Stock Thread (44 Viewers)

[sporthenry]

The reason I asked is because you really didn't know. You got lucky and that's great. Just like when to put money back in. You won't know the correct time. Hopefully you get lucky again.

I mean some of this is luck but also the same people that are saying don't time the market, are usually in here trying to time the market, just in different respects. When I talk about this stuff, I'm not moving my portfolio around from 100% invested or even more to 100% cash but just weightings. I haven't been completely in cash for the past few years but I wasn't putting as much as I could to work as the markets ran up, just leaving what I had in there. I missed some of that upside but again, the recent S&P low would have set you back to January 2017. Now we're back at levels seen in late 2018. So sure I may have missed this recent upswing but that $1 I could have invested in October 2018 would be worth $1 today (maybe a little more with dividend reinvested). 

ETA: I know I'm cherry picking data. But unless you are dollar cost averaging to a very strict policy and were 100% invested, you're also timing the markets in some respect. And if you do that, probably no need to be here unless you want to rebalance some positions. 

 

[General Malaise]

We lost a guy in the old Bitcoin thread. Dude was early, way before the 20k run up, but got involved in some awful web site that was trying to be a marketplace. I assume he took a huge bath on that and then missed the huge run up. I don't know if it's true, but there were some posts that he was LHUCKS, the guy who called the top before the S&P went on to triple. He was definitely on the short side, so him not posting in here might indicate that he's taken it in the shorts.

@fantasycurse42 has gone on long, extended breaks from this site before.  I'm sure he'll be back.  

 

[Payne]

How did you know when was the right time to pull the money? 

I don't feel I got lucky at all. To me, it was common sense. We saw China and Europe. As soon as it was about to hit the US, I pulled out knowing darn well panic would set in and it did. What I don't understand is how people DIDN'T get out. Who didn't see it coming? 

My question was always when to get back in. I didn't think it was quite time yet. Numbers still growing, unemployment extremely high, etc.

But I was shocked to see it was at 24 today and now I am questioning if now is the time or do we have another hiccup or two coming.

 

[Wooderson]

I don't feel I got lucky at all. To me, it was common sense. We saw China and Europe. As soon as it was about to hit the US, I pulled out knowing darn well panic would set in and it did. What I don't understand is how people DIDN'T get out. Who didn't see it coming? 

My question was always when to get back in. I didn't think it was quite time yet. Numbers still growing, unemployment extremely high, etc.

But I was shocked to see it was at 24 today and now I am questioning if now is the time or do we have another hiccup or two coming.

I'll give you credit you saw it coming when many did not. So I would use that same instinct to get back in at the right time. 

 

[kevzilla]

I can play Scalp or Be Scalped for a little while longer.

Welp, I have a pretty good-sized flap now. Thinking about doubling down. Come get some, cowboy.

 

[Todem]

Is she nibbling in it here? Love how they’re all usually ultra long but still find cash to nibble on stuff. 

LOL!!!! Exactly. Always nibbling. Always seem to have cash around....yeah from selling losers. A lot of these CNBC regulars are average at best fund managers. I learned over the last 15 years who to listen to. She is clearly not one of them.

Remember Meg Whitman? She gave me the all buy in signal on the muni market......that was awesome. She basically said the entire muni market is going to fail. It may be the single worst market call I ever heard in my life. 

And of course we have Rubini. It called the 2008 credit/finace crash.....been calling for it for 15 years....LOL. A blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while and a broken clock is right two times a day. 

So many frauds out there freaking everyone out. 

 

[Todem]

I mean some of this is luck but also the same people that are saying don't time the market, are usually in here trying to time the market, just in different respects. When I talk about this stuff, I'm not moving my portfolio around from 100% invested or even more to 100% cash but just weightings. I haven't been completely in cash for the past few years but I wasn't putting as much as I could to work as the markets ran up, just leaving what I had in there. I missed some of that upside but again, the recent S&P low would have set you back to January 2017. Now we're back at levels seen in late 2018. So sure I may have missed this recent upswing but that $1 I could have invested in October 2018 would be worth $1 today (maybe a little more with dividend reinvested). 

ETA: I know I'm cherry picking data. But unless you are dollar cost averaging to a very strict policy and were 100% invested, you're also timing the markets in some respect. And if you do that, probably no need to be here unless you want to rebalance some positions. 

