Stock Thread (31 Viewers)

[BroadwayG]

I guess we will find out since a lot of things recently reopened, plus now hundreds of organized rallies going on with quite a few massless people.  

Whoever discovered massless people should get a science Nobel Prize.

 

[Todem]

At this point it's less about COVID spread and more about the damage that has already been done.

Of the 40 million people who lost their jobs, how many will get their jobs back etc. etc.

I do believe 2/3 will return to work over the next 6-8 months on the bull case. 

Base case for me is 50%

Bear case is 35% 

I really believe most of the jobs will come back......but it will take a lot longer than 6 months.....try 12-18 months. 

 

[sporthenry]

There you go talking about fundamentals

I agree with everything you are saying.  But if there's one thing that has become obvious over the last 10 or so years, it is that flows dominate over everything else.  Will that change due to fundamentals in a month or two?  I don't know.  But if you take Powell at his word with "whatever it takes", how bad could the pullback be, especially given the possibility that a second wave is worse than the first has become increasingly unlikely?

Very fair point. I mean since the GFC, as you mention, the market has been more technical driven than anything else. I never do well when I go outside my lanes with fundamentals in terms of asset classes and this time has been no different. Should just stick to looking at company fundamentals. But I hear ya. Like you said, Powell put a floor on stocks but at the same time, we also understand how this money flows. So is the best way to address this current situation, pumping money into a junk ETF? I mean most of that money has just made existing holders whole. Now you can argue lot of pension money in HY which is fair and restarting the capital markets is good. But I do tend to agree with folks that most of the Fed bailout is accruing to the asset holders. Then there is also reading between the lines. If the Fed and other central banks think we need even more stimulus, what are they seeing that we aren't?

 

[stbugs]

ROKU is the only stock I have left in the red  since acquired. A bit surprised by that so far. Thoughts?

I added twice, once in the 90s and once near the bottom in the 60s. I think it’s going to continue to do well. Their last warning was great just numbers wise but they did mention that advertising was down. That little caveat made them stop the run up. I think they’ll be fine if you are looking long term.

 

[caustic]

Think most would agree Trump is better for the market so while Biden isn't Warren/Sanders, still negative for the market. So will be interesting to see how the market starts to approaching the election. In some sense, the market may be better off not being at ATH for the election. 

This was part of the reason why I invested in a handful of renewable energy stocks recently. One of the few sectors that might rally on a Biden victory, IMO.

 

[Charlie Harper]

*Cloudera shares are trading higher after Morgan Stanley upgraded the company's stock from Equal-Weight to Overweight and raised the price target from $8 to $14.

Guys - don't miss the boat on CLDR - could be the next AMD......

What do you like about this company?

Took a look at their website and they have a lot of reputable companies using their services already. Why is it going to go higher?

 

[TripItUp]

I do believe 2/3 will return to work over the next 6 months on the bull case. 

Yeah, I would say 2/3 is bullish, but possible.   

 

[sporthenry]

At this point it's less about COVID spread and more about the damage that has already been done.

Of the 40 million people who lost their jobs, how many will get their jobs back etc. etc.

I mean, if COVID is truly behind us, I think a lot will get some job back. I'm of the belief that recessions aren't necessarily bad and without some rightsizing of companies, you end up with zombie companies. So you've had right sizing of work forces which will lead to productivity gains and hopefully that will be back filled with capital being put into new companies. 

But I think COVID is still a huge issue. Companies are prepping for massive disruptions due to COVID. But if you don't think so, cruise lines are still 60% off. 

 

[Todem]

Yeah, I would say 2/3 is bullish, but possible.   

If an aggressive infrastructure bill can pass it can happen. Also fortunately and as predicted the residential real estate market is not only holding up....but values are rising as I type this.

Inflation is real. And it will happen over the next couple of years.....big time.

 

[General Malaise]

This might be better off as its own thread, but I'll toss it out here as I'm keenly interested in the collective mind thought in here.

Situation:

You have a son who is about to turn 16.  He's a good kid, but has failed his permit test 4 times because he refuses to study the booklet and gets tripped up on signs.  Every. Single. Time.  He's had a full year to pass his permit test and the ambition is lacking.  So the runway to him getting his actual drivers license is a long one - he'll need to complete a 3 month Driver's Ed class to so we get a discount on insurance.

In addition, his 17 year old brother has a car, gifted to him by my dad.  The 17 year old will be a senior in the fall, assuming these kids ever go back to school.  Because auto insurance for teenagers is about as affordable as clothing a Kardashian for a month, we've all agreed that the two boys will share the current car gifted to my 17 year old for the upcoming school year.  They can also drive our mini-van - HOW COOL IS THAT!!!!! 

