in a bit more.

 

[pecorino]

NKE turning a corner with this call today? Or, maybe not. Up 9% after hours then the pop went poof.

 

[pecorino]

Oof, plus NVO hammered. Looks like a widespread down day. Where's Santa?

 

[McBokonon]

Sold LDOS last week to take profits and raise cash. Defense is too hard until everyone figures out DOGE won’t really do anything and I’ll get back in, it’s a great company. Been documenting my APP trims here, as well. Lots of dry powder looking to add to my MELI, GOOGL, AMZN, etc. positions at some point.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

What are you waiting to see on MELI? On top of my core position, I've added and sold MELI a number of times at this point. Want to do so again at this level, but given it's meant to be a short-term trade rather than adding to the long-term, the currency/macro headwinds are giving me pause. Could be more s-t pain to come. Much less convicted on the s-t atm. Would still buy as a l-t hold.

 

[General Malaise]

Oof, plus NVO hammered. Looks like a widespread down day. Where's Santa?

Santa told you to hit F5 on your keyboard....

 

[pecorino]

Oof, plus NVO hammered. Looks like a widespread down day. Where's Santa?

Santa told you to hit F5 on your keyboard....

Yes, and we’re up 1.7% on SPY. It’s all perfectly normal.

 

[Sand]

Oof, plus NVO hammered. Looks like a widespread down day. Where's Santa?

Santa told you to hit F5 on your keyboard....

Yes, and we’re up 1.7% on SPY. It’s all perfectly normal.

All is well!

 

[pecorino]

Oof, plus NVO hammered. Looks like a widespread down day. Where's Santa?

Santa told you to hit F5 on your keyboard....

Yes, and we’re up 1.7% on SPY. It’s all perfectly normal.

All is well!

Exactly. Just trimmed a few positions. It’ll be a more relaxed weekend sleeping on a bed of cash.

 

[Sand]

Man, this is quite the epic streak for long bonds. Bombs away!

 

[fruity pebbles]

Man, this is quite the epic streak for long bonds. Bombs away!

Everyone was just assuming bond yields would drop. Crowded side of the trade is always suspect.

 

[Desert_Power]

Man, this is quite the epic streak for long bonds. Bombs away!

Everyone was just assuming bond yields would drop. Crowded side of the trade is always suspect.

Early days. I doubt the real economy can suffer these rates for long. The amount of speculation and grifting out there juicing returns means the Fed will be biased towards higher rates.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Man, this is quite the epic streak for long bonds. Bombs away!

Everyone was just assuming bond yields would drop. Crowded side of the trade is always suspect.

I started buying them in May, just off the low, and we’re right about there again now. This is only in qualified retirement accounts, and I built up to the percentage I want for now at 7 years from 59 1/2. I guess I could end up rebalancing into more if they keep going down or if equities take off, and I’m rebalancing into them in my 401K with most contributions. But otherwise I’ll be riding it out for several years. Their purpose isn’t current income, it’s as a portion of my portfolio uncorrelated to the equities that make up most of my holdings so I’m good with it. Have to think over a decade or two time frame, this year will have been buying low……but who knows?

 

[SFBayDuck]

The choice I’m questioning much more than long bonds is shifting into small cap value this year with a decent percentage of my retirement accounts. Historical data says it should pay off over long enough time frames, and I consider these 40 year time frame accounts. But is it possible the premium has permanently disappeared?
Of course I’ve seen multiple articles and podcasts recently saying value is dead, so now very well might be the time to lean in! And I’m still tilted more toward LCG than SCV by a good bit.

 

[fruity pebbles]

The choice I’m questioning much more than long bonds is shifting into small cap value this year with a decent percentage of my retirement accounts. Historical data says it should pay off over long enough time frames, and I consider these 40 year time frame accounts. But is it possible the premium has permanently disappeared?
Of course I’ve seen multiple articles and podcasts recently saying value is dead, so now very well might be the time to lean in! And I’m still tilted more toward LCG than SCV by a good bit.

That’s what I’m doing. I like to go where nobody else wants to. Shifting from tech to small value and high dividend like SCHD.

 

[SFBayDuck]

The choice I’m questioning much more than long bonds is shifting into small cap value this year with a decent percentage of my retirement accounts. Historical data says it should pay off over long enough time frames, and I consider these 40 year time frame accounts. But is it possible the premium has permanently disappeared?
Of course I’ve seen multiple articles and podcasts recently saying value is dead, so now very well might be the time to lean in! And I’m still tilted more toward LCG than SCV by a good bit.

That’s what I’m doing. I like to go where nobody else wants to. Shifting from tech to small value and high dividend like SCHD.

Interesting chart.

 

[fruity pebbles]

The choice I’m questioning much more than long bonds is shifting into small cap value this year with a decent percentage of my retirement accounts. Historical data says it should pay off over long enough time frames, and I consider these 40 year time frame accounts. But is it possible the premium has permanently disappeared?
Of course I’ve seen multiple articles and podcasts recently saying value is dead, so now very well might be the time to lean in! And I’m still tilted more toward LCG than SCV by a good bit.

That’s what I’m doing. I like to go where nobody else wants to. Shifting from tech to small value and high dividend like SCHD.

Interesting chart.

Timing is always tough. It could remain that way for awhile longer. I do think small value will have its time in the sun but who really knows when. I will say I don’t like being overweight megacap tech here, that’s where everyone is.

 

[SFBayDuck]

The choice I’m questioning much more than long bonds is shifting into small cap value this year with a decent percentage of my retirement accounts. Historical data says it should pay off over long enough time frames, and I consider these 40 year time frame accounts. But is it possible the premium has permanently disappeared?
Of course I’ve seen multiple articles and podcasts recently saying value is dead, so now very well might be the time to lean in! And I’m still tilted more toward LCG than SCV by a good bit.

