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Stock Thread (13 Viewers)

sporthenry said:
But if you extend that line of thinking another round, why own PENN over any other casino? Like others, MGM is my favorite. Seems cheap here. Only thing that keeps me from going all-in is uncertainty around the strip. But you have diversification with Strip, regional and China. But you want regional, go to BYD or even ERI. ERI is a great operator. Will be over-levered after CZR deal but they also don't lease all their properties. 

I don't disagree about sports betting. I own alittle DKNG that I'll be selling once the sports seasons come back or announce it. In my brief time covering casinos, I never once remember an operator pointing to its sports book as a reason it hit or miss earnings. Besides non-gaming revenue, all we cared about was table and slot hold as well as table drop and slot handle. Maybe in-game betting coupled with stupid retail makes it a more lucrative market but from what I could tell, it's a pretty efficient market. 
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I do like some of the other casino stocks, LVS and WYNN.  My only fear is that the casinos situated primarily in Vegas are going to have a much longer, more difficult road to recovery.  They rely on the consumers going to them, rather PENN is more situated closer to the casino.  And while they don't get near the whale clientele who are major profit drivers, they also have much lower overhead.  I think some of the debtloads on the Vegas based casinos is going to be very difficult to overcome.

I missed the run up on PENN for sure and will wait for dips before buying any casinos.

 
guru_007 said:
I do like some of the other casino stocks, LVS and WYNN.  My only fear is that the casinos situated primarily in Vegas are going to have a much longer, more difficult road to recovery.  They rely on the consumers going to them, rather PENN is more situated closer to the casino.  And while they don't get near the whale clientele who are major profit drivers, they also have much lower overhead.  I think some of the debtloads on the Vegas based casinos is going to be very difficult to overcome.

I missed the run up on PENN for sure and will wait for dips before buying any casinos.
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I don't disagree on Vegas. But PENN is the highest levered of the bunch (maybe RRR is equal). I do worry about how they're going to get people to the strip. But lease payments are effectively debt. So even if PENN can reopen and run some profit on reduced capacity, their lease payments don't change. Well apart from the payments they already got waived from the Trop deal. I'm personally of the belief that the market is completely missing the boat on leases for all these companies. Unless you decide to just not pay your lease, those are fixed costs just the same as debt that will eat any profit in a reduced capacity environment. But that's for another time. I do agree, I'm not buying any casinos. I'm actually short PENN, I reduced it before this last one up thankfully but will definitely look to add to it. At the very least, as a pair trade with ERI. Just need to figure out what leverage will ultimately be there. 

 
sporthenry said:
Yep. I mean, I'm still bearish on PENN. Obviously hasn't worked but at these levels, seems like a massive dislocation to MGM or ERI. Give you credit for GLPI. I do think the REITs are probably fine through a recession. And of course it didn't sell off as much but GLPI is up 130% from lows while PENN is up 600%. REITs seem strong long-term but was/is more juice to be had in some of the operators. 
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That is my conservative approach coming out with balance sheet evaluation. PENN is gross. But the juice is crazy in what that stock has done from the bottom. Oh well. Can’t own everything. 

 
skycriesmary said:
Interesting, thanks for the peak at your methods used. I'm trying to keep my trades between 1-3k on average, but I'm only holding 40k in my Roth. It's a fine line to not have too large of % in a single trade, while at the same time having enough $ so you don't need much of a bump in % to make a hundo or two. I'd love to buy into Todem's master list, set it and forget it, but right now still don't feel comfortable with that strategy. I'd do it, and immediately feel the impact of the correction many of us have been waiting for. * I am anti-midas touch after all. 

It's tempting just to employ a method like @fantasycurse42, and take the emotion out of it. 
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Emotionless, and it has been killing it! 

 
lod001 said:
yeah, me too. I'd guess that robinhooders are all over it.
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For those who aren't aware, here is Robinhood's top 100 most popular stocks. DKNG isn't as popular as venerable names such as AMC, PENN, or Dave & Buster's but is more popular than Walmart and Zoom. Peter Lynch would be proud, people are investing in what they know. Although I guess they forgot part 2 that you know, the business actually has to make money.

On that note, I got bold and started shorting PTON. With all these junk names rallying on a reopening, seems like the market can't have it both ways. 

https://robinhood.com/collections/100-most-popular

 
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Salesforce reports tonight. Started dabbling in this over the past two weeks, maybe about 40% of where I want to get to share wise. Normally I'd hope for an irrational pullback after earnings to buy more but I find myself hoping they blow it out of the water.

