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Stock Thread (54 Viewers)

Buckna said:
Glad to see someone still uses and like them, I should have qualified my comments as I hadn't used them in like a decade so things may be very different.

As I said, I used to like them but the sell, sell, sell aspect turned me off. Their message boards used to be a small step-up from yahoo but its been years since I've used those either. The survivorship bias still creeps in, they built their business during the dotcom boom by differentiating and publicly displaying their returns and picks but after the bubble burst when things started to lag or underperform they discontinued publishing the public data for obvious reasons. They also shuttered some of their different online newsletters and funds when they lagged just like other subscription investing services when they didn't do well. This was really bad during the market downturn in 2008~2010 which is one reason I stopped using them.
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Definitely understand and the constant ads/emails are a pain but I got what I needed which was stock advice for areas I’m big on. I mean you really don’t hear much about companies that aren’t consumer facing or the large caps.

 
Steeler said:
So you recommend the Motley Fool?  For $99 per year it's not a crazy amount of money to give it a try.
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I like it and I was starting from scratch and had a decent chunk in a rollover/cash so I wanted to do something outside of 401ks. Their Stock Advisor/Rule Breakers services are cheaper and give you new sets of stocks every month or more. Their boards do have more stocks mentioned as well and it’s definitely better quality than regular boards. If you like those and have some chunks of money they’ve got some yearly services that give you 20-30 stocks as well. It’s worked for me and I’m up on the market 50-60% in 2020 so far. Might not keep doing that but I just want to keep beating the market. 

 
wazoo11 said:
I got a free stock of nike on robinhood. Is that good? Totally new to stocks. 

What do you recommend reading? 
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The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing

John Bogle was the founder of Vanguard and a proponent of Index Funds.  Unless you know what you are doing, buying individual stocks isn't much different than gambling (most of the guys in here have an idea what they are doing).

Here's a decent video on Index Fund investing:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwe-PjrX23o

 
guru_007 said:
I like Motley Fools podcast and they are a pretty good outfit. I don't subscribe to anything but would pay for Morningstar and Motley Fool.

FWIW, you can usually get their crazy picks with a creative google search.  I believe last year it was ANET
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In 2018 they recommended TTD. 

SFBayDuck said:
Almost pulled the trigger on Tuesday on a stock I've been watching for a few months, TTD.  But I didn't.  Whoops.
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A perfect example of waiting for the pullback that never comes, and watching a stock you like just run away from you.  It started 2019 at $111, worked its way up to $150 on 2/21, jumped to $175 the day I posted this, and was at $195 two days later.  Of course it blew through $400 a couple of weeks ago.

 
SFBayDuck said:
In 2018 they recommended TTD. 

A perfect example of waiting for the pullback that never comes, and watching a stock you like just run away from you.  It started 2019 at $111, worked its way up to $150 on 2/21, jumped to $175 the day I posted this, and was at $195 two days later.  Of course it blew through $400 a couple of weeks ago.
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I bought TTD at $176. Sold some at $234 in April or May SMH, but I did buy other things like LVGO so not too bad and TTD is still one of my largest holdings. It’s also now a long term hold so only 15% taxes.

As an aside I don’t know if I could day trade as much as people in here so knowing that every gain gets whacked as income tax. My wife and I work so any short term gains are hit hard as it would be all at the maximum tax bracket.

 
Capella said:
I thought motley fool was some scam website. They’re legit? 
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Yeah, they are. Since you likely research stocks a lot, you are likely getting targeted ads. I get tons from lots of pay services. I’ve known about them for a while. Hadn’t used them since my wife didn’t work for over a decade when my oldest was about to be born so unfortunately we were a bit poorer for a while until we both were working otherwise I’d have made even more on Amazon and a ton on Netflix and Apple. I’m a big tech guy so the stocks they’ve been great on would have been right in my wheelhouse.

 
guru_007 said:
I like Motley Fools podcast and they are a pretty good outfit. I don't subscribe to anything but would pay for Morningstar and Motley Fool.

FWIW, you can usually get their crazy picks with a creative google search.  I believe last year it was ANET
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FWIW, I love Morningstar. Highly recommended for investors. Not sure about short term traders or technical analysis, but they have great advice and fundamental analysis. 

 
rascal said:
Explain it to me like i know nothing.  Which is pretty accurate.
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VGLT is made up of long dated Treasury bonds, at least 10 years in maturity.  I think the duration is close to 15.  The 30 year Treasury rate is at an all time low of 1.23%.  If that rises to 2.23% you would lose 15% on VGLT.  If it rose to 3.23% you would lose 30%.

I don't think rates will rise quickly but a move back to 1.8% is not out of the question.  If that happens your safe investment turns into an 8% loss pretty quickly.  I would consider complimenting VTI with a VGLT and also VCSH ( short term corporate bond ETF yielding 2.70%)

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Heck, going 50/50 with VTI and VGLT almost sounds like an exciting two fund approach. 
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Hey, that would be up 13% YTD!  I have said before a 50/50 portfolio with VTI and BND (Vanguard Total Stock Market) is pretty solid and simple.  This way your bonds are diversified and not all long term.

 
Don't Noonan said:
VGLT is made up of long dated Treasury bonds, at least 10 years in maturity.  I think the duration is close to 15.  The 30 year Treasury rate is at an all time low of 1.23%.  If that rises to 2.23% you would lose 15% on VGLT.  If it rose to 3.23% you would lose 30%.

I don't think rates will rise quickly but a move back to 1.8% is not out of the question.  If that happens your safe investment turns into an 8% loss pretty quickly.  I would consider complimenting VTI with a VGLT and also VCSH ( short term corporate bond ETF yielding 2.70%)
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You think rates will go back up anytime soon?  I can't see it happening with these unemployment numbers.

 
rascal said:
You think rates will go back up anytime soon?  I can't see it happening with these unemployment numbers.
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I don't foresee the rising too much in the short term no but I could see a scenario of them rising enough to lose money in long term bonds for sure.  You are earning almost no interest to own long dated bonds and taking on a lot of risk.  If rates continue to go down you will do well.  I use long term bonds as a hedge on my equities.

 
Walking Boot said:
They have multiple podcasts that are free and actually pretty informative. They got me on Docusign at like $75.
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Yeah, I’d honestly say that not investing in a few stocks they mentioned is my only regret investing this past year. TDOC at $65, TSLA at $350, DOCU at $68 and KNSL at $80 (based on where I saw them after being recommended) are my main misses. SHOP at $120 and buying more than I did at $300 probably should be in there as well. Still not unhappy as you can’t buy everything and there are probably some bad ones I didn’t buy as well.

 
Don't Noonan said:
I don't foresee the rising too much in the short term no but I could see a scenario of them rising enough to lose money in long term bonds for sure.  You are earning almost no interest to own long dated bonds and taking on a lot of risk.  If rates continue to go down you will do well.  I use long term bonds as a hedge on my equities.
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Yeah, to be in VGLT is a hedge on your stocks, more than BND or normal bond funds. 

Speaking of bonds, does anyone else keep their cash in BSV instead of just in the sweep account?

 
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My pick in the stock market thread, MENEF comes roaring back on the gold rally. While we're all playing for second to CYDY, nice to be positive on this one.

 
Walking Boot said:
Yep, they called out ETSY being oversold when it dropped from 60 to about 40 last year on the Motley Fool Money podcast. Said once Christmas sales got reported it should be no problem coming back to the previous levels, that the drop was a huge overreaction to a blip in earnings. So I got in at 45 and rode it up back up to 60 and sold on a limit order when it hit my target. Felt like a genius when it dropped back down to like 30 immediately after, just when the coronavirus hit. But then... Etsy announced "hey, we sell face masks," and on their next earnings call actually had to split out face masks from the rest of their sales as they were moving so many it became it's own category of sales, becoming the thing they sell the most on the site. Now it's over $100 and I just settled for a quick 40% when I could have more than doubled  :lmao:
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I bought some ETSY at $42, still have it. I bought it at the same time as DXCM at $200 and SHOP at $325 all in that March bottom. Just wish I had bought a full share of each instead of splitting a full share among the 3. Two more than doubles and one triple but I only put in a couple k a piece. Man, I wish I just dove in because the prices in March were so good. Just got worried about a deeper drop. Definitely learned a lesson about not worrying about another 10-15% drop if you think in a few years the stock will be up way more.

 
What do you guys think about the all weather portfolio and golden butterfly type portfolios? Golden butterfly is 20% large cap growth, 20% small cap value, 20% gold, 20% long term bonds, 20% short-intermediate term bonds. I think I'd adjust it to something like 20% large growth, 20% small value, 10% utlilities, 10% gold, 20% long bonds and 20% short-intermediate bonds, maybe corporate. Running the numbers that mix has performed about on par with the SP500 over the last 20 years with a much lower max drawdown.

 
fruity pebbles said:
What do you guys think about the all weather portfolio and golden butterfly type portfolios? Golden butterfly is 20% large cap growth, 20% small cap value, 20% gold, 20% long term bonds, 20% short-intermediate term bonds. I think I'd adjust it to something like 20% large growth, 20% small value, 10% utlilities, 10% gold, 20% long bonds and 20% short-intermediate bonds, maybe corporate. Running the numbers that mix has performed about on par with the SP500 over the last 20 years with a much lower max drawdown.
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I've been trying to put together something like that for my wife's 401k it's conversion.

Because I think the stock market overall is in imminent danger of another significant drop, I selected a few stocks that I think will outperform the market (or not lose as bad).  Despite the China fears and issues, I put 20% into BABA, 5% DELL and 2.5% UGBLY.

5% SLV, 10% CEF

7.5% GSG

42.5 EDV

7.5% IEI

I know little nothing about commodities/bonds and they dominate, as recommended.

Reading some of @GoBirds recent posts on bonds, I am a bit less comfortable with their percentages, but EDV has done really well the first two days.