I don’t time markets per say. But I have to have entry points when I purchase individual stocks. And also exit points if I feel like a company is simply way overvalued and their moat is narrowing or going away. That is about as much timing I do. I am a long term buy and hold kind of portfolio manager. But we tax harvest year end when we can...rebalance to asset allocation targets up to twice a year in Qualified accounts and once a year max in non qualified (taxable) accounts. 

Being a money manger I have many different dynamics for many different goals and risk tolerances.

My own personal account? I am 100% equites and I do build cash at the end of each year (anywhere from 5-30%) with tax harvesting or profit taking. I am on average...80%-85% invested always in my taxable accounts and 100% in my IRA/401K’s I have never....ever liquidated my 401K or IRA to cash....ever. I simply have rebalanced on massive downturns. 

 

[Don Hutson]

I'm reading on another message board that Nader did an interview today on OANN and said that CytoDyn is ordering an additional 1,000,000 vials of leronlimab.

 

[Capella]

FC is still around, he was posting last week. He bailed out of NYC to avoid the Rona. 

 

[McBokonon]

I'm reading on another message board that Nader did an interview today on OANN and said that they are making 1,000,000 vials of leronlimab.

Hope so. Since FOX News became too granola for Trump he's been watching that channel more and more. Hopefully he'll tweet incessantly about it.

 

[Don't Noonan]

I am 46 years old and I have always been 100% invested in stocks in my 401k.  As I get closer to retirement this will change and I will gradually get more conservative.

This has served me well so far.  In the last market cycle, March 9, 2009 to March 23, 2020 an all equity portfolio returned 316%.  A 60/40 equity/bonds portfolio returned 236% over that same time period.  7.24% more per year in earnings being 100% in stock.

 

[Jobber]

FC is still around, he was posting last week. He bailed out of NYC to avoid the Rona. 

Yeah I think some dooshers gave him heat for doing that. Figured he's just laying off this thread for a while because of that.

 

[Bossman]

I'll give you credit you saw it coming when many did not. So I would use that same instinct to get back in at the right time. 

I also got out ... maybe a week too late...

and my instinct is now telling me to get back in ... three weeks ago.

So now I sit and watch it rocket up with my $$ on the sidelines and my palms all sweaty and junk.

While the so called "experts" as well as folks in here saying "bear rally",  "we haven't seen the bottom". Please stop. 

 

[-OZ-]

... you're making my point sir.

Not many folks want to believe the bear market ended ... what with the body count .. and all of the small business closures and such.

... and I believe 20% is where they consider it to be a "Bull market". Strange that people will not concede.

Yeah, but bulls make way for bears and vice versa. 

Same here but it hasn't filled, and it's creeping up and away from that.

Filled. And I've already made 6¢

 

[-OZ-]

I also got out ... maybe a week too late...

and my instinct is now telling me to get back in ... three weeks ago.

So now I sit and watch it rocket up with my $$ on the sidelines and my palms all sweaty and junk.

While the so called "experts" as well as folks in here saying "bear rally",  "we haven't seen the bottom". Please stop. 

 Literally the only things I know with any "certainty"

1. I won't be using my retirement funds for over 15 years.

2. I don't know the future.

3. We have a safety net. 

Therefore I'm practically 100% in equities for retirement. 

 

[lod001]

Mancini - Excellent upside follow through for $SPX and tracking my weekend chart. Daily RSI(5) though is quite overbought and back at February levels already. Pullback likely this week (note-this doesnt mean top).Ideal zone to shorts/reduce longs between 2880-2930 if hit for a good dip.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Jojo the circus boy?

GB Alias

 

[[icon]]

So honest question here.
 

We're rapidly approaching Oct 2019 S&P 500 numbers here. When the economy contracts 20...30% over the next quarter, we seriously think the market is just going to "meh" it off and keep rolling? 
 

 

[The Ref]

Mancini - Excellent upside follow through for $SPX and tracking my weekend chart. Daily RSI(5) though is quite overbought and back at February levels already. Pullback likely this week (note-this doesnt mean top).Ideal zone to shorts/reduce longs between 2880-2930 if hit for a good dip.

I’m holding overnight based on Mancini - which is fine considering I’m up 6% today becuase if the buys he inspired.

 

[Todem]

I also got out ... maybe a week too late...

and my instinct is now telling me to get back in ... three weeks ago.

So now I sit and watch it rocket up with my $$ on the sidelines and my palms all sweaty and junk.

While the so called "experts" as well as folks in here saying "bear rally",  "we haven't seen the bottom". Please stop. 

That’s your fault. Not ours. 

