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Stock Thread (53 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Sweet J
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I just put it all on Black 4. :crossesfingers:
culdeus
Footballguy
wowThe ^VIX hit an 8 year high and almost certainly would have set a record except that it quit updating.
I've always loved me some vix
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
I tend to trust the ones who tell you when the time is right to sell.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Just bought FAS for $25.03 looking for a bounce tomorrow.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I've got a lot of dry on the sideline and I think I'm moving it into play... Anyone give thoughts on this breakdown:
DIA - 10%
SPY - 10%
Googl - 10%
Amzn - 8%
XLE - 8%
XOM - 8%
EDV - 10%
IEF - 10%
VZ - 8%
IBB - 7%
XLK -7%
Grub - 4% (I'm a believer in this company)
Do I need to go a little safer? Trying to mix some treasury and bond funds in along with ETFs and companies I'm a long time believer in.
Any feedback appreciated.
DIA - 10%
SPY - 10%
Googl - 10%
Amzn - 8%
XLE - 8%
XOM - 8%
EDV - 10%
IEF - 10%
VZ - 8%
IBB - 7%
XLK -7%
Grub - 4% (I'm a believer in this company)
Do I need to go a little safer? Trying to mix some treasury and bond funds in along with ETFs and companies I'm a long time believer in.
Any feedback appreciated.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Been killing it shorting oil the last few days, this guy is a clown - changes his position twice in 3 days, why does he get airtime? I think oil (and most of the market) gets a bounce tomorrow. I'm thinking about holding off on the oil short until the EIA report Wednesday. Hoping it gets fluffed up until then. Don't think a negative 1-2 million draw will do much and I think oil selling resumes Wednesday.
The Fed might have some pause about hiking, so oil could be getting a reprieve there, which gives me some cause for pause if the dollar weakens.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Anyone worried there is a lot more pain?
Personally I think our economy is in good shape - growing GDP, great employment numbers, great ISM numbers... Basically no boogie men hiding under the bed like 2007. China is a disaster, but we're much more well positioned to handle a rocky road right now. I think this pullback is healthy and a good spot to add to long term positions, hence my post above, which would be a set it and forget move.
Thoughts on the market and pain to come?
Personally I think our economy is in good shape - growing GDP, great employment numbers, great ISM numbers... Basically no boogie men hiding under the bed like 2007. China is a disaster, but we're much more well positioned to handle a rocky road right now. I think this pullback is healthy and a good spot to add to long term positions, hence my post above, which would be a set it and forget move.
Thoughts on the market and pain to come?
siffoin
Footballguy
And here I was hoping to spend the day studying up for my Fantasy draft tonight. Hopefully the bones heads in my league were distracted by the market action today too, and Jordy Nelson will be sitting there for me in round 2- I plays 'em like a true shark.siff, where are you? Get your ### in here and opine!
The truth is, I'm not sure what I have to offer you guys because it seems like everyone's been nicely re-conditioned to buy every drop in the market. That bear markets don't exist. And that in general (today notwithstanding) everything is awesome! Buy and Hold is the best investment philosophy to have when a bull market is at all-time highs, and not so great at a bear market bottom.
My philosophy has always been - be bullish in a bull market and be bearish in a bear market and have the courage to recognize which is which.
But when for 6 years running every bounce should be bought, and the idea of "risk" no longer exists. Well that philosophy seems a tad outdated. Perhaps I am too for sticking with it.
So with a grain of salt - Here's 10 things I think...
1) I think we're in an early Bear Market.
2) I think the Bear market began sometime in Mid-April - though the actual high took place a few weeks later. There's one chart I've posted before that has been very good at identifying every major market top and pegged this as well.
3) The Daily Chart is Bearish, The Weekly Chart is Bearish and if we close below $205 on the $SPY the monthly chart will be Bearish too.
4) The Top Sector rotation is actually in Cash as of end of July - granted it's lost 7:8 past months. But it is what it is.
