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I can’t imagine we’d eat a donut, would we? I’d have to think you’d get new shares somewhere or it would be re-listed in the future. It’s not like they declared bankruptcy and shareholders are last in line. I want my $400!
I read that we'll get an offer from LK and we either take it or keep worthless shares.

Maybe they bring enough to the hearing and the fact the CEO was fired will be enough to get them re-listed.  You would hope the NASDAQ would look out for us.

 
I read that we'll get an offer from LK and we either take it or keep worthless shares.

Maybe they bring enough to the hearing and the fact the CEO was fired will be enough to get them re-listed.  You would hope the NASDAQ would look out for us.
Yeah, the shares were worth X% of the company back when halted. They should still be worth X% of the company, just don’t know where they’d be traded or if we’d have access.

 
I was reading an article about psylocybin testing for mental illness.  Now that there has been expansion to cannabis, I think psylocybin is next.  Colorado has already decriminalized it.  I noticed SHRMF has had a major climb in the last week (doubled) and thinking about putting in a little bit to get in on the ground floor.  

Does anyone else know anything about this (from a stock perspective - not personal use)?

 
Yeah market plunged on that MRNA article.  CNBC still hasn't figured it out ("market going down following banks, not sure what triggered it").  I think once CNBC figures it out it might have another drop in it.

 
I was reading an article about psylocybin testing for mental illness.  Now that there has been expansion to cannabis, I think psylocybin is next.  Colorado has already decriminalized it.  I noticed SHRMF has had a major climb in the last week (doubled) and thinking about putting in a little bit to get in on the ground floor.  

Does anyone else know anything about this (from a stock perspective - not personal use)?
I've been following/researching them for about a week. They seem pretty legit and I feel that psychedelic therapeutics could beat cannabis to federal legitimacy. Mental health will get more attention than "just pain" that CBD helps with. imo

 
Hi Todem. Big fan.

Do you think most states are going to allow restaurants to go back to 100% capacity?

If not, how does that impact BLMN?
Every state and municipality will be different. It all depends on flare ups, where are they happening etc. I don’t think anyone can answer that question with any certainty. Again a momentum, news driven trade is what I view BLMN as. In and out on dips and pops. 

 
Every state and municipality will be different. It all depends on flare ups, where are they happening etc. I don’t think anyone can answer that question with any certainty. Again a momentum, news driven trade is what I view BLMN as. In and out on dips and pops. 
The Todem-slogan is born.

(for this basket of stocks anyway)

 
Yeah market plunged on that MRNA article.  CNBC still hasn't figured it out ("market going down following banks, not sure what triggered it").  I think once CNBC figures it out it might have another drop in it.
Funny for how much everyone seems to hate this rally, market goes up 4% on MRNA news but barely a sneeze on the fact it may not mean much. 

 
Every state and municipality will be different. It all depends on flare ups, where are they happening etc. I don’t think anyone can answer that question with any certainty. Again a momentum, news driven trade is what I view BLMN as. In and out on dips and pops. 
Is BLMN the only one you are actively looking to do this on now? Any other targets/prices I should keep my eye on now that I worked some cash levels back up?

 
Is BLMN the only one you are actively looking to do this on now? Any other targets/prices I should keep my eye on now that I worked some cash levels back up?
This has ben the easiest and fastest one to do this with in the casual dining sector. 

I did make a trade back in April on TXRH and it never came back down low enough to re-enter. I love that chain.....but it is quite pricey here. 

 
Funny for how much everyone seems to hate this rally, market goes up 4% on MRNA news but barely a sneeze on the fact it may not mean much. 
So who is STAT NEWS. Who are these people. 

Edit....reading this small article that is causing th market to move down 213 points.

LMFAO.

Again.....showing you that this is purely a news driven market on hopes, dreams etc. Take advantage of the dips to buy the best quality. 

WE ARE RANGE BOUND.

You are going to want the high quality when the rubber meets the road with fundamentals. 

 
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Happy at the current price?
I picked some up last week at 27.50 to add to my existing holdings for myself. Going long and collecting that bond proxy dividend man. This is a compounding whopper. Did the same with VZ as well. Own them both with confidence. 

 
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So who is STAT NEWS. Who are these people. 

