Happened a lot to me last year. Thinking a good in just to see it drop more and then being worried about a bigger drop and missing a great opportunity. The market moves so quickly these days.I bought some Friday. Shoulda waited.
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Stock Thread (37 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Plus it allows AWS to sell to companies who won't contract with them right now because they see Amazon as a competitor. If retailers become potential customers for AWS, it's tons of upside. They'd lose a little in their ability to test out things with Amazon behind the scenes before taking them to the rest of their customer base. But, yes, it makes AWS more valuable.Honestly if AMZN gets busted up, my gut says it's worth more, not less.
I think it was on one of the Motley Fool podcasts they said that if they spun off Amazon Web Services into a separate company, AWS would be in the top-ten-largest companies in the US.
What it does to the rest of Amazon, though, is the question. It'll hammer their bottom line. They're AWS' biggest customer, and they'll now have to pay a competitive rate to AWS. They won't be able to supplement their low-margin products and services with AWS anymore. We'd probably see an increase in things like Prime membership rates and possibly hardware costs.
I have to think if this was a net positive for the combined entity, Bezos would have found a way to do it by now. He doesn't strike me as the type to keep things the way they are just for comfort and familiarity.
Why would someone running a company growing leaps and bounds over the past 20 years want to spend any time thinking about spinning off units to increase shareholder value? Bezos shouldn’t spend a minute thinking about that now because he’s been delivering insane shareholder value based on the growth.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Why would the largest shareholder in a company contemplate as many ways as possible to maximize shareholder value? Hmmm...
I got nothin.
Yep, that’s what I said. You contemplate breaking up a company to unlock shareholder value when you aren’t growing at their clip. You can’t seriously be arguing that he should think about spinning stuff off to get incremental value when the growth of the company has caused the stock to go up over 500% in the past 5 years even with the dip. I understand maximizing shareholder value but this is absolutely not a case where the CEO should be spending a minute thinking about that option. Stagnant stock? Sure, but right now while the revenue is still growing rapidly? Nope.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Ignoring that I never said he should, it's pure idiocy to think he hasn't spent any time thinking about it.
Of course he has because he knows he’s heard about anti-trust but he’s also said he didn’t want to break anything up. It’s also idiocy to say that he should be spending time on unlocking shareholder value when it’s clear the growth of the entire company has far exceeded investor expectations and unlocking shareholder value via break up. We aren’t saying anything really different, I’m just saying there’s clearly a path to continue that growth first and they aren’t close to other avenues unless forced.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
What do you guys think about general electric GE....price is under 10 a share....chance for a rebound?
Wouldn’t touch it. I had 6 shares that’s been sitting in an IRA for years. I worked for them a long time ago when I was young for a couple years and that was part of a rollover. I mainly had the 401k in mutual funds so I only had this 6 shares. They’ve slowly gone towards $0 and I should have sold them but kind of forgot because it was so small.
There are so many other good investments out there. One of the 3 stocks I invested in when the market had a bad day was TTD. It’s up @ 20% the past 3 weeks even with all the other bad days. I’d put more in that way before I would touch GE.
Sand
Footballguy
I remember reading an article a while back that noted the best way to make money in the market would be to mirror a Senator's portfolio. Their returns, on average, are absolutely ridiculous (like double the S&P).
Yeah - when that news came out the FAANG stocks, sans one A, plummeted. Not a surprise that Apple held firm - it's not a monopoly. Amazon, Facebook, Google - definitely monopolies.
Hard not to be when they all knew about the financial crisis crash before it happened. Imagine if you could have avoided that huge drop and bought back in near the bottom. Even with just the S&P you would have likely doubled the return the past 10 years with that one maneuver.
Hey, I bought 500 shares of TTD (most IRA and some cash account) on 5/13, so I’m pretty happy. It’s my number 1 holding, besides our non-vested Amazon, after the 30% run up the past 3 weeks so I’m pretty happy Pelosi sent me the tip.
Gawain
Footballguy
There was a brief discussion about people saying they are in cash and you've just said standing on the sidelines.
If you don't mind me asking, with what percentage? My 401K is in index funds. My IRAs are in index funds. The measly 529s that I have for the kids are in index funds.
I have a brokerage account that's about 7% of the total that I play around with, but are you pulling your entire portfolio out of the market when you state you're on the sidelines?
siffoin
Footballguy
I can't speak for everyone. But I tend to hold a portion in cash all the time. It gives me freedom to make moves. However I might also consider a position in Treasuries akin to Cash too. So $TLT or $IEF would be examples of that. There might be times when I'm over-weighted in Treasuries in comparison to Equities and other times it's just the opposite. Trend, age, risk tolerance etc might dictate how you would be allocated. Meaning a single 30 year old with $50k in the market might be allocated differently than a married w/ 2 kids in college 55 year old with $1mil in the market.
100% money market fund.
That's why I'm rooting for a meltdown to S&P 2000. I'll take a revisit of the Dec. low.
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Gawain
Footballguy
Everyone has to look out for themselves and I have 20-25 years to go, so day to day swings aren't that big an issue.
Still, I can't help but think of that one guy playing Don't Pass at the table.
Sand
Footballguy
At least in what I hold if I'm in cash (and I do have a good bit that's "cash") I hold ICSH. It's not cash, but it doesn't move much and right now it sheds a couple percent.