 

[lod001]

I’m holding overnight based on Mancini - which is fine considering I’m up 6% today becuase if the buys he inspired.

I moved 66% into a high yield bond fund. Not sure that is the right move. Kept 33% in a fund that outperforms the S&P but not the NAZ. 

The plan is to move into a money market if keep going higher. This can't continue. Right now the market is saying that the virus will end within 6 months and everyone will be right back at work. I most certainly could be wrong but I don't see it. 

 

[lod001]

That’s your fault. Not ours. 

I'm not a so called 'Expert' but I play one on Footballguys.

 

[Nick Vermeil]

That’s your fault. Not ours. 

"FBG stock thread ruined my retirement!"

 

[Todem]

So honest question here.
 

We're rapidly approaching Oct 2019 S&P 500 numbers here. When the economy contracts 20...30% over the next quarter, we seriously think the market is just going to "meh" it off and keep rolling? 
 

No. I don’t. But the thing that is incredibly muddier is “how long will the recovery will take”. 

A V recovery IMO is not happening. How can that happen? A U shaped recovery is very likely and I fully expect that. But we are going to go back down again. We can’t keep going up in this line when we are heading into a recession.....a self induced recession which is still incredible to think about. 

 

[-OZ-]

No. I don’t. But the thing that is incredibly muddier is “how long will the recovery will take”. 

A V recovery IMO is not happening. How can that happen? A U shaped recovery is very likely and I fully expect that. But we are going to go back down again. We can’t keep going up in this line when we are heading into a recession.....a self induced recession which is still incredible to think about. 

I'm leaning W. Mostly because I think we'll feel it in the fall.

 

[General Malaise]

So honest question here.
 

We're rapidly approaching Oct 2019 S&P 500 numbers here. When the economy contracts 20...30% over the next quarter, we seriously think the market is just going to "meh" it off and keep rolling? 
 

I liked this from one of our letters that went out today....

It is fashionable to cite the market as a discounting mechanism, but it sure wasn’t discounting a pandemic a couple months ago – we have noted on many occasions that predicting market moves is tantamount to guessing with an ego, and further, flawless market timing invariably occurs only at cocktail parties.

 

[General Malaise]

No. I don’t. But the thing that is incredibly muddier is “how long will the recovery will take”. 

A V recovery IMO is not happening. How can that happen? A U shaped recovery is very likely and I fully expect that. But we are going to go back down again. We can’t keep going up in this line when we are heading into a recession.....a self induced recession which is still incredible to think about. 

Maybe a W.....hopefully not an M.....

I think you nailed it in the Mortgage thread and I've been incredibly nervous about it as a guy who just refinanced....I think housing market takes a big hit.  Lending standards tightening, unemployment soaring, what other conclusion is there to draw?  That's going to be a major impediment to a recovery that looks like a V or even a U.

 

[Todem]

"FBG stock thread ruined my retirement!"

Yeah......it is about that time for me to check out of here. I don’t want to listen to the whiners who beated their chest that they got out and never got back in..what do I do..when do I get back in. I mean I never got “out” other than 30% in cash I had......I am down 11% YTD in my own portfolio. And I did not have to wonder #### I missed getting back in. That is why......you never sell into this.....you will lose. Because you won’t get back in. You will be frozen in fear. If you had your ear marked for reitrement in 15,20 years.....WTF are you doing?

I can’t help you. My clients never got out. I never got out. 

So now.....I am out.

Good luck everyone. Stay positive. We will get through this and prosper on the other side. 

My best picks were listed way back on....March 16th? Use that for yourself. 

Best of luck to all of you.....see you in the fun threads like......the video game thread. That is where I will go hang again. I think I have really helped as much as I can in here. And I really enjoyed it. And my welcome is now worn out.

Peace everyone!!

 

[Todem]

I'm leaning W. Mostly because I think we'll feel it in the fall.

I can easily get onboard with a W and that is very much in the cards. Ether way....we will recover and we will prosper. 

All the best guys and gals. 

 

[General Malaise]

I can easily get onboard with a W and that is very much in the cards. Ether way....we will recover and we will prosper. 

All the best guys and gals. 

Wish you wouldn't leave.  This thread is MUCH better with you in it.  But I do understand....good luck, man.