Furthermore, the 17 year old will NOT be taking his car to college his freshman year.  It's an added layer of cost in an egregiously expensive institution and if my wife and I had to go carless our freshmen years of college, by god, so can he.  So to the extent my soon to be 16 year old ever obtains his DL, he'll have use of older brother's car in a time share this upcoming school year and he'll have it exclusively for his senior year.  Good little car, Acura, lowish miles, impeccable shape, will run forever.  So we're good there.

Opportunity:

Because my dad is a very fair and kind hearted man, he made an agreement to give my soon to be 16 year old son the Kelly Blue Book value in cash of the Acura at the time he gifted it to us - roughly $4,000.  That cash is intended for the 16 year old to use for his own car purchase.  However, for the reasons spelled out above, we're not there yet and we aren't going to be adding a 3rd car to our fleet any time soon.  Hell, I don't even have a car and haven't for over a year.  It's wonderful.  I digress.  

Therefore, we have $4,000 to invest for the next 2 years, at least.  I am going to put this money into my Ameritrade account (which is virtually vacant now as I've moved almost 100% into Schwab) and with my guidance, let my son pick out 5 stocks to allocate to evenly with the money.

Your Very Best, Most Ironclad 5-10 Stonks

This is where you guys come in.  Put yourself in my shoes.  You've got $4,000 to invest in stonks on behalf of your child.  You've got a 2 year window at least with options to let it run.  You want to create something with your child that will give him or her some limited choices for investment while safeguarding them from buying risky names like their riverboat gambling father would purchase.  You want to give them perhaps 10 companies of which they can pick 5.  You'll allocate evenly and review quarterly.  You want to create and nurture the notion of investing in stocks for the long haul.  You want to preserve capital, but also grow it.  You want that $4,000 to grow so that by the time he/she is ready to buy a car in 2 years, there's more there there.

The 17 Year Old

In a separate arrangement, I will be buying my 17 year old a car after his freshman year of college, assuming he's done a yeoman's job and is on track to graduate in a timely manner, and I have no doubts that he will.  I left this part out, but was called on it correctly.  Like my dad, we'll keep things as even as possible.  I've already told him this and he's aware that upon completion of his freshman year, we're going car shopping.    Thanks @stbugs

TL;DR - My soon to be 16 year old son has $4,000 to invest with and I'm looking for your best 5-10 stonks that you'd park your own child's money into.  AND.......go!!!!
 

 

[NajehHejan]

What do you like about this company?

Took a look at their website and they have a lot of reputable companies using their services already. Why is it going to go higher?

I posted more a few pages back on CLDR but they report earnings today after close and they're expecting to show a profit of 1 or 2 cents a share - big milestone for this tech company that has been incurring losses quarter after quarter. I also think they'll smash revenues estimates. Growing tech company with a lot of upside. 

 

[stbugs]

This might be better off as its own thread, but I'll toss it out here as I'm keenly interested in the collective mind thought in here.

Situation:

You have a son who is about to turn 16.  He's a good kid, but has failed his permit test 4 times because he refuses to study the booklet and gets tripped up on signs.  Every. Single. Time.  He's had a full year to pass his permit test and the ambition is lacking.  So the runway to him getting his actual drivers license is a long one - he'll need to complete a 3 month Driver's Ed class to so we get a discount on insurance.

In addition, his 17 year old brother has a car, gifted to him by my dad.  The 17 year old will be a senior in the fall, assuming these kids ever go back to school.  Because auto insurance for teenagers is about as affordable as clothing a Kardashian for a month, we've all agreed that the two boys will share the current car gifted to my 17 year old for the upcoming school year.  They can also drive our mini-van - HOW COOL IS THAT!!!!! 

Furthermore, the 17 year old will NOT be taking his car to college his freshman year.  It's an added layer of cost in an egregiously expensive institution and if my wife and I had to go carless our freshmen years of college, by god, so can he.  So to the extent my soon to be 16 year old ever obtains his DL, he'll have use of older brother's car in a time share this upcoming school year and he'll have it exclusively for his senior year.  Good little car, Acura, lowish miles, impeccable shape, will run forever.  So we're good there.

Opportunity:

Because my dad is a very fair and kind hearted man, he made an agreement to give my soon to be 16 year old son the Kelly Blue Book value in cash of the Acura at the time he gifted it to us - roughly $4,000.  That cash is intended for the 16 year old to use for his own car purchase.  However, for the reasons spelled out above, we're not there yet and we aren't going to be adding a 3rd car to our fleet any time soon.  Hell, I don't even have a car and haven't for over a year.  It's wonderful.  I digress.  

