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Stock Thread (28 Viewers)

fantasycurse42 said:
Show of hands, who believes Musk has the financing to take this thing private? 

I'll go first, I don't.
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No chance - looking for entry point tonstoart buying puts again.  

 
at least I got rid of the tvix bag I was holding.

and unloaded my HZN bag after earnings bump made me a small profit. Wouldn't touch this again until next trailer hitch season.

Now I'm in the market for some more amzn or googl if the price should drop to my liking.

 
Bossman said:
at least I got rid of the tvix bag I was holding.

and unloaded my HZN bag after earnings bump made me a small profit. Wouldn't touch this again until next trailer hitch season.

Now I'm in the market for some more amzn or googl if the price should drop to my liking.
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I’ve got a good chunk sitting on the sidelines right now. I don’t think there’s big downside but I don’t see much upside from here. The safest plays may be Google, Amazon and Apple. Not as much sparing from here but even if the market dips, I think they continue to have good earnings the next year+. I’m locked into Amazon over the next two years, but I rolled over a long term 401k a week and a half ago. It’s my largest bucket so I’m investigating things for largest upside the next 5-10 years. I’m gladly taking my time.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
That correction I've been waiting for should be right around the corner.   TVIX will hit $80 by months end probably.
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Just let me know before you jump back in so I can buy in and ride the market upswing.

 
stbugs said:
I’ve got a good chunk sitting on the sidelines right now. I don’t think there’s big downside but I don’t see much upside from here. The safest plays may be Google, Amazon and Apple. Not as much sparing from here but even if the market dips, I think they continue to have good earnings the next year+. I’m locked into Amazon over the next two years, but I rolled over a long term 401k a week and a half ago. It’s my largest bucket so I’m investigating things for largest upside the next 5-10 years. I’m gladly taking my time.
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My problem is that it pains me just as much when I don't buy in ... and the stock price goes up

feels like I'm losing money.

Gotta be patient though. Wait for the dip. Today just isn't enough dip to tempt me to jump in at <1% for amzn or google. Not after the run they've been on this last week.

Maybe they continue to fall going into next week. Would love to get those on sale.

 
Bossman said:
My problem is that it pains me just as much when I don't buy in ... and the stock price goes up

feels like I'm losing money.

Gotta be patient though. Wait for the dip. Today just isn't enough dip to tempt me to jump in at <1% for amzn or google. Not after the run they've been on this last week.

Maybe they continue to fall going into next week. Would love to get those on sale.
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I know what you are saying. I was thinking that with my rollover sitting on the sidelines the past week or so. With today, I think it’s likely dead even, but I don’t want to make a rash decision. I’m thinking of what can I buy that has the potential in 10 years to make me retire early. Missing out on 1% isn’t a big deal. That said, since I’m definitely looking long term, I don’t want to miss a good stock by trying to wait for a 10-20% drop that never happens.

If you are thinking short term that’s a whole different animal. I’ve just been thinking that there’s more potential downside than upside in the near future. 

 
When I have some free time, I'm going to make the greatest photoshop ever, picture this, opinions (yay/nay?)

The George Bush photo on the Navy ship with the "Mission Accomplished" while giving a thumbs up - Insert Elon Musk face over George Bush and edit sign to say "Funding Secured"

Scale of 1-10? 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
When I have some free time, I'm going to make the greatest photoshop ever, picture this, opinions (yay/nay?)

The George Bush photo on the Navy ship with the "Mission Accomplished" while giving a thumbs up - Insert Elon Musk face over George Bush and edit sign to say "Funding Secured"

Scale of 1-10? 
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Pretty sure you are already too late for that. Was on Twitter this morning after the new blog post.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
I was and it ran up to almost $62, wish I would have covered there, would have only lost about 3k.  Thanks for being an ####### though. :thumbup:
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I’m not being an #######, but that makes no sense. You bought the last 100 at 51 and change on July 5th. That’s the best it’s been and that would be down over $10k. One day later was $45 and almost $16k loss and it’s been much worse since then. No way you could have been down close to $20k and recovered because it hasn’t gone above $40 and change after getting that low.

Sorry for discussing, you don’t have to. When you guys were talking about it so much I was checking into it because I still don’t quite understand how it just looks like a losing bet because it just goes down. For some stupid reason I keep checking it to see what’s going on and I’ve got a good memory for useless information. 

 
stbugs said:
I’m not being an #######, but that makes no sense. You bought the last 100 at 51 and change on July 5th. That’s the best it’s been and that would be down over $10k. One day later was $45 and almost $16k loss and it’s been much worse since then. No way you could have been down close to $20k and recovered because it hasn’t gone above $40 and change after getting that low.

Sorry for discussing, you don’t have to. When you guys were talking about it so much I was checking into it because I still don’t quite understand how it just looks like a losing bet because it just goes down. For some stupid reason I keep checking it to see what’s going on and I’ve got a good memory for useless information. 
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I wasn't replying to you.  :)

It hit almost $61 one day, @skycriesmary posted a congratulations actually, but I think closed around $57 and my average was around $66.  I only wish I would have sold earlier.  Losing 10k sucks.  Really thought the selling would continue.   I've been honest about wins and losses for a long time here. I don't see a whole lot of other people posting their trades.  Been really busy with life to haven't been around much.  I sold a lot that I didn't post here and have a large amount of cash so in the grand scheme so a loss of 10k, or 20, or 40k for that matter is a small percentage of my overall gains. 

