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CR69 said:
The put/call ratio on SPY jumped to 1.458 this morning...
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Double the average or what is consider a good balance, right?

Assuming .7 is still considered the good/safe balance range?

 
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beef said:
Double the average or what is consider a good balance, right?
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Yeah I think 0.8-1 is considered "normal" anything below and it can be considered a bearish indicator since the market is high on a particular stock or index. But as we've seen over the last two months, that doesn't necessarily mean it's heading down any time soon. 

 
Ah, I guess YTD I'm up a little, just under 3%. I was looking from the high. Still down around $40k from February. 

 
BassNBrew said:
I nibbled.  Been more focused on SEA.  Thanks for the heads up, you are good at this.
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No problem. It’s more luck, but I do like some of the Motley Fool info I’ve gone through. Gave me a nice list of stocks to consider. That makes it easier. I’m not close to a pro, but I do enjoy it and I’ve done well avoiding sone things I didn’t really like. That’s a big key. Only 2 mistakes out of 30+ picks and the top picks have dwarfed those losses so much that they don’t matter.

 
Chaz McNulty said:
1 Million shares traded in the first half hour.  Something is going on.
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Not sure if anything is going on more than people realizing there’s potential good news coming. Seems to be an accumulation thinking that an uplisting/good trial results could be big. I have no idea how big but with the ridiculous RH rides we’ve seen getting on a real exchange can’t come soon enough.

 
berndog said:
I’ve been sitting at the train station watching SE disappear down the tracks. Yesterday (or a month ago) would have been a better time to but I’m buying a few tickets for this ride today. 
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I feel the same way about NIO.

that thing has been on a tear since I first looked at it a few weeks ago. From mid 3 to over 7. I haven't pounced, small Chinese company, but man that thing has been kicking butt every day.

 
Some news of a patient in one of the trials in Georgia.  The portion below is down towards the middle of the article.

Chris Riley, a lobbyist and former chief of staff to Gov. Nathan Deal, started feeling achy in mid-March, a few days after learning about state legislators testing positive for the coronavirus.

At first, he noticed a loss of taste and smell. Then, he said, he developed fatigue and a “hard headache” that couldn’t be dulled by Advil or Tylenol. Little by little, the 51-year-old’s headaches started to dissipate, his fever broke, and he was better. Or so he thought.

“I started training for an Ironman (triathlon) again,” said Riley, who lives in Gainesville.

But his running pace was way off. He felt anxious and was having trouble sleeping. His blood pressure was unusually high. And, all of a sudden, he depended on reading glasses. Even so, he dismissed the symptoms as part of life or the aging process. Maybe, he thought to himself, he just needed to train harder.

But his physician, Dr. Reisman, knew better. Reisman kept in close touch with Riley, monitoring his vitals and overall health. Riley’s blood pressure, usually about 125 over 60, was around 180 over 100.

Riley didn’t need to go the hospital, but Reisman knew his patient was not over the coronavirus.

Reisman knew about a post-COVID trial for survivors of mild to moderate COVID-19 symptoms. Riley enrolled in the clinical trial for leronlimab, a drug that was originally developed to treat HIV, but is showing promise in the coronavirus fight. He had four injections in his stomach over two weeks.

Riley said he immediately felt better. He returned to a faster pace, his blood pressure returned to normal and the other symptoms – the anxiety, the insomnia — faded.

It’s possible he was given a placebo or perhaps it was time that helped him heal, but Riley is confident that it was the leronlimab.

Dr. Chris Recknor, a Gainesville internist who runs one of the six sites for the leronlimab clinical trial, is also a COVID-19 survivor.

He first got sick in April, starting with an intense headache. Then, he started bumping into things and saw floaters in his eyes. Those aren’t the most common coronavirus symptoms, but he knew something wasn’t right and decided to get tested to, if nothing else, rule out the infectious virus. The test was positive.

His conditioned worsened to the point where he thought he might have a heart attack. He ended up in ER at Northeast Georgia Medical Center three times and was twice admitted for overnight stays.