Therefore, we have $4,000 to invest for the next 2 years, at least.  I am going to put this money into my Ameritrade account (which is virtually vacant now as I've moved almost 100% into Schwab) and with my guidance, let my son pick out 5 stocks to allocate to evenly with the money.

Your Very Best, Most Ironclad 5-10 Stonks

This is where you guys come in.  Put yourself in my shoes.  You've got $4,000 to invest in stonks on behalf of your child.  You've got a 2 year window at least with options to let it run.  You want to create something with your child that will give him or her some limited choices for investment while safeguarding them from buying risky names like their riverboat gambling father would purchase.  You want to give them perhaps 10 companies of which they can pick 5.  You'll allocate evenly and review quarterly.  You want to create and nurture the notion of investing in stocks for the long haul.  You want to preserve capital, but also grow it.  You want that $4,000 to grow so that by the time he/she is ready to buy a car in 2 years, there's more there there.

TL;DR - My soon to be 16 year old son has $4,000 to invest with and I'm looking for your best 5-10 stonks that you'd park your own child's money into.  AND.......go!!!!
 

I’m confused as to why the 16 year old will be able to use the car and gets the $4k. Seems like the 17 year old got a depreciating asset that isn’t even fully his and the 16 year who lacks the motivation of the 17 year old gets both money and use of the car to make it worth less.

Seems to me that the 17 year old motivated kid is getting the shaft.

 

[General Malaise]

I’m confused as to why the 16 year old will be able to use the car and gets the $4k. Seems like the 17 year old got a depreciating asset that isn’t even fully his and the 16 year who lacks the motivation of the 17 year old gets both money and use of the car to make it worth less.

Seems to me that the 17 year old motivated kid is getting the shaft.

Good point, let me edit and add to my post.  

 

[Todem]

This might be better off as its own thread, but I'll toss it out here as I'm keenly interested in the collective mind thought in here.

Situation:

You have a son who is about to turn 16.  He's a good kid, but has failed his permit test 4 times because he refuses to study the booklet and gets tripped up on signs.  Every. Single. Time.  He's had a full year to pass his permit test and the ambition is lacking.  So the runway to him getting his actual drivers license is a long one - he'll need to complete a 3 month Driver's Ed class to so we get a discount on insurance.

In addition, his 17 year old brother has a car, gifted to him by my dad.  The 17 year old will be a senior in the fall, assuming these kids ever go back to school.  Because auto insurance for teenagers is about as affordable as clothing a Kardashian for a month, we've all agreed that the two boys will share the current car gifted to my 17 year old for the upcoming school year.  They can also drive our mini-van - HOW COOL IS THAT!!!!! 

Furthermore, the 17 year old will NOT be taking his car to college his freshman year.  It's an added layer of cost in an egregiously expensive institution and if my wife and I had to go carless our freshmen years of college, by god, so can he.  So to the extent my soon to be 16 year old ever obtains his DL, he'll have use of older brother's car in a time share this upcoming school year and he'll have it exclusively for his senior year.  Good little car, Acura, lowish miles, impeccable shape, will run forever.  So we're good there.

Opportunity:

Because my dad is a very fair and kind hearted man, he made an agreement to give my soon to be 16 year old son the Kelly Blue Book value in cash of the Acura at the time he gifted it to us - roughly $4,000.  That cash is intended for the 16 year old to use for his own car purchase.  However, for the reasons spelled out above, we're not there yet and we aren't going to be adding a 3rd car to our fleet any time soon.  Hell, I don't even have a car and haven't for over a year.  It's wonderful.  I digress.  

Therefore, we have $4,000 to invest for the next 2 years, at least.  I am going to put this money into my Ameritrade account (which is virtually vacant now as I've moved almost 100% into Schwab) and with my guidance, let my son pick out 5 stocks to allocate to evenly with the money.

Your Very Best, Most Ironclad 5-10 Stonks

This is where you guys come in.  Put yourself in my shoes.  You've got $4,000 to invest in stonks on behalf of your child.  You've got a 2 year window at least with options to let it run.  You want to create something with your child that will give him or her some limited choices for investment while safeguarding them from buying risky names like their riverboat gambling father would purchase.  You want to give them perhaps 10 companies of which they can pick 5.  You'll allocate evenly and review quarterly.  You want to create and nurture the notion of investing in stocks for the long haul.  You want to preserve capital, but also grow it.  You want that $4,000 to grow so that by the time he/she is ready to buy a car in 2 years, there's more there there.

TL;DR - My soon to be 16 year old son has $4,000 to invest with and I'm looking for your best 5-10 stonks that you'd park your own child's money into.  AND.......go!!!!
 