This guy has been bs'ing this for as long as I can remember. I have never heard him ever state he has invested in the stock market. Always 100% cash, rooting for a crash. Don't feed the troll.
If you have 20-25 years before you have to touch your retirement, I'd just stay the course.
IMO, anyone trading of late is gambling way more than investing. Is the Fed going to cut rates. Are we going to continue on with tariffs and so on.
Personally, I'm sitting on quite a bit more cash then usual, but that's simply because we have had almost a 10 year bull market now and I've had massive gains on a lot of stocks/funds. Every year I've been getting hammered in taxes and crying about it, but in truth, my net worth has been on a diagonal up and to the right pretty severely. And by a lot of cash, I'm saying maybe 15% cash.
Job report that came out wasn't great - but ffs, we're sitting at nearly a full workforce as it is.
There are always going to be fear factors driving the market down from time to time. Inflation, recession, etc.... But in short you need to find where you can make a decent return on your cash.
Yep. That's where I'm sitting and that's what it feels like sometimes. I almost pulled the trigger Monday at 3:50 and was planning a 2 day pass line bet. Sometimes I actually place the bet on the don't pass (VCGSX or VUSTX.). Right now I have no bets.
I'd tell you off but you would cry to the mods. I would screen shot my account just to prove you wrong but you are not worth an ounce of oxygen.
I could also show you that I started the account back in 2009 along with the % gains from every year. the reason I started it then was because we had melted down so magnificently, it was a no-brainer. In fact I will, just to show what a real troll you are.
Eat it.
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culdeus
Footballguy
I've never known if this is a smart strategy but I usually do not choose to re-invest funds and go through cycles where I am 100% invested and let that work down from there as index funds cash me out. This is independent of tax harvesting which is not always available.
I hate selling stuff at a tax gain only to re balance slightly. So I very rarely carry much cash, I consider somewhat the projected dividends and payouts to be my "cash".
Edit: You all are welcome to subscribe to my newsletter and thank you for coming to my ted talk.
I hate selling stuff at a tax gain only to re balance slightly. So I very rarely carry much cash, I consider somewhat the projected dividends and payouts to be my "cash".
Edit: You all are welcome to subscribe to my newsletter and thank you for coming to my ted talk.
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Mario Kart
Footballguy
I sold all my holdings and spent half on GE and half on GME. Going to ride those trains to an early retirement.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
In a meeting. What did DOCU do to get slaughtered?
Subscription deceleration? But like 1%. This seems like an overreaction because they also upped guidance. I'm tempted to jump in here after hours before the algos correct.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Looks like they just reported earnings and reported slightly higher than expected per-share GAAP loss
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I'm sure somebody could make a case for why I shouldn't like them, but I'd really like to hear it.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
something better than "they're not profitable". I don't believe this is one of the recent IPOs without a reasonable path to profitability. They're choosing to invest in themselves to stoke growth.
Capella
Footballguy
Damn, every stock I looked at on Monday is up 15-20% this week. Missed the boat on that. Still up $50k in the 3 stocks I bought three weeks ago so I can’t complain at all. I’d be really pissed at myself if I hadn’t jumped in at all. TTD was my main purchase and it’s up 39%.
Lol. I’m still heavy in cash. Not counting our 401ks, I’m still around 30% cash in the accounts I can buy individual stocks. The 70% stock is definitely risky/higher growth so kind of offsets in terms of total return (10-15% total the past month). Not sure where the negative guy is, but I’m glad I jumped in high growth when I did. Amazing that 3 stocks I was thinking about on Monday are up 20-30% the past 4 days. Crazy. All of them reported earnings leading to the jumps. I was looking but damn work always gets in the way. If I had known all three reported this week I would have been more tempted.
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I am completely baffled by this Beyond Meat run.
I have not ate red meat or pork in nearly 30 years. I'm a huge advocate of turning to plant based foods and lessening the impact of cattle raising which has huge climatic implications. However, this company has a terrible supply chain. Pricing is extremely high for their product. Their valuations are through the roof and in order for them to meet this market cap, they will need to continue to grow at Google-like leaps for the next decade. Not to mention that there is already some competition in the super market and impossible foods may even offer a superior product. This is just crazy
I have not ate red meat or pork in nearly 30 years. I'm a huge advocate of turning to plant based foods and lessening the impact of cattle raising which has huge climatic implications. However, this company has a terrible supply chain. Pricing is extremely high for their product. Their valuations are through the roof and in order for them to meet this market cap, they will need to continue to grow at Google-like leaps for the next decade. Not to mention that there is already some competition in the super market and impossible foods may even offer a superior product. This is just crazy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I see what you did there. All you are doing right now is getting back the money you lost in May. Yeah, I'm missing this current 'recovery' (or shall I call it a bear market rally) in the market but since the close on 1-22-2018, the S&P is up a whopping 0.25% and the NAZ is up 3.72%. Yeah, big whoop. If you are in small caps, you are a net loser to the tune of about -5.75%. No one with 401k's, or other accounts like that, is killing it unless they are timing the markets like a champ. If they are spreading the $ around across funds, they have gone nowhere in 18 months.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I always suspected siff was on the payroll of big Guillotine
GoBirds
Footballguy
Geez, if I knew this was Lhucks, I would have bought Shopify. After a few replies to this post I realized he was talking about shorting Shopify.
Shopify was $150 when he posted this. Today, 6 months later it closed at $305. Lhucks it is.