“I felt like my heart was pumping so hard, it felt like it was coming out of my ears,” he said.

His physician at the hospital obtained “compassionate use” permission from the Food and Drug Administration to prescribe leronlimab.
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The more people know... wish they'd publish Dr.P's paper.  #CYDY

 
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Market is calm. Feels normal again if for a fleeting moment.

So....please stay this way for another 3 weeks. We are closing on our forever home June 29th. Heading to a Perfect Game Tourney (I coach my sons high school summer baseball program 16U team) July 2nd-6th then move in week begins July 7th. Just stay normal.....please. LOL.

For our Onion brigade......sit tight. We will get an eventual pop to the 13’s range no doubt in my mind at all. Longer view is 14-17 per share easy. It has been an easy trade for months....and it seems it has cooled off for the quick intra-day trades for the time being. 

All in all though it feels nice to have a normal market....1% moves....I like boring. I like it a lot.

 
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Jayrok said:
Some news of a patient in one of the trials in Georgia.  

The more people know... wish they'd publish Dr.P's paper.  #CYDY
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Not that I want to see more cases but with all this second wave talk rising, an uplisting and good results could be huge. Again, talking stock wise only although as I know I said months ago, wouldn’t it be great to see LebronLimeade be a legit cure that gets approved. I for one wouldn’t mind seeing that happen because it would be gold (typo, meant to type good, but I guess this works too) all around.

 
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I haven't done as good a job at DCA my BLMN stock as you all have. Right now my holdings average $12.43. Thinking I may dip into the sauce a little more today since I missed on yesterday's drop. Good or bad idea? Seems like @Todem is at least confident that it's not overly problematic. Not much else seems like a value right now. Also sitting on MGM @ $21.79 cost basis. Not sure if I'm better off DCAing that one down or BLMN. Thoughts?

 
stbugs said:
@sporthenry Hmm, you were mentioning the triple witching or whatever for expirations, but everything seems really calm. My portfolio and the 3 indices all within 1-1.18% up. I have a few stocks up a little over 2% and some a tiny bit negative but 0 big movers like I’ve seen every day for 3 months. Eerily calm. 
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Yeah, I mentioned something yesterday, this week has been relatively calm. The quad witching with all the options expiring doesn’t necessarily mean higher volatility. Just the potential if the market gets caught offsides.  Given things have been rangebound, it can almost have the opposite effect. A dampening effect. I’m not actively trading around it but I’d assume it’ll be a day of chop. You already saw some selling from the top, wouldn’t be surprised if that continues. The last hour of the day is when things could get interesting. Options essentially move in line with the index and stocks. So if you assume market makers are long stocks to offset their call exposure, as folks sell their calls, market makers sell their stocks. That depends how much option volume is rolled over. 

 
Polish Hammer said:
I haven't done as good a job at DCA my BLMN stock as you all have. Right now my holdings average $12.43. Thinking I may dip into the sauce a little more today since I missed on yesterday's drop. Good or bad idea? Seems like @Todem is at least confident that it's not overly problematic. Not much else seems like a value right now. Also sitting on MGM @ $21.79 cost basis. Not sure if I'm better off DCAing that one down or BLMN. Thoughts?
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Corona hurts MGM more than Blooming.  MGM is about 55-60% of its 52 wk high, Bloomin is about 40-45%.

 
Last hour or so might be more active. 

SE went up and sniffed 110 but didn't quite make it. It tried to have a decent dip yesterday (I added at 103 something) but ended up barely down because it doesn't know how to fail.

 
I just asked the wife if I should sell a bit of this CYDY windfall that I read about on my magic football forum.

She said “nah”.

All in.

 
Hot off the Robintrack is BYFC - Broadway Financial.  Up around 300% at one time this morning.   Number of RH users holding it on 6/17 = 928.  On 6/18 = 6,221.  And now = 18,000+.  5,000 people sure got a nice tip, while 12,000 might be getting squeezed as the price is dropping.