Drop it in ADX

Top 10 holdings are as follows in order of weighting:

MSFT

AAPL

AMZN

GOOGL

UNITED HEALTH GROUP

Visa

JPM

HON 

Thermo Fisher

KO

It is currently trading at a 14% discount from it’s NAV (Net Asset Value) I gave this pick a while ago (20 plus percent ago). This is a high octane Large cap portfolio for those with limited funds, that want a good actively managed large cap growth portfolio. 

I have this in my sons UTMA for 15 years now and it has averaged north of 15% per year avg annal return during that time. It also pays an average of 1.34% distribution a year. So this is a growth play. 

 

[BassNBrew]

I’m confused as to why the 16 year old will be able to use the car and gets the $4k. Seems like the 17 year old got a depreciating asset that isn’t even fully his and the 16 year who lacks the motivation of the 17 year old gets both money and use of the car to make it worth less.

Seems to me that the 17 year old motivated kid is getting the shaft.

Based on that (depreciation asset), I'd by him some GE stock to even things up.

 

[BassNBrew]

Drop it in ADX

Top 10 holdings are as follows in order of weighting:

MSFT

AAPL

AMZN

GOOGL

UNITED HEALTH GROUP

Visa

JPM

HON 

Thermo Fisher

KO

It is currently trading at a 14% discount from it’s NAV (Net Asset Value) I gave this pick a while ago (20 plus percent ago). This is a high octane Large cap portfolio for those with limited funds, that want a good actively managed large cap growth portfolio. 

I have this in my sons UTMA for 15 years now and it has averaged north of 15% per year avg annal return during that time. It also pays an average of 1.34% distribution a year. So this is a growth play. 

Winner...

 

[CR69]

I have entered my final short position on MGM, 9/18 16p. 

The wife and I go to Vegas very regularly and I'm on a couple of Vegas boards. There are certainly some people that are going this week and next but most seem to be in the waiting to see how it all works out camp. I also have a buddy that is a hard core gambler that went to a local and hated having to wear a mask and said the vibe just wasn't that same so they're not going to Vegas until things are "normal" which is where I'm at. 

I'm also seeing better offers from casinos than ever before which leads me to believe that demand isn't quite there after the initial surge. I'm getting offers with more free nights than normal as well as 2-3x the normal amount of free play or dining credit. 

Maybe I'm wrong but MGM has also run up much quicker than the other casino stocks thanks to the RH gang. They have almost no regional presence and due to their restructuring and selling of properties, their costs are fairly fixed in addition to taking on new debt. 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

This might be better off as its own thread, but I'll toss it out here as I'm keenly interested in the collective mind thought in here.

Situation:

You have a son who is about to turn 16.  He's a good kid, but has failed his permit test 4 times because he refuses to study the booklet and gets tripped up on signs.  Every. Single. Time.  He's had a full year to pass his permit test and the ambition is lacking.  So the runway to him getting his actual drivers license is a long one - he'll need to complete a 3 month Driver's Ed class to so we get a discount on insurance.

In addition, his 17 year old brother has a car, gifted to him by my dad.  The 17 year old will be a senior in the fall, assuming these kids ever go back to school.  Because auto insurance for teenagers is about as affordable as clothing a Kardashian for a month, we've all agreed that the two boys will share the current car gifted to my 17 year old for the upcoming school year.  They can also drive our mini-van - HOW COOL IS THAT!!!!! 

Furthermore, the 17 year old will NOT be taking his car to college his freshman year.  It's an added layer of cost in an egregiously expensive institution and if my wife and I had to go carless our freshmen years of college, by god, so can he.  So to the extent my soon to be 16 year old ever obtains his DL, he'll have use of older brother's car in a time share this upcoming school year and he'll have it exclusively for his senior year.  Good little car, Acura, lowish miles, impeccable shape, will run forever.  So we're good there.

Opportunity:

Because my dad is a very fair and kind hearted man, he made an agreement to give my soon to be 16 year old son the Kelly Blue Book value in cash of the Acura at the time he gifted it to us - roughly $4,000.  That cash is intended for the 16 year old to use for his own car purchase.  However, for the reasons spelled out above, we're not there yet and we aren't going to be adding a 3rd car to our fleet any time soon.  Hell, I don't even have a car and haven't for over a year.  It's wonderful.  I digress.  

Therefore, we have $4,000 to invest for the next 2 years, at least.  I am going to put this money into my Ameritrade account (which is virtually vacant now as I've moved almost 100% into Schwab) and with my guidance, let my son pick out 5 stocks to allocate to evenly with the money.

