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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
djmich
Footballguy
They've been running up for the past few weeks. Figured out the world not ending and we've got the biggest stimulus package in the history of the solar system behind us.
I recall a prior post stating that the rise could stall at 2750. Might get a chance to test that hypothesis today.
[icon]
Insoxicated
So for all you guys heavy in cash like me, at what DOW level to you admit you screwed up and put you money back in? What DOW level are we hoping for to get back in? I assume the thought of DOW 15000 to 18000 is now totally off the table?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I saw a stat last night that yesterday was the 5th biggest move up in the last 87 years. And that two more of the top 5 were in the last month. If you miss those big express elevators up, I think you already screwed up.
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BigJohn
Footballguy
Steeler
Footballguy
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Al Czervik
Not wearing pants
Can you copy/paste the text here? Link takes me to TD Ameritrade login page.
BigJohn
Footballguy
I can't answer that question for you but I will tell you a story. Several years ago when the market was going through a rocky period, I was chatting with a friend in the investment industry, pretty smart guy, about pulling money out of the market because I was nervous about a big fall and he asked me 'But when will you put it back in?". I think about that a lot.
Yup...Worse thing you can do is be on the outside looking in. My problem is that common sense is telling me that earnings are going to be a disaster and the housing market is teetering on collapse and unemployment is getting worse every day.
Polish Hammer
made of glass
For a smaller company, does cutting the sales force in half do much to the stock price? Or is that topically not really much of a needle mover?
the moops
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Wish I knew the Saudis buying a few % of Carnival would shoot it up 75% in a day. Sheesh
sporthenry
Footballguy
Well I mean how screwed you are partially depends on when you moved to cash. If you moved to cash when the DOW was at 25,000, you are still theoretically outperforming. If you moved when it was at 23,000 you’re flat. And from a risk-adjusted returns perspective, you’d technically be outperforming despite missing this local bottom.
The other thing to acknowledge is this is where looking at daily returns gets misleading. A 5% up day does not equal a 5% down day. The Dow lost what, 38% which would require a 60% return from the lows. So I think you have to be careful not to get sucked into seeing the big moves.
For me, it’s not a special number though. It’s when we get some certainty on the virus. At this point, the risks outweigh the reward for me. Some money managers said they’d buy when new cases slowed and perhaps that is what we’re seeing. Maybe it works out but these are the same people that shrugged off the virus for weeks. The curve flattening is good but I’m also of the belief that, to steal a recent finance term, this means lower for longer. Lower infections but longer lockdown. The reason I don’t trust a lot of insider buying is because the only people who really know, the scientists are quick to point out that they don’t even really know. The market seems to be pricing in a relatively quick restart of the economy and we haven’t even see the destruction from high leverage in the system yet.
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Todem
Footballguy
Own and operate amusements parks and resorts in North America and Canada.
Cedar Fair is one of their most popular in Ohio. These parks are for those who do not want to or have the ability to mortgage their home for dream vacations to Disney. (being sarcastic but true to an extent). They have some amazing parks (and some water parks) though. Very old school flair.
Extremely high return on equity, the real estate assets are the real draw for me as well as the strong dividend. Now obviously....they are a stressed stock (travel and leisure).
They will be a survivor once we start living normally again. They have been destroyed in this downturn.
In the meantime this rally we are in is simply setting us up for another leg down. How low we go again? The longer this goes the better chance we do not get to the March 23rd lows......but a 10% sell off can happen in a snap of a finger as we all have seen. The shorts are going to come in as early as today......buckle up....this roller coaster is still early in the ride. You know how roller coasters have that one massive drop.....I think we saw that.....but then you get other drops, twists and turns......we are in that phase of where we are setting up the secondary drop as the coaster climbs up again (but not the same climb as it did for the big drop).
Hope that visual helps. Don’t let you guards down. And be ready to buy again if you have any cash sitting around.
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arrow1
Footballguy
One thing someone pointed out in the Covid thread is concerning. The US was way behind on the testing curve but we are now out testing everyone. We could still be on the upswing of this virus growing but it's being masked the testing catching up. I also have the same concern that you do that slowing this down prolongs the time we need to be shut down.
identikit
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Man In The Box
Footballguy
Not necessarily market related since I have no idea how this would affect it, but the thing keeping me up at night the most is us opening up the economy too early and a second outbreak happening. We need a quick, reliable test to see who has had the virus already, and need to figure out how immune those people are going forward. So many tentacles to this thing. Crazy times.