5) Today's low mirrored the Oct Lows - and a bounce off that low was to be expected (I didn't think it would be s fast and furious, but still expected). - let's just call that level of support generally around $180 on the $SPY
6) Over the next days-weeks- assuming some kind of bounce- we want to pay close attention to how price reacts off levels of resistance.
7) IF over the next days/weeks/months the $SPY were to break below $180 - we're in trouble with a capital "T"- because I think that brings $SPY @ $140's into play.
8) Are there other levels of support between $140-$180 and would there be bounces along the way? YES.
9) Anyone invested even a little bit is getting hammered right now. I try to limit losses but on a day like today everyone loses.
10) In 2011 we had a pretty similar technical picture, and Aug was pretty ugly that year too. But The Fed came to the rescue then and it's more than possible (perhaps even probable) that they'll come to the rescue this time too.
However this market resolved - it's possible that the type of run and gains in place since early 2012 will be tempered in the future. And if this were a vicious and prolonged bear market it may take much more time to re-gain from losses than the losses from the last bear market.
It's impossible for me to predict the market. I can only say with conviction where I believe we are in the here and now. I post my trades in real-time every day - and if you've ever looked you will see that my accuracy on predicting market movement over just the next few minutes to hours is less than 60%--so take all that I've said above with that grain of salt. I don't bat anywhere close to 100%.
Time to update my Draft Dominator App before I head on out for a much needed drink.
Good Luck!
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
This is the big one and I think it's probable they speak up sooner than later that interest rates will remain as is until sometime in 2016.10) In 2011 we had a pretty similar technical picture, and Aug was pretty ugly that year too. But The Fed came to the rescue then and it's more than possible (perhaps even probable) that they'll come to the rescue this time too.siff, where are you? Get your ### in here and opine!
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'd agree with this if the tsp is your only or the vast majority of your retirement funds. My tsp is roughly half of our retirement, and I have 20% C fund, 40% I Fund. But my wife's account is 100% US stock and accounts for 40% of our retirement. The rest is my Roth which I've stopped adding to.
Bottom line, all retirement accounts souls be considered together imo.
I'm guessing he means something much bigger- can't imagine this would have much, if any, positive impact on the markets.This is the big one and I think it's probable they speak up sooner than later that interest rates will remain as is until sometime in 2016.10) In 2011 we had a pretty similar technical picture, and Aug was pretty ugly that year too. But The Fed came to the rescue then and it's more than possible (perhaps even probable) that they'll come to the rescue this time too.siff, where are you? Get your ### in here and opine!
John Bender
Footballguy
Had account funding issues today. Wanted to grab some of the big stuff (NEtflix, Apple) early when the huge dip came.
Have my bank account linked but it wouldn't process the transfer until COB today.
So I'm heavily funded right now and looking to see how the prospects are for tomorrow. Hoping someone here can keep an eye on China and advise how they feel the rest of the week will be?
Have my bank account linked but it wouldn't process the transfer until COB today.
So I'm heavily funded right now and looking to see how the prospects are for tomorrow. Hoping someone here can keep an eye on China and advise how they feel the rest of the week will be?
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
This and QE4. The can kicked down the road once more.This is the big one and I think it's probable they speak up sooner than later that interest rates will remain as is until sometime in 2016.10) In 2011 we had a pretty similar technical picture, and Aug was pretty ugly that year too. But The Fed came to the rescue then and it's more than possible (perhaps even probable) that they'll come to the rescue this time too.siff, where are you? Get your ### in here and opine!
Sand
Footballguy
dschuler
Footballguy
I really hope you are wrong about grub hub. I have what's for me a huge stake in Groupon. They bought Order up and do about 8x the yearly revenue with about the same size market cap
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Never heard of order up, just read this; http://techcrunch.com/2014/08/20/orderup-raises-7m-to-build-its-food-delivery-network-for-non-urbanites/
If you aren't familiar with Seamless (grubhub), read up... Besides the online ordering (which they have a stranglehold on in most major cities), they're also doing quite a lot of restaurant software. I assume you mean Groupon has 8x the revenue as Seamless?