 

[GoBirds]

Yeah......it is about that time for me to check out of here. I don’t want to listen to the whiners who beated their chest that they got out and never got back in..what do I do..when do I get back in. I mean I never got “out” other than 30% in cash I had......I am down 11% YTD in my own portfolio. And I did not have to wonder #### I missed getting back in. That is why......you never sell into this.....you will lose. Because you won’t get back in. You will be frozen in fear. If you had your ear marked for reitrement in 15,20 years.....WTF are you doing?

I can’t help you. My clients never got out. I never got out. 

So now.....I am out.

Good luck everyone. Stay positive. We will get through this and prosper on the other side. 

My best picks were listed way back on....March 16th? Use that for yourself. 

Best of luck to all of you.....see you in the fun threads like......the video game thread. That is where I will go hang again. I think I have really helped as much as I can in here. And I really enjoyed it. And my welcome is now worn out.

Peace everyone!!

Appreciate the input in this thread and being the one reasonable voice in the cesspool version, hope you pop back in when you can. 

 

[[icon]]

Yeah......it is about that time for me to check out of here. I don’t want to listen to the whiners who beated their chest that they got out and never got back in..what do I do..when do I get back in. I mean I never got “out” other than 30% in cash I had......I am down 11% YTD in my own portfolio. And I did not have to wonder #### I missed getting back in. That is why......you never sell into this.....you will lose. Because you won’t get back in. You will be frozen in fear. If you had your ear marked for reitrement in 15,20 years.....WTF are you doing?

I can’t help you. My clients never got out. I never got out. 

So now.....I am out.

Good luck everyone. Stay positive. We will get through this and prosper on the other side. 

My best picks were listed way back on....March 16th? Use that for yourself. 

Best of luck to all of you.....see you in the fun threads like......the video game thread. That is where I will go hang again. I think I have really helped as much as I can in here. And I really enjoyed it. And my welcome is now worn out.

Peace everyone!!

Todem wait! 
 

Seriously, why would you leave? I'm confused? You're one of the most liked/valued posters in here. 

 

[Capella]

Yeah......it is about that time for me to check out of here. I don’t want to listen to the whiners who beated their chest that they got out and never got back in..what do I do..when do I get back in. I mean I never got “out” other than 30% in cash I had......I am down 11% YTD in my own portfolio. And I did not have to wonder #### I missed getting back in. That is why......you never sell into this.....you will lose. Because you won’t get back in. You will be frozen in fear. If you had your ear marked for reitrement in 15,20 years.....WTF are you doing?

I can’t help you. My clients never got out. I never got out. 

So now.....I am out.

Good luck everyone. Stay positive. We will get through this and prosper on the other side. 

My best picks were listed way back on....March 16th? Use that for yourself. 

Best of luck to all of you.....see you in the fun threads like......the video game thread. That is where I will go hang again. I think I have really helped as much as I can in here. And I really enjoyed it. And my welcome is now worn out.

Peace everyone!!

Wait what? What happened?

 

[lod001]

Yeah......it is about that time for me to check out of here. I don’t want to listen to the whiners who beated their chest that they got out and never got back in..what do I do..when do I get back in. I mean I never got “out” other than 30% in cash I had......I am down 11% YTD in my own portfolio. And I did not have to wonder #### I missed getting back in. That is why......you never sell into this.....you will lose. Because you won’t get back in. You will be frozen in fear. If you had your ear marked for reitrement in 15,20 years.....WTF are you doing?

I can’t help you. My clients never got out. I never got out. 

So now.....I am out.

Good luck everyone. Stay positive. We will get through this and prosper on the other side. 

My best picks were listed way back on....March 16th? Use that for yourself. 

Best of luck to all of you.....see you in the fun threads like......the video game thread. That is where I will go hang again. I think I have really helped as much as I can in here. And I really enjoyed it. And my welcome is now worn out.

Peace everyone!!

Dude, no. Stick around. I like reading your posts.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I also got out ... maybe a week too late...

and my instinct is now telling me to get back in ... three weeks ago.

So now I sit and watch it rocket up with my $$ on the sidelines and my palms all sweaty and junk.

While the so called "experts" as well as folks in here saying "bear rally",  "we haven't seen the bottom". Please stop. 

way to ruin a good thread

 

[-OZ-]

. And my welcome is now worn out.

Nope. 

All opinions are welcome

Fwiw, I'm only "playing" with like 3-5% of my assets.  I think most are doing similarly.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Maybe a W.....hopefully not an M.....

I think you nailed it in the Mortgage thread and I've been incredibly nervous about it as a guy who just refinanced....I think housing market takes a big hit.  Lending standards tightening, unemployment soaring, what other conclusion is there to draw?  That's going to be a major impediment to a recovery that looks like a V or even a U.

