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Stock Thread (55 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Capella
Footballguy
I’m sitting at NTB getting new tires because they were too low to pass inspection (effing dealership never mentioned it last month at service). I was pissed having to buy them. CNBC is on and after I watched the earnings, my attitude changed a wee bit.
Brony
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I'm so wet
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
didnt even check until I looked at this thread.
Please hold, can’t sell my options until 930am...
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Listening to the earnings call, Prime price going to $119 from $99, bullish, stock just jumped $15.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
This call is so unbelievably bullish...
Price targets going up tonight/tomorrow.
Price targets going up tonight/tomorrow.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Yeah, between them making their FBA fee's, which are an average of $2.50-4.75 per small to medium item, plus 15% off the top, they are ROLLING in it. That doesn't even count storage and monthly fees.
cosjobs
Footballguy
mini-tailed you after hours9k of SDS
9k of SDOW
9k of QID
1000 SDOW @ 39.67
2000 QID @ 11.70
Capella
Footballguy
NeverEnough
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Good luck fantasycurse! Will be watching amazon today, hope it gets there.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Took profits in the low 16's - kinda sucks that you can't sell options outside of regular market hours, I wanted to sell them off when this was 1650, put my order in before the open and it just fell. If I could've sold premarket, would've had a nice $15k profit, instead it was a little less than half of that
(plus the downside puts are also worthless, someone actually gave me 2 cents for them, I took it, $4>>$0).I think with the 4.5% gain yesterday, some of this beat was already priced in, hence the action today.
ETA:
Wherever the largest open interest in options is, is where this closes today, book it - I don't understand how they do it, but option sellers always win. I haven't looked bc I'm taking my profit and walking away, but if I was guessing, it'll be pinned on $1,600 at close.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
It just hit me right now, I could've shorted 200 shares premarket and locked it in at that exact total, #### me!!Took profits in the low 16's - kinda sucks that you can't sell options outside of regular market hours, I wanted to sell them off when this was 1650, put my order in before the open and it just fell. If I could've sold premarket, would've had a nice $15k profit, instead it was a little less than half of that
I think with the 4.5% gain yesterday, some of this beat was already priced in, hence the action today.
ETA:
Wherever the largest open interest in options is, is where this closes today, book it - I don't understand how they do it, but option sellers always win. I haven't looked bc I'm taking my profit and walking away, but if I was guessing, it'll be pinned on $1,600 at close.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I'm in VFIAX and another fund that is, unfortunately closed.
But, FWIW, the purpose of a target date fund is to do the allocation for you. If you add additional funds, you basically undo that.
But, FWIW, the purpose of a target date fund is to do the allocation for you. If you add additional funds, you basically undo that.
culdeus
Footballguy
I only use target date funds as a street sweeper till I get 10k or so in it, then push it to lower fee funds. I wouldn't buy a target fund from an unallocated position, if that makes sense. TBH I'm having a little trouble with the context of the question so this could be a :whoosh:
Target dates run in the ~1% range. I try to keep the vast majority of holdings in a <.1% ETF.
I use schwab and many of their etfs are in the 0.01% fee range now.
Target date funds imo do have some value in that total bond type ETFs still have pretty high fees as a rule, so if you buy relatively short term target date you can actually shave fees down (To a point).
GoBirds
Footballguy
So basically I'm dipping my toe in the water with Vanguard to get a feel for managing my own portfolio with a small portion of my total portfolio (less than 5%) before making the full move from a brokerage paying a fee. I put an order in for VFORX which appears to have a low fee of .15%? I also wanted to put together a small "lazy portfolio" of some other index funds that would be similar with maybe some tweaks to it.
I've been consumed with our small business for years and have paid unnecessary management fees that I know I need to get away from but want to make sure I have a handle on it first.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
But, it is made up of funds that also have fees, unless there is some arrangement among Vanguard funds. 52% is in Total Stock Market, for example.It has .04% fee, so even if the fee is reimbursed, it is probably cheaper to buy the individual funds in the target fund,
GoBirds
Footballguy
Great input, thanks for the save there. Where the VFIAX you mentioned is just the .04% fee? So balance that out with the bond and international fund and save yourself the added fee of the target fund?
You stay mostly Vanguard or mix funds based on fee and other factors?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
To me we are in a 2005/2006-2008 period - we know this cycle is winding down, and you can pick some winners in there, but we've lost the biggest market cheerleader there is (Yellen) - the current chair isn't coming to hold our hands every time the market falls 3%.
Some ups, some downs, but the end of the cycle will be unpleasant - not as unpleasant as the end of the last one, but could there be 20-30% cleaned out quickly, I'd think yes... Free money period is over, market is waking up to that. The last 3 months of volatility? The market sees issues way before they become clear, think that is where we currently are.
I might sneak in and out of a few things, but my game is preservation for now.
AAPL reports tomorrow - I'd bet on a seesaw from their earnings... A fall on meh iphone numbers/guidance, a rise on Tim's conference call when he discusses how they're going to improve demand, growth, raise dividends, and increase in buybacks. You'll see an Apple rally on that. If that all comes to fruition, I'll have confirmation I've seen that properly, and I'll short that rally, looking for downside of $155-$157 from $165-$167.
Some ups, some downs, but the end of the cycle will be unpleasant - not as unpleasant as the end of the last one, but could there be 20-30% cleaned out quickly, I'd think yes... Free money period is over, market is waking up to that. The last 3 months of volatility? The market sees issues way before they become clear, think that is where we currently are.