I need to start spending more of my evenings looking at RH holders increasing on stocks that aren't moving.  Yet...

 
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Polish Hammer said:
I haven't done as good a job at DCA my BLMN stock as you all have. Right now my holdings average $12.43. Thinking I may dip into the sauce a little more today since I missed on yesterday's drop. Good or bad idea? Seems like @Todem is at least confident that it's not overly problematic. Not much else seems like a value right now. Also sitting on MGM @ $21.79 cost basis. Not sure if I'm better off DCAing that one down or BLMN. Thoughts?
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They are both good companies. BLMN is straddled with a lot of debt...no doubt. But they are a massive brand in casual dine and have a great product. 

Carraba’s and Bonefish Grill are very good casual dine restaurants IMO. Very consistent food and great service typically. Outback IMO is a fun place to eat too for an easy and affordable steak, ribs or chicken. 

I can only speak for South Florida.....Outback is always packed and always has a wait on the weekends down here. If you do not call ahead on the weekends....you will wait 30-45 minutes for a table. Bonefish is also quite busy. Carraba’s depends on location. But we love their food. They are a good italian grill. Chicken and steaks are always very tasty, pasta is always good, salads as well. It is good food.

I think the brand is strong and the brand loyalty by their patrons is even stronger. 

I would not sweat BLMN at all. The stock will be fine. Just sit tight. If you want to average down today....not a problem with that at all. I think it will pop again in the near future. 

 
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beef said:
Hot off the Robintrack is BYFC - Broadway Financial.  Up around 300% at one time this morning.   Number of RH users holding it on 6/17 = 928.  On 6/18 = 6,221.  And now = 18,000+.  5,000 people sure got a nice tip, while 12,000 might be getting squeezed as the price is dropping.

I need to start spending more of my evenings looking at RH holders increasing on stocks that aren't moving.
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I hear of so many of these that are going to be "next" to soar, but most of them are duds.  Wish we could pinpoint which stock is building up to pop.  You might be on to something with the # of users holding increases over a couple of days.  No rhyme or reason with which stocks get pumped other than SP being around a buck and a low float.  

 
For those wondering about the technicals today, CNBC at least highlights some of it. Also have some index rebalancing which could cause some hiccups. You may be able to get some discounts in the last hour or so. For me, the risk/reward coming into this week was skewed to the downside. A sell off could have easily been exacerbated by the option expiry. I’m not saying we’re going up or down from here but how high do folks thing we can go? For massive sell offs like we had in February, you need technicals to accelerate it. They lined up this week but doesn’t always happen. 
 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/19/trading-could-get-wacky-friday-because-of-some-technical-stock-market-circumstances.html

 
Todem said:
They are both good companies. BLMN is straddled with a lot of debt...no doubt. But they are a massive brand in casual dine and have a great product. 

Carraba’s and Bonefish Grill are very good casual dine restaurants IMO. Very consistent food and great service typically. Outback IMO is a fun place to eat too for an easy and affordable steak, ribs or chicken. 

I can only speak for South Florida.....Outback is always packed and always has a wait on the weekends down here. If you do to call ahead on the weekends....you will wait 30-45 minutes for a table. Bonefish is also quite busy. Carraba’s depends on location. But we love their food. They are a good italian grill. Chicken and steaks are always very tasty, pasta is always good, salads as well. It is good food.

I think the brand is strong and the brand loyalty by their patrons is even stronger. 

I would not sweat BLMN at all. The stock will be fine. Just sit tight. If you want to average down today....not a problem with that at all. I think it will pop again in the near future. 
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Yep

We celebrated father's day with the in-laws last weekend, BIL gave BLMN gift cards to FIL. I casually ask which restaurants they like, almost everyone loves them all. 

We gave him a home Depot gift card. Which we bought using the discover card. 

 
Posting this mainly for @matuski because I know he tailed but doing it here instead of PM in case anyone else is in NKLA.