Your Very Best, Most Ironclad 5-10 Stonks

This is where you guys come in.  Put yourself in my shoes.  You've got $4,000 to invest in stonks on behalf of your child.  You've got a 2 year window at least with options to let it run.  You want to create something with your child that will give him or her some limited choices for investment while safeguarding them from buying risky names like their riverboat gambling father would purchase.  You want to give them perhaps 10 companies of which they can pick 5.  You'll allocate evenly and review quarterly.  You want to create and nurture the notion of investing in stocks for the long haul.  You want to preserve capital, but also grow it.  You want that $4,000 to grow so that by the time he/she is ready to buy a car in 2 years, there's more there there.

TL;DR - My soon to be 16 year old son has $4,000 to invest with and I'm looking for your best 5-10 stonks that you'd park your own child's money into.  AND.......go!!!!
 

Consider going the opposite direction. Let him pick an unlimited number of stocks/companies he's interested in. Then work through them together to find 5 winners. This way you engage him and he owns things he's interested in.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Yeah, I'd love to provide him with AMZN and GOOG, but I'd like more than 2 stocks in this portfolio.

Pretty much everyone offers fractional shares now.

 

[General Malaise]

Consider going the opposite direction. Let him pick an unlimited number of stocks/companies he's interested in. Then work through them together to find 5 winners. This way you engage him and he owns things he's interested in.

Yeah, you guys should meet.  Then you might understand a little better.  I could hire Matt Foley to move into his room and he still wouldn't find the motivation to get started on this.

 

[General Malaise]

Pretty much everyone offers fractional shares now.

How do I do that?

 

[ghostguy123]

Dave and buster up 25% today.  Good grief.  Robinhood revolution?

So are all these new people going to actually keep their money in the market or will they all be pulling out the money to go party when things open?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Yeah, you guys should meet.  Then you might understand a little better.  I could hire Matt Foley to move into his room and he still wouldn't find the motivation to get started on this.

Naked jump party as a reward?

 

[General Malaise]

Naked jump party as a reward?

His girlfriend is coming over tonight.  I'll ask her for her best ideas on stocks.  Maybe she can get him interested in this.  

 

[sporthenry]

I have entered my final short position on MGM, 9/18 16p. 

The wife and I go to Vegas very regularly and I'm on a couple of Vegas boards. There are certainly some people that are going this week and next but most seem to be in the waiting to see how it all works out camp. I also have a buddy that is a hard core gambler that went to a local and hated having to wear a mask and said the vibe just wasn't that same so they're not going to Vegas until things are "normal" which is where I'm at. 

I'm also seeing better offers from casinos than ever before which leads me to believe that demand isn't quite there after the initial surge. I'm getting offers with more free nights than normal as well as 2-3x the normal amount of free play or dining credit. 

Maybe I'm wrong but MGM has also run up much quicker than the other casino stocks thanks to the RH gang. They have almost no regional presence and due to their restructuring and selling of properties, their costs are fairly fixed in addition to taking on new debt. 

Best of luck.  You do have some time on your hand. I will say, I actually like MGM the most and know a few here do as well. I don't think since Feb, it has outperformed appreciably. I have them down ~40% since mid-Feb. BYD and WYNN are ~35%. RRR and ERI are ~45%. PENN is noticeable outperformer and screams short to me but I've also lost my shirt on it. Hoping to not lose everything on it. 

While MGM does have large exposure to strip, they also have a healthy regional and China presence. Strip is ~50% of earnings, think regional is ~30% and China is 20%. So it will hurt but won't go to 0. MGM is also one of the best capitalized operator. Know others have taken steps to shore up their liquidity. Lastly, while they have leased properties, they own something like 60-70% of the REIT. So they're taking money out of their left pocket and putting 70% of it in their right pocket. Much better situation than PENN or even ERI.

I understand the regional play as they'll open up and get some customers sooner. Only reason I've only sold puts on MGM as opposed to going outright long it is b/c of their strip. But I have MGM as the cheapest casino on an EV/EBITDA basis (excl. ERI because haven't considered the merger) with great liquidity and great assets (historically speaking). 

 

[caustic]

Holding the bag as NVAX just took an enormous dump. Trump administration selected 5 covid vaccine candidates as finalists, and they didn't make the list. The 5 companies were MRNA, AZN, JNJ, MRK, AND PFE.

 

[CR69]

Best of luck.  You do have some time on your hand. I will say, I actually like MGM the most and know a few here do as well. I don't think since Feb, it has outperformed appreciably. I have them down ~40% since mid-Feb. BYD and WYNN are ~35%. RRR and ERI are ~45%. PENN is noticeable outperformer and screams short to me but I've also lost my shirt on it. Hoping to not lose everything on it. 

While MGM does have large exposure to strip, they also have a healthy regional and China presence. Strip is ~50% of earnings, think regional is ~30% and China is 20%. So it will hurt but won't go to 0. MGM is also one of the best capitalized operator. Know others have taken steps to shore up their liquidity. Lastly, while they have leased properties, they own something like 60-70% of the REIT. So they're taking money out of their left pocket and putting 70% of it in their right pocket. Much better situation than PENN or even ERI.