ETA

It REALLY sucks though.  I don't like losing.  You would think after 50 years I would be used to being wrong and losing. ;)

 
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Take_The_Shot said:
Pretty sure you are already too late for that. Was on Twitter this morning after the new blog post.
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Can you post the link? I'd like to look at it.

St. Louis Bob said:
I was and it ran up to almost $62, wish I would have covered there, would have only lost about 3k.  Thanks for being an ####### though. :thumbup:
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Ridiculously bad form to rub losers in - I think as a thread, we have the occasional TVIX SLB joke along the lines of time to buy or something like that in friendly fun when he mentions TVIX 100 shares, but to pinpoint losses and specific numbers in a trade is beyond obnoxious. 

I see no reason in the world to do that except to agitate for the purpose of agitating.

 
Damn it!! That's brilliant :lmao:

I mean, it is blatantly obvious off of his blog post (unless you want to redefine the word "secured"), that funding is far from secured. 

To me, I have no idea how this guy gets away with this stuff. 

I mean, this is pure price manipulation of a $60+ billion dollar company by the CEO (who also happens to be the largest shareholder) and needs the stock over $360 next Spring. 

 
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fantasycurse42 said:
Damn it!! That's brilliant :lmao:

I mean, it is blatantly obvious off of his blog post (unless you want to redefine the word "secured"), that funding is far from secured. 

To me, I have no idea how this guy gets away with this stuff. 

I mean, this is pure price manipulation of a $60+ billion dollar company by the CEO (who also happens to be the largest shareholder) and needs the stock over $360 next Spring. 
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What do your last two lines mean?

 
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Bossman said:
My problem is that it pains me just as much when I don't buy in ... and the stock price goes up

feels like I'm losing money.

Gotta be patient though. Wait for the dip. Today just isn't enough dip to tempt me to jump in at <1% for amzn or google. Not after the run they've been on this last week.

Maybe they continue to fall going into next week. Would love to get those on sale.
Click to expand...
I could be wrong but I think we are in line for a bit of a drop. Not sure how much, but I may be watching a little longer. Today was a good day for me since Amazon was positive and most everything else I have is in cash. I don’t count the current 401ks since my new one and my wife’s are less than a year/2 year’s old. Dollar cost averaging if something falls since we are maxed with some matching.

That said I need to make up my 5-10 year choices soon. If there is a little pull back, might be a nice buy in. 

 
Sand said:
One could easily argue these are the most exposed.  Well, besides Tesla and Netflix.
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Tesla and Netflix (and Facebook) all have had quarterly reporting issues lately. What I meant is that as possibly overpriced as they may be, I think they could be safer knowing that they have he best chances of continuing their price levels. Imagine if the stock market sentiment turns a bit negative and Facebook and Netflix have quarterly misses. They’d get hit even harder. If the market dips, most everything will dip with it but if a company continues to beat estimates they will hold on or go up a little. That’s what I mean and I think those three have the higher probability of making their numbers and staying afloat.

 
stbugs said:
Tesla and Netflix (and Facebook) all have had quarterly reporting issues lately. What I meant is that as possibly overpriced as they may be, I think they could be safer knowing that they have he best chances of continuing their price levels. Imagine if the stock market sentiment turns a bit negative and Facebook and Netflix have quarterly misses. They’d get hit even harder. If the market dips, most everything will dip with it but if a company continues to beat estimates they will hold on or go up a little. That’s what I mean and I think those three have the higher probability of making their numbers and staying afloat.
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All of these stocks are very crowded trades (include MSFT here, too), except for TSLA.  So any downturn, though temporary, could be self-reinforcing.  Though, unlike 2000, these companies have real products and real profits.   Heck, Apple still has a pretty compelling valuation. It would not surprise me, though, in 6 months to be talking about the great reversal in these beasts as they fall out of favor.  They will at some point.

TSLA is a bit of a special beast in that it has a bunch of short interest.  Not exactly overbought at the moment due to that.  

 
Sand said:
All of these stocks are very crowded trades (include MSFT here, too), except for TSLA.  So any downturn, though temporary, could be self-reinforcing.  Though, unlike 2000, these companies have real products and real profits.   Heck, Apple still has a pretty compelling valuation. It would not surprise me, though, in 6 months to be talking about the great reversal in these beasts as they fall out of favor.  They will at some point.

