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Sand said:
IMO if we bail out CCL every ship that is based in the US should be forced to have a US flag instead of a Bermuda flag.  That we bail out all these foreign boats astounds me.  The US doesn't get its fair share of taxes from any of these companies.

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As far as the rally today - cash is still king.  Sitting tight at about 80% cash.  
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I completely agree - but my take is they aren’t getting bailed out nor will they need too.  CCL has 4B of free cash on hand.  They can survive through next year with that.  

 
beef said:
If 2T can buy 2,000 DOW points, let's stamp out that quadrillion coin and all start wiping our butts with hundred dollar bills.  Solve this TP crisis once and for all!
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I think the Quad Coin is decades away. Gotta get some T Coins printed before we can start talking Quad Coins.

 
We aren't out of this by any stretch.  Italy Coronavirus cases have jumped up in the last 24 hours so that's obviously not close to being under control there.   Meanwhile USA is about to become the epicenter.

Just seems like everyone forgot what was happening in the world today.

We may get a little bump once that stimulus package is signed but that may be priced in already today.  Once the market sees it, all bets are off to the reaction, may or may not like it and then bad news is just around the corner.

Sorry to be Dr Negative but see no reason for optimism right now.  

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
We aren't out of this by any stretch.  Italy Coronavirus cases have jumped up in the last 24 hours so that's obviously not close to being under control there.   Meanwhile USA is about to become the epicenter.

Just seems like everyone forgot what was happening in the world today.

We may get a little bump once that stimulus package is signed but that may be priced in already today.  Once the market sees it, all bets are off to the reaction, may or may not like it and then bad news is just around the corner.

Sorry to be Dr Negative but see no reason for optimism right now.  
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I was just kidding. Sure we will end the week down. 

 
There are a ton of factors at play for sure, and I am keeping just about all of my cash on the sidelines.  

imho, the bump today had a lot more to do with the fed stabilizing markets more than the stimulus package.  It's pretty obvious that the fed and US gov't are going to unload all available options to keep our economy humming along, CO-VID 19 be damned.  That's good I suppose (until we have to pay those bills, but we can fight that argument another day). 

Stimulus package will be another bump for sure, but I see a lot of headwinds, I just haven't had time to delve too much into it yet.

I think we'll see some selling tomorrow.  Short term profits will be taken due to such an uncertain few months ahead.  Also, cash will be need to continue trading.  I've read about some hedge fund managers begging clients for cash to trade more.  And while I'm a it, I'm just thinking if we have 30% or so unemployment for a month or two, that's going to stop a lot of money going into 401K accounts and I'm not quite sure how much will flow back into it the rest of the year.  You need buyers to keep pushing markets upwards. And buyers need cash.

The massive swings day in and day out are still just so alarming to me.  There needs to be some more stability in the markets to give a greater sense of calm and rationality.  Yes big gains are great.  But we're not going from a bear market to a bull overnight here.  

Further, there is still just no way to calculate the prices of stocks without having zero knowledge of earnings.  I've seen GDP estimates ranging from 6% decline to 25-50% decline.  That's not just a rounding error ffs, that's a massive sign that no one has any ####### clue.

And now Trump is pushing for the all clear by Easter?  oof.  

I'm bullish still and haven't sold anything in a while, so obviously portfolio looks disgusting right now.  But not ready to call a bottom or damn close to one.  

The one individual stock I've bought some calls on is WMT.  Every day for the past 2 weeks has been like black Friday at their stores.  Sure, maybe not high dollar items, but they are constantly ringing the register and it's not like people don't buy crap that they don't need while they're there as well.  I'm completely stumped as to why this got thumped off some all time highs, but I am expecting them to break through again here in the next few weeks.  

 
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I think the problem for any of you buying is you aren’t watching enough Trump press conferences... Watch those, you’ll understand my mindset. He’s speaking right now, I watch them all.

 
What scares me is 2nd quarter numbers are going to be absolutely awful....is that really being baked in already? I doubt it. I’m going to continue to buy more than usual but not going to try to time and back the truck up on a certain date. 

 
Congrats to the longs today. I needed it.

This thread helped me buy both BA and DIS. For BA, I bought too early and averaged down twice - I’m up 1% now.

In Disney at 86. I can’t believe the hit MRK has taken, I’m loaded up on that one.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I think the problem for any of you buying is you aren’t watching enough Trump press conferences... Watch those, you’ll understand my mindset. He’s speaking right now, I watch them all.
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While you've been watching pressers, we've been helping each other make 40-60% gains in the market.  I left 40% in the market and I'm 3 tenths of a percent up over my account value on Jan 31 when the Dow was 28256 and now the Dow is at 20700 (only bought stocks long).  I'm now sitting on several stocks that I like over the longer term.  If the market goes down, I'll deploy some of the profits I took today and better position myself.  If this is the low water mark, then I'll be up by about 30% when we get back to Dow 28000.

