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Stock Thread (21 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
adonis
Footballguy
If you look at the trend line, market growth is almost linear for the past 8 years nearly.
I too think the Fed action likely premature and reduces options to later adjust to new challenges, but there are significant disruptions to the market now. China has seen a huge impact already - non hypothetical. Japan as well. Italy as well. Some of the markets currently affected aren't huge, but the indicators of future disruptions are all there. That is enough, in my opinion at least, to cause a reasonable disruption to the stock markets. The risk of future earnings has become huge, which means that expected returns may not be sufficient currently to outweigh the risks of significantly different returns.
I don't see a lot of market engineering in general though...again, if you look at most of the trend-lines for the past 8 -10 years, there's been pretty linear growth. I do think the tax cuts have encouraged higher returns that otherwise may be warranted, but at baseline it's just adjusting expected future earnings for a company based on new tax guidelines.
Overall, folks seem to be reacting most to the uncertainty of future earnings, or the idea that those earnings or the rate of return is justified based on the increased risk they see on the horizon. The fed may be acting to help reduce the risk by signaling easier access to capital....but it certainly seems a flimsy response in light of just some huge global risks out there.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
That’s certainly the type of company that has the product line and fundamentals to come back from short to mid-term softness to being even stronger in the long term. Their parks might see reduced revenue—but their streaming subscription model certainly helps offset that. I like this move for the long term.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Algos are gonna go nuts and I'm selling into the teeth of it. GLTA.
Can you unpack that for me further??? I know it's "algorithms" but can you give me more info?
Seems to me a constant battle between longs and shorts RIGHT AT LEVELS where it could go either way, thus stopping me from making a move.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Core programming in some of these algos reacts to movements in markets, which exacerbates moves up and down. Today they'll be in a buying frenzy, reality will come back and send them the other way.
Someone mentioned earlier in this thread, but bear rallies are the strongest.
ETA:
Gonna be a big seller of MU around $56
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Capella
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
Market is still expensive, no risk priced in and we're in unchartered territories. I can only play the cards as I see them, and to me, there still is minimal risk priced in.
ETA:
Do you see the fear and panic taking hold in other parts of the world? Just like our initial response to this virus, it's arrogant and foolish to think we won't have similar reactions as Italy, Japan, South Korea, etc. etc... So I have no choice.
I'll note my plays, and that's about it. We know what I'm short right now, & I'm adding to it today.
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xulf
Footballguy
This guy is really on it -- I've not followed him until you mentioned him a few pages ago --- but wow, his +/- is within a few points. This last uptick he mentions 3065, we hit it, dip to 3060 and now are just shooting up as he predicted. If we get near that 3140, I am pulling back a good chunk.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Taking a stab with this opinion, but I think we rally aggressively into close.
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Yep.
I tried Avi Gilburt but he massively failed on the dip in dec. 2018-jan 2019. Every dip, hept saying it's gonna drop to 2200-2200, then its a buy. At the same time one of the people on his site kept saying jump on board at every dip. I listened to the wrong guy. The final straw with him was when he said news doesn't matter, Elliott waves do not move on news. Then in an article on seeking alpha he said something like, "if Trump does this then the market will do this" and someone said 'i thought news didn't matter. He never responded. He does not take criticism well. When told he failed on that buying opportunity in Jan 2019, he always responds that he made 25% on TLT.
I can see it going right to Mancini's 3140. Thus putting once again at a level where I would be just flipping a coin as to whether to buy or not.
Going back thru his twitter feed, he says above 3130 sends us back to all time highs. He posted that in his 'megaphone' chart of the S&P.
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This was the Feb 28th Avi Gilburt post. Wrong as usual: Folks, there is nothing more to say other than the market is likely heading directly to the targets below. The next bounce we see of any significant that lasts days is likely only going to be a 4th wave in the c-wave down for IWM and EEM. But, until we begin seeing bounces, we will not even get an initial signal that we are going to be bottoming. This is looking like a direct move down to targets.
adonis
Footballguy
"It seems I miscalculated the alignment between jupiter and mars, and didn't account for the birth year of Tim Cook and how that factored into things. Rest assured I've updated my algorithms and had a serious talk with my Ouija board mates and the next round of predictions will be spot on."
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
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xulf
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Ok, selling it super hard right now... Good luck everyone!
EXPE is up 2% today
Thanks for the gift, Mr. Market!
EXPE is up 2% today
Thanks for the gift, Mr. Market!
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****ing S&P going right to his 3130-3140 region for the close. Dude is unreal.
His post just now: We're at my 3130-3140 target from this morning after a 60 point rally and would look to start looking in gains here on $SPX. This is the make or break zone tested for the second time after yesterdays 160 point drop. If bears are going to take it lower, this is the last chance
His post just now: We're at my 3130-3140 target from this morning after a 60 point rally and would look to start looking in gains here on $SPX. This is the make or break zone tested for the second time after yesterdays 160 point drop. If bears are going to take it lower, this is the last chance
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Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
The SPY is now a penny stock
Not that this means anything but I've been looking at what happened in 2011. (This was due to fears of contagion of the European sovereign debt crisis to Spain and Italy, as well as concerns over France's current AAA rating,[1] concerns over the slow economic growth of the United States and its credit rating being downgraded.) I read somewhere that this would be a good comparison. Not sure I buy that totally since this is a unique situation of bubble in stock prices and a virus that can't be stopped. Anyway.