TSLA is a bit of a special beast in that it has a bunch of short interest.  Not exactly overbought at the moment due to that.  
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Not so sure about 6 months. I need longer than that! In 6 months that’s only 2 more quarterly reports and while they won’t keep rolling like crazy I just see them as being stocks that people will still want because as weird as it sounds with the great run ups they are sort of safe. I’m still only talking about the ones that haven’t had bad reports. TSLA is a completely different animal with its not really making money and promises missed many times (like the 5k per week promised a bunch of times).  

 
stbugs said:
Not so sure about 6 months. I need longer than that! In 6 months that’s only 2 more quarterly reports and while they won’t keep rolling like crazy I just see them as being stocks that people will still want because as weird as it sounds with the great run ups they are sort of safe. I’m still only talking about the ones that haven’t had bad reports. TSLA is a completely different animal with its not really making money and promises missed many times (like the 5k per week promised a bunch of times).  
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The market is irrational.  Right now everyone wants in.  I'm just saying it's very plausible in 6 months everyone will want out (at the same time). 

 
Bob Sacamano said:
How safe is AMZN when a recession hits?  Does everybody keep their prime memberships when layoffs come?
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It's a crowded trade. When a recession hits? I'd think very vulnerable. Really the only risk to this stock as of now, IMO. And a recession is still at least 12-24 months off. 

I'd also have to imagine they lose at least 5-10% of Prime memberships in a recession which translates to who knows how much retail sales. 

 
stbugs said:
I could be wrong but I think we are in line for a bit of a drop. Not sure how much, but I may be watching a little longer. Today was a good day for me since Amazon was positive and most everything else I have is in cash. I don’t count the current 401ks since my new one and my wife’s are less than a year/2 year’s old. Dollar cost averaging if something falls since we are maxed with some matching.

That said I need to make up my 5-10 year choices soon. If there is a little pull back, might be a nice buy in. 
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Little pull back today ... maybe more.

I'd love to get more amzn at 1850 or so. Might take Armageddon to get it to drop that low again though.

Also interested in googl. The run it's been on lately peaked my interest  ... which is also what makes me hesitate. Jumped up a bunch in such a short time frame.

Not sure my target price on that one but if it drops substantially I'm in.

Sorry I'm rooting against amzn today Capella ... just know that I'm on your side once I empty my pockets again. (and she always bounces back. always)

 
Gotta say / admit that my first (and last) TVIX trade I made was by far my worst ever. Not a ton of money (bought 80 shares at $50 in early July), expected a correction or at least some positive movement in TVIX over the next month or so but got none. Checked back in to these boards to confirm that, no I should not be holding this bag for very long, and sold it one week ago at its very bottom (it had done nothing but go straight down for a full month) at $30, taking a loss of 40%. Within hours of selling, it started climbing and has done nothing but go up to where it is right now at $41. I've lost a lot more on other trades, but there is nothing that feels like a kick to the gut than buying high, selling low, and seeing the recovery immediately follow. It's like getting drunk on tequila once when you're young and swearing it off for the rest of your life. I can't handle this hangover. Just needed to get that off of my chest. The past two days have just been a bloodbath (I'm heavy into Chinese stocks that are getting decimated) so it's been a rough week so far.

 
I know I've harped on this for the last 3-4 months, but yield curve yield curve yield curve. 

Don't listen to the moronic this time is different comments. It's down to under 25 basis points and continues to flatten. Unless the Fed dramatically shifts policy, it'll invert in 6-9 months. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I know I've harped on this for the last 3-4 months, but yield curve yield curve yield curve. 

Don't listen to the moronic this time is different comments. It's down to under 25 basis points and continues to flatten. Unless the Fed dramatically shifts policy, it'll invert in 6-9 months. 
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I keep my E-Fund in a few different forms. One is a Treasury Direct Account. I've been buying a $100 30 Year Bond each month for the past couple years; more as a way to piss off my wife after I'm dead than for any wise financial planning. The bulk of the cash I keep reinvesting in 26-week bills (figuring that would cover job loss with weekly cash incoming).

The 30-Year just processed today and the 26-Week was priced on Monday. 30-Year bond is paying 3% (with a $1.75 discount) and the 26-Week bill is paying 2.235%. 3 and 5 year Notes are paying the same ($0.26 discount difference on the 5) and the 7 and 10 year notes are paying the same ($0.38 cent discount on the 10). Crazy that it's less than a 1% difference to keep your cash locked up for half a year or for 30.

 
pecorino said:
Gotta say / admit that my first (and last) TVIX trade I made was by far my worst ever. Not a ton of money (bought 80 shares at $50 in early July), expected a correction or at least some positive movement in TVIX over the next month or so but got none. Checked back in to these boards to confirm that, no I should not be holding this bag for very long, and sold it one week ago at its very bottom (it had done nothing but go straight down for a full month) at $30, taking a loss of 40%. Within hours of selling, it started climbing and has done nothing but go up to where it is right now at $41. I've lost a lot more on other trades, but there is nothing that feels like a kick to the gut than buying high, selling low, and seeing the recovery immediately follow. It's like getting drunk on tequila once when you're young and swearing it off for the rest of your life. I can't handle this hangover. Just needed to get that off of my chest. The past two days have just been a bloodbath (I'm heavy into Chinese stocks that are getting decimated) so it's been a rough week so far.
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I curse the day I learned about it. Sort of like my wife. 

 
I'm hoping, once I get past this hangover, that I learn the most efficient way to short the **** out of the TVIX to recoup my losses and turn a profit. I have a sense I am not done with it but it's way too soon right now. 

 
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