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TripItUp said:
I just can't see money coming into this market in the short term...everybody has a story about a school closure or business travel restriction at this point.
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In the short term markets can bounce and be irrational.  Maybe Fed and other CB's cut rates again hugely.  Maybe another huge cash injection.  Lots of stuff can happen, markets usually snapback.

 
djmich said:
In the short term markets can bounce and be irrational.  Maybe Fed and other CB's cut rates again hugely.  Maybe another huge cash injection.  Lots of stuff can happen, markets usually snapback.
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sure, I'm looking more day to day at this point.   

The govt will absolutely step in an QE the hell out of this if necessary.

 
Yes, and we have had two monster upside days, +5% or thereabouts. Feels like maybe one per week and we’ve already shot our wad this week. Today looks to be bloody but I wouldn’t be surprised by a 5% gain on Monday.

 
beef said:
Kind of got lost in the clinical talk.  I'll need to read the meeting minutes.
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Summary from yesterday's call (not mine):

My notes from an extraordinary meeting. We are going ahead (in spite of naysayers and shorts). Maybe I am missing a lot, but these are my mean takeaways: 

BLA clinical has been finalized!!! (remember we have rolling application and this is the one that takes more time to study by FDA). 

There will not be any dilutive financing. S0 we can rest easy with this one. 

Financing is coming. Several possibilities (4 investors under evaluation). Most likely will be benign debt. 

Coronavirus: one hour ago IND and protocol have been completed. Expected to file FDA tomorrow. Announcement on Monday with all details. Quest clinical in San Francisco ready to inject first patient New York Presbiterian Brooklyn Methodist want to enroll patients Stefano Rusconi Italy wan to enroll patients also. 

Going full blast with Nash 

Up-Listing a priority, however the cash in hand requirements ($100M NSE, $90M NASDAQ) are such that is better to wait until financing or deals are made.  
Will present in conference American Association of cancer research 

Commercial name: Virologics 

Question about GILD: “GILD: I am hoping we don’t get an offer until we get a BTD designation. If somebody offers something and shareholders approve I am up for it.” 

Dr. Patterson in Coronavirus: Of the 20 companies listed in article most are working on Vaccine or anti-viral. Only one (us) is ready with a good safety profile. 

IND and protocol for MS in a couple of weeks. 

March 29 meeting: Oncologist Pathologists, radiologists, open discussion and great opportunity to share ideas and come up with strategies. 

BTD for MTNBC applied on January 10th updated data on Feb 6th. According to FDA guidelines 60 Days Will be up on 6 days or so unless they choose to reset the date. 

New BTD we have IND, Lazeai have received. Have 2 patinet with different cancers and another one we could file based in mechanism of action. Lab doctor called several times and say that he had never seen such results so definitely there are responders. 

TFDA for Cancer, HIV and Coronavirus” Already signed letter of intent an NDA 30 days started already. AMAREX was the venue. They shared data with their branch in Taiwan so it will be expedited for BTD for cancer and for HIV. They want to see some paints from that region. 

CFDA document already transferred. They already transmitted them to CFDA so is in progress. 

Longen: 9 days from today Letter of Intent will lapse. Working hard on final term sheet. Will inform what happens and if it happens. 

Licensing with another very solid company with financial background (Taiwan) will be announcing something shorty. Both companies want to buy 24K plus 600K vials of commercial grade Leronlimab for Coronavirus and Oncology. Might get to the point that we are short of vials. 


Update in patients: 

7 Injected Yesterday 3/4/2020 
8 Will be Injected Friday 3/6/2020 
9 Passed screening, injection date TBD 
10 Passed screening, injection date TBD 
11 Will be Phase1/2b in Houston site 
12 Will be Phase 1/2b in Houston site 
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Bear flag off the 2/28 low has completed and the verdict seems to be in. Going lower is possible. 2920-2960 is a battleground, then 2880. We have had a record string of down Fridays in the market. No one wants to hold over the weekends. The chart guys have S&P 2640-2550 as the new short term target with the potential for 2200 before this is over. We are finishing off the 'denial stage'. Next up 'fear'. We still have 'desperation' and 'capitulation' to go after that. Been a really long time since the market has seen a true wash out capitulation. Gotta flush out Joe Retail who was completely duped again into buying at the top  along with the momentum players and the buy the dip crowd. Gotta make people hate the stock market.

Or it's just a retest of the lows. 