That’s what I’m doing. I like to go where nobody else wants to. Shifting from tech to small value and high dividend like SCHD.

Interesting chart.

Timing is always tough. It could remain that way for awhile longer. I do think small value will have its time in the sun but who really knows when. I will say I don’t like being overweight megacap tech here, that’s where everyone is.

Yeah I’ve yet to meet anyone who can predict the future, so I’ll just go with what’s happened in the past. The challenge is that we really have a small data set, we’re not talking 1000 years of markets to analyze. But it still seems better than prognosticating about what might happen next or, even worse, chasing recent winners.

 

[Todem]

The choice I’m questioning much more than long bonds is shifting into small cap value this year with a decent percentage of my retirement accounts. Historical data says it should pay off over long enough time frames, and I consider these 40 year time frame accounts. But is it possible the premium has permanently disappeared?
Of course I’ve seen multiple articles and podcasts recently saying value is dead, so now very well might be the time to lean in! And I’m still tilted more toward LCG than SCV by a good bit.

That’s what I’m doing. I like to go where nobody else wants to. Shifting from tech to small value and high dividend like SCHD.

Interesting chart.

Timing is always tough. It could remain that way for awhile longer. I do think small value will have its time in the sun but who really knows when. I will say I don’t like being overweight megacap tech here, that’s where everyone is.

Yeah I’ve yet to meet anyone who can predict the future, so I’ll just go with what’s happened in the past. The challenge is that we really have a small data set, we’re not talking 1000 years of markets to analyze. But it still seems better than prognosticating about what might happen next or, even worse, chasing recent winners.

Asset allocation. Just be diversified for the long haul and average 8-9% a year and keep plugging away saving into that diversified portfolio.

It’s proven time and time again to be the best cocktail for long term success.

 

[GoBirds]

The choice I’m questioning much more than long bonds is shifting into small cap value this year with a decent percentage of my retirement accounts. Historical data says it should pay off over long enough time frames, and I consider these 40 year time frame accounts. But is it possible the premium has permanently disappeared?
Of course I’ve seen multiple articles and podcasts recently saying value is dead, so now very well might be the time to lean in! And I’m still tilted more toward LCG than SCV by a good bit.

That’s what I’m doing. I like to go where nobody else wants to. Shifting from tech to small value and high dividend like SCHD.

Interesting chart.

Timing is always tough. It could remain that way for awhile longer. I do think small value will have its time in the sun but who really knows when. I will say I don’t like being overweight megacap tech here, that’s where everyone is.

Yeah I’ve yet to meet anyone who can predict the future, so I’ll just go with what’s happened in the past. The challenge is that we really have a small data set, we’re not talking 1000 years of markets to analyze. But it still seems better than prognosticating about what might happen next or, even worse, chasing recent winners.

Asset allocation. Just be diversified for the long haul and average 8-9% a year and keep plugging away saving into that diversified portfolio.

It’s proven time and time again to be the best cocktail for long term success.

I've been going with VTI as my low cost index fund option. As it is tech heavy at 30% and I hold a lot of AMZN/APPL/GOOG separately I've been adding VTV as well. VTI worry you guys at all or stay on the rocket ship?

 

[Todem]

The choice I’m questioning much more than long bonds is shifting into small cap value this year with a decent percentage of my retirement accounts. Historical data says it should pay off over long enough time frames, and I consider these 40 year time frame accounts. But is it possible the premium has permanently disappeared?
Of course I’ve seen multiple articles and podcasts recently saying value is dead, so now very well might be the time to lean in! And I’m still tilted more toward LCG than SCV by a good bit.

That’s what I’m doing. I like to go where nobody else wants to. Shifting from tech to small value and high dividend like SCHD.

Interesting chart.

Timing is always tough. It could remain that way for awhile longer. I do think small value will have its time in the sun but who really knows when. I will say I don’t like being overweight megacap tech here, that’s where everyone is.

Yeah I’ve yet to meet anyone who can predict the future, so I’ll just go with what’s happened in the past. The challenge is that we really have a small data set, we’re not talking 1000 years of markets to analyze. But it still seems better than prognosticating about what might happen next or, even worse, chasing recent winners.

Asset allocation. Just be diversified for the long haul and average 8-9% a year and keep plugging away saving into that diversified portfolio.

It’s proven time and time again to be the best cocktail for long term success.

I've been going with VTI as my low cost index fund option. As it is tech heavy at 30% and I hold a lot of AMZN/APPL/GOOG separately I've been adding VTV as well. VTI worry you guys at all or stay on the rocket ship?

Since it's not a cap weighted index (and that's ok BTW) you will run into issues like that with some overlap. I would not be concerned if you have a strong stomach and have a long term outlook. Stick with the plan.

 

[Runkle]

Rebalancing time coming up. Is there a list of stocks and etfs we like in this thread? I'm thinking a buy-and-hold on a 5-10 year timeframe.

Separately but related, for my HSA, anything that has a 10-20 year timeframe? (I still haven't figured out if I'm allowed to withdraw from an HSA to pay the taxes on the capital gains, thanks California! So I don't want to have to ever sell and have a profit to be taxed if I have to pay those taxes out of pocket rather than from the stock sale itself until I hit the age where I'm out of the penalty range)

 

[Capella]

No Santa this year?

 

[Todem]

No Santa this year?

Apparently not…..still….what a great year.

A Happy and Healthy New Year to everyone.