Edit....reading this small article that is causing th market to move down 213 points.

LMFAO.
I feel like people are just really on edge right now, trying to soak up the gains and not miss out in case the market keeps going up, but scared about that big breaking news that sends it tumbling back down.  So as soon as any news breaks that MIGHT be that big scare people just fire off a bunch of sell orders and dig into it more afterwards.

 
@acertherapeutics "Acer Therapeutics’ emetine significantly inhibits SARS-CoV-2 replication at non-toxic concentrations. Nature, May 2020. Bojkova D, et al. Proteomics of SARS-CoV-2-infected host cells reveals therapy targets."

#Acer immediately hits circuit breaker up in 10 seconds after this tweet.

C'mon CYDY, you can do this 3 times a day!

 
Sold 20 more $7.50 NERV puts at market open yesterday at $2.50 ea. Paid me $5000 in premium.

as of today, the last price for these was $1.75 ....  so if I covered these now I'm up $1500 (2000 x $0.75) ... I'm up $6100 overall on my NERV puts in a week

It's true, up $6100 ... and I don't even own the stock.  :shrug:

No sweaty palms, no frustration, no trying to "time it" to sell the peak and buy the dip.  Just sell the options, sit back, and hope no rogue wave (bad news) wrecks my sandcastle.

What the hell was I thinking trading TVIX all that time? .. lol.

 
I feel like people are just really on edge right now, trying to soak up the gains and not miss out in case the market keeps going up, but scared about that big breaking news that sends it tumbling back down.  So as soon as any news breaks that MIGHT be that big scare people just fire off a bunch of sell orders and dig into it more afterwards.
It’s this kind of thinking and behavior that smart long term investors prey on.

 
So who is STAT NEWS. Who are these people. 

Edit....reading this small article that is causing th market to move down 213 points.

LMFAO.

Again.....showing you that this is purely a news driven market on hopes, dreams etc. Take advantage of the dips to buy the best quality. 

WE ARE RANGE BOUND.

You are going to want the high quality when the rubber meets the road with fundamentals. 
In my experience, STAT News is pretty good when it comes to being in the know on healthcare stuff. I know some here had some bad experience with CYDY but they seem to have a good call into Capitol Hill at the very least. Obviously this is different. But at the same time, who is Moderna? There has been enough weird coincidences around them to imply it could be a pump and dump or at least a way to finance the rest of their pipeline. This feels like the same thing as GILD, it's positive news but not complete at all. 

The problem is, this isn't even just a new driven market but it's a new driven market where nobody knows how to interpret it. I'm sure some biotech analysts are making a pretty dime as they've probably become more or less the CIO of funds at this point. But people are essentially betting on if and when we'll get a vaccine. Probably why I want to lighten up some shorts and just position for the possibility of an early vaccine since I have no edge in this bet. I'd have thought the street was smarter but apparently not.

 
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@acertherapeutics "Acer Therapeutics’ emetine significantly inhibits SARS-CoV-2 replication at non-toxic concentrations. Nature, May 2020. Bojkova D, et al. Proteomics of SARS-CoV-2-infected host cells reveals therapy targets."

#Acer immediately hits circuit breaker up in 10 seconds after this tweet.

C'mon CYDY, you can do this 3 times a day!
#Acer now up more than 100% on news that is less appealing than most of CYDY's.  Can't get onto the Naz fast enough.

 
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In my experience, STAT News is pretty good when it comes to being in the know on healthcare stuff. I know some here had some bad experience with CYDY but they seem to have a good call into capital hill at the very least. Obviously this is different. But at the same time, who is Moderna? There has been enough weird coincidences around them to imply it could be a pump and dump or at least a way to finance the rest of their pipeline. This feels like the same thing as GILD, it's positive news but not complete at all. 

The problem is, this isn't even just a new driven market but it's a new driven market where nobody knows how to interpret it. I'm sure some biotech analysts are making a pretty dime as they've probably become more or less the CIO of funds at this point. But people are essentially betting on if and when we'll get a vaccine. Probably why I want to lighten up some shorts and just position for the possibility of an early vaccine since I have no edge in this bet. I'd have thought the street was smarter but apparently not.
Agree with you. Extreme news sensitivity going on and why I steer clear of bio-techs like this and all the other small micro caps and bulletin board stocks. 

