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Stock Thread (44 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
FUBAR
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
When a bottom forms which means you won't be buying at the absolute bottom but no way I'm buying into this relentless selling. What really sucks is that some of the winners for 2015 got pummeled today. Not sure if that's to cover margin calls or what.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Gotta do the not so humble brag
I can't speak to anything besides oil right now, bc that is all I've basically followed for the last few weeks. What I can say for oil is that it had a break of $40, which quickly shot up almost 2% afterwards. It looks like $40 will be critical supports...
I've asked a bunch of times, and can't find a reasonable answer as to what changes the trend.
Against oil -----> MASSIVE production far exceeding demand, more production could be coming online SOON from Iran (increasing OPEC's output by anywhere from 5-10% BPD almost immediately), China potential collapse, rising dollar, lower production costs/more efficient production from USA producers, refineries going into maintenance season starting in 2 weeks.
For oil ------> IDK????? $40 looked like good support. Anyone?
The price action and the jump off of the LOD made me sell, if it had stayed under $40 I'd still be holding. Watching for some action on Monday, but decided to take a nice 3 day gain off the table... If it holds under $40 then, I think I get back in. It feels like the Saudis are closer with their goals, but until bankruptcies are filed and a lot of other producers go under, I think they keep the production levels running at the same levels for as long as possible.
I can't speak to anything besides oil right now, bc that is all I've basically followed for the last few weeks. What I can say for oil is that it had a break of $40, which quickly shot up almost 2% afterwards. It looks like $40 will be critical supports...
I've asked a bunch of times, and can't find a reasonable answer as to what changes the trend.
Against oil -----> MASSIVE production far exceeding demand, more production could be coming online SOON from Iran (increasing OPEC's output by anywhere from 5-10% BPD almost immediately), China potential collapse, rising dollar, lower production costs/more efficient production from USA producers, refineries going into maintenance season starting in 2 weeks.
For oil ------> IDK????? $40 looked like good support. Anyone?
The price action and the jump off of the LOD made me sell, if it had stayed under $40 I'd still be holding. Watching for some action on Monday, but decided to take a nice 3 day gain off the table... If it holds under $40 then, I think I get back in. It feels like the Saudis are closer with their goals, but until bankruptcies are filed and a lot of other producers go under, I think they keep the production levels running at the same levels for as long as possible.
NREC34
Footballguy
I put most of my 401k into money market fund a few months back. Probably have at least 15 years until I can retire. A few days ago I got an form letter email saying my retirement looked like it was too conservative for my age and maybe I should call some number and talk to an advisor. Guess maybe they were wrong, huh? Unsubscribesnogger said:Half- empty... For those retiring soon
Half-Full
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
May also be some either locking in profits while they are still there and/or raising cash to redeploy into areas that have further corrected.St. Louis Bob said:
On oil, Dennis Gartman just said contango has narrowed and he thinks the low is in.
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
2 days ago he was calling for panic and M&A. He flips his POV quickly.
He also called for $15 oil during the March lows which shot up to low $60's.
This almost makes me more bearish.
He also called for $15 oil during the March lows which shot up to low $60's.
This almost makes me more bearish.
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Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
lod01
Footballguy
Mine is all in a money market. Soon it will be back in Valic Health Sciences and Valic Small Cap Aggressive and I retire in 11 years. You should be glad they sent you that letter if you were planning on missing this run coming up.I put most of my 401k into money market fund a few months back. Probably have at least 15 years until I can retire. A few days ago I got an form letter email saying my retirement looked like it was too conservative for my age and maybe I should call some number and talk to an advisor. Guess maybe they were wrong, huh? Unsubscribesnogger said:Half- empty
Half-Full
Those retiring soon should watch the markets closely and pour in aggressively when things turn around. Of course the big guess is the 'when'. Even in the 2 disasters during the early 2000s, if you poured in 1/2 way down you made out better than if you had stuffed in your sock....or a $ market.snogger said:Half- empty
Half-Full
Sand
Footballguy
Good news: Currently almost 20% cash and another 15% US treasuries And distinctly overweight real estate, which has held up well.
Bad news: Almost everything else, including 10% of my port in CVX. But at least CVX will keep churning out the dividends and I'll just stash it away until it comes back. 10 years if need be.
Definitely going to be doing some tax loss selling, as my overseas bonds and equity are down big.
Looking at doubling up on KMI, EPD, MMP, etc. Midstreams have been hit way too hard. Still looking at taking a flier on some FCX. Crazy what's happened there. Maybe some GDX. Otherwise stay the course.
Bad news: Almost everything else, including 10% of my port in CVX. But at least CVX will keep churning out the dividends and I'll just stash it away until it comes back. 10 years if need be.
Definitely going to be doing some tax loss selling, as my overseas bonds and equity are down big.