Bottom was approx. 18.2%. S&P the next day was a 4.4% gain. The following day was -3.6%. The next day (where we are now) +3.94%. Pretty much just like this week.Bottom was 2 weeks later. This obviously wont follow that. However, what is going on now happens in selloffs. Crazy market gyrations. Question is, who is buying and who is selling. Are institutions dumping onto the buy the dip suckers and momentum players or is this a legit bottom?
Bottom was approx. 18.2%. S&P the next day was a 4.4% gain. The following day was -3.6%. The next day (where we are now) +3.94%. Pretty much just like this week.Bottom was 2 weeks later. This obviously wont follow that. However, what is going on now happens in selloffs. Crazy market gyrations. Question is, who is buying and who is selling. Are institutions dumping onto the buy the dip suckers and momentum players or is this a legit bottom?
culdeus
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Nasdaq is down 9% from lofty level all time highs, we have absolutely nothing priced in right now.
ETA:
Unless you believe this is the flu and well contained. I personally don't feel that way, but if I did, I'd be buying.
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This is big-boy kind of stuff. If it's real, I am impressed with your testicular fortitude. Good luck.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Oh, it's real, and it def takes cajones to risk $40k into the teeth of a buying blizzard like today. I'm of the opinion that the election stuff is irrelevant right now compared to what we're possibly facing, ####s getting ready to hit the fan. Sick people, gatherings cancelled, working from home, etc.
I look at like this:
1) If I'm wrong on this, life resumes back to normal... While I wouldn't want to lose $40k, if life resumes before June uninterrupted and I get to enjoy summer, my life won't be any different without that $40k and I'll be happy. Plus, with the $19k from yesterday, risk is only $21k net, plus can write off gains against that worst case.
2) If I really am hulled up in my house for a few months, might as well swing for the home run.
Looking at 1 & 2 collectively, the risk reward here makes this a play I want to take.
I'm also short EXPE, and NQ futures at 8900.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Who do you use for stock loan and have you noticed a spike in negative rebates on your borrows?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
culdeus
Footballguy
Penguin
Footballguy
I really believe we will feel some short term pain from this. Right now we are about 6 weeks behind China and 4 weeks or so behind South Korea, Italy and who knows with Iran. I just put in a 100% exchange of my non Brokerage Link part of my 401k from US Large Cap (-6.74% ytd) to Total Return Bond (+4.15% ytd) for the next few weeks.
I'm also liquidating my positions in AAPL, ALGN, CRON, DIS, MU the ones the hardest hit so far, the rest of the positions are all still + ytd
I'll probably start trimming those remaining positions if we have a decent uptick.
I find it hard to believe that we won't feel the pain the next 2-3 months from this.
I'm also liquidating my positions in AAPL, ALGN, CRON, DIS, MU the ones the hardest hit so far, the rest of the positions are all still + ytd
I'll probably start trimming those remaining positions if we have a decent uptick.
I find it hard to believe that we won't feel the pain the next 2-3 months from this.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I moved most of my 401K to Inflation Protected Treasury Index Fund (6.05% YTD) and Long-Term Government Bond Index Fund (19.72%YTD).
Don Hutson
Footballguy
xulf
Footballguy
We bounced right off the 3130 and futures have us ~2% down at 3055, right now. Just awesome accuracy.
According to his post from yesterday, if we lose support at 3030, buckle up for some pain.
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It’s got to be all this automatic trading and analytics. I’m sorry but the guy above isn’t Nostradamus. He’s looking at charts and it’s going that way. That’s how you get these wild swings. It’s all a self-fulfilling prophecy. I’ve owned ZM since October so it’s made a really nice return but it’s funny reading the articles about why the stock is down when they crushed earnings and raised future guidance. One thing mentioned that investors were expecting more due to the Corona virus. Do they even realize that they are reporting the last quarter which was before all of the recent panic? Long term, I love the stock but there’s going to be ups and downs that have nothing to do with the stock itself. Sometimes you have to roll with it. The amount of 5-10%+ daily movements up and down I’ve seen in just the past few weeks is crazy. Since I’m up on most everything and I don’t want to miss those recovery days, I’m mainly sitting tight. If stocks drop another 10%, then I’ll move all my cash in, but for now I’m just picking one by one if something gets hit harder than it should.
xulf
Footballguy
I'm certain the guy is not any Nostradamus, and I am very aware that these swings are being triggered by algorithms. What I like is that in the couple of days I have followed him is that he is in tune to what these trigger points are. Whether they are warranted buys or sells is irrelevant because they are actually happening. If he can identify those points...by using simple price analysis that apparently all the big players are using (or something similar), then why not follow along.
ETA - we are also in hyper-drive, so everything is happening in hours or in a day, that likely took a week or more in the past. The whole thing is just wild.
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Absolutely a classic bear flag forming on S&P. That's not saying there is an impending drop but if it does break lower, it's going way lower.
https://www.freeonlinetradingeducation.com/bear-flag.html
https://www.freeonlinetradingeducation.com/bear-flag.html
Agreed but he is doing the work for me that I cannot do or even have the time to do. That is my point for posting what he sees.
Oh, I understand. I just think in a world of analytics like we have now, everything is so condensed now. As soon as the bear signs are gone the recovery will probably be just as immediate. There’s no more gradual anymore. The amount of 10% swings I’ve seen in the few dozen stocks I watch is amazing.