 
The General said:
I didn't get in that early but just did at $38.

Been taking the @Todem approach and took the profits to buy more of my personal blue chippers that I will hold forever.
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Similar plan here.  Got in at $22, currently at 75%.  Once it hits 100% going to sell half and keep the rest and see where it goes as house money.  If it doesn't hit I'll just keep and see what the future holds.  Still would like to add when dips allow.  

 
Jayrok said:
Similar plan here.  Got in at $22, currently at 75%.  Once it hits 100% going to sell half and keep the rest and see where it goes as house money.  If it doesn't hit I'll just keep and see what the future holds.  Still would like to add when dips allow.  
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I didn't get to double up levels (sat there and watched for about a week and a half as it rocketed up) but just took a little over half my profits to buy more stuff that won't blow up but will be with me for 20 more years. Free shares of AMZN and AAPL feel nice to put into the piggy bank.

Thanks again FBG stock peeps.

 
Todem said:
General manager of a Nissan Dealership (one of my clients) told me this past weekend they were packed to the rafters and sold 40 cars on Saturday and Sunday. 40.

Again.....long term. Always a Bull. But to think we are not going to have some ups and downs on our long ride back to the all time highs is being an idiot. 

And I keep stating this for the people who are sitting in a lot of cash. Pick your spots. Buy the dips. Don't get caught up in this reopening euphoria because the rubber will meet the road with fundamentals and stocks prices want earnings and they are being priced again to perfection each day this rally continues. 

I am very optimistic. Buy by low and sell high.....never forget that. Don't chase and take emotion out of the equation. I have posted here every time I have bought and the pattern is quite obvious. I was heavy on the panic.....nibbled on the dips. 

Just throwing it out there.
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So Todem, does this apply to a S&P 500/Total Stock Market? We are in the transfer process of about 35% of assets which will be in the form of cash. Hoping the transfer is completed in the next 2 weeks. We are also at about 15% cash now. So, obviously we are cash heavy...Since this will be going into a VTSAX type fund, do you think still waiting for some dips is the smart thing? I mean, if the cash sits on the sidelines and we don't get a dip for another 3 months, will the dip equal out to if we were to put into it today...Thanks again for all your knowledge here. Signed a nervous newbie...

 
Just a quick heads up that OLLI reports after the close. I loved them about a month ago in the 50s but lately it's touched 90 on almost no news, though of course a lot has gone up. I think it is very overbought so I dipped by toes into a few June puts, thinking that if there is any weakness in earnings, profit-taking could drive the price way down on Friday. As always, invest at your own risk and GLTA.

 
Capella said:
Gb my wife man she just lets me handle all of this. Occasionally asks me if we are making money and I tell her yes if up or I lie and say yes if down. She doesn’t even know the login lol
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Lol.  Basically the same here including the log in.     This money would come out of savings and had to get the ok.  Did get an OK if it dips back down.  This is a great long term play imo.   Don't know of they are still there,  but I met the founders when they first started as I had a competing company at the time.  

 
Capella said:
Gb my wife man she just lets me handle all of this. Occasionally asks me if we are making money and I tell her yes if up or I lie and say yes if down. She doesn’t even know the login lol
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Yeah, I handle everything except for the 2k or so she seems to be trading Chinese stonks with.

 
sporthenry said:
So instead of going to the authentic mom and pop Italian places, I'm going to be stuck going to Carrabbas? Feel like there will be opportunity to open restaurants after all this. 
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Mom and pops can't survive at 50% (or less) capacity, so until (if?) the era of social distancing ends they're going to be in trouble.  Here in California even when they can reopen in phase 3 they can't open their bars - another huge source of revenue for a lot of them.  There are cities trying to figure out how to expand outdoor dining areas by shutting down streets and that kind of thing, that could help some that happen to be a place where that is feasible at least through early Fall when the weather starts to change.  

And I agree - I rarely eat at a big chain restaurant, although I also happen to live in an area that doesn't have many of them.  But even when I travel for work (when that was still a thing) I try to find a local place, sit at the bar, and have a meal.

Just made me think....it's probably been over 3 months since I ate food somewhere other than my house.  I miss it!

 
sporthenry said:
IWM underperforming. I suppose a pullback was expected given recent outperformance. But how much more can these big caps go?
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Small cap value was leading IWM. Since May 13th the PSOAX small cap value has beaten the VASMX small cap growth fund, 19.6% to 11.8%. Usually its the other way around.