 
So 401k wise I've capitulated all gains and contributions back to 11/10/19.  somehow it seems way worse than that.  

I see no such cure coming.  I'm on fidelity and have been selling off stuff and have a buy order in whenever SPX closes above 3200 again.  

I'll chase that retracement level down as things get worse.  

 
Oil is absolutely getting smashed, this is crazy.  I couldn't help myself and dipped back in buying one, and I am a long term VLO holder, but if oil breaks through 42 level I was hearing it is look out below.  Lots of impact to be felt by this as well.

 
If I would’ve held onto all of my short bets, I would’ve made an extra $50k give or take. Made a huge profit this week, protected portfolios on the monster up days trimmings long bets, and I’m still upset with myself.

if I’m looking at this as a whole, I’d say we’re still 6-8 weeks away from max pain. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
If I would’ve held onto all of my short bets, I would’ve made an extra $50k give or take. Made a huge profit this week, protected portfolios on the monster up days trimmings long bets, and I’m still upset with myself.

if I’m looking at this as a whole, I’d say we’re still 6-8 weeks away from max pain. 
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On the PSF version of this thread I think I stated that I would target S&P500 at 2500 if I were hunting for the bottom, but 2000 wouldn't surprise me.  I still feel that way, so I agree with your take above.

However, if legit good news regarding US surveillance, an effective treatment regimen, or temperature-related slowing of the infection materializes, the markets will move hard higher and that will be all she wrote.

But I'm pessimistic.  This has all been playing out as I suspected it would, since observing the lethality, lag in onset of symptoms, and communicability numbers coming out of China at the start of the month of February.  March is going to be a very bad month.  I have some dry powder, but am not tempted to buy at these levels.  I'd rather keep it in the money market and bond funds for present.  If S&P 2500 never materializes, I'll be more than happy for a variety of reasons and won't regret missing out a little.

 
It's a warm spring. Most viruses do tail off when temps rise. So despite the poor US response, I think the max pain might be more like two weeks away with, hopefully, a trailing off of cases as March warms. 

 
culdeus said:
AAL hits another all time low. CCL just off a cliff.

Who is going to call this bottom?  
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Amazing.  I got some AAL with Brexit around 28 (thought that was a bargain), watched it go up to 50ish and then sold out in the 40s.   Can't believe it is around 16 now.    I'm staying away from it.

 
Ray McKigney said:
I bought 250 $INO a couple of weeks ago at 3.60, still holding. Would you guys dump before close and take profits or continue to hold and see if crests 20?
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I bought more today and put a stop loss on that. Decide where you are comfortable taking profits and do that imo. 

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Thanks man.  I'm actually wondering now whether to :

a) Just hold it long term and see if the vaccine is needed/effective and it continues to climb over time.  Probably not this just because of the volatility.

b) Unload before close today, take a few grand in profit and move on.

c) Hold until their earnings report on 3/12 and see if it pops again.  This could blow up in my face, so I would definitely go the route you did and place a stop loss next week.
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I took a nice profit the other day but really sold it less than where it is now. But I am a profit over questions kind of guy. Can’t go broke taking a profit yada yada and this is how I stay ahead of the ups and downs. I bought back in today but won’t take any kind of meaningful loss on it — just seems like the kind of stock that could bottom out quickly if they can’t produce what they say they can. Jmo - I really have no idea. I hope it takes off too. 

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Thanks man.  I'm actually wondering now whether to :

a) Just hold it long term and see if the vaccine is needed/effective and it continues to climb over time.  Probably not this just because of the volatility.

b) Unload before close today, take a few grand in profit and move on.

c) Hold until their earnings report on 3/12 and see if it pops again.  This could blow up in my face, so I would definitely go the route you did and place a stop loss next week.
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I don't know much about them except that their earnings report is pretty meaningless. Well, maybe not meaningless but until Coronavirus they looked like just another biotech with no products and negative earnings. The only thing likely to move the needle either way is if they say something good or bad about corona on the conference call.

 
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kodycutter said:
Amazing.  I got some AAL with Brexit around 28 (thought that was a bargain), watched it go up to 50ish and then sold out in the 40s.   Can't believe it is around 16 now.    I'm staying away from it.
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Opened at 15 before bouncing off that.  Their balance sheet is so bad I can see them not being able to take a bailout and folding.  

Such a #### airline too. They don't beat people up and drag them off the plane, but if I have literally any other choice I take it.