Looking at doubling up on KMI, EPD, MMP, etc. Midstreams have been hit way too hard. Still looking at taking a flier on some FCX. Crazy what's happened there. Maybe some GDX. Otherwise stay the course.
Wooderson
Fight The Power
You don't change a thing in your 401k if your 30 years from retirment right? I'm in it for the long haul and short term loss for me now is not that big of deal right?
Would it matter if some 401k's are ones you are not able to contriubute more money to?
Feeling a little antsie
Would it matter if some 401k's are ones you are not able to contriubute more money to?
Feeling a little antsie
GoBirds
Footballguy
That's my thinking in my 30's. Consider it a better buying opportunity than where we were a couple weeks ago.You don't change a thing in your 401k if your 30 years from retirment right? I'm in it for the long haul and short term loss for me now is not that big of deal right?
Would it matter if some 401k's are ones you are not able to contriubute more money to?
Feeling a little antsie
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Set it and forget it... 30 years? Similar boat here - in the next 20 or so years while it is still being invested in riskier assets, good chance it takes a halving at some point, it'll then recover and keep growing. Anyways, lot of noise out there right now and some panic, but our economy isn't in danger of collapsing right now. Market has just been running like an animal for 6 years and it needs to make an adjustment.You don't change a thing in your 401k if your 30 years from retirment right? I'm in it for the long haul and short term loss for me now is not that big of deal right?
Would it matter if some 401k's are ones you are not able to contriubute more money to?
Feeling a little antsie
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FUBAR
Footballguy
that's my plan. Nobody should change much because of a bad day.That's my thinking in my 30's. Consider it a better buying opportunity than where we were a couple weeks ago.You don't change a thing in your 401k if your 30 years from retirment right? I'm in it for the long haul and short term loss for me now is not that big of deal right?
Would it matter if some 401k's are ones you are not able to contriubute more money to?
Feeling a little antsie
John Bender
Footballguy
Rohn Jambo
Footballguy
Things can get pretty ugly in China.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02a129cc-4995-11e5-9b5d-89a026fda5c9.html#axzz3jgkcyz26
I was on a flight which was a few hours late departing Beijing and there was almost a riot. All I could think of was "I'm not getting on that flight if the airline let the plane take off before repairs are done."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/02a129cc-4995-11e5-9b5d-89a026fda5c9.html#axzz3jgkcyz26
I was on a flight which was a few hours late departing Beijing and there was almost a riot. All I could think of was "I'm not getting on that flight if the airline let the plane take off before repairs are done."
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Got gunshy on DWTI last week at close... If it pushes convincingly through $40 at any point and holds below, say the $39.50 range, at that point I think I get back on the ride south.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
I'm looking at 2016 Roth contribution as I've made this years already. If I waited I, like others, would be much happier. But, as far as 2016 is concerned if the Dow goes down to whatever level, better to buy gambles or dividend stocks?Oil dividends look much nicer right now. Again, waiting till 2016 window to open.that's my plan. Nobody should change much because of a bad day.That's my thinking in my 30's. Consider it a better buying opportunity than where we were a couple weeks ago.You don't change a thing in your 401k if your 30 years from retirment right? I'm in it for the long haul and short term loss for me now is not that big of deal right?
Would it matter if some 401k's are ones you are not able to contriubute more money to?
Feeling a little antsie
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Futures getting clobbered right now, Asia getting slammed, and oil getting hit.
The General
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Wonder what the Fed does with rates after this monster nose dive. Should be interesting.
lod01
Footballguy
The damage is already done and an announcement of holding off raising rates would at best give a short term pop that will be met with more selling.
Booyah!!!! Futures down over 2%.
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Mario Kart
Footballguy
Who's the guy that was going to short everything about a month ago? Is he happy or sad now cause there was a bump that may have ended his shorting.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Please give me any FYIs you have. I'll never know what you do, so I appreciate whatever you offer.
I guess i got lucky Friday. I had made 9% on the week betting against the market and oil and added another 5.5% Friday. I plan on continuing those stances as long as they keep momentum.
The only positions I held over the weekend were DWTI and half stakes in EEV and RUSS, along with my UCO hedge against DWTI.
(when I sell off DWTI at a perceived high I pick up a few UCOs at their perceived low as a hedge.
20% of my funds are in DTWI at 193.50 and
10% in UCO at 20.08
4% in two stocks that I picked up Friday. They were both up significantly Friday in the face of a bear day, so I placed market orders for halfway between the open and the midday price. I ended up with MCUR at 4.03 and IIJI at 9.36.
The other 66% I will place in inverse ETF in a similar pattern to last week. I'll buy some pre-market, some at open, some at midday, some in the afternoon. Close most everything before close and look for some value after hours.