You simply don’t know. Also there are so many bio-tech racing to make a vaccine and again....who will they truly profit from something that will be made available to everyone. This vaccine is not about margins, it is about making sure our way of life can come back to normal. So the hypes ridiculous on these stocks. 

I read the article. Made some points and they seem like a reputable outfit in the bio tech world. But my goodness.....the swing on that article was hilarious. But I also think again we are range bound and this is profit taking again. I expect this 6-7% range up and down unless we get amazing news or devastating news. But IMO again...take advantage of those 6-7% dips to continue to add the best in breed to your portfolios (and trade some of these consumer sensitive stocks). I am getting to the pint of finally....taking my shot on DAL. 

I want to see how we open tomorrow....I actually expect a red day tomorrow again. DAL is the only airlines I have any degree of confidence in to make a trade in for a quick hit. 

 
Agree with you. Extreme news sensitivity going on and why I steer clear of bio-techs like this and all the other small micro caps and bulletin board stocks. 

You simply don’t know. Also there are so many bio-tech racing to make a vaccine and again....who will they truly profit from something that will be made available to everyone. This vaccine is not about margins, it is about making sure our way of life can come back to normal. So the hypes ridiculous on these stocks. 

I read the article. Made some points and they seem like a reputable outfit in the bio tech world. But my goodness.....the swing on that article was hilarious. But I also think again we are range bound and this is profit taking again. I expect this 6-7% range up and down unless we get amazing news or devastating news. But IMO again...take advantage of those 6-7% dips to continue to add the best in breed to your portfolios (and trade some of these consumer sensitive stocks). I am getting to the pint of finally....taking my shot on DAL. 

I want to see how we open tomorrow....I actually expect a red day tomorrow again. DAL is the only airlines I have any degree of confidence in to make a trade in for a quick hit. 
What are your buy/sell targets on this?

 
Should have locked in some profit on the DFS, WFC, and a couple of others that had bounced back nicely.

 
Did anyone else have a problem with the STAT news site crashing their computer?  I had the spinning wheel of death for 5 minutes.

 
Nice call here.  One of these days I'll follow one of y'all on these.
Thanks.  Got a little lucky there.  Had I waited another half hour I would have missed that run.

Targeting (hoping) for a Russell 1250-1260 range to happen this week and get out before the weekend.  Should put TZA around 36-37 for a 20+%.  Depending on how the markets are looking and news on another Stim Package, I'll be eyeing TNA for the rebound.  

 
Every state and municipality will be different. It all depends on flare ups, where are they happening etc. I don’t think anyone can answer that question with any certainty. Again a momentum, news driven trade is what I view BLMN as. In and out on dips and pops. 
Gotcha. I thought you were coming around to holding it long term. 

(I am also wondering what the insurers are going to do in terms of capacity restrictions for their restaurant insureds)

 
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Here’s a better article on Moderna if you don’t like statnews. Their hit pieces are sometimes ridiculous to the point of being paid by shorts type of articles.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/19/is-moderna-stock-really-headed-to-112.aspx?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&yptr=yahoo

I’ll be honest that I though Moderna was already a real company not one with 0 products. It’s been trading in the $15-25 range since it’s IPO at the end of 2018, so it’s been worth $8-10B for a while. The article is about an analyst price prediction leading to a $44B market cap, which starts to make you think a bit.

 
The near term catalyst is 99% of the country will be reopened by the end of May and in June we are going to be even more confident to go out and eat. Sentiment and momentum trade and a big short squeeze based on good news in the reopening of our country. 

I am seeing lines at restaurants already (50% capacity allowed right now). There is huge pent up demand to get back to life. That is what will drive these restaurant names and BLMN will be a big benefactor (Outback, Carraba’s, and Bonefish Grill). I see the stock hitting 13 easy here in the next few weeks. Then see ya. Making the trade. 

Again the market has settled into a range here for the remainder of the year. If anyone thinks we are getting back to the 2019 economy by year end and into 2020....you are making a big mistake. Again can we get back to 2/3 of that? Yes absolutely, especially with a viable treatments and hopefully a real effective vaccine by 2021. But the damage that has been done cannot be ignored and having expectations of Dow 30K next year is not smart.