I understand the regional play as they'll open up and get some customers sooner. Only reason I've only sold puts on MGM as opposed to going outright long it is b/c of their strip. But I have MGM as the cheapest casino on an EV/EBITDA basis (excl. ERI because haven't considered the merger) with great liquidity and great assets (historically speaking). 

They do have the Macau income but every update I've seen on those numbers continues to be horrible. Even after opening they were down 93% YoY in May. 

I do agree on the numbers since March, but their recent run up has been much quicker than other companies. They also just took on another $750m in debt. 

Very possible I'm wrong and punt a bunch of cash. If not then I'll have a hell of a bankroll when we go to back lol. Appreciate the thoughts. 

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I don’t hate MGM—as I am a land owner in Vegas and I’m rooting for a comeback—but if I had to bet on a Vegas casino company—I think I’d probably go with Las Vegas Sands.   They have a bigger and better presence in Macao and I feel like their properties are nicer and cater to bigger and better gamblers.   In the world of casino stocks in this thread—seems like Las Vegas Sands is very much getting overlooked in my opinion. 

 

[sporthenry]

They do have the Macau income but every update I've seen on those numbers continues to be horrible. Even after opening they were down 93% YoY in May. 

I do agree on the numbers since March, but their recent run up has been much quicker than other companies. They also just took on another $750m in debt. 

Very possible I'm wrong and punt a bunch of cash. If not then I'll have a hell of a bankroll when we go to back lol. Appreciate the thoughts. 

Fair. Don't get me wrong. I'm short PENN and effectively short casinos by not being long any of the others. But with that Macau data, WYNN screams like a bigger loser. 70% from Macau earnings. Rest is derived from Strip with growing Boston business that will seemingly get crushed. And trades much higher than MGM. I may be accounting for MGM's ownership of MGP differently than most but I have MGM at ~7.2x 2019 earnings vs WYNN at 10.2x. Obviously, those earnings are gone for the time being but I look at it more for relative comparison sake. Obviously, WYNN always traded at a premium but will it get 20%-30% more earnings back or faster than MGM? 

 

[McBokonon]

His girlfriend is coming over tonight.  I'll ask her for her best ideas on stocks.  Maybe she can get him interested in this.  

Does she know about the minivan? You might want to just get 4K worth of condoms.

 

[Guinis72]

The all-time high in my rollover IRA was on 2/19.  From there, I made every mistake you can make, holding through the crash and then selling at the low and missing that +10% day.  Overall, I was down 35% from my high and pretty bummed I thought I did few year's damage to my retirement fund.  Thanks to this message board (and telecommuting), as of today, my account is at a new high!  I have many of you to thank for that.  It's been an exhausting & fun battle back with the help of BLMN, DFS, MGM, CYDY, MAR, JETS, DKNG, GNUS (sold today at 140% return), ALLY, MGM, KSS, DIS, BA, etc.  So, just wanted to say thank you to Todem and all the others for sharing their knowledge and great tips in here.  I couldn't have done it without you, or being able to work from home.   Now all I want to do is cash out and hoard my cash until the end of the year (besides CYDY, of course)! 

 

[ConstruxBoy]

This might be better off as its own thread, but I'll toss it out here as I'm keenly interested in the collective mind thought in here.

Situation:

You have a son who is about to turn 16.  He's a good kid, but has failed his permit test 4 times because he refuses to study the booklet and gets tripped up on signs.  Every. Single. Time.  He's had a full year to pass his permit test and the ambition is lacking.  So the runway to him getting his actual drivers license is a long one - he'll need to complete a 3 month Driver's Ed class to so we get a discount on insurance.

In addition, his 17 year old brother has a car, gifted to him by my dad.  The 17 year old will be a senior in the fall, assuming these kids ever go back to school.  Because auto insurance for teenagers is about as affordable as clothing a Kardashian for a month, we've all agreed that the two boys will share the current car gifted to my 17 year old for the upcoming school year.  They can also drive our mini-van - HOW COOL IS THAT!!!!! 

Furthermore, the 17 year old will NOT be taking his car to college his freshman year.  It's an added layer of cost in an egregiously expensive institution and if my wife and I had to go carless our freshmen years of college, by god, so can he.  So to the extent my soon to be 16 year old ever obtains his DL, he'll have use of older brother's car in a time share this upcoming school year and he'll have it exclusively for his senior year.  Good little car, Acura, lowish miles, impeccable shape, will run forever.  So we're good there.