Fairly convincing bearish short term case for NKLA here: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4353958-nikola-impending-free-trading-shares-will-cause-imminent-crash-to-less-20

Cliff's notes version of the article:

Current NKLA float is 23 million shares.  PIPE investors (private investors that were given private shares for an early investment) currently own 52 million shares at a cost basis of $10 each.  So far those shares are locked and untradeabale, but NKLA filed last week to give them the ability to unlock them.  Once those shares unlock, there will be 52 million new shares (twice the current float) entering the market.  If those owners hold those shares that makes no difference.  But given those owners got those shares at $10 each and they are currently sitting on a 670% profit there is speculation that there will be a lot of profit taking (selling) amongst those 52 million shares, which could drop the stock very quickly.

There is lots of back and forth on whether those owners were sell (they aren't retail investors, but rather typical long term investors like Fidelity).  A lot of people think they will hold for the long term.  The author makes a fair point that the abnormally high borrow rates and put prices may be a strong indication that they are planning to sell, because who would be crazy enough to pay those rates other than people currently sitting on a 670% gain who are looking to hedge and lock in profits until they can sell?

The big piece of missing information is what date the PIPE shares will unlock.  If they unlock after warrant exercise date then it is irrelevant to us warrant holders because our potential huge gain is in exercising the warrants while the stock price stays flat.  The risk is if the PIPE shares unlock before we can exercise our warrants AND the PIPE investors sell at large scale.  That would tank the share price to a point that eliminates our warrant arbitrage and down potentially even into a loss.

I've seen some people float July 6th as the unlock date for PIPE shares which would be fine for us as we can exercise the warrants a few days before that.  However I've also seen people say they unlock as early as this coming Monday which could be a problem.

I bring this up because if I recall you got the warrants around a cost basis of $30 and it's not far off from that now, so if this is too risky for you it is an opportunity to get out at a small loss.

Personally I have 1000 warrants at a cost basis of $18 and I am going back and forth onto whether to just sell the warrants now for an $11k gain (and potentially buy back in next week if the PIPE shares don't unlock on Monday, with the risk that I miss it because a lot of other people buy the warrants if that date goes by with no action to close the warrant price closer to the $11.50 gap with shares it should have), or if I will just hold and hope that NKLA stays flat until early July which would net me $37.5k.

 
Jayrok said:
I hear of so many of these that are going to be "next" to soar, but most of them are duds.  Wish we could pinpoint which stock is building up to pop.  You might be on to something with the # of users holding increases over a couple of days.  No rhyme or reason with which stocks get pumped other than SP being around a buck and a low float.  
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I'm sure plenty of others have already started doing it.  The number of RH related articles that his my google news feed climbs every day.  It would be interesting to see how many stocks would fit the criteria.  Could be a lot and having to throw in more $ than I'd want on a bunch stocks in order to hit one though. 

 
Buddy of mine recommended INN. Looks like a good entry point. Bounce back candidate in the hotel/lodging space that you can get for relatively cheap right now. Doing more research, wanted to share with folks.

 
Todem said:
They are both good companies. BLMN is straddled with a lot of debt...no doubt. But they are a massive brand in casual dine and have a great product. 

Carraba’s and Bonefish Grill are very good casual dine restaurants IMO. Very consistent food and great service typically. Outback IMO is a fun place to eat too for an easy and affordable steak, ribs or chicken. 

I can only speak for South Florida.....Outback is always packed and always has a wait on the weekends down here. If you do to call ahead on the weekends....you will wait 30-45 minutes for a table. Bonefish is also quite busy. Carraba’s depends on location. But we love their food. They are a good italian grill. Chicken and steaks are always very tasty, pasta is always good, salads as well. It is good food.

I think the brand is strong and the brand loyalty by their patrons is even stronger. 

I would not sweat BLMN at all. The stock will be fine. Just sit tight. If you want to average down today....not a problem with that at all. I think it will pop again in the near future. 
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Outback has always been my guilty pleasure of restaurants.  The one chain restaurant I will frequent fairly regularly.  I've lived in 3 states and the place is always packed.  There is always a wait, even here in Utah where restaurants hardly ever have a wait.

 
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