fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I have as well. Could obviously be wrong and it keeps going up but I just went 60% cash. Even more so than a casino, it feels like a ponzI scheme.
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Stock Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Todem
Footballguy
It feels very very off to me. I simply do not have a good feeling about any of this now. I again thought if everything went well and we flattened the curve and slowly got everyone back to work by year end we could be where we are right now.
This is simply nuts. Makes no sense to me. And I have been doing this a long long time.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
If I miss a big run I’m alright with it. Still have 40% in. To me it feels like we’re more likely down than up, hence the ratio.
Todem
Footballguy
Not for much longer bro.Stonks Go Up
Buckle up.
And if they don’t retreat.....great. But I know better.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Todem
Footballguy
I have not missed anything. This is pure risk and downside mitigation in my thinking. I owe it to my clients to look out for them and their best interests. We are down less than 6% for the freaking year. That is unreal. The reality of this shutdown has not been felt in corporate earnings in earnest.....it soon will and the market will price a ton of stocks accordingly.
Todem
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
To be fair, they just raised $2.3 billion so will likely be able to survive another year plus. I'm actually surprised it isn't rallying a bit more. Granted most of it was raised in debt and converts. Raised $400mn in equity at $11. So if it dips below that in the near-term, that'd be a bad sign. I expected a bit of a short squeeze here.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
adonis
Footballguy
It seems to me that folks have nowhere else to go with their money. Nowhere globally is better than our stock market. Folks want things to return to normal, it seems like most states are going to open up, many believe Trump or that this isn't a big deal, and expect things to pick up and get running again.
I just can't foresee any reasonable scenario where this happens, but the disconnect between wall street and main street has never seemed quite so stark as it seems today.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
So the S&P is up from where it was 12 months ago?
That seems.............unpossible
That seems.............unpossible
Capella
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
We were due for a 10% correction before covid hit. Market is priced like none of this ever happened.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
Yup. I am an optimist. But this is little too Goldielocks for me. I am getting cautious again. Same old pattern I follow. Too much greed...I get afraid. The rebound has been insane. Never seen anything like this in my life as an investor.
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Todem
Footballguy
And that is why I am mind boggled. Our economy is much worse than it was 12 months ago.
When you trim and go to a heavier % cash, do you generally sell that % across the board or completely get out of some and stay 100% in others? What goes into that decision?
Todem
Footballguy
Yes....I go over each company and decide what we get out of 100% and what we trim. All based on my analysis of their multiples, earnings, cash flow, the effects I think the recession will have on future earnings, strength or weakness of dividend etc etc.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Is it for the stocks driving the indexes? Most of the stocks I’m looking at are appropriately priced. Banks down 30%, airlines 60-70, hotels 50. Lowe’s is is off 15% and they are printing money right now. Are the big dogs being at their previous levels just putting a pretty face on the numbers? Do the markets really care if every private retailer is shuttered and Amazon is rolling? Last I heard the economy was off 7%. If most of that is small business and select big boys being crushed like hotels, isn’t everyone one else doing ok? Also no shortage of money with $1000 week unemployment checks and the feds covering payroll rent and utilities for many small businesses
ghostguy123
Footballguy
My 403b is back in the market.
However, I have cash reserves on hand. I am buying when you buy. Hopefully you will share what you are going into
.Hell I might even open up a HELOC on my rental property to have even more available
Random
Footballguy
Don't do this.My 403b is back in the market.
However, I have cash reserves on hand. I am buying when you buy. Hopefully you will share what you are going into
Hell I might even open up a HELOC on my rental property to have even more available
And do you do this even in retirement accounts composed mostly of mutual funds, or just in taxable accounts?
Jobber
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Todem
Footballguy
With my clients who are only mutual funds we just rebalance and trim the equity exposure and some of the high yield exposure. IRA accounts go on a case by case basis. Not every client is the same. Risk tolerances vary, time horizons vary. I give highly customized tactical and strategical portfolio management. It is what separates me from a lot of the cookie cutter advisors who simply hire outside managers or use firm discretionary models, and don’t do anything really accept give lip service.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I gifting him some tempura seaweed chips now before the cost of thanks goes upMy CYDY situation:
My independent research consists of an article on Inverse.com about Charlie Sheen, that's it. All of my material reading comes from Chet on the internet along with postings on a FF website. I pay less attention to CYDY than almost anything I own or intend on owning. I can't pronounce the name of their drug or the name of what they're branding it as. I own $20k of this
If it really does explode over the next few years (and I have no intention of selling basically until Chet says so), one day, when I make my sale, I think I'm gonna owe Chet from the internet a nice bottle of Pappy 15 or 23.
beef
Footballguy
Looking to sell mine. She wants to dip into my CYDY profits for her stupid projects. Bull f'n ####!
Todem
Footballguy
Man.....the fact that the market is this top heavy is why things are moving so fast both up and down.
It is not reality. The US is a consumption based economy. And If we do not rebound as swiftly as this market seems to have priced in? The consumption will go down fast and everything goes down.