 
Damn, getting roasted today. Still up in almost all my individual stocks but a nice sized haircut. Do see some bargains forming though in a few that I don’t own.

I bought ZM in the 60s in October so still up a ton, but dear lord the last 3 weeks have been a roller coaster. At 90 on 2/14, up to 110 on 2/20, down to 100 on 2/21, up to 116 on 2/27, down to 100 on 2/28, up to 129 on 3/5 and down to 107 today. Back up to 113 or 114 at end of 3/6? It’s move almost 7% or more half the days the past 3 weeks. Effing crazy.

 
proteus126 said:
On the PSF version of this thread I think I stated that I would target S&P500 at 2500 if I were hunting for the bottom, but 2000 wouldn't surprise me.  I still feel that way, so I agree with your take above.

However, if legit good news regarding US surveillance, an effective treatment regimen, or temperature-related slowing of the infection materializes, the markets will move hard higher and that will be all she wrote.

But I'm pessimistic.  This has all been playing out as I suspected it would, since observing the lethality, lag in onset of symptoms, and communicability numbers coming out of China at the start of the month of February.  March is going to be a very bad month.  I have some dry powder, but am not tempted to buy at these levels.  I'd rather keep it in the money market and bond funds for present.  If S&P 2500 never materializes, I'll be more than happy for a variety of reasons and won't regret missing out a little.
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I’ve got 2 big plays and I’m half loaded on both.

ZM I loaded up on May 140 calls. I get the sense this one could go parabolic. If the market turns higher quickly, I feel this will benefit, and if virus fears become even stronger I think this one rockets.

The other is Shak. CMG has a P/E in the high 50s, Shak is in the low 80s. Personally I always lump these 2 together. And a burger stand, in a stay at home environment, whose same store YoY comps went down... Even in a bullish environment would be a decent short, imo. I see this one making new all time lows (previously high $20s).

Shak RSI indicates highly oversold, once I get the technical bounce I’m anticipating, I take my other half in.

 
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We’ve hit a tipping point, there’s no containment and numbers will double every 3 days. You’ve got to figure out what causes the next shoe to drop, which imo will be school closures... I think that could be as early as next week, but possibly closer to 2-3 weeks.

If they were smart, they’d adjust spring break and just move it to next week, then reevaluate.

 
lod001 said:
Started my move into 2 funds. 10% today.
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I pulled about 75% out a few weeks back with fears of this playing out as it has.  I put 15% of that back into play early in the day today with the market down 13% over that time, though for some reason I don’t feel good about getting back in right now.  I think there’s another solid 10%+ of downside lurking here.  Going to sit tight with the balance and see where we head from here, planning to DCA in additionally if/when we head below 25,000.

 
Oil futures down 25% in 2 weeks. That market is absolutely starting to price a recession. Prob a bounce at some point, but downside pressure is building.

Market will soon have to begin pricing in a recession, and a 10% garden variety correction from already extended levels certainly doesn’t do that.

ETA: Cheap gas :excited:

 
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SayWhat? said:
I pulled about 75% out a few weeks back with fears of this playing out as it has.  I put 15% of that back into play early in the day today with the market down 13% over that time, though for some reason I don’t feel good about getting back in right now.  I think there’s another solid 10%+ of downside lurking here.  Going to sit tight with the balance and see where we head from here, planning to DCA in additionally if/when we head below 25,000.
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I think so as well. I'm formulating the plan to continue moving in as we go down. 

 
pecorino said:
It's a warm spring. Most viruses do tail off when temps rise. So despite the poor US response, I think the max pain might be more like two weeks away with, hopefully, a trailing off of cases as March warms. 
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This is where I’m at, play short term volatility and get all the way in when it feels like a bottom in a month or so. 
 

that being said, we have no idea how the virus responds to warm weather. Just guesses. 

 
fantasycurse42 said:
We’ve hit a tipping point, there’s no containment and numbers will double every 3 days. You’ve got to figure out what causes the next shoe to drop, which imo will be school closures... I think that could be as early as next week, but possibly closer to 2-3 weeks.

If they were smart, they’d adjust spring break and just move it to next week, then reevaluate. 
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School closures already happening 

 
Bob Sacamano said:
Kind of ridiculous, really. It shouldn't take a virus to keep people from eating at Bubba Gump's.
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:lol:

But if you notice where he says business is impacted the most, it’s where Shack’s strategy has been to target, touristy areas, the rural areas are doing fine as of now. Their business was already struggling prior to this from their latest earnings, this should gut it.