Anyways, I can confidently say that Orderup has a very long ways to go in taking market share from Seamless, and quite honestly they prob can't. Outside of a Google or maybe a Yelp, unless you already have the audience, Seamless is so far out in front.
Grub can also turn profits on their revenue (which is growing quickly), something Groupon struggles with.
ETA: my stock pick in the 2014 contest was a Groupon short, something like a 50%er in 2014. I haven't followed them this year, but I previously hated them and their business model. I know they have a new CEO since the middle of last year, so maybe he can right the ship, but that's all I really know about them of late.
If you aren't familiar with Seamless (grubhub), read up... Besides the online ordering (which they have a stranglehold on in most major cities), they're also doing quite a lot of restaurant software. I assume you mean Groupon has 8x the revenue as Seamless?
Anyways, I can confidently say that Orderup has a very long ways to go in taking market share from Seamless, and quite honestly they prob can't. Outside of a Google or maybe a Yelp, unless you already have the audience, Seamless is so far out in front.
Grub can also turn profits on their revenue (which is growing quickly), something Groupon struggles with.
ETA: my stock pick in the 2014 contest was a Groupon short, something like a 50%er in 2014. I haven't followed them this year, but I previously hated them and their business model. I know they have a new CEO since the middle of last year, so maybe he can right the ship, but that's all I really know about them of late.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
One of my favorite Goldman elevator comments:
Groupon, food stamps for the middle class
Groupon, food stamps for the middle class
cstu
Footballguy
This and QE4. The can kicked down the road once more.This is the big one and I think it's probable they speak up sooner than later that interest rates will remain as is until sometime in 2016.10) In 2011 we had a pretty similar technical picture, and Aug was pretty ugly that year too. But The Fed came to the rescue then and it's more than possible (perhaps even probable) that they'll come to the rescue this time too.siff, where are you? Get your ### in here and opine!
shader
Footballguy
There is more leverage and debt than 2007 and China is in worse shape. No one saw a crash coming in 2007. People that thought it would happen were laughed at then.
And we are in worse shape now because there are minimal Fed tricks that can be pulled. Can't lower interest rates any lower and QE4 can be attempted, but at this point that's just a stopgap and won't have nearly the impact that the original QE did.
It may be this year or two years from now but the next crash seems virtually assured of being worse than the 2007 version IMO.
TripItUp
Footballguy
This is just a correction after a historic run.
The market needed this.
I'm certainly not getting back in anytime soon, but I do think this creates an excellent buying opportunity, just like every other market correction has.
I'll probably be getting back in, in a few weeks once the dust has settled.
The market needed this.
I'm certainly not getting back in anytime soon, but I do think this creates an excellent buying opportunity, just like every other market correction has.
I'll probably be getting back in, in a few weeks once the dust has settled.
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dickey moe
Fingerpicker
There is a ton of systemic risk wrapped up in these heavily distorted markets that have been propped up by Federal Reserve intervention and debt. Maybe that was what you were saying after all. There is going to have to be considerable deflation/deleveraging before true price discovery is achieved.
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The economy isn't on as solid footing as you assume. GDP growth has been slow and below previous trends. Wage growth is very low and the labor force has shrunk. Consumer spending and housing prices are still extremely reliant on historically low rates.fantasycurse42 said:
The (previously) impending Fed hike was always going to cause pressure to this mediocre US progress.
Few anticipating this timing alongside a serious slowdown in China. Given the Chinese peg to the dollar, expectations of the hike have further tightened monetary conditions in China. The PBoC has already spent over $400B to defend their peg and stock market. The fear continues to spread through the rest of the emerging market currencies. As in the prior Asian financial crisis.
Still, the US should be OK assuming no major ####ups and barring further financial contagion. However, the stock market is more global than just about the US. That will be interesting.
Is there a LTCM out there?
Mario Kart
Footballguy
China only fell 7.6% