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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)

Whatever caused the drop at the end, gave me enough of a TZA rally to get out in the green and back to normal stress levels.   Took some buy downs yesterday and this morning to do it though.   

 
I mean at one person on twitter said, we have one down day and everyone asks what happened? We’re in a euphoric mood that a spike isn’t questioned but a sell-off is. 
 

That said, I’m sure the Biden VP leaked and likely caused a bit of it. Kamala is both competent and not a fan of Wall Street. Better than Warren but Biden’s odds are likely higher which is bad for markets. 

 
Man In The Box said:
Not sure if you’re being sarcastic, but this is my thought. This is a bad sign for the fall, school especially. 
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Was said tongue in cheek for sure, because I hate the big 10 - but there is such a massive disconnect between the market and the economy right now, it is going to get the legs cut out from them from time to time.  Schools being out is not going to help as a lot of people do rely on the school system for a day care.  But I also think the stall on the stimulus is going to be a drag because that is certainly priced in there already.  Need them to agree on an extension of benefits or a plan to help drive money to consumers.  The executive order that was put into play was pretty pathetic as it was only putting a very small band-aid when a tourniquet is needed.  Was a pure political move to say "hey we tried something, but the other party isn't coming to the table".   yada yada yada.  Something will get worked out for sure

 
Capella said:
What caused the market sell off? People actually stopped to think about how stupid it was to trust a Russian vaccine?
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CR69 said:
TDA said it was because McConnell said stimulus talks have stalled
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guru_007 said:
I'm blaming the Big10 for not playing football
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sporthenry said:
I mean at one person on twitter said, we have one down day and everyone asks what happened? We’re in a euphoric mood that a spike isn’t questioned but a sell-off is. 
 

That said, I’m sure the Biden VP leaked and likely caused a bit of it. Kamala is both competent and not a fan of Wall Street. Better than Warren but Biden’s odds are likely higher which is bad for markets. 
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I was all ready to blame Harris.

But I do like the choice.

 
Might be seeing the start of a trend back into these splits now that companies have seen how the market reacts to them. 

 
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Seeing some nice premiums on ITCI puts for September.  They just announced earnings and the report was not great so the share price dropped to $19 yesterday. There’s no news expected between now and September 21, so one would think that the options wouldn’t be rich. Not expecting a huge move in stock price either way. You can sell a put spread $17/$14 for a net credit of $100 or about one third of the cash needed to secure the spread.

For those of you unfamiliar with this trade, you sell the put at $17 strike and you buy the put at $14 so maximum liability is the difference between those two strike prices or $300 per contract. A ROI of 33% on a put spread that is out of the money by 10% is very lucrative. I sold four just before the close today (netted $400, risking $1200). Seeing an AH rise on the stock price which means I may sell an out of the money call spread tomorrow, turning this into an Iron Condor. Won’t need any more than that same $1200 cash to secure it, so that’s nice but the calls aren’t as rich, maybe by half. Invest at your own risk. But I like this one a lot and thought I’d share for you options traders out there. 

 
So how rare isn't for a stock to actually go UP on the ex dividend date, especially when the annual yield is like 8%?

Asking for a friend

 
pecorino said:
Seeing some nice premiums on ITCI puts for September.  They just announced earnings and the report was not great so the share price dropped to $19 yesterday. There’s no news expected between now and September 21, so one would think that the options wouldn’t be rich. Not expecting a huge move in stock price either way. You can sell a put spread $17/$14 for a net credit of $100 or about one third of the cash needed to secure the spread.