 
SFBayDuck said:
Mom and pops can't survive at 50% (or less) capacity, so until (if?) the era of social distancing ends they're going to be in trouble.  Here in California even when they can reopen in phase 3 they can't open their bars - another huge source of revenue for a lot of them.  There are cities trying to figure out how to expand outdoor dining areas by shutting down streets and that kind of thing, that could help some that happen to be a place where that is feasible at least through early Fall when the weather starts to change.  

And I agree - I rarely eat at a big chain restaurant, although I also happen to live in an area that doesn't have many of them.  But even when I travel for work (when that was still a thing) I try to find a local place, sit at the bar, and have a meal.

Just made me think....it's probably been over 3 months since I ate food somewhere other than my house.  I miss it!
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Are the economics any better for a chain restaurant? Economies of scale in supply chain? You also get some diversification like can afford to run or close Outbacks in SF or NY for a few months since the ones in middle America are likely open and doing alright. But I was of the thought that 50% capacity is going to be tough on anyone. It's more some of them just may never open up again since they don't have the financial resources. 

 
Look around.  By me, we have had numerous mom and pops go out of business already without any plans for reopening.  No chains that I've seen have went out, yet.  Chains have access to more capital, and are usually more trusted by the public at large to be compliant with health regulations (imho) as opposed to Joe's on the corner.

Restaurant business is a tough gig.  I wouldn't invest in one now, but BLMN holders are certainly rooting against the competition.  

I believe high end restaurants will be further hit as the WFH crowd will no longer be at the office and taking clients out to business dinners.  Weekend traffic may peter back, but there is also 25% unemployment so how many people are going to be going out to restaurants on a regular basis for awhile?

 
SFBayDuck said:
Mom and pops can't survive at 50% (or less) capacity, so until (if?) the era of social distancing ends they're going to be in trouble.  Here in California even when they can reopen in phase 3 they can't open their bars - another huge source of revenue for a lot of them.  There are cities trying to figure out how to expand outdoor dining areas by shutting down streets and that kind of thing, that could help some that happen to be a place where that is feasible at least through early Fall when the weather starts to change.  

And I agree - I rarely eat at a big chain restaurant, although I also happen to live in an area that doesn't have many of them.  But even when I travel for work (when that was still a thing) I try to find a local place, sit at the bar, and have a meal.

Just made me think....it's probably been over 3 months since I ate food somewhere other than my house.  I miss it!
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Actually restaurants can open their bars, bars that don’t serve food can’t open. Of course Marin hasn’t opened #### yet but hopefully June 1 we do. 

 
steelerfan1 said:
So Todem, does this apply to a S&P 500/Total Stock Market? We are in the transfer process of about 35% of assets which will be in the form of cash. Hoping the transfer is completed in the next 2 weeks. We are also at about 15% cash now. So, obviously we are cash heavy...Since this will be going into a VTSAX type fund, do you think still waiting for some dips is the smart thing? I mean, if the cash sits on the sidelines and we don't get a dip for another 3 months, will the dip equal out to if we were to put into it today...Thanks again for all your knowledge here. Signed a nervous newbie...
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Actually the best approach to mutual fund investing when you are flush with cash is to dollar cost average. 

Let’s use $100,000 for this example:

June first invest 20K

July 1st 20K

Let’s say in August the market is down 7-10% from here put in even more like 40K

September it is back to July’s levels do another 20K 

Now you bought more on down and less on the up. 

Take it month by month and don’t look back. Buying individual stocks is a different animal than mutual funds.

So I would DCA the funds each month, no emotion just like your 401K.

If you find along the way the market tanks 15% plus....push it in harder etc etc if not simply break it up over the next 5 months. 20K a month using the 100K example. 

 
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I sold off a bunch of stuff, pocketing some pretty big gains with DKNG in particular

Current portfolio

5% CVX

10% JPM

20% DKNG (taxes will suck on my profits here)

65% cash

 
Todem said:
Actually the best approach to mutual fund investing when you are flush with cash is to dollar cost average. 

Let’s use $100,000 for this example:

June first invest 20K

July 1st 20K

Let’s say in August the market is down 7-10% from here put in even more like 40K

September it is back to July’s levels do another 20K 

Now you bought more on down and less on the up. 

Take it month by month and don’t look back. Buying individual stocks is a different animal than mutual funds.

So I would DCA the funds each month, no emotion just like your 401K.

If you find along the way the market tanks 15% plus....push it in harder etc etc if not simply break it up over the next 5 months. 20K a month using the 100K example. 
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This is tremendous advice. Todem - I appreciate you doling out this wisdom free for all of us to learn and grow - a truly selfless act - thanks so much!

