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Stock Thread (22 Viewers)

BassNBrew said:
Sold the UAL I acquired this morning for a 3% gain.  

I'm going to call it a morning.  Time to stop picking up nickels and go to work at my real job.
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OK, I lied.  Sold 1/4 of my Bloomin position.  It was up 5% from the price of the last lot purchased.  I was way overweighted in this company due to chasing it down.  Congrats to those who bought heavy this morning.

 
So some stuff is up and down a few % each way within an hour.  Crazy.  

I feel good about my BLMN cost average of 9.02

Getting hungry again

I shoulda bought even more when Todem said he went full on bloomin a little while ago

 
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Capella said:
Amz
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How did I miss that? I’ve got a bunch of shares in my brokerage account right now and a bunch more vesting next couple years so I won’t be buying another share ever. God willing, we’ll keep getting more every year.

 
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sporthenry said:
So the biggest bulls are a software engineer turned tanked investor on the side and a guy named Kuppy. I don't disagree that the trade just never developed the incremental buyer. I guess the market caps made them impossible for big funds to get involved and retail is busy following Barstool and trading all these airlines and cruiselines. 

My thesis hasn't changed at all. I'm buying known (and record) cash flow and likely shareholder return. It's funny that everyone freaks out about what revenue looks like in a few months for tankers but those same concerns could be said for any business that isn't tech. What do casino or restaurant earnings look like in a few months? Tankers will probably have a few painful months but seems like that is priced in and then some. 
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Haha love me some Calvin. Although his recent tweets about Dividends were a bit cringe worthy. I'm watching VLCC rates and they just keep staying elevated. Will be interesting to see if the Cleaves dude updates his forecasts / targets. 

 
Todem said:
We finally went into CCL folks.

200 shares (a nibble) at 11.35

Sail with caution here LOL. But 2021 they have bookings at 70% best balance sheet among the big three cruise lines folks. 
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Nice job.  Already over $12.

 
Bossman said:
Lesson #25

Trading options vs Buying stonks;

Here's what I have come to love about selling options vs. buying stocks

Trading options - I make money when the stock value does NOTHING

Digest that. I sell the option, collect the premium, and if the stock price stays about the same, I win.

Lets use for example the latest episode of Bossman vs Wall Street, ... Selling $10 NERV puts, 6/19 strike date, paying me $4.20 ea ....

if NERV price does not change in 5 weeks, I am guaranteed 42%

Only thing that I need the stock to do is stay at or around the same price (above $10 in this case)

What stock are you going buy and hold for 5 weeks that will gain 42% for you? TVIX? LOL

For those that opt for the safer play of selling a $5 NERV Put for $1.30, you've guaranteed yourself 26% if  the stock doesn't tank.

Like epic, fall off a cliff, below any price it's ever traded for tank ... in the next 5 weeks.

What stock are you going to buy that will guarantee you 26% in 5 weeks? CYDY? BLMN? MGM? GOLD?  

Some justified doubts that any one of these stocks will pay you 26% at the end of 5 weeks ... and good luck picking the correct one. 
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All true. When I tell folks that I like to trade options, their immediate response is usually either that they know nothing about them or that they think I am taking crazy risks. Sometimes I try to explain how selling a put is actually a more conservative strategy than buying a stock outright but usually I just shut up and sell another put.

 
Bossman said:
Lesson #25

Trading options vs Buying stonks;

Here's what I have come to love about selling options vs. buying stocks

Trading options - I make money when the stock value does NOTHING

Digest that. I sell the option, collect the premium, and if the stock price stays about the same, I win.

Lets use for example the latest episode of Bossman vs Wall Street, ... Selling $10 NERV puts, 6/19 strike date, paying me $4.20 ea ....

if NERV price does not change in 5 weeks, I am guaranteed 42%

Only thing that I need the stock to do is stay at or around the same price (above $10 in this case)

What stock are you going buy and hold for 5 weeks that will gain 42% for you? TVIX? LOL

For those that opt for the safer play of selling a $5 NERV Put for $1.30, you've guaranteed yourself 26% if  the stock doesn't tank.

Like epic, fall off a cliff, below any price it's ever traded for tank ... in the next 5 weeks.

What stock are you going to buy that will guarantee you 26% in 5 weeks? CYDY? BLMN? MGM? GOLD?  

Some justified doubts that any one of these stocks will pay you 26% at the end of 5 weeks ... and good luck picking the correct one. 
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Don't take this as a knock, because you're kicking butt.  Just wanted to responded to your question.

MGM +11% today alone.  Thanks for the heads up @Todem  Took my profit on what I bought this morning.  Still hold 60% of my position at roughly $12 a share.

 
The Lost One said:
I went in on MFA a little while back. I think that was another of Todem's suggestions, if not, sorry I misspoke. 
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Me too, twice. Haven't been back to that table in 2 weeks now. I should buy again. it's well below my last sell.

Sold my yellow rock. Just doesn't move fast enough for me.

 
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Seriously, what causes everything to be way down, reverse to go up several percent, then reverse again to be down again.  In a matte of a couple hours.

 
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Lacey said:
Thoughts on WRE vs MFA?
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Apples and Oranges. 

MFA is purely a MBS (mortgage Backed Security) company.

WRE own Real Estate both Commercial and Residential in the Metro DC area. High end. And building more housing as demand is strong in that area. 

 
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humpback said:
Agreed. The banks just scream value here, but usually it's for a reason.
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Agreed. I am buying financials and real estate for long term holds, collect what I deem safe dividends (as that is a huge part of rationale to hold these while waiting for the recovery which will take...years) and simply getting them while all the ebad news is priced in. 

 
Goldman Sachs may not be so bullish on the near-term path of the U.S. economy, but it is bullish on you getting another stimulus check in the mail from Uncle Sam this year.

“Our forecast assumes one more round of payments similar to what the bill proposes,” Goldman Sachs strategist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Wednesday, referring to the new $3 trillion relief plan put forward by House Democrats on Tuesday. Under the proposal dubbed the HEROES Act, a second round of checks would include $1,200 per family member and up to $6,000 per household.

Must be a lot of $ flowing into Robinhood accounts and tons of new accounts (which we already know about). I guess they want to steal it from these people. What is easier thatn the govt giving them free money that they can gamble with in the stock market. Won't even be hard to separate the $ from these newbies either.

 
Todem said:
Agreed. I am buying financials and real estate for long term holds, collect what I deem safe dividends (as that is a huge part of rationale to hold these while waiting for the recovery which will take...years) and simply getting them while all the ebad news is priced in. 
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Thoughts on decreasing demand in Commercial RE due to the WFH trend? 

 
Capella said:
Amz
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Smart.   The more I think about things--the more I feel like big tech, precious metals, and residential real estate  are the ways to go.  I think for me that it's sinking in more and more that this thing is not going to be gone (at least in the states) in 12-18 months.   FIrst of all--I think the 12-18 month timeline to make a vaccine is the most optimistic case possible.  Secondly--even if a vaccine is made---producing it and distributing it in scale to the US and the world is a massive task on its own.  You then have to administer it in an organized and efficient way--which is another huge task.   Even if a vaccine is made in that super optimistic timeline--I think it could easily be 2-3 years by the time it actually gets implemented and administered in any sort of meaningful way.  

 I hate to say it--there's even the chance the the virus mutates by the time we get to administering a vaccine.   Because of this--I do think that companies like Amazon are primed to only get stronger.   I also think that you could see our government supporting and infusing liquidity in the economy for a while to come which again is supportive of the precious metals.   I also think that many Americans will be either unemployed or on reduced incomes--so the rental market will be strong--which is why I believe in residential real estate.   One of my bigger concerns is the thought that companies that will move to a more WFH model could just outsource some of their work to places like India to save money.   Keep in mind--I'm not trying to instill fear or worry--but I'm just trying to look at things in a realistic way. Just look at testing--over 2 months in--and look at the percentage of our population that has been tested for covid.   There's nothing out there that leads me to believe that we could administer any potential vaccine in any sort of expedited fashion. 

 
You guys rock. Have been lurking in this thread for a long time, bought in on CYDY and looking to add BLMN if it dips a bit more.

 
[icon] said:
Thoughts on decreasing demand in Commercial RE due to the WFH trend? 
Click to expand...
Short term trend IMO. I am not buying into this permanent trend. A lot of people want to work outside their home. That is my opinion. I am banking on things getting back to normal in 18-24 months and beyond. 

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Smart.   The more I think about things--the more I feel like big tech, precious metals, and residential real estate  are the ways to go.  I think for me that it's sinking in more and more that this thing is not going to be gone (at least in the states) in 12-18 months.   FIrst of all--I think the 12-18 month timeline to make a vaccine is the most optimistic case possible.  Secondly--even if a vaccine is made---producing it and distributing it in scale to the US and the world is a massive task on its own.  You then have to administer it in an organized and efficient way--which is another huge task.   Even if a vaccine is made in that super optimistic timeline--I think it could easily be 2-3 years by the time it actually gets implemented and administered in any sort of meaningful way.  

 I hate to say it--there's even the chance the the virus mutates by the time we get to administering a vaccine.   Because of this--I do think that companies like Amazon are primed to only get stronger.   I also think that you could see our government supporting and infusing liquidity in the economy for a while to come which again is supportive of the precious metals.   I also think that many Americans will be either unemployed or on reduced incomes--so the rental market will be strong--which is why I believe in residential real estate.   One of my bigger concerns is the thought that companies that will move to a more WFH model could just outsource some of their work to places like India to save money.   Keep in mind--I'm not trying to instill fear or worry--but I'm just trying to look at things in a realistic way. Just look at testing--over 2 months in--and look at the percentage of our population that has been tested for covid.   There's nothing out there that leads me to believe that we could administer any potential vaccine in any sort of expedited fashion. 
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Yes I’ve done pretty well this year catching the dips but I think I’m done for now and will retreat to my fortress made out of amazon. Just safer and hey who can argue with 30% so far this year. 