For those of you unfamiliar with this trade, you sell the put at $17 strike and you buy the put at $14 so maximum liability is the difference between those two strike prices or $300 per contract. A ROI of 33% on a put spread that is out of the money by 10% is very lucrative. I sold four just before the close today (netted $400, risking $1200). Seeing an AH rise on the stock price which means I may sell an out of the money call spread tomorrow, turning this into an Iron Condor. Won’t need any more than that same $1200 cash to secure it, so that’s nice but the calls aren’t as rich, maybe by half. Invest at your own risk. But I like this one a lot and thought I’d share for you options traders out there. 
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Not sure I can gather up the NERV to sell more puts on a stock I don't actually want to own.

 
sporthenry said:
I mean at one person on twitter said, we have one down day and everyone asks what happened? We’re in a euphoric mood that a spike isn’t questioned but a sell-off is. 
 

That said, I’m sure the Biden VP leaked and likely caused a bit of it. Kamala is both competent and not a fan of Wall Street. Better than Warren but Biden’s odds are likely higher which is bad for markets. 
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I'll take the down markets. ;)

I know, I know, take it to the Political Forum. 

 
⚡DEADHEAD⚡ said:
Bought PPL at $24.15 thanks to the good peeps here. What sort of movement up are we looking for on EXC? And do I have to buy today to get the dividend? When does it pay out? Sorry for all the questions.
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My 12 month price target is high 50’s. I could see it going to $56-$58 within a year. Yep...almost a or close to a 50% move. The stock is heavily undervalued here IMO. They have a traditional utility business which is valued at where it is trading today. But they also have a Nuclear business which has a book value of $14-$18 a share based on 1.6B in free cash flow. It is totally being ignored in the price action of this stock. 

I do not want to bore you......just know the stock is inexpensive here, pays a reliable strong 4% dividend and has room to grow in the price of it’s shares here. 

Next year after PPL closes it’s deal on selling it’s UK assets/business and undoubtedly cuts it’s dividend (it is unsustainable without the UK arm), I will look to re-enter after a sell off and own it as a traditional utility, with a nice 3.5-4% yield. They will be a leaner and meaner company. However when you can take 20% plus gains on a utility in a month or so.....and know a dividend cut will be forthcoming before it hits the street.....you sell, re-evaluate and look for another opportunity. I have owned PPL since the high teens for the record and added more when I posted about it here. We are completely out of the stock now.

In terms of this market. I am cautiously optimistic. I fully expect another step back of some sort before year end. Valuations in certain sectors are getting frothy and ahead of themselves. The election will cause some swings too. If Biden/Harris pull it off, undoubtedly we will see a knee jerk reaction pull back and that will be a great chance to buy more high quality master list stocks. 

Current allocation in my all equity sleeve as of yesterday:

85% Stocks 15% cash. 

We may build a little more cash again as well taking profits from March buys. 

YTD Return in my personal trading account sits at 32%

YTD Return in all equity master list portfolio sits at just shy of 9%

YTD Return in Growth and Income sits at 6% (60% equity 20% fixed income 15% cash 5% Equity Alternatives)

I have zero complaints and hope we can finish the year where we are today. I will take that all day...every day. 

 
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Todem said:
My 12 month price target is high 50’s. I could see it going to $56-$58 within a year. Yep...almost a or close to a 50% move. The stock is heavily undervalued here IMO. They have a traditional utility business which is valued at where it is trading today. But they also have a Nuclear business which has a book value of $14-$18 a share based on 1.6B in free cash flow. It is totally being ignored in the price action of this stock. 

I do not want to bore you......just know the stock is inexpensive here, pays a reliable strong 4% dividend and has room to grow in the price of it’s shares here. 

Next year after PPL closes it’s deal on selling it’s UK assets/business and undoubtedly cuts it’s dividend (it is unsustainable without the UK arm), I will look to re-enter after a sell off and own it as a traditional utility, with a nice 3.5-4% yield. They will be a leaner and meaner company. However when you can take 20% plus gains on a utility in a month or so.....and know a dividend cut will be forthcoming before it hits the street.....you sell, re-evaluate and look for another opportunity. I have owned PPL since the high teens for the record and added more when I posted about it here. We are completely out of the stock now.

