ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hey all, which stocks require mass gatherings of people that would take a dump if those types of activities are banned until the end of the year or until there is a vaccine?
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Stock Thread (27 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
cosjobs
Footballguy
But it penetrates the skin.
I'm just saying it was a stupid way of saying it. If it was intradermal or subcutaneous, that's what they should have said. Most of us understand big words.
Todem
Footballguy
Dude I am not going to make this a political discussion. We were not prepared. I think that is obvious.
And if we cannot talk about death rates....then are we really having real discussions about when it is time to get going again? You don’t think I have taken every precaution possible for my family and myself? My sister in-law is super high risk...super. She can’t leave the house till their is a true vaccine. But a lot of us can and will soon.
These are hard questions and numbers that have to be dealt with. Politically correct has no place in a discussion like this. At least I am being real about the entire thing. Not worrying about being insensitive right at this moment.
If you think for a second I am talking in a tone of killing off people your out of your mind. I am talking about natural selection which takes place every single day of our lives.
Get over yourself.
If you think 300 plus million American are going to just stay locked down for months.....you are delusional. We are going to have to learn to live with this thing very soon and do the best we can. Again get real. And I could care less what problem you have with my statement. I had the balls to say what some won’t. It is going to be like any virus we have and are living with (this one is a mother ****er). I hope and pray it does not affect me or my family or friends....but we don’t really control that much do we? Unless of course we just live in a bubble, stay locked down and let the entire country crumble which it will...no doubt. Which is not happening.
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Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Good one. Even though it's at half its 52 week high right now, it could easily get crushed further.
Any talk we here about "reopening the economy" does NOT mean back to business as usual. I will stand by this......with no vaccine there will be no mass gatherings.
sporthenry
Footballguy
This has been my thought process. At the very least, I'm willing to bet the market is underestimating the odds that social distancing persists beyond this. It is probably the same stocks that were smoked to begin with but are probably 30-50%+ off their lows.
As someone mentioned, LYV is a good one. 50% of YTD highs, 30% off lows. Need to look into it more but also think they could run into issues with the timing of their cash flows.
The cruise lines and airlines have been discussed ad nauseam but they remain issues. Casinos. Sure, they could open up at like 1/3 or half capacity but still not great for over-levered companies.
One name I like is ARMK. 17% of their business is sports/leisure/corrections. Sports are going to come back ASAP with or without fans so that is just lost demand unlike elective surgeries. 23% education which if schools go virtual in the fall is the real death knell. 19% business and 16% facilities which are exposed to the economy more. Not like there will be large conferences anytime soon. They tout the variable cost nature of their model (ie they fired all the stadium workers) but still have fixed costs.
Movie theaters and restaurants could also work. Riskier play may be the theme parks or even Vail Resorts if it persists to next winter.
ETA: Gyms also. 24 Hour Fitness is private so over-levered but looks like they're filing. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/18/24-hour-fitness-weighs-bankruptcy-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html
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Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
They're at least somewhat diversified with a seemingly highly successful streaming platform.
But yah, if word came down that amusement parks were shuttered until 2021, DIS would have to drop pretty good (and present solid opportunity).
I'd be curious how much of their revenue is from parks. Jan/Feb 2020 numbers not pre-Disney+
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sporthenry
Footballguy
Well I'd just use 2019 numbers. 38% of its FY19 revenues were from Parks, Experiences and Products.Of that 82% is from Theme park admissions, Resort and vacations ,Retail and wholesale sales of merchandise, food and beverage. So 31% of their revenue could be 0 or close to it. It is also their fastest growing segment in terms of profits as well so you could argue for multiple compression.
That doesn't include losses from ESPN due to sports. That will bounce back and should rebound fairly strong. Maybe not enough to make up for all lost demand but live sports will blow up when they return. Obviously movies are being pushed so will come back but hit in the near-term. I don't read equity research reports but the one thing DIS gets credit for is how they can turn something like Frozen into a billion dollar franchise with sales, resorts, rides, etc. That stuff will take time to restart.
beef
Footballguy
I would be too. Never been to one of their parks, but I've certainly given them plenty of money for movies, toys and now more for D+.
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Insoxicated
Why on earth would you use 2019 when Disney+ (the main topic of conversation) didn't launch till Nov2019 and had 50 Million subscribers as of this month?
Let's assume $5/mo (some annual, some subsidized).... that's $3B/yr in sales... or ~25% of their 2019 revenue.
Possibly replacing (more than?) their perk revenue when you figure in operating costs/profit? I dunno. But it's massive infusion of capital that is COVID-Proof.
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chet
Footballguy
To reiterate, I am not selling any shares and in fact, I bought more CYDY on Friday. This is a rare opportunity. They told everyone on Friday's shareholder call that Bruce Patterson is working on the paper that will change how the world looks at COVID-19. That paper will be submitted early the week of April 27.
Also, CYDY management is meeting with British health officials next week to discuss their use of Leronlimab. There is speculation this is happening because Boris Johnson was injected and got him out of the hospital.
Also, CYDY management is meeting with British health officials next week to discuss their use of Leronlimab. There is speculation this is happening because Boris Johnson was injected and got him out of the hospital.
Capella
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It looks like on February 4th Disney reported that there were already 28.6 million subscribers and the streaming division for Q1 (which includes Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+) posted a $693 million loss.
So really we're looking at 22 million new subscribers since the last time we have streaming financials which at $5/mo per customer would be $1.3 billion in new money per year (divided by four is $325 million per quarter), but not necessarily all profit since they were operating at a loss with 28.6 million subscribers.
It looks like in Q1 the theme park income was $2.3 billion. I'm not sure if that includes hotels, merch, etc.
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sporthenry
Footballguy
Yeah, Disney + is aiming for profitability in 2024. But if people are going to be combative here, then I'm not going to engage on stuff they can look up.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Don Hutson
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
[icon]
Insoxicated
I'm not trying to be a jerk but The post you quoted specifically asked about non 2019 numbers because it was in context of Disney+.
Sorry if my response was offensive, just was an odd reply to the inquiry is all. Cheers.
Capella
Footballguy
I don’t think enough is being made out of the fact that they already have 50M subscribers in just 6 months. That is completely absurd.
djmich
Footballguy
I hope otherwise but can’t imagine Boris Johnson was injected with Leronlimab and there’s no press on that.
chet
Footballguy
There are good arguments on both sides. They'd want to keep it secret to minimize the chance of a revolt from the folks who think they can't get it and BJ is using his position as PM to get preferred medical treatment. As I said, it's all speculation at this point.
The no press thing isn’t hard to believe. It’s the injecting him with something that what, only ten other people had been injected with prior to him getting sick? I find that difficult to believe.
They better add some content at some point. Once people can leave the house they'll likely realize they don't use some things as much. I only have it so my boys can watch a movie if they want. Mandalorian was decent, but outside of re-watching a movie, there's nothing else my boys and I watch. I probably would have cancelled it already if it weren't for the stay at home.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I doubt anyone is filming much right now. Sounds like they have a lot of good Star Wars/Marvel stuff in the pipeline but I would imagine it's all getting delayed now.
Very true, but it's been pretty lacking in "new" content since the start outside of the Mandalorian.
Nobody is revolting because a PM received good medical treatment. That county spends a small fortune on a window dressing monarchy. The most logical reasons why Johnson and company haven't mentioned a Leronlimab treatment is that he and his cronies have been busy accumulating shares or it didn't happen.chet said:
It did and we were concerned it was going to drop to the 50s. There were more people posting in this thread that we we're headed to DOW 15000 than people saying back up the truck and load up. I'm not knocking anyone because many of those people made good points and I certaining didn't recognize the back up the truck moment.-OZ- said:
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I've been having my daughters watch some of the National Geographic series each day during this to make up for missed Social Studies/History/Science. The National Parks series is pretty cool, along with Brain Games and the Jeff Goldblum series.stbugs said:
proteus126
Footballguy
I don't see why not. I had Todem and Sneegor (and eoMMan by proxy) rolling in the aisles with my bearish and then my range call back on Feb 27, but pretty much nailed it. I was buying the S&P once under 2500 in March. Long and done now.
Total luck, but fun to gloat.
Congrats and well done. You were certainly in the minority in Feb. My point was that you were also in the minority in March when S&P was at 2250. The general sentiment here was s&p 1800 or so. Back up the truck moments become moments of fear once we get there.
proteus126
Footballguy
Congrats not necessary. First off, it was a gut call. Second, I didn't maximize by selling at 3000 and then buying back at 2300. I just flushed a good chunk of my available cash and bond funds into stonks sub 2500. Call it a "rebalance on steroids".
As I recall, when we were at S&P 2250, the majority here were tumescent and salivating over the deals available, albeit they also were puckered a bit. That is why a few here said the bottom wasn't in yet - people on this board were buying and not capitulating.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Yeah, but we learn things in hindsight. at this point the only way Disney goes back to 80 and we don't jump in both head first is if the virus is found to repeat in a host and gets worse for the individual. A lack of immunity, individual and herd would be destructive for sure.
-OZ-
Footballguy
The bottom might not have been in. We'll see.
Most of us who held can do so because we don't need the money in the next few years, not because we think the market can't go back down.
Go back and read the posts. We had guys selling at DOW 21000 and many more posts about how bad things were going to get. Honestly that's still the prevailing thought here with the caveat that the Fed is just propping things up.
Moonlight
Footballguy
Natural Selection. I think this callous thinking is one reason that the United States leads the world in the number of cases and deaths. My experience is that those who champion natural selection, survival of the fittest view themselves as the"fittest". So when you mention my need to get over myself I find it …. and I will use kinder words ironic.
We do not have a handle on this. Businesses should only reopen when there is ongoing daily testing, social distancing and ppe being used and practiced at that business. We do need to adapt but it needs to be done humanely and in socially responsible ways.
Continuing to spread the virus will continue to spread disruption, death and chaos, it doesn't make things better.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If everything stays closed, the virus would not be the biggest problem we have.
There is a balance here between what the virus can do and the extent to which the country is "reopened".
At some point, not reopening will cause more chaos and death than the virus would have.
adonis
Footballguy
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
The low was 85.76 and I don't think retesting this is out of the question. The economy can reopen and they still be really slow to recover. Parks are gonna be slow to comeback.
Will we even have baseball? When does ESPN start playing something other than the '92 Final Four again?
They also have a tremendous amount of debt.
I think they continue to get more bad news than good news for a while. Don't see why 80s are off the table at all.
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I bought some DIS at $80 so it got lower than $85. The brand is too strong to be hurt too long and I am of the opinion parks will be open later this year.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
ghostguy123
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
Used mybookie to wager on a twitch streamed Xbox UFC Simulation fight last night. Had a $49 no risk bet.
Buddies and I all bet the same female fighter. She won as the dog. Now officially +$70 on betting on fake #### during a pandemic.
It's bad out here folks.
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