Opportunity:

Because my dad is a very fair and kind hearted man, he made an agreement to give my soon to be 16 year old son the Kelly Blue Book value in cash of the Acura at the time he gifted it to us - roughly $4,000.  That cash is intended for the 16 year old to use for his own car purchase.  However, for the reasons spelled out above, we're not there yet and we aren't going to be adding a 3rd car to our fleet any time soon.  Hell, I don't even have a car and haven't for over a year.  It's wonderful.  I digress.  

Therefore, we have $4,000 to invest for the next 2 years, at least.  I am going to put this money into my Ameritrade account (which is virtually vacant now as I've moved almost 100% into Schwab) and with my guidance, let my son pick out 5 stocks to allocate to evenly with the money.

Your Very Best, Most Ironclad 5-10 Stonks

This is where you guys come in.  Put yourself in my shoes.  You've got $4,000 to invest in stonks on behalf of your child.  You've got a 2 year window at least with options to let it run.  You want to create something with your child that will give him or her some limited choices for investment while safeguarding them from buying risky names like their riverboat gambling father would purchase.  You want to give them perhaps 10 companies of which they can pick 5.  You'll allocate evenly and review quarterly.  You want to create and nurture the notion of investing in stocks for the long haul.  You want to preserve capital, but also grow it.  You want that $4,000 to grow so that by the time he/she is ready to buy a car in 2 years, there's more there there.

The 17 Year Old

In a separate arrangement, I will be buying my 17 year old a car after his freshman year of college, assuming he's done a yeoman's job and is on track to graduate in a timely manner, and I have no doubts that he will.  I left this part out, but was called on it correctly.  Like my dad, we'll keep things as even as possible.  I've already told him this and he's aware that upon completion of his freshman year, we're going car shopping.    Thanks @stbugs

TL;DR - My soon to be 16 year old son has $4,000 to invest with and I'm looking for your best 5-10 stonks that you'd park your own child's money into.  AND.......go!!!!
 

I have both my girls in USMV. Simple and cheap. 

 

[CR69]

Fair. Don't get me wrong. I'm short PENN and effectively short casinos by not being long any of the others. But with that Macau data, WYNN screams like a bigger loser. 70% from Macau earnings. Rest is derived from Strip with growing Boston business that will seemingly get crushed. And trades much higher than MGM. I may be accounting for MGM's ownership of MGP differently than most but I have MGM at ~7.2x 2019 earnings vs WYNN at 10.2x. Obviously, those earnings are gone for the time being but I look at it more for relative comparison sake. Obviously, WYNN always traded at a premium but will it get 20%-30% more earnings back or faster than MGM? 

I would be short Wynn as well but damn those are expensive premiums lol. I also feel that they will recover quicker than places like MGM or CZR due to their clientele. Rich people have not felt the weight of this recession nearly to the levels that the lower and middle class have. Sure MGM has Aria and Bellagio, but the rest of their properties are targeted towards middle class customers. How much disposable income do they have right now? I guess we'll find out soon enough. They also sold off Circus Circus which was a cash cow due to the low debt service. 

As an investor, I don't like their approach. It was all geared towards raising cash to get in on the Japan market but that seems off the radar for now. Blackstone owns half of the REITS they sold MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay to. MGM is also paying $240m a year to Blackstone for Bellagio. 

As a customer I am also not impressed. They penny pinch and nickle and dime their customers to death, like Caesars. The moves they've made over the last few years have turned a lot of customers, like me, away. 

 

[NajehHejan]

GO COTY! GO GO GO!! NEXT STOP, $6!!!

STONKS GO UP!!!

 

[bcnfinance]

I have entered my final short position on MGM, 9/18 16p. 

The wife and I go to Vegas very regularly and I'm on a couple of Vegas boards. There are certainly some people that are going this week and next but most seem to be in the waiting to see how it all works out camp. I also have a buddy that is a hard core gambler that went to a local and hated having to wear a mask and said the vibe just wasn't that same so they're not going to Vegas until things are "normal" which is where I'm at. 

I'm also seeing better offers from casinos than ever before which leads me to believe that demand isn't quite there after the initial surge. I'm getting offers with more free nights than normal as well as 2-3x the normal amount of free play or dining credit. 

Maybe I'm wrong but MGM has also run up much quicker than the other casino stocks thanks to the RH gang. They have almost no regional presence and due to their restructuring and selling of properties, their costs are fairly fixed in addition to taking on new debt. 

How much does the RH volume impact a stock with this type of market cap?

 

[pmedina]

Is BA a long term hold for anyone?

 

[ex-ghost]

GNUS back up at $7.27. 

Question: Vanguard account, bought GNUS this morning, attempting to sell today and get the freeriding message. Is there a way for me to be allowed to buy and sell the same day?