I am not saying we are testing the March 23rd lows. I am talking going down 10-15% from here is very reasonable until we get clear signs we are recovering, have a vaccine, viable therapeutic treatments that will give people confidence we are going to be ok etc etc.
Long term...I have no worries. I am strictly talking about this irrational exuberance we are seeing here. Square up 11%? Where are the people coming in and swiping their readers? Disney brushing off over a billion down in revenue? Those parks in Orlando will not be operating at full capacity for a long time. There is a lot of disconnection. I am getting cautious again, because I am seeing stupid things not based on the oncoming reality of what we are going to be facing as a consumption economy. How fast are the jobs going to come back? You really think we are only a 15% off the all-time high economy right now and looking out into the rest of the year?
Hell if I am wrong....so be it. But this feels completely like a balloon being pumped up with fake air. It is not even real demand. It is on hope of pent up demand. But what about Covid 19? Are we really past this? According to the smartest scientists in the world.....no.
It just feels scary and not grounded in reality short term. So why not take profits here? I never met anyone who got poor taking profits. We are in a huge profit position. Time to take some off the table here while this imaginary rally keeps going. It makes zero sense on a fundamental basis. And that is what I am grounded in. Always have been and always will be. It has never steered me wrong. I am not talking going 100% cash. But going back to 30% maybe even 40% here feels really prudent.
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dkp993
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
So this is one of the things that gives me pause as a bear. The stocks that have led the rally seem 'rational' in this sense. Technicians usually use the lack of breadth as a bad sign for the broader market. But it makes sense that airlines and casinos are 60-70% down and that would seem to imply the risk / reward isn't completely out of whack. Not like those stocks are back to or 10% off their highs. When those stocks rally, that will be the sign of a complete reversal but can the broader market just hang out until then? That leads to the point that using indices as a barometer is likely not great since they are dominated by the winners. At the very least, why I think you need to look at IWM.
Another thing that perma bull Tom Lee said on CNBC is that while unemployment may reach 26%, it could represent less than 10% of household income while the great financial crisis was 10% unemployment but 16% household income. So probably another example where can't just look at headline index or number but have to dig in. That is why the white collar furloughs are more troubling because it's higher income and in theory, jobs or incomes that won't come back. But could point to a quicker rebound especially given the Fed's outsized response relative to the Financial Crisis.
The last thing is people citing positive movement data which show the consumer coming back to life. That is data that hedge funds will have much faster than any of us. So will be impossible for us to monitor. But that will perhaps be my biggest blind spot in all of this since they'll have real time data. https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1257646378978861056
Bluto Blutarsky
Footballguy
Binky The Doormat
Footballguy
never heard of them before ...a quick look shows they invest in small business - seems shaky right now
Based on this post alone, you are in the upper 5% of all money managers. Major props for you to be thinking about this and not sitting in your house watching movies all afternoon. Especially like the part about how you’re thinking is universal and you are looking at things on a client by client basis
Don’t take my original post the wrong way. I’m basically in agreement with you. I’m just playing devils advocate here and thinking about reasons why what is happening doesn’t connect with what we are seeing
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
A good amount of people will die, the economy will be open, consumers will be scarce. Kind of my base case at this point.
Don’t take this wrong Kentuckians, but with the unemployment payment bombs this 33% may actually be stimulating the economy
Don’t mean to be crass because I don’t want to see anyone die. But we could easily replace one percent of the consumers in a year and even sooner if we opened up the borders.Don’t mean to be crass because I don’t want to see anyone die. But we could easily replace one percent of the consumers in a year and even sooner if we opened up the borders.
Appreciate the color, sounds like you do spend a lot of time and energy taking care of your clients
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The actual numbers aren't the difference maker for the economy, 100k could be 1mm... It's consumer confidence; you aren't going to do x, y, z when you're frightened, literally for your life. Obviously worse numbers make the confidence lower, but if the fear is from 100k or 1mm, there is still fear and minimal consumer activity.
The position is becoming clear from the government and Wall St; $ > lives
cosjobs
Footballguy
I have not seen anyone broach this subject, but what about those who are dying?
It seems to be predominantly institutionalized elderly the incarcerated. If 20% of those populations were to die, would it not have a profoundly positive impact on the economy and deficit? And wouldn't the jobs lost be the worst in the market? Is that factored into the futures, yet?
It seems to be predominantly institutionalized elderly the incarcerated. If 20% of those populations were to die, would it not have a profoundly positive impact on the economy and deficit? And wouldn't the jobs lost be the worst in the market? Is that factored into the futures, yet?
sporthenry
Footballguy
I'm just wondering what turns the market over. Maybe it is just a bull trap, get everyone complacent and then pull the rug out. But unless these states go back to a hard lockdown, seems like a few months of meh until you start to get earnings. Assume the ones that don't file in the next few weeks have enough optionality to wait out a few months of the recovery.
Not now. When the market was down 35% sure, not when it’s basically not down from the highs.
Shortening the end of life money suck and moving that money into consumers hands could end up being a bump???