In terms of this market. I am cautiously optimistic. I fully expect another step back of some sort before year end. Valuations in certain sectors are getting frothy and ahead of themselves. The election will cause some swings too. If Biden/Harris pull it off, undoubtedly we will see a knee jerk reaction pull back and that will be a great chance to buy more high quality master list stocks. 

Current allocation in my all equity sleeve as of yesterday:

85% Stocks 15% cash. 

We may build a little more cash again as well taking profits from March buys. 

YTD Return in my personal trading account sits at 32%

YTD Return in all equity master list portfolio sits at just shy of 9%

YTD Return in Growth and Income sits at 6% (60% equity 20% fixed income 15% cash 5% Equity Alternatives)

I have zero complaints and hope we can finish the year where we are today. I will take that all day...every day. 
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Thanks. I need some non tech investments outside of my 401ks which are more index funds already.

 
Anyone have a strategy they use for # of individual holdings and % you put into each depending on if it’s a long term hold or short term trade?  The problem I am running into is I find I’m too spread out with maybe 1-2% of my non-index fund money in each stock.  Then, if I get a price movement of 10-20% up it’s barely worth it to get out whereas if I had more like 5-10% in then I would.  

It may be a bit rhetorical and really a question or risk/reward.  I see folks throwing around that they made $xx,xxx trading one stock and I’m scratching my head thinking either they have millions in their account or they’re putting a lot higher % of their money into any stock picks they have.  So generally wondering what the rest of you do.

 
Lacey said:
Anyone have a strategy they use for # of individual holdings and % you put into each depending on if it’s a long term hold or short term trade?  The problem I am running into is I find I’m too spread out with maybe 1-2% of my non-index fund money in each stock.  Then, if I get a price movement of 10-20% up it’s barely worth it to get out whereas if I had more like 5-10% in then I would.  

It may be a bit rhetorical and really a question or risk/reward.  I see folks throwing around that they made $xx,xxx trading one stock and I’m scratching my head thinking either they have millions in their account or they’re putting a lot higher % of their money into any stock picks they have.  So generally wondering what the rest of you do.
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Generally what I do is a) put people on ignore that have to document every trade, b) don't give af what anyone posting states they made on any one stock and c) don't believe 1/10th of what is posted online.

I try not to put 5% into initial purchase on any individual stock.  If it grows to be 10-15% of my portfolio, so be it.

If I'm trading, I have a set amount of money to trade - probably about 2% tops.  But tbh, I very very very very rarely trade.  If I'm buying a stock it's an investment.  If I'm betting on a  stock I'm using options.

 
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Any of you buying more of this RLFTF at 40 cents?

Edit....50 dollar fee on Fidelity.  F that noise

 
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ghostguy123 said:
Any of you buying more of this RLFTF at 40 cents?

Edit....50 dollar fee on Fidelity.  F that noise
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I'm standing pat. I'm still up 67% on my original dough, but at this point I have too many speculative stocks sitting there.  I'll probably start selling some things off and get into some more stable stuff. 

While these biotech stocks feed my gambling jones, I need to squash that pretty quick if I want to have long term success in this account. Right now it's my learner account, and I'm in the positive so far since I started, but I don't want to be an idiot.

 
JoeSteeler said:
someone here called Fidelity and they waived the fee
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Schwab gave a one time credit of $100.  They also flagged my account with a "he knows it is $50" so they are not going to waive/credit it again.  Fidelity may be different, but I doubt they waive it more than once.

 
guru_007 said:
Generally what I do is a) put people on ignore that have to document every trade, b) don't give af what anyone posting states they made on any one stock and c) don't believe 1/10th of what is posted online.

I try not to put 5% into initial purchase on any individual stock.  If it grows to be 10-15% of my portfolio, so be it.

If I'm trading, I have a set amount of money to trade - probably about 2% tops.  But tbh, I very very very very rarely trade.  If I'm buying a stock it's an investment.  If I'm betting on a  stock I'm using options.
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Yep.

My largest single stock (SE) is maybe 3% of my total investments.