I put a 100k stake in this fund and it represents my "mad money" that I will try to run up as high as I somewhat safely can during the oil drop and market correction. When that fun ends, I hope to have a significant profit that I can add to the original stake and go bargain shopping. If it gets down to 90K, I quit and give it to my conservative guy at Smith Barney. I've been sitting on the sidelines for six months, thinking the market was overvalued and waiting to pounce. THe oil drop has been an added bonus. BUt my end game is to try and gain and extra 20-30% off the correction, the go buy a bunch of quality stocks at a discount and quit this daily ####.
However, I remember a guy saying the other day that both the morning and afternoon sessions were both down for only the 4th time in a year. If that's accurate (and a true predictor)) then I can see me buying some 3x bull etfs any time the morning is down, because the odds are strong in my favor to make money that afternoon. I'd like to find more market trend like that that I can speculate on historical performance at 3x odds.
I've just begun doing a little pre-market trading. I seem to come out ahead of the market open price about 2/3s of the time, but its a very small sample size.
Wow. Just saw futures for all US mkts down over 2% now on current trading... Its going to be expensive to get into the inverse etfs tomorrow.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Can't believe I sold DWTI on Friday 
gonna open around $212-$215...
Dow futures accelerating downward. Down about 350 points.
gonna open around $212-$215...Dow futures accelerating downward. Down about 350 points.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I sold Friday late, then reloaded afterhours.Can't believe I sold DWTI on Friday
Dow futures accelerating downward. Down about 350 points.
Have you been watching RUSS? I think it may be a better oil bear. Seems to have less downside and more upside...
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I haven't been... I'm just wondering how low WTI can go. The price action on Friday scared me out. It took a mean bounce and I didn't want to hold over the weekend. That decision is prob going to cost me a lot. I can't complain when making a big profit in 3 days, but still, #### me.Are we near the bottom? Does oil keep heading towards the mid-low $30's. If oil gets to $36, if I buy back in tomm, still a 30% profit on DWTI. Hoping it takes a bounce from the low $39's where it is now, but that doesn't appear probable. I just can't wait until the morning to see where it is.I sold Friday late, then reloaded afterhours.Can't believe I sold DWTI on Friday
Dow futures accelerating downward. Down about 350 points.
Have you been watching RUSS? I think it may be a better oil bear. Seems to have less downside and more upside...
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skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Says the guy who made 11k+ last week gambling.Can't believe I sold DWTI on Friday
Dow futures accelerating downward. Down about 350 points.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Would've made an extra $10k holding over the weekend. ####Says the guy who made 11k+ last week gambling.Can't believe I sold DWTI on Friday
Dow futures accelerating downward. Down about 350 points.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Meanwhile, the ####### DJIA Futures are now down over 400 points. This is chaos.
cosjobs
Footballguy
Pull up the chart. I've been following closely and doesn't take near the dip when oil fluctuates up, but takes all the profits and more when oil goes down. I made more money on that last week than I did on DWTI. Russia and the ruble are a mess so you get that along with the oil.I haven't been... I'm just wondering how low WTI can go. The price action on Friday scared me out. It took a mean bounce and I didn't want to hold over the weekend. That decision is prob going to cost me a lot. I can't complain when making a big profit in 3 days, but still, #### me.Are we near the bottom? Does oil keep heading towards the mid-low $30's. If oil gets to $36, if I buy back in tomm, still a 30% profit on DWTI. Hoping it takes a bounce from the low $39's where it is now, but that doesn't appear probable. I just can't wait until the morning to see where it is.I sold Friday late, then reloaded afterhours.Can't believe I sold DWTI on Friday
Dow futures accelerating downward. Down about 350 points.
Have you been watching RUSS? I think it may be a better oil bear. Seems to have less downside and more upside...
TripItUp
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I'm losing sleep over DWTI right now. Oil is no mans land right now. IDK if I just wake up and buy DWTI regardless of price. I don't think we're at a bottom... The only thing I can think of that stops the oil bloodbath (outside of an OPEC pumping reduction, which doesn't look likely) is congress putting down the Iran deal, and that doesn't look likely either, plus they aren't voting for another 3 or 4 weeks.
This just feels like a rare opportunity to hit a HR quickly.
I'll look at RUSS from work, know nothing about it.
This just feels like a rare opportunity to hit a HR quickly.
I'll look at RUSS from work, know nothing about it.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
cosjobs
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
Tomorrow's some big day for the month on oil. Talking heads said could surge up or down depending on the reports.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Which reports come out tomm? Do you have a link with some literature so I could stay awake a little longer?
GoBirds
Footballguy
Agree on the Fed......go ahead with a small increase and leave it there for awhile. Been talking about it too long.
TripItUp
Footballguy
yep, but got out a while ago...most on the sidelines, have some in facebook still which has taken a beating.
I'll be getting back in sometime next week.