I know people are paying major premiums for growth......to me the rotation to value is going to come into play here during the next 18-24 months. 

JPM is a perfect example of a perfect value play. Great yield, fantastically run company, but profitability will be hurt hard in this environment and for the next year or two. But the valuation on this stock is excellent under 90. I buy it here with confidence.....collect my safe yield and in 3-4 years see the major pop in the price when the economic environment will be different and better for more revenue for a bank like Chase. 

Industrials right now (I am highly selective here) represent huge long term value, as well as utilities, telecom, and very select REITS (I have mentioned all my names many times in all these sectors). And of course OIL which we went into with PEO in March when oil had that negative 37 a barrel or whatever it was LOL. 

There is value in this market. You just have to be willing to buy and hold, collect yield and then profit long term. 

While everyone piles into AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, and all the so called stay at home names (and we own all these stocks but not at these cost basis’s today and we did buy aggressively March 16th-23rd when everything....I mean everything was on fire sale) right now I have been tactically (like last week when I posted here) picking up more of the beaten down traditional old guard names that people seem to forget about all the time. Yet these stocks consistently give you good returns over the long term. 
Any thoughts on USB for another bank? I know you don't like any of the other mega banks. 

 
Here’s a better article on Moderna if you don’t like statnews. Their hit pieces are sometimes ridiculous to the point of being paid by shorts type of articles.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/19/is-moderna-stock-really-headed-to-112.aspx?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&yptr=yahoo

I’ll be honest that I though Moderna was already a real company not one with 0 products. It’s been trading in the $15-25 range since it’s IPO at the end of 2018, so it’s been worth $8-10B for a while. The article is about an analyst price prediction leading to a $44B market cap, which starts to make you think a bit.
All I really got out of STAT News was that the data was incomplete and we'd need more data to get a good handle. I did notice that 8 folks seems like a small sample size and was unsure what happened to the other 37. All they did was throw a little caution on the optimism. If this caution was ill-founded, then the market would have shrugged it off. Quite frankly, the fact that it took the market over a day to react to this is troubling. That means we have people investing on a vaccine that have no idea what the eff they are doing. 

 
Here's Adam Feuerstein's take on Moderna.  FWIW, I spoke to a VERY knowledgeable virologist and he said that while Moderna's virus news is good, it's also very early and a lot can go wrong.

ome additional thoughts and comments on Moderna, its coronavirus vaccine, the stock’s valuation and Monday night’s $1.3 billion stock sale:

Of course, Moderna raised money. It was only one week ago that I described Moderna’s $23 billion enterprise value as “astonishingly high” for a company with no approved products and no appreciable revenue. Monday, it was $29 billion, with the stock reaching another all-time high of $80 per share, or four times the price from the beginning of the year.

I’ll say it again. Moderna has become biotech’s Tesla.

Moderna, ew.

Why the disgust? Because in the hours before Monday night’s financing, Moderna’s top executives engaged reporters in an all-out publicity tour to promote the first human results from a Phase 1 trial of its closely watched mRNA vaccine candidate against the novel coronavirus.

Chief Executive Stephane Bancel, Chief Medical Officer Tal Zaks, and President Stephen Hoge were everywhere in the media on Monday, talking up the antibody response results from eight patients who each received two doses of the experimental vaccine, while declining to disclose actual clinical data.

And then, when the one-day coronavirus-vaccine promo tour was over, and Moderna’s stock price was 20% higher, the company dumped nearly 18 million shares into the market. Moderna carries a big-boy market valuation now, so it shouldn’t act like a biotech penny stock.

Who is buying Moderna at this inflated valuation? I asked around, and the most common response I received back was “generalist investors” — meaning institutional investors who don’t specialize in the biotech or pharma sector, and are therefore less valuation sensitive and more likely to buy into the optimism for a fast-developing coronavirus vaccine.

“#$!@ing idiots,” was the most colorful response I received from a biotech hedge fund manager. (He used the real curse word, of course.)

This is not to say biotech specialist investors can just ignore (or short) Moderna at will. (It’s also not to say that the need for a Covid-19 from Moderna or any biotech isn’t urgent.)