I might sneak in and out of a few things, but my game is preservation for now.
AAPL reports tomorrow - I'd bet on a seesaw from their earnings... A fall on meh iphone numbers/guidance, a rise on Tim's conference call when he discusses how they're going to improve demand, growth, raise dividends, and increase in buybacks. You'll see an Apple rally on that. If that all comes to fruition, I'll have confirmation I've seen that properly, and I'll short that rally, looking for downside of $155-$157 from $165-$167.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
@GoBirdsI took VFIAX over Total just because the yield was a tiny bit higher, I mainly buy individual stocks; the VFIAX and Primecap are my only funds, (plus my IRA is in Cap Opportunity and Strategic Small Cap, which hasn't been that great). Beyond the fee savings, as mentioned earlier, if you're not going to JUST have a target fund, there's really no reason to have it at all because you are undoing their target allocation when you add your other funds.
sbonomo
Footballguy
So I just wrote covered calls at 167.5 for May. If your guardrails are right, selling a put today in the 157-8 Range could pay out well if they report bad news....hmmm
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
To me, it feels like the market is itching to sell Apple - think they see the same reception GOOG saw, but I think GOOG's numbers are more impressive than AAPL's will be.
They'll rally on similar nonsense that we've seen over the last few years (buybacks, etc.), but I think they'll end up selling... If they wind up rallying like 5-7%, I'll know I'm wrong, but 2 or 3%, similar to MSFT, I think a reversal will be in the works - need to see the numbers and the guidance, but honestly, just speaking rationally, how many $1k+ phone buyers are there on an annual or semi-annual basis?
culdeus
Footballguy
I do see what you are saying here but I feel like my method of using target as a "poor man's" sweeper is valid. I don't let the balance get into the 5 figures without putting it somewhere at a lower fee structure. The alternative for me is a lot more trades and fees where the target funds trade free.
So I'm basically farming out an hour or two of work a month (At a cost of $20/mo. minimum) to trade for 90 more basis points in fees on 1% of my portfolio. Probably washes, tbf.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
I would also point out that Dentist gave me a pro tip a while back that turned me on to Merrill Edge for their 40 trades a month. If you don't anticipate a lot of transactions that is one route to get to the end goal you describe.
Capella
Footballguy
Well I tracked this website for the whole month. On April 3rd, Amazon opened at 1391. This site said on 4/30 it would close at 1552. Yesterday it closed at 1566. Not bad!
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
This is an area where I struggle: Seeing short-term headwinds for positions I want to maintain long-term.
I'm not holding CBLLF to retirement. I have high and low-end targets for divesting that position as things develop. But I can see holding AAPL and GOOGL for 10+ years. AAPL's cash hoard gives them options other companies may not have as their products reach maturity, and the shift towards growing services provides them with an additional cushion they didn't have when ithings were everything to them.
If autonomous vehicles truly come to pass in the timelines people seem to be expecting, my money is on GOOGL being first/best. That's a hell of a kick to an already dominant position in an area that's become integral to each of our lives.
I don't know that I buy a 30% s-t dip for either from here. But even if there is, weathering that vs. taking the immediate haircut and risking being wrong is an evaluation I'm uncomfortable making. It should be easier to manage things when you're fortunate enough to find 100+% gains, but I find it easier to protect a 20% gain on something I don't want to own until I retire.
:looksatsiff:
I'm not holding CBLLF to retirement. I have high and low-end targets for divesting that position as things develop. But I can see holding AAPL and GOOGL for 10+ years. AAPL's cash hoard gives them options other companies may not have as their products reach maturity, and the shift towards growing services provides them with an additional cushion they didn't have when ithings were everything to them.
If autonomous vehicles truly come to pass in the timelines people seem to be expecting, my money is on GOOGL being first/best. That's a hell of a kick to an already dominant position in an area that's become integral to each of our lives.
I don't know that I buy a 30% s-t dip for either from here. But even if there is, weathering that vs. taking the immediate haircut and risking being wrong is an evaluation I'm uncomfortable making. It should be easier to manage things when you're fortunate enough to find 100+% gains, but I find it easier to protect a 20% gain on something I don't want to own until I retire.
:looksatsiff:
siffoin
Footballguy
If your projection on things you want to own is a 10 year time horizon, why not take advantage of a downturn and just dollar cost average more into the position. It won't feel good if the position drops hard until 10 years from now with the accumulated shares. There is a risk to strategies like Covered Calls that wind up biting you in the ###...you could however purchase some protective puts. I'd do it with the $SPY as that is the cheapest option. Example. you can protect $26.5k of your "diversified" portfolio till June 2019 for $1750 (SPY June 265 Puts at $17.50). $14000 would protect $200k. That's about 7% but on a 30% dip that would seem like nice protection to own.Bob Sacamano said:
FWIW: I think the market is still Bullish (Bearly). I'd consider it a "Yellow Light" market. On the Monthly Chart that I posted a while back that begins in the mid-90's. The trend is still quite bullish and would still take time to roll over - we're talking a number of months. The worst kind of market for me is one that is like this. Flatish with whipsaws. Even if it were to roll over...I still think it would make a run at some point back towards $SPY @ $280. (note: my opinion may change as conditions warrant.)
SPY Monthly Chart
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