My thoughts on this account is we should be able to let it sit five years and accumulate 50%.

I will be tweaking it a bit, but I want to set it and forget it. I have good cash reserve and ROTHs and safety deposit box previous metals of about equal value.

Thoughts/feedback appreciated

 
cosjobs said:
I've been trying to put together something like that for my wife's 401k it's conversion.

Because I think the stock market overall is in imminent danger of another significant drop, I selected a few stocks that I think will outperform the market (or not lose as bad).  Despite the China fears and issues, I put 20% into BABA, 5% DELL and 2.5% UGBLY.

5% SLV, 10% CEF

7.5% GSG

42.5 EDV

7.5% IEI

I know little nothing about commodities/bonds and they dominate, as recommended.

Reading some of @GoBirds recent posts on bonds, I am a bit less comfortable with their percentages, but EDV has done really well the first two days.

My thoughts on this account is we should be able to let it sit five years and accumulate 50%.

I will be tweaking it a bit, but I want to set it and forget it. I have good cash reserve and ROTHs and safety deposit box previous metals of about equal value.

Thoughts/feedback appreciated
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I hate this market so ive been playing around with different percentages of all weather type portfolios. I cant handle a 30%+ drop at this stage so im looking for something that still delivers good returns, doesn't have a max drawdown of more than 15-20%, and is set it a forget it. Id still have my play money account but this would be my 403B where most of my money is.

 
fruity pebbles said:
I hate this market so ive been playing around with different percentages of all weather type portfolios. I cant handle a 30%+ drop at this stage so im looking for something that still delivers good returns, doesn't have a max drawdown of more than 15-20%, and is set it a forget it. Id still have my play money account but this would be my 403B where most of my money is.
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So we see this similarly. As of yesterday, I chose those three stocks and like you, I used ROTHs and can accounts for more stocks, over represented by CYDY 

 
fruity pebbles said:
What do you guys think about the all weather portfolio and golden butterfly type portfolios? Golden butterfly is 20% large cap growth, 20% small cap value, 20% gold, 20% long term bonds, 20% short-intermediate term bonds. I think I'd adjust it to something like 20% large growth, 20% small value, 10% utlilities, 10% gold, 20% long bonds and 20% short-intermediate bonds, maybe corporate. Running the numbers that mix has performed about on par with the SP500 over the last 20 years with a much lower max drawdown.
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What are you using to run your numbers?

I’m currently in TMF/UPRO/TQQQ mix at 40/30/30. May play with the numbers a bit more as I am nervous on how lopsided the NASDAQ 100 has gotten. 

 
Nugget said:
What are you using to run your numbers?

I’m currently in TMF/UPRO/TQQQ mix at 40/30/30. May play with the numbers a bit more as I am nervous on how lopsided the NASDAQ 100 has gotten. 
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I had some numbers already for Harbor Capital Appreciation and Sycamore Small Company Opportunity so I used those two for the large growth and small value parts of the equation. I used Vanguard long term treasury fund, Vanguard intermediate term treasury, Vanguard utilities index fund and the IAU for gold for the rest. Past 20 years the worst year was 2008 in which it would have lost 9.4% but the SP500 was down 37%. Flip side in 2013 the SP500 was up 32% whereas this would have only been up 9.3%. In totality though since 2000, which was a bad start for stocks, average annual return was 8.5% a year for this vs around 8% for the SP500. Still playing around with things.

 
fruity pebbles said:
I had some numbers already for Harbor Capital Appreciation and Sycamore Small Company Opportunity so I used those two for the large growth and small value parts of the equation. I used Vanguard long term treasury fund, Vanguard intermediate term treasury, Vanguard utilities index fund and the IAU for gold for the rest. Past 20 years the worst year was 2008 in which it would have lost 9.4% but the SP500 was down 37%. Flip side in 2013 the SP500 was up 32% whereas this would have only been up 9.3%. In totality though since 2000, which was a bad start for stocks, average annual return was 8.5% a year for this vs around 8% for the SP500. Still playing around with things.
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Why not do a target retirement?

 
Looks like another red day. Have a few stocks I’m interested in that I’d buy on a bit more of a dip. Not planning to sell anything else yet, especially in my taxable account where much of my gains become long term taxes in October and December. 20-25% tax difference so no panic sell there. I also don’t think that tech stocks are close to the dot com stuff. I lived through that and knew a lot of garbage companies with little to no revenue. Not the same as the stocks I’m in now with solid revenue and solid growth. Definitely frothy like Tesla, which I think is ridiculously frothy.

Sold some long term Amazon at 3k before it popped even higher and came back down so cash reserves are solid as well to ride it out and make some more buys if there is a dip.

 
Meant to post yesterday, BLMN up 2% in a lot of after hours volume. Somebody must have known something as it Beat earnings estimates this morning

 
For the amateur chartists, double top on AMZN? TSLA down 8% at the open. Maybe the “the chickens coming home to roost” is finally happening

 
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