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Apparently, China reported that 85%+ of patients who were on a "mechanical ventilator" died. Will the US have the same fatality rate? Hopefully lower but this study will be very illuminating. 228 patients will be injected with leronlimab and 114 with a placebo.
I'm just worried that people are accepting that quarantine times are going to last into summer. Sit down dining will be one of the last things people return to.
Ugh, of course the ones I would have sold yesterday are the ones down the most and the ones I’m interested in getting at a lower price aren’t down as much. Going to have to see how it progresses to see what I want to sell. I’m about 30% cash in my IRA and only 10% in my brokerage account. That said the brokerage has my AMZN, some CYDY and my ZM so it’s held up better and those plus cash are about 70% of that account anyway. Let’s see if we get a push back closer to even later. I definitely would like a bit more cash though because I think things aren’t going to go up for a bit. Even more positive news from vaccines and treatments is still going to take a bit to find out.
Any idea if those BLMN places are doing take out? Outback, Carraba's & Bonefish Grill?
Wish I was man enough to move 100% into TLT yesterday. Usually my instincts are wrong. Kostanza. But I was pretty sure we sell off at 1st of month, even though the first week of the month is usually good. Went back to other sell offs to look at them even though this one is totally different. Sometimes down 1st day of month, only to rally the next few days. There are articles on it out there.
https://investors.bloominbrands.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bloomin-brands-leveraging-carry-out-and-delivery-service
Took a quick look at their websites right now and all of them are promoting carryout & delivery.
They probably have enough takeout and delivery business to keep their cooks employed. Waitstaff are expendable but no restaurant wants to lose their kitchen staff. But the rest of the following article makes it sound like Bloomin' Brands isn't in that great of a financial position.
I remember when that POS first arrived. i lost everytime i messed with it. That was years back and that damn thing would move like crazy.
Seems like gambling. What is the erosion over the next month if we drop 20% and the come back 20%?
Yeah, I mean they just drew the rest of their revolver and only have $400mn of cash. Coming into the year, they had ~$500mn in obligations due although $200mn of it was purchase obligations which I presume is buying food. Not sure how sticky those contracts are but presume they can still use some of the food at least. Had ~$180mn in leases and $60mn in debt/interest payments. So liquidity looks a bit tight. Only upside is their debt is all bank debt and much easier to waive a covenant with banks than with bond holders.
Cheesecake Factory is in a better financial situation and it does well with it's takeout business. And people loooove the Cheesecake Factory so it'll be fine in the long term.
Yep. If we close today and I dump my TLT and my inflation protected fund, roll it into the S&P or a SCI-TECH fund, I'll gain over 3% vs the NAZ and S&P.
I'm not a believer in Bloomin brands--but then again--I'd have a hard time betting on any mid-priced restaurant chains whose primary buisness is historically dependent on people coming into eat at their restaurants. Let's face it--the chains owned by this brand are not generally the kinds of places that the relatively unaffected super wealthy are going to patron. A lot of the client base for these types of restaurants are going go be people who have been laid off, furloughed, and financially impacted in a very negative way. A lot of middle class people are not going to be in position to drop $80-150 for a family of four during this thing--or even for a while after we get past this virus. Unless somebody is looking to buy for for an outlook of the next few years--I wouldn't be in a hurry to get into this one. That's just my two cents.
I like Outback. It's a decent steak at a decent price. It should be fine in the long term, too.
I agree in general with that spot. I'm short EAT. Probably would have shorted BLMN too. Also short PENN, regional casino for similar reasons. Middle class going to get smoked here and discretionary income going out the window. So you're looking at 2-3 months of cash burn followed by a recession.
Our Cheesecake Factory always is full up and seemed to be doing a good curbside when I went by a week or so ago. One of our local places just announced they are closing this morning. Rents are due today, it's going to get really hard on the local restaurant owners. Sadly I think you're going to see a huge contraction in small locally owned restaurants escalate as these rent dates come due.
A crazy high percentage of locally owned restaurants are going to go out of business. It will mean more business in the long run for those that do survive.
Haven't played it or FAZ in years and no plans to now. I do a play other 3x'ers because I'm stupid and like to gamble. Just not comfortable gambling on financials right now.
Darden has resisted having 3rd party delivery which will hurt during this crisis. And I've always thought that Olive Garden is low quality. Restaurants, in general, are getting better. It wouldn't be surprising if people start going to Olive Garden a lot less in the future. People even get heckled for being a basic ##### when they go there. It is where people with no taste go when they want to go somewhere "fancy". I can't invest in a company where I don't believe in their product. I haven't been to any of the other Darden restaurants so I might be overgeneralizing based solely on the Olive Garden.
Applebee's people get heckled also. BLMN is a good buy because it has the best chance of that group to do a 2x, 3x, 4x because of its low price right now. Texas Roadhouse is down only 50%.
I am being patient but am tempted to add some high quality names at this level. I think I will wait until later today to see what direction this goes.
Applebee's is another restaurant where it wouldn't surprise me if they were out of business in 10 years. They've kept the same prices for 20 years while continually lowering food quality. Why would anyone pay $10-$20 for fast food quality just to have a server (who you have to tip)?
I know of 3 that closed over the past 10 years in the Raleigh area. One only opened about 5 years ago.
6.37 here 