 

[TripItUp]

How much does the RH volume impact a stock with this type of market cap?

not at all

 

[beef]

Just scooped up some COTY at 4.46. A Cosmetics giant that has had its stock price obliterated due to Covid. The 5 year chart ain't pretty either - looking for a quick 50% and then I'm probably out. They have a deal with a Kardashian girl and another deal in the works with another one. Other than that and stonks go up, no other reason to buy. Just wanted to alert you all as the cheap stocks can get you good quick gains. 

I tailed you on this.  Nothing huge.  More like Kardashian brain size position, not butt size.  

 

[caustic]

At +200% on GNUS now, pushing $8. 

 

[Sputnikv8]

At +200% on GNUS now, pushing $8. 

Well done.

I had to bail out.  I wasn't able to babysit this and didn't know what limit to even set since this doesn't make sense.  Good find and quick profit here.

 

[beef]

At +200% on GNUS now, pushing $8. 

Vol at 316M+.  If these shares fly a little faster it might break the speed of light.  Buy orders hit before you even place them.  

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Yeah, you guys should meet.  Then you might understand a little better.  I could hire Matt Foley to move into his room and he still wouldn't find the motivation to get started on this.

I did this with my daughter on the last plane trip we took. Captive audience. The list she generated (and she got into it once we started):

LULU
SBUX
GOOGL
NFLX
AMZN
HELE
PINS
SNAP
AAPL
WMT
VFC
ULTA
LVMH
DIS
EL

 

[Sputnikv8]

I did this with my daughter on the last plane trip we took. Captive audience. The list she generated (and she got into it once we started):

LULU
SBUX
GOOGL
NFLX
AMZN
HELE
PINS
SNAP
AAPL
WMT
VFC
ULTA
LVMH
DIS
EL

Well if you repeated yourself twice on the plane...she probably just said "FINE!" 

 

[Todem]

Is BA a long term hold for anyone?

In another 2 years or so.....people will look back at when they could have bought BA at 100 at one point as they see $325 price per share go by on the ticker on CNBC.

Yeah we are long on BA.

In 5 plus years this stock can absolutely reach over $400 a share. They have a lot of mud to wade through. But once they re-instate the dividend it will not be as painful a slog back to those levels. 

We are aggressive BA buyers 3/16 - 3/23 and then again 5/14 I believe at $115 and change. 

Stay long.

 

[General Malaise]

I did this with my daughter on the last plane trip we took. Captive audience. The list she generated (and she got into it once we started):

LULU
SBUX
GOOGL
NFLX
AMZN
HELE
PINS
SNAP
AAPL
WMT
VFC
ULTA
LVMH
DIS
EL

Thanks GB.  Appreciate the feedback.  

 

[Bossman]

Yeah, you guys should meet.  Then you might understand a little better.  I could hire Matt Foley to move into his room and he still wouldn't find the motivation to get started on this.

lemme guess ... he plays the video games. The #1 reason boys don't leave the house. Who needs a drivers license?

I would put $2k in VGT and $2k in VCR (Vanguard ETF's)

If you use Vanguard as a broker, I don't think there are any fees.

This gives you a bit of AMZN, APPL, MSFT, Home Depot, Lowes, Tesla, McDonalds, .. as well as lots of other of what I consider "blue chip" stonks.

VGT Holdings

VCR Holdings

 

[General Malaise]

lemme guess ... he plays the video games. The #1 reason boys don't leave the house. Who needs a drivers license?

I would put $2k in VGT and $2k in VCR (Vanguard ETF's)

If you use Vanguard as a broker, I don't think there are any fees.

This gives you a bit of AMZN, APPL, MSFT, Home Depot, Lowes, Tesla, McDonalds, .. as well as lots of other of what I consider "blue chip" stonks.

VGT Holdings

VCR Holdings

He does on his Chromebook.  We don't have a video game machine in our house, but he'll play with his buddies using that.  His GF takes up a lot of his time too (pre-quarantine in person and quarantine via phone).  To his credit, he's two sport athlete so this school shutdown really kicks him in the jimmy.  He's also pretty beat up over the failed permit test, but each time, it's his stubbornness and not his intellect that stood in his way.  

I like the angle of mutual funds, but I much prefer the individual stock picking element to this.  I've got some ideas of my own - blue chips, things that throw off cash.  Anyhow, much appreciate any and all feedback.  You guys know your chit and I say that as a guy that's been in the hedge fund world since '99. 

 

[Al Czervik]

Out of MGM at $20.20 for a 64% gain.

 

[CR69]

How much does the RH volume impact a stock with this type of market cap?

No idea honestly but there definitely seems to be a correlation in my opinion