What about a Z? That would be cool. Going back in time for awhile. 

 

[McBokonon]

Yeah......it is about that time for me to check out of here. I don’t want to listen to the whiners who beated their chest that they got out and never got back in..what do I do..when do I get back in. I mean I never got “out” other than 30% in cash I had......I am down 11% YTD in my own portfolio. And I did not have to wonder #### I missed getting back in. That is why......you never sell into this.....you will lose. Because you won’t get back in. You will be frozen in fear. If you had your ear marked for reitrement in 15,20 years.....WTF are you doing?

I can’t help you. My clients never got out. I never got out. 

So now.....I am out.

Good luck everyone. Stay positive. We will get through this and prosper on the other side. 

My best picks were listed way back on....March 16th? Use that for yourself. 

Best of luck to all of you.....see you in the fun threads like......the video game thread. That is where I will go hang again. I think I have really helped as much as I can in here. And I really enjoyed it. And my welcome is now worn out.

Peace everyone!!

Dude it's like one guy and a post by :looks at notes:....Bossman

 

[BassNBrew]

Yeah......it is about that time for me to check out of here. I don’t want to listen to the whiners who beated their chest that they got out and never got back in..what do I do..when do I get back in. I mean I never got “out” other than 30% in cash I had......I am down 11% YTD in my own portfolio. And I did not have to wonder #### I missed getting back in. That is why......you never sell into this.....you will lose. Because you won’t get back in. You will be frozen in fear. If you had your ear marked for reitrement in 15,20 years.....WTF are you doing?

I can’t help you. My clients never got out. I never got out. 

So now.....I am out.

Good luck everyone. Stay positive. We will get through this and prosper on the other side. 

My best picks were listed way back on....March 16th? Use that for yourself. 

Best of luck to all of you.....see you in the fun threads like......the video game thread. That is where I will go hang again. I think I have really helped as much as I can in here. And I really enjoyed it. And my welcome is now worn out.

Peace everyone!!

Maybe continue to try to help them?  

Most of us enjoy your posts. It’s good to read the thoughts of a pro. 

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

this is no different than a wagering thread where some guy posts his plays/leans and then guys who follow along but lose a few start whining about it until nobody with any useful information is willing to share anything.

@Todem think you should consider ignoring him. it's just venting.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I liked this from one of our letters that went out today....

It is fashionable to cite the market as a discounting mechanism, but it sure wasn’t discounting a pandemic a couple months ago – we have noted on many occasions that predicting market moves is tantamount to guessing with an ego, and further, flawless market timing invariably occurs only at cocktail parties.

A lot of jackasses making me look like a liar so I never bring such things up in polite company.  <_<

 

[The Ref]

+1 on the wish @Todem would stay 

feel like everyone brings something to the table and you certinaly have and then some.

dont let the words of others discourage you.  Everyone (should) know there are risks involved.  The game is the game.

 

[The Ref]

this is no different than a wagering thread where some guy posts his plays/leans and then guys who follow along but lose a few start whining about it until nobody with any useful information is willing to share anything.

@Todem think you should consider ignoring him. it's just venting.

Really great analogy 

 

[-OZ-]

this is no different than a wagering thread where some guy posts his plays/leans and then guys who follow along but lose a few start whining about it until nobody with any useful information is willing to share anything.

@Todem think you should consider ignoring him. it's just venting.

No different? 

This absolutely is a wagering thread.

 

[SFBayDuck]

(Heading over to video game thread to get my stock advice......)

 

[Nick Vermeil]

(Heading over to video game thread to get my stock advice......)

Invest heavily in bells imo.  

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

No different? 

This absolutely is a wagering thread.

right, but it sucks when a vocal minority (or one person in this case I guess) chase off people who are sharing useful/helpful information and ruin things for everybody else.

 

[-OZ-]

right, but it sucks when a vocal minority (or one person in this case I guess) chase off people who are sharing useful/helpful information and ruin things for everybody else.

I must be pretty good at ignoring things. But yeah, nobody should be attacking others here or feeling unwanted. To make another analogy, it's like my family.  Maybe a bit of fighting, but at the end of the day it's all love. Or should be anyway, when Johnny starts acting a fool he gets put in his place, then gets a hug from Mom.

 

[-OZ-]

Invest heavily in bells imo.  

Cowbell?

 

[Nick Vermeil]

Cowbell?

Someone needs to buy Animal Crossing.