That said, due to its incredible outperformance, Moderna is now the largest holding — 4.5% — in the popular and tradable basket of biotech stocks known as the XBI. The XBI is at an all-time high — biotech stock prices are surging, if you haven’t noticed — so any fund manager who benchmarks their performance against the XBI, may have to own Moderna to outperform.

Is there a fundamental thesis that can justify Moderna’s current valuation? Some are trying. The simplest bull thesis argues that the early but positive results from the Moderna coronavirus vaccine help to further validate its entire mRNA research pipeline. Simply put, Moderna’s mRNA technology platform could be a big winner. If the coronavirus vaccine proves to be effective, then its other mRNA-based vaccines in clinical development, and possibly its mRNA-based drugs, will also be successful.

In case you were wondering, the world’s top-selling vaccine is Pfizer’s Prevnar, at $5.85 billion in sales last year. So, Moderna is trading at about five times Prevnar sales. That’s a lot, and shows you just how much success is already priced into Moderna’s valuation.

But the commercial potential for an effective coronavirus vaccine might make Prevnar look like a piker. Possibly true. Even with scant data, some analysts are forecasting sales of Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine reaching $7-10 billion in the 2023-2025 time period.

Sanofi’s influenza vaccines generate about $2 billion in sales annually.

Morgan Stanley analysts project a “pandemic market” opportunity for coronavirus vaccines could be $10-30 billion in 2020-2022. Me: A $20 billion sales range is quite something… like a total guess?

Three more points on Moderna and the business of coronavirus vaccines.

1. There are three mRNA-based vaccines being developed. Moderna is in the lead, so it might reach the market first. But the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is not far behind. If one mRNA vaccine is successful, the odds are higher that the others will be successful, too. There will also be competition from other drug makers using different methods to conjure a coronavirus vaccine. Even if you assume Moderna is first, it will not be the only.

2. A coronavirus vaccine isn’t going to be hugely profitable. Johnson & Johnson has already committed to selling its in-development vaccine at cost; and has pledged to make 1 billion doses or more per year.

3. The U.S. government has committed close to $500 million to Moderna to fund and accelerate the development and testing of its coronavirus vaccine. It seems highly likely that, in exchange for the financial support, the government will ask — demand — that it receive doses at little or no cost.

Lastly, a word on politics: President Trump needs a successful coronavirus vaccine to boost his re-election odds. And it needs to come from an American company so that doses can be nationalized and produced exclusively for U.S. citizens, at least in the early stages of any vaccination program.

This is why Moderna is receiving so much attention and financial support from the U.S. government, including Trump’s decision to name pharma executive and Moderna director Moncef Slaoui as his coronavirus vaccine czar. Slaoui resigned from Moderna’s board when his appointment was announced last week, but the connection is no coincidence.

Where is all this heading? A fast-tracked decision by the FDA to grant Emergency Use Authorization to Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine sometime in the fall, but definitely before the November election. Call it the coronavirus October surprise.

Back in January, investors were barely paying attention to Moderna; today it is the most important drug maker in the world. Bancel will gladly ride Trump’s coattails, and by the fall, the stock could be trading at $100.

 
Luckin Coffee to resume trading Wednesday after being halted for more than a month

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/luckin-coffee-to-resume-trading-wednesday-as-company-receives-delisting-notice-2020-05-19?mod=newsviewer_click

Luckin Coffee Inc. LK, -18.40% is scheduled to resume trading Wednesday, Nasdaq Inc. said late Tuesday. Nasdaq halted trading of the company's stock April 7. Luckin Coffee received a delisting notice from the Nasdaq May 15 because of "public interest concerns" related to "fabricated" transactions disclosed by the company in its annual report. The company has also failed to disclose material information in the past, Nasdaq said. The China-based coffee company said it planned to request a hearing with the Nasdaq, which would occur roughly 30 to 45 days after the request. Last week, Luckin Coffee fired its chief executive and chief operating officer amid an investigation into financial misconduct that involved fabricated transactions totalling $310 million. Prior to the halt, shares had dropped 89% this year.