I would really love to hear why I’m wrong about this if anyone has a reason.

I’m also liking the long on ZM more and more (and not just for now) and I’ll pay a premium to own them.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
:lol:

But if you notice where he says business is impacted the most, it’s where Shack’s strategy has been to target, touristy areas, the rural areas are doing fine as of now. Their business was already struggling prior to this from their latest earnings, this should gut it.

I would really love to hear why I’m wrong about this if anyone has a reason.

I’m also liking the long on ZM more and more (and not just for now) and I’ll pay a premium to own them.
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So to be clear, you are leaning towards shorting SHAK, thinking it’s headed down 20 points and then you’re a buyer in the high 20s? From your earlier post, I thought you were long SHAK. With P/E over 80, I’d be short as it sounds like you are.

 
pecorino said:
So to be clear, you are leaning towards shorting SHAK, thinking it’s headed down 20 points and then you’re a buyer in the high 20s? From your earlier post, I thought you were long SHAK. With P/E over 80, I’d be short as it sounds like you are.
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I’m already half a position in on my short there. The RSI gives me pause on my 2nd half. Assume an up 5-8% day is in the cards, when I get that, I fill the rest.

Their YoY comps were already poor, and that was before this. Their strategy of locating in touristy areas is gonna kill them now. If anyone has a reason they trade at a 30% premium with their earnings to CMG, I’m all ears, I just don’t see it, especially right now with their last earnings disaster and their locations. This should be a $10-$12 stock, imo. Don’t think it’ll get there, but mid 20s to low 30s seems like a reasonable spot where they could find buyers. I find it impossible to believe any institutional investors look at them, their PE in the 80s, and all things considered and chalk them up as a good investment right now. I’d look for liquidity to be pulled from there.

ZM, no matter anything makes sense to me as a high growth company, especially in an environment where we could be isolating from each other... Even without that, I see that as a good market to be in. Collectively, regardless of what happens in this market, I see this as a good long/short position right now. 

ETA: @siffoin curious on technicals on ZM. Since this virus became a concern, there is a very clear channel defined here. Would you put anything behind the ZM “Coronavirus channel” as I like to look at it? It’s only a 5 week channel.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Some piece of ####, broke into about 70 cars in my neighborhood overnight. This completely threw me off in the morning and def distracted me from maximizing profits.

https://i.imgur.com/FwyLU5e.png

He couldn't break mine (not like there is anything of value in the car), but there were about 5 streets littered with glass. Was talking to the cops, guy goes you're a big dude, better off if you catch him then us, he'll be out in 8 hours if we caught him. Bail reform #### in NY is a complete joke. Literally cause $50k of damage to 70 people and walk free in hours. 

But this def cost me like $5k, maybe more just from the distraction, plus the $1k to repair. ####### hate people!
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Did you move to New Orleans?

 
Options guys on CNBC pimping LMT. Makes a lot of sense to me. I may buy some on Monday (either stock or calls) if it doesn’t pop first thing in the morning.

 
Thinking of zagging and picking up some cruise stocks. Basically a 50% off sale right now. Royal Caribbean down to $65 from a 132 in January. Norwegian down to 26 from 58. Carnival as well. I can hold these for a While so short-term no worries about the hits. 

 
The Lost One said:
I've read that Zoom is gonna be huge, that's why I asked if anyone here was going in on it or was already bought in. 

I like Appian, fastly, Luckin Coffee, Stitch Fix and getting Disney now as well. Also want to grab Shopify. 
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I own three and should have paid attention to Luckin’s earnings call in November. Didn’t realize when it was and missed the pop. Disney and Stitch Fix (although I do have a lot of cloud/tech stocks that I think will actually do better now) are in my watch list. Disney is the one I’m maybe waiting longest on. The streaming will help but honestly, I’ve thought about cancelling Disney+. Not enough “new” stuff yet. I think unlike the others this environment does hurt them a lot. I see more downside near term.

 
Capella said:
Thinking of zagging and picking up some cruise stocks. Basically a 50% off sale right now. Royal Caribbean down to $65 from a 132 in January. Norwegian down to 26 from 58. Carnival as well. I can hold these for a While so short-term no worries about the hits. 
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any chance of these going completely under.?  Have no idea how well-backed these are.

 
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