St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
DEFINITELY NOT REALLY
If I were you @Magic_Man I would buy $2000 worth of VOO today, $2000 on 5/5 and $2000 on 6/5.
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Stock Thread (34 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
If I were you @Magic_Man I would buy $2000 worth of VOO today, $2000 on 5/5 and $2000 on 6/5.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I think Bossman misunderstood. It's Borders patrol. He's sending the National Guard out to evaluate which old Borders locations can be reopened to compete with Amazon.
proteus126
Footballguy
Bought some TSLA on Monday at about $248
Bossman
Footballguy
Trump threatens to slap $100 billion in additional tariffs on China ... all aboard the TVIX train!
Trump has after hours trading of TVIX jumping from $9.20 to over $10.20 ... looks like it's about to go thru the roof tomorrow.
The only question will be ... sell at $14 or hold out for $15? ... MORE? What say you SLB, master of all that is TVIX?
... and on the brighter side, looks like I'm gonna finally get some bargains on msft, aapl, amzn, etc.
I'm naming tomorrow Flash Crash Black Friday!
(ps; @Magic_Man ... waiting one day to invest is gonna gain you about 5% more shares of whatever you didn't buy today)
Sand
Footballguy
K. So let's say you have an FFA standard sized taxable account. You have it fairly well diversified, so it has issued that counter balance each other. If something goes down you get the opportunity to sell it, buy something close (but doesn't break the wash rule sale) and keep the exposure while retaining the tax loss. This isn't deliberately losing money, it's just working the tax laws as they are laid out to capture credits and keeping market exposure.Bossman said:
I generally only do this with ETFs as its much harder to do with stocks individually.
You're allowed to deduct 3k stock losses every year against regular income. It's a valuable tool to lower taxable income, and should be exploited if you can. As long as you do it in a strategic manner you're not giving up gains in one place to save it in another.
These all carry over year to year, so if we have another 2008 a typical investor may be set for years.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Sorry SLB, although your idea is right, the market might not buy this theory (I’m rooting for you though). They’re not buying this like they didn’t buy the housing market spilling over into the real economy in 2007.
I’m an outlier, and everyone thinks this is silly (certainly the market), but I think a trade war is coming. China is 3 steps ahead - they’ll crush Trump’s base, they’ll hurt us bad, they’ll crash our markets, & they’ll ride Trump out until 2020.
He thinks this is typical business; “when you owe them $1MM, they own you, when you owe them $100MM, you own them.” I have no real basis on knowing if this is true, but somehow I doubt that works in international politics.
Their administration >>>>> our administration - they’ll play us like a violin.
I’ve left my 401k alone, and I’m sure it will take a trip to the slaughterhouse in the next 12-24 months, but that’s noise to me at 34. I did reduce my US and Chinese exposure though.
I have however basically shifted all of my brokerage accounts to cash, I sold into strength over the last few days. I’m sure I’ll miss some nice gains, but I see too many obstacles arising before we get clipped:
- corporate profits are going to kill it this year, what happens next year? Do we continue at that same trajectory, I find it doubtful.
- easy money Fed days are gone
- rates are supposed to go up (although, I am starting to question if a flight to safety will keep them in check)
- debt is through the roof
- labor market is getting super tight, inflation is lurking somewhere
- the Fed has no ammo to fight off shocks right now
- oh yea, possibly a trade war
The rug pull is coming, it’ll prob take us a little while to get there, but the DJIA will revisit the levels they were at when Trump took office within the next 24-36 months, I’d think sooner, but I’m not chasing another 10-15%, I’ll wait for the next cycle.
I’d like to park myself in gold, but hard to be confident in that when the odds favor rising rates, so I’ll prob just sit tight in cash. Also, I found this odd, but Silver futures short positions are at an all-time low, still not sure what to make of that.
Dr Doom signing off
I’m an outlier, and everyone thinks this is silly (certainly the market), but I think a trade war is coming. China is 3 steps ahead - they’ll crush Trump’s base, they’ll hurt us bad, they’ll crash our markets, & they’ll ride Trump out until 2020.
He thinks this is typical business; “when you owe them $1MM, they own you, when you owe them $100MM, you own them.” I have no real basis on knowing if this is true, but somehow I doubt that works in international politics.
Their administration >>>>> our administration - they’ll play us like a violin.
I’ve left my 401k alone, and I’m sure it will take a trip to the slaughterhouse in the next 12-24 months, but that’s noise to me at 34. I did reduce my US and Chinese exposure though.
I have however basically shifted all of my brokerage accounts to cash, I sold into strength over the last few days. I’m sure I’ll miss some nice gains, but I see too many obstacles arising before we get clipped:
- corporate profits are going to kill it this year, what happens next year? Do we continue at that same trajectory, I find it doubtful.
- easy money Fed days are gone
- rates are supposed to go up (although, I am starting to question if a flight to safety will keep them in check)
- debt is through the roof
- labor market is getting super tight, inflation is lurking somewhere
- the Fed has no ammo to fight off shocks right now
- oh yea, possibly a trade war
The rug pull is coming, it’ll prob take us a little while to get there, but the DJIA will revisit the levels they were at when Trump took office within the next 24-36 months, I’d think sooner, but I’m not chasing another 10-15%, I’ll wait for the next cycle.
I’d like to park myself in gold, but hard to be confident in that when the odds favor rising rates, so I’ll prob just sit tight in cash. Also, I found this odd, but Silver futures short positions are at an all-time low, still not sure what to make of that.
Dr Doom signing off
Sand
Footballguy
We're still trying to fight off significant deflationary forces. I see it as a fair fight right now. We're a long way off from an inflation spike, unless China unloads all of its treasuries.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Fair enough, but I’ve got a laundry list of concerns right now, I think something in there causes the next crash. I’m sure 99% of the world would disagree with my defensive stance right now, but I’m only concerned about preservation for the next few years. I won’t be considering growth until this cycle is officially in the books.
Curious, what would you define as significant?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Interesting numbers on the jobs report, huge miss with 103k vs 193k expected - market prob liked that. Wage growth came in at .3% vs .2% expected, so they don’t like that.
Mixed bag on this report.
Mixed bag on this report.
Bossman
Footballguy
One of these days he will be right.
Just seems that this economy is so strong, none of these happenings will deter investors.
.
Might be 7 years from now, but it will happen ( ... and I've got some TVIX when it does).
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Didn't say now, in fact, I opened my post saying they were going to buy it right back up (futures were down 450 points overnight), which they did
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
My real point on trade is Trump has forgotten about the market this year, looks like his goals in 2018 are delivering for his base. If he stays the course with his protectionist measures (and his actions don't refute that), then there sure as #### is going to be pain - his base isn't Wall Street.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/04/06/trump-warns-u-s-investors-of-a-little-pain-in-trade-stand-off
If this escalates and we end up banning some Chinese investments, slapping tariffs down, they slow down their treasury purchases, they slap tariffs down - it is an economic crisis. My thoughts are we're underestimating China and underestimating the real risks here; they aren't scared of a conflict at all, and there is no way they're going to meet all of Trump's demands. Furthermore, the Fed isn't positioned for an economic crisis right now - I just see the enormous risks that aren't worth stepping in front of until this is either resolved or the market gets crushed. We import over a half trillion dollars worth of #### from China annually. I wouldn't risk shorting a monster bull market, but I will sit around and continue to build a mountain of cash that I'll wait to deploy.
Analysts are all just excited for earnings to hit, I think that boost will be short-lived unless we get some resolutions here. I thought about it over the night and decided I'm going to sit 30% in GLD (which I just bought) and 70% in cash, instead of all cash.
Anyways, Marc Faber signing off again.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/04/06/trump-warns-u-s-investors-of-a-little-pain-in-trade-stand-off
If this escalates and we end up banning some Chinese investments, slapping tariffs down, they slow down their treasury purchases, they slap tariffs down - it is an economic crisis. My thoughts are we're underestimating China and underestimating the real risks here; they aren't scared of a conflict at all, and there is no way they're going to meet all of Trump's demands. Furthermore, the Fed isn't positioned for an economic crisis right now - I just see the enormous risks that aren't worth stepping in front of until this is either resolved or the market gets crushed. We import over a half trillion dollars worth of #### from China annually. I wouldn't risk shorting a monster bull market, but I will sit around and continue to build a mountain of cash that I'll wait to deploy.
Analysts are all just excited for earnings to hit, I think that boost will be short-lived unless we get some resolutions here. I thought about it over the night and decided I'm going to sit 30% in GLD (which I just bought) and 70% in cash, instead of all cash.
Anyways, Marc Faber signing off again.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Was it sand who was all over the REITs? Probably aligns well with whatever Trump decides to do. You know he's not going to take actions that crush real estate.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
If you think china will kick our butts you should be all over gold. A weaker dollar is great for gold and the chinese love gold.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I went 30% as a hedge with cash. This is going to take a while to play out, so I'm just sitting tight right now. Preservation and being prepared for the aftermath are my main goals.