 
Luckin Coffee to resume trading Wednesday after being halted for more than a month

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/luckin-coffee-to-resume-trading-wednesday-as-company-receives-delisting-notice-2020-05-19?mod=newsviewer_click

Luckin Coffee Inc. LK, -18.40% is scheduled to resume trading Wednesday, Nasdaq Inc. said late Tuesday. Nasdaq halted trading of the company's stock April 7. Luckin Coffee received a delisting notice from the Nasdaq May 15 because of "public interest concerns" related to "fabricated" transactions disclosed by the company in its annual report. The company has also failed to disclose material information in the past, Nasdaq said. The China-based coffee company said it planned to request a hearing with the Nasdaq, which would occur roughly 30 to 45 days after the request. Last week, Luckin Coffee fired its chief executive and chief operating officer amid an investigation into financial misconduct that involved fabricated transactions totalling $310 million. Prior to the halt, shares had dropped 89% this year.
Good find.

So what does this mean?  Huge drop at the open?  Get out while you can?

 
All I really got out of STAT News was that the data was incomplete and we'd need more data to get a good handle. I did notice that 8 folks seems like a small sample size and was unsure what happened to the other 37. All they did was throw a little caution on the optimism. If this caution was ill-founded, then the market would have shrugged it off. Quite frankly, the fact that it took the market over a day to react to this is troubling. That means we have people investing on a vaccine that have no idea what the eff they are doing. 
Yep, look at that SRNE stock which is still double what it was before the pop but 50% down from the peak. There are going to be a lot of bag holders. Even if Moderna does develop the vaccine, does that mean they are worth $30B? I don’t even know how much revenue you get from vaccines, especially since there could be a handful of competitors and it’s certainly not out of the question that they get beat out and have nothing.

I’m going back to my younger days, but when the dot com era was in full effect there were a ton of multi-billion dollar search companies (and other types as well). Lycos, Excite, Ask Jeeves, Alta Vista, Yahoo and others. None of them are worth squadoosh now, all beat out by Google. Same type of vibe here, for all the CV biotechs out there, probably only one or two wins out and even maintains their market cap. One of the great things about CYDY is that none of us at the early stages bought in for CV. They were an HIV/cancer drug treatment, just so happened that LeBronLemonade works on CV well. There are going to be dozens based on all these tweets that will be dumped on whales alah Boiler Room. SRNE has 200M total shares. The volume for 15 minutes when it popped Monday morning was 57M. Bag holders have likely already lost a bunch. The shareholders before the tweets made out well and dumped almost the entire float.

 
Good find.

So what does this mean?  Huge drop at the open?  Get out while you can?
My shares are worth $400. I’d rather see where it goes and hold onto a lottery ticket. It’s still a real company with billions of dollars in sales even with the pumped up numbers. It may take a while, but $400 isn’t worth it to me to try and get out for $250. I don’t know if we’ve see a real fake number but it was something like 10% of sales. The stocks down to $4 from a high of $51. I feel bad for anyone who bought over $30 and bought a lot of shares.

 
How low of a stock price can Luckin open?  Could it theoretically open at $1?  This article says that at one point the Chairman, his sister, and the CEO collectively owned about 62% of the stock.  I doubt they'll be allowed to sell so at least everyone won't be selling at the bell.

 
My shares are worth $400. I’d rather see where it goes and hold onto a lottery ticket. It’s still a real company with billions of dollars in sales even with the pumped up numbers. It may take a while, but $400 isn’t worth it to me to try and get out for $250. I don’t know if we’ve see a real fake number but it was something like 10% of sales. The stocks down to $4 from a high of $51. I feel bad for anyone who bought over $30 and bought a lot of shares.
I bought 80 shares at $5.50 so I'm pretty much right there with you.  I could use that $250 on Blmn and make the lost back in less than a week.  I'll need to think about this, last thin I want is another Visionmedia China staring me in the face on my Fidelity screen for the next 20 years.

 
How low of a stock price can Luckin open?  Could it theoretically open at $1?  This article says that at one point the Chairman, his sister, and the CEO collectively owned about 62% of the stock.  I doubt they'll be allowed to sell so at least everyone won't be selling at the bell.
Well it opens at 7am so we should get a pre-market vibe.

 

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