Todem
Footballguy
Hope your right. But market experience tells me this is too early to think all is well. And I am probably one of the biggest bulls on this board. FACT.
You are being way too naive about this. There is some serious damage happening that will have effects on the economy and the markets are having an extremely difficult time pricing it in. That is why you are seeing this incredible volatility.
For when you drop almost 40% from the top......that is called a bear market. If you think we are going back to Dow 29,000 this year.....wow. Come on. Things are simply not flipping back on full steam ahead in May, June, July. This will be a moderate recession and I feel a full recovery is very possible mid to end of 2022. Thats being optimistic and realistic.
And we did not miss opportunities at all. We bought in on the 16th, 18th and 23rd and then did some side trades for myself only with BLMN, MGM and TXRH. We are doing just fine.
But this is the kind of post that screams.......out of touch with reality. Come on man. The entire country is freaking shut down and will remain this way for another 3.5 weeks easy. The medical experts still do not have a 100% grasp on this thing. People are not going to run to ball parks and concerts and cruises and planes June 1st. Restaurants? Well I think that is the first dip in the pool hence why I am so bullish on good restaurant stocks because they can set up tables with distance and follow social distancing practices along with people and I believe people will want to go out to eat.....once we open up the economy somewhat in May/June.
We are truly dealing with an unprecedented event. The markets are still uncertain and will we retest the absolute bottom of March 23rd? It seems more unlikely each passing week we don’t but don’t think for a second we are just on a straight shot back to the levels we were at before this happened. We have a long way to go. And more legs down will happen and we will be going sideways for a little while.
That is why you invest in great dividend stocks. They will keep paying and compounding while you go through a recession/sideways bear market until the new bull starts. And we will come out of this and we will have another glorious bull market. But your take is flawed.
Yes Covid 19 is the culprit. But the fact we had to shutdown the economy will end up doing far more damage than the actual virus. And I do not mean to be insensitive to the loss of life.....because that is tragic and can't be understated. But he economic hardship, depression and damage of the massive job loss (however temporary it may end up being...or not) is going to be even greater. That is going to effect more Americans than the actual virus will end up effecting (we hope and pray).
So to summarize. I don’t agree about the great opportunities we had when the market plummeted. We agree there. And we took advantage. But the rate of the market recovery we are far apart. It won’t be as easy as 1-2-3 as our esteemed President thinks. Not that simple.
Year end we will be in a much better place. But these next 7-8 months will be very hard for a lot of people and that will have an impact on the financial markets.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
I don't know but I'm trying to decide when to sell TZA
Thankfully it's just my Roth getting hurt, the other accounts are all rolling along until the bear gets hungry again.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I will be completely shocked if things open up in a month. I see zero chance of that.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Yeah, peaking of cases doesn't equate to reduction. I remember one person saying the real turn is when more people recover than are getting it on a daily basis. We still don't have enough tests to know who has it or who had it. Heck, we don't even know if you're immune from getting it again. If people start getting reinfected, then I'd go actively short the market. As it is now, we're just trying to get this under control. I presume they're working on a plan to figure out how to slowly open it back up but that has to include rampant testing. While scientists are likely going to be conservative, both Fauci and Gates say things don't go back to normal without a vaccine. So what does a US economy look like without a vaccine and social distancing rules?
gruecd
Footballguy
Read a note from a PM this morning: "If we extrapolate the timeline for NYC, outbreaks should peak in the next two weeks, and the country shortly thereafter. Much of the U.S. economy should be re-opened by mid to late June."
gruecd
Footballguy
Random
Footballguy
gruecd
Footballguy
This is the exact reason why you don't try to time the market. Even if you get it "right" and sell before it hits the bottom, you still need to figure out when to get back in. And people VERY rarely get it right.
-OZ-
Footballguy
It just sold off too much earlier last week. Bank plus credit card probably scared some people, now it's rebounding.
gruecd
Footballguy
All I can say is that the market is a leading indicator. It's not worried about what's happening NOW, but rather what it anticipates happening down the road...
Todem
Footballguy
2750 on the S&P 500 is proving to be a very tough ceiling to break thru here in the short term. I think the market is finding it’s trading range on the upside and the bottom.
So my expectation is the markets to test the lower waters at some point again. Because again......I just can’t see a V shaped recovery when you have the entire country on shut down right now. I just can’t.
If your trading this market this is a good day to sell and reset and get ready to buy again on a down leg.
If you are a long term investor and you have some cash...buy the big dips.
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