Worst case, I'm wrong and I'll have some cash and gold sitting around.
Yes, I'm 34, this looks out for at least 25 years to me, so outside of a zombie apocalypse, nothing really going to get me to change course there - shifted a little more into other markets outside of the US/China though, but whatever, it is what it is.
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I like REITs as well, but they are interest rate sensitive- if rates go up, they will likely be hit pretty hard.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Forgive my ignorance, but I don't "get" that. Why is that? Do REITs generally carry a heavy variable rate debt load? Is the expectation that people are only invested in them seeking yield, so they can replace that yield with lower risk? So as rates rise, there's flight from them?
That's a part of it, but REITs usually have much more fixed rate debt than variable so it's mostly the latter- as the risk free rate rises, the risk premium received from dividends decreases.
Rate increases aren't necessarily bad for REITs, it depends on the reason for them. If rates are going higher because the economy is doing really well it can actually be a good thing. In the current situation, I don't think rates are going higher because we're experiencing any great economic boom.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Interestingly, the bond market doesn't (and hasn't really) seemed phased - currency market on the other hand, Yen is up over 5% YTD. When you consider they've left their soft policies in place while we hike, I find that interesting and worth noting.
Bossman
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Sold a minute too early but out at $10.53 for a profit of $570.00St. Louis Bob said:
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Strange days indeed.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Bossman
Footballguy
I was a little too greedy, had a sell order in a $11.20 and missed selling by $.11 when it peaked at $11.09.
So now I hold thru the weekend and see if China responds to Trump. Safe bet that should get TVIX moving again.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I had that happen yesterday as I had an order in for 500 more at $9.10 but I think $9.14 was as low as it got. Have an order in now for the day at $9.90.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Interesting take. I asked if this next downturn would be worse than the great recession.
"Yes. We have substituted PHDs for historical monetary prudence. 2000-2002 was supposed to be the cleansing decline which wiped out malinvestment. Instead Greenspan lowered rates to 1% and kept them low for years. A recession occurred but was not allowed to do its work. This allowed the housing bubble to occur in concurrence with subprime. Debt was created at a 15% annual growth rate going into 2008. The Great Recession was supposed to cleanse the system of malinvestment but instead Debt was created at a 20% annual rate worldwide this time and governments and central banks absorbed much of the bad debt. Bernanke loaded up the Fed with debt and pressured other central banks to do the same, Citizens fail to understand how radical the monetary "fixes" were and how they pushed governments, companies, and individuals to massively expand low-rate debt. Now banks around the world are filled with low rate loans to marginal borrowers and central banks are losing control of interest rates as investors in corporate, government, and junk bonds are demanding higher rates before they buy the next auction. Long rates are moving higher regardless of what the central banks can do with short rates. Rising rates will produce the 3 year debt crunch and central banks will either completely lose credibility and be taken over by governments or hyperinflate to crash their currencies and force their citizens to swallow double, tripled, etc prices for the things that they buy. A return to just the historical 5% 10 year government bond rate will mean 1.1 trillion in annual interest on 22 trillion government debt. This debt load will be growing faster as pensions and Medicare turn to negative funding and as rates rise. Politicians are accustomed to low rates and have lost control of spending.
I hope that the aftermath will be the abolition of central banks but I know this is a vain hope. I do not even hope that citizens will recognize the folly of trusting socialist academics and radicalized politicians with their childrens' futures. "
"Yes. We have substituted PHDs for historical monetary prudence. 2000-2002 was supposed to be the cleansing decline which wiped out malinvestment. Instead Greenspan lowered rates to 1% and kept them low for years. A recession occurred but was not allowed to do its work. This allowed the housing bubble to occur in concurrence with subprime. Debt was created at a 15% annual growth rate going into 2008. The Great Recession was supposed to cleanse the system of malinvestment but instead Debt was created at a 20% annual rate worldwide this time and governments and central banks absorbed much of the bad debt. Bernanke loaded up the Fed with debt and pressured other central banks to do the same, Citizens fail to understand how radical the monetary "fixes" were and how they pushed governments, companies, and individuals to massively expand low-rate debt. Now banks around the world are filled with low rate loans to marginal borrowers and central banks are losing control of interest rates as investors in corporate, government, and junk bonds are demanding higher rates before they buy the next auction. Long rates are moving higher regardless of what the central banks can do with short rates. Rising rates will produce the 3 year debt crunch and central banks will either completely lose credibility and be taken over by governments or hyperinflate to crash their currencies and force their citizens to swallow double, tripled, etc prices for the things that they buy. A return to just the historical 5% 10 year government bond rate will mean 1.1 trillion in annual interest on 22 trillion government debt. This debt load will be growing faster as pensions and Medicare turn to negative funding and as rates rise. Politicians are accustomed to low rates and have lost control of spending.