There's big some hugely great advice in this thread.  Thanks to all of you!!!!

 
BassNBrew said:
While you've been watching pressers, we've been helping each other make 40-60% gains in the market.  I left 40% in the market and I'm 3 tenths of a percent up over my account value on Jan 31 when the Dow was 28256 and now the Dow is at 20700 (only bought stocks long).  I'm now sitting on several stocks that I like over the longer term.  If the market goes down, I'll deploy some of the profits I took today and better position myself.  If this is the low water mark, then I'll be up by about 30% when we get back to Dow 28000.

There's big some hugely great advice in this thread.  Thanks to all of you!!!!
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You missed my screenshot from earlier this month? It was basically the greatest short portfolio ever conceived. I covered most last week. Haven’t discussed it as it would probably anger others, but I gave my thoughts on what made it so great weeks ago and then kept quiet. Spoiler alert; my thesis was spot on.

 
So, I missed a good chance at some of these bargains.  The general thought is by the end of the week I will have another chance to get in on BA and some of these other thread favorites?

#bummed

 
ghostguy123 said:
They have been talking about that for days though, and it hasn't happened yet.  Just talk
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True.  I've seen others speculate it was a big short covering mixed in too.  For me, the "just talk" was politians playing politics and creating drama, but no doubt a deal would get done.  Yeah, 24 hours later and still close, but more details came out and you can get a better view of what the deal will be.  Whatever it was, Trip made a great call to buy in agressively.  

 
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Think we were just way oversold and were due a big bounce. Relief bill was the excuse. I fully expect us to at least retest the lows if not go lower. That said for those still in mostly cash and looking to get back in, be careful. When we do bottom, this is pretty much what it looks like. Huge jump off the bottom and people stay on the sidelines waiting, waiting, waiting to get back in at lower prices and they never do. That’s why I so recommend, as many others do here as well, buy at set levels on the way down, take the emotion out of it. You won’t catch the absolute bottom but you also won’t be left completely on the sideline either when things do improve. Just my two cents. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
Why did you think the market would go way up today?  I mean, I think a lot of people thought it would go up myself included, but why exactly were you calling for a huge day?
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Trump presser was a big deal...market begging for a reason to buy.   Also, Tuesdays have been good.  Also, positive stimulus news at night.   Also, Ackman news.  We had just tested 4 year low at 18.5K Dow

Too many plus datapoints impacting perception.

 
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I was expecting a big day today—like a gain in the 1000-1500 point range—but I’m not going to lie—I was not expecting a 2100 point rise.  Earlier in the thread—I mentioned that I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dow hit lows somewhere in the 15-16k range sometime this year—and that was based on me projecting stimulus packages in the neighborhood of 3 trillion. With the stimulus most likely being 4 trillion—which means the dollar will get watered down and almost artificially inflate the prices of nearly everything—I think I will adjust my prediction to the Dow hitting lows of somewhere in the 17-18k range sometime this year (assuming no effective treatment is found and distributed—as if this happens—it would be a complete game changer).   With that said—I don’t think the markets are going to just drop like a rock to those levels—there will be big good days mixed in with some big bad days.  

More than anything —the market needed a solid positive day—and we got one.  I almost wish it didn’t go up soo much as I think it actually makes forecasting the rest of this week rather difficult.  Had it only been up 1000-1500–i would have thought there would be room for it to gain another 500-800 points when the bill actually passes.  Now I’m not too sure. I lean towards thinking that the market will rise slightly more if you were to combine the next three trading days of the week—but if the bill is not passed by Friday—we could moderately give back some of todays gains. 

 
The Lost One said:
So you think Merck is at a great spot to jump in on?  Thoughts on BMY?

Looking at adding GLPI, MRK and possibly MGM if that dips.
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I like Merck here. Pharma is “recession proof” but does have political risk. Merck has growth drivers (beyond Keytruda) and no significant patents cliffs.

Less so BMY, they are going through the merger process (Celgene) and that can be tricky.

 
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Ted Lange as your Bartender said:
TTD just signed a big deal with TikTok.  Not saying they won’t go down again, but other things going on to mitigate long-term
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Brands are going to be worried about retaining head count in the short run, not buying advertising.   You can't underestimate how much these budgets are gonna get thrown out the window.

 
My opinion, economic crisis is over. Stocks have begun and will continue to rip up.

Doesn't matter about "earnings reports" ... Covid will be factored in and investors will disregard.

In these 15 days of quarantine, those that have the virus will show symptoms and get treatment vs spreading it unknowingly like what was happening last week.

Those that show no symptoms will return to work .... and we're back to business as usual.

Last chance for discount prices at the stock market. Yesterday was just the beginning of the comeback.

I'm about 50% back in and waiting for another dip for the rest. Maybe today.

 
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