 
CGRdrJoe said:
Actually restaurants can open their bars, bars that don’t serve food can’t open. Of course Marin hasn’t opened #### yet but hopefully June 1 we do. 
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That's not what I've seen.

Restaurant reopening plan a ‘Black Plague’ for brewpubs

But this reopening comes with caveats, and significant new restrictions will affect how employees and patrons interact within the confines of restaurants and brewpubs. It will also impair restaurants’ ability to turn profits. For example, servers and other staff interacting with restaurant guests will be required to wear face masks and minimize time spent within 6 feet of guests. Guests of different parties must be seated at least 6 feet away from other groups. Bars within restaurants must remain closed, plexiglass barriers between booths are being encouraged and live indoor music will be, for now, a thing of the past. Overall, restaurants will be serving a fraction the people they once were able to.
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The ban on bar service inside restaurants and brewpubs will hurt. The bar is typically a key service feature of brewpubs. The bar is the place where patrons gab with each other and with brewers and servers about what’s brewing and what’s on draft. The bar is where the beer geeks stand to scan the chalkboard menu. Many brewpub regulars sit at the bar and, if possible, nowhere else.
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guru_007 said:
Look around.  By me, we have had numerous mom and pops go out of business already without any plans for reopening.  No chains that I've seen have went out, yet.  Chains have access to more capital, and are usually more trusted by the public at large to be compliant with health regulations (imho) as opposed to Joe's on the corner.

Restaurant business is a tough gig.  I wouldn't invest in one now, but BLMN holders are certainly rooting against the competition.  

I believe high end restaurants will be further hit as the WFH crowd will no longer be at the office and taking clients out to business dinners.  Weekend traffic may peter back, but there is also 25% unemployment so how many people are going to be going out to restaurants on a regular basis for awhile?
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Fair. I guess that was my point. These places aren't going to be doing well at 50% capacity. They just have access to capital. I imagine restocking inventory and startup costs are going to be a pain. I know a lot of older restaurant folks seem like they're just cashing out at this point. Probably opens the door for next generation. 

But as far as BLMN goes, I mean demand at 50% capacity will likely be strong. But unless they raise prices, which they very well could, still won't be super profitable. You're just hoping they survive for the next 12-18 months while everything else goes under and hope supply of new restaurants stays low. It's just walking a fine line of needing enough demand destruction to destroy everyone else while not destroying themselves. Also the beauty of our system, if things are doing well in a year, nothing to stop folks from reopening unless credit remains tight, which will reduce BLMN's pricing power.

 
chet said:
ask about why Dr. Patterson isn't on the call and whether he's still consulting for CytoDyn.
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I didn't listen to Tuesday's call.  But people on the message boards are quoting Nader as saying that no one at Cytodyn is irreplaceable.  Only leronlimab is irreplaceable.  I wonder if he said that because Patterson is done?  I can sympathize with Patterson if he did decide to end his relationship with Cytodyn.  Nader's missteps are infuriating.  Another thing I just thought of is about the timing of the insider's selling of CYDY stock.  Remdesivir was declared the Standard of Care on April 29th.  Nader, Patterson, and Kelly sold their stock on April 30th.  They maybe knew what an uphill battle it was going to be to make any progress with Covid after that.

 
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Todem said:
Actually the best approach to mutual fund investing when you are flush with cash is to dollar cost average. 

Let’s use $100,000 for this example:

June first invest 20K

July 1st 20K

Let’s say in August the market is down 7-10% from here put in even more like 40K

September it is back to July’s levels do another 20K 

Now you bought more on down and less on the up. 

Take it month by month and don’t look back. Buying individual stocks is a different animal than mutual funds.

So I would DCA the funds each month, no emotion just like your 401K.

If you find along the way the market tanks 15% plus....push it in harder etc etc if not simply break it up over the next 5 months. 20K a month using the 100K example. 
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YOU ROCK MAN! In the last couple months of doing this myself I've already had so many coulda shouda woulda moments its ridiculous. I put in about 20% yesterday of the cash we have on-hand now.  Will see what next week brings. It's so frustrating watching daily lol.  Will take the emotion out and follow the above. Does make a lot of sense. 

Would you DCA for a Total Bond Fund as well or just dump it in? I notice it doesn't really change in purchase price too much. I'd hate to dump that in and then get that 10-15% dip and not be able to get equities...

Thank you again for your time.

 
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