I hope that the aftermath will be the abolition of central banks but I know this is a vain hope. I do not even hope that citizens will recognize the folly of trusting socialist academics and radicalized politicians with their childrens' futures. "
Sand
Footballguy
They should've used MBAs. At least then when the system crashes we would have had nice cubicles to live in instead of boxes.
Sputnikv8
Footballguy
So all this buy/sell, what do you have to do for the washout rule mentioned earlier?
Bossman
Footballguy
I don't believe any of these losses here can be claimed .. so the trick would be; don't lose.
(How this noob understands it anyway)
While were discussing TVIX trading, .... is $7 a trade fair? Is there someone else that I should be utilizing instead of Vanguard for this type of trading?
pack100
Footballguy
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I’m thinking about dipping my toe into options by selling covered calls with some of my retirement money. I may use the 100 shares of ICPT that I have as the premiums seem good and I wouldn’t mind selling it anyway. But I’m looking for suggestions for other stalwart retirement stocks like MCD or DIS, for example, that would be good buys with the intent to generate income through selling covered calls. Thanks for any and all advice.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I like selling covered calls for about 10% out of the money around 6 months out. You usually can get a decent premium where if the stock does run up and get called away you make around 12-13% in 6 months. The bonus is you continue to collect the dividend.
RUSF18
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I bought 10,000 shares of BLRX because I was hoping Novartis would be acquiring them. They own like 12% of it already. Wish I would have known about this one.
Brony
Footballguy
If I knew this was going to happen, I would have invested more! A friend of mine started working there about a year ago and for ####'s and giggles threw some racks at it.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
2-10 year curve at its flattest since 2007 - not far from an inversion. Some articles out there, but basically every recession is preceded by an inverted curve (for those unaware). Simply put, when the short and long invert, the probability of a recession goes through the roof. Not there yet, but we're as close as we've been in 10 years.
Worth noting and keeping on the radar.
Although boring, my stress levels are down 10x since moving my personal brokerage accounts into gold & cash (The S&P has traveled almost 5% and gone nowhere in that time lol). No micromanaging anything and just paying attention to the macro. With the intense irresponsible spending out of DC, I'm debating going larger than 30/70 gold/cash. I'm pretty comfortable riding the rest of this cycle with a healthy amount of gold.
Worth noting and keeping on the radar.
Although boring, my stress levels are down 10x since moving my personal brokerage accounts into gold & cash (The S&P has traveled almost 5% and gone nowhere in that time lol). No micromanaging anything and just paying attention to the macro. With the intense irresponsible spending out of DC, I'm debating going larger than 30/70 gold/cash. I'm pretty comfortable riding the rest of this cycle with a healthy amount of gold.
Important to note that an inverted curve typically leads the recession by 12-18 months. It does not happen immediately
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I've read that it is usually within 5 quarters, so yea, that makes sense.
Nonetheless, terrible omen if it does invert.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Had a TVIX buy in at $9.60, kept bouncing off $9.80 so upped it to $9.80. Then it went over $10.00. Damn it. Have an order in for $9.90 but the way this is acting on an up day makes me want to up my offer.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Had a TVIX buy in at $9.60, kept bouncing off $9.80 so upped it to $9.80. Then it went over $10.00. Damn it. Have an order in for $9.90 but the way this is acting on an up day makes me want to up my offer.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
I'm terrible at this.
Bought TVIX last week ... 500 @ $9.51. Then another 500 @ $9.81.
Missed selling Friday when it went over $11.00.
... futures were up this morning and logic said TVIX was dropping fast so I sold 500 at opening today for $10.32 ....dropped as anticipated ... and now it's trading after hours for $10.70!
Justified selling the 500 today as if it were my $9.51 shares ... so at $10.32 +.81 = $405 (ahead but could have been much more had I let it go Friday or tomorrow)
Now I'm sitting on the other 500 @ $9.81 ... no idea when I should be pulling the trigger selling these. Guess I'll watch for a while tomorrow and see what direction it starts off in.
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Sputnikv8
Footballguy
Not sure this thread has shown much success on this product! You may become the resident pro!