 
Todem said:
Short term trend IMO. I am not buying into this permanent trend. A lot of people want to work outside their home. That is my opinion. I am banking on things getting back to normal in 18-24 months and beyond. 
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I disagree wholeheartedly. If you listen to CEOs of companies like Cisco, Twitter, etc... tectonic shift taking place. Commercial real estate is possibly going to be the biggest loser, imo.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I disagree wholeheartedly. If you listen to CEOs of companies like Cisco, Twitter, etc... tectonic shift taking place. Commercial real estate is possibly going to be the biggest loser, imo.
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I agree in general--but there will be sectors of commercial that can be okay.  So much more business will be done with e-commerce--so you could see some strength in warehousing.  Also--there are some patches of commercial real estate that could potentially get re-zoned or re-purposed to be used for residential purposes--so there is some potential upside there.  Outside of those things--I do agree.   I think that mall, strip mall, and office spaces are going to suffer for a while.  

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
Smart.   The more I think about things--the more I feel like big tech, precious metals, and residential real estate  are the ways to go.  I think for me that it's sinking in more and more that this thing is not going to be gone (at least in the states) in 12-18 months.   FIrst of all--I think the 12-18 month timeline to make a vaccine is the most optimistic case possible.  Secondly--even if a vaccine is made---producing it and distributing it in scale to the US and the world is a massive task on its own.  You then have to administer it in an organized and efficient way--which is another huge task.   Even if a vaccine is made in that super optimistic timeline--I think it could easily be 2-3 years by the time it actually gets implemented and administered in any sort of meaningful way.  

 I hate to say it--there's even the chance the the virus mutates by the time we get to administering a vaccine.   Because of this--I do think that companies like Amazon are primed to only get stronger.   I also think that you could see our government supporting and infusing liquidity in the economy for a while to come which again is supportive of the precious metals.   I also think that many Americans will be either unemployed or on reduced incomes--so the rental market will be strong--which is why I believe in residential real estate.   One of my bigger concerns is the thought that companies that will move to a more WFH model could just outsource some of their work to places like India to save money.   Keep in mind--I'm not trying to instill fear or worry--but I'm just trying to look at things in a realistic way. Just look at testing--over 2 months in--and look at the percentage of our population that has been tested for covid.   There's nothing out there that leads me to believe that we could administer any potential vaccine in any sort of expedited fashion. 
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The bolded seems contradictory.

I totally agree with most of this but as the owner of residential properties, I'm a bit concerned about the next year or so.  I'll probably need to take more metro tenants in my duplexes and could see an uptick in evictions during this process.  Rental rates were really good for my area, but I'm afraid they will also need to be reduced to keep better tenants in my houses. Not very optimistic

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
I agree in general--but there will be sectors of commercial that can be okay.  So much more business will be done with e-commerce--so you could see some strength in warehousing.  Also--there are some patches of commercial real estate that could potentially get re-zoned or re-purposed to be used for residential purposes--so there is some potential upside there.  Outside of those things--I do agree.   I think that mall, strip mall, and office spaces are going to suffer for a while.  
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Commercial real estate in big cities is going to get slaughtered. Companies are going to reduce that space by half, imo. They’ll come out of this leaner.

Imo, some retail, restaurants, etc will still have their storefronts, but when businesses start working more remotely (especially tech companies), these oversized 20-100 story buildings will have greatly reduced demand. 

 
Random said:
The bolded seems contradictory.

I totally agree with most of this but as the owner of residential properties, I'm a bit concerned about the next year or so.  I'll probably need to take more metro tenants in my duplexes and could see an uptick in evictions during this process.  Rental rates were really good for my area, but I'm afraid they will also need to be reduced to keep better tenants in my houses. Not very optimistic
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Oh I agree that short term evictions will probably rise--and rents might have to get reduced--but over time--I do think you'll have lots of people that can afford rent--but that cannot save up enough money to put a down payment down.   Yeah--as a landlord--things might be weird and upside might be capped for the next 6-12 months--but I think the fundamentals for a strong rental market is something that will be there for several to many years.  This pandemic just delayed the potential for home ownership for a lot of people by several years. 

 
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They initially sold the jobs number, but they can’t hold back their excitement for too long... What’s not to love about 36mm unemployment claims?

 
Todem said:
Agreed. I am buying financials and real estate for long term holds, collect what I deem safe dividends (as that is a huge part of rationale to hold these while waiting for the recovery which will take...years) and simply getting them while all the ebad news is priced in. 
Click to expand...
While my main real estate play is LEN, what do you think about STWD?

 
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