 
Lacey said:
Anyone have a strategy they use for # of individual holdings and % you put into each depending on if it’s a long term hold or short term trade?  The problem I am running into is I find I’m too spread out with maybe 1-2% of my non-index fund money in each stock.  Then, if I get a price movement of 10-20% up it’s barely worth it to get out whereas if I had more like 5-10% in then I would.  

It may be a bit rhetorical and really a question or risk/reward.  I see folks throwing around that they made $xx,xxx trading one stock and I’m scratching my head thinking either they have millions in their account or they’re putting a lot higher % of their money into any stock picks they have.  So generally wondering what the rest of you do.
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Personally, I don't see this as a problem at all.  I feel like I can beat the market by picking individual stocks, so index funds are a no go for me.  For anyone who doesn't feel like they can beat the market, then they should stay in index funds.  Most of my "trades" are in the 0.25-2.0% range.  I'll have maybe 20 of these running at one time.  I won't hit a home run when any stock goes up 20%, but any stock dropping isn't an issue.  All the small gains eventually end up as a large gain without taking the risk.  I often start at 0.25% so I have run to dollar cost down.  If the stock takes off like SE, I can continue to add on the momentum.  Sure that costs me a few bucks on SE, but it put me in a great position to recoup that and then some as Blmn blew through $11 down to the $9s and then traded in that upper $9 to $11 range for quite a while.

There are people here with a lot of coin.  $gains mean nothing, it's about the percentage.  Also many have other accounts where they have index funds and are solely speaking about gains in their trading account.

 
guru_007 said:
Generally what I do is a) put people on ignore that have to document every trade, b) don't give af what anyone posting states they made on any one stock and c) don't believe 1/10th of what is posted online.

I try not to put 5% into initial purchase on any individual stock.  If it grows to be 10-15% of my portfolio, so be it.

If I'm trading, I have a set amount of money to trade - probably about 2% tops.  But tbh, I very very very very rarely trade.  If I'm buying a stock it's an investment.  If I'm betting on a  stock I'm using options.
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I like it when people post their trades.  I've hopped into Bloomin several times when posters noted a sudden drop and also exited stocks when someone noted a big gain on no news.  I want to return the favor when I see an opportunity.  Also I know many of the people posting here in this thread, I would tend to believe 9/10s of what I see posted.

 
Lacey said:
Anyone have a strategy they use for # of individual holdings and % you put into each depending on if it’s a long term hold or short term trade?  The problem I am running into is I find I’m too spread out with maybe 1-2% of my non-index fund money in each stock.  Then, if I get a price movement of 10-20% up it’s barely worth it to get out whereas if I had more like 5-10% in then I would.  

It may be a bit rhetorical and really a question or risk/reward.  I see folks throwing around that they made $xx,xxx trading one stock and I’m scratching my head thinking either they have millions in their account or they’re putting a lot higher % of their money into any stock picks they have.  So generally wondering what the rest of you do.
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I have struggled with this a bit myself. With my trading account I try not to start a position unless I am going to put at least $5K in. Generally, I'm shooting for home runs here - only thing worse than being wrong is being right but without enough $ in something for it to actually matter. My 'trading' accounts were like 10% of total, the stock that shall not be named has boosted that a decent amount so been fun to try to establish a few more positions. 

I am different from our friend @BassNBrew and generally don't think I can beat the market unless I take shots at high risk high reward plays that might be overlooked for a multitude of reasons (small market cap etc. etc.). So, try to get conviction on a small handful of stocks and let em ride. 

 
BassNBrew said:
I like it when people post their trades.  I've hopped into Bloomin several times when posters noted a sudden drop and also exited stocks when someone noted a big gain on no news.  I want to return the favor when I see an opportunity.  Also I know many of the people posting here in this thread, I would tend to believe 9/10s of what I see posted.
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Not even trades. Just what people are seeing, considering, thinking, reading, etc. It's impossible to know about or track everything that's out there. Even big names get lost in all the info. The more eyes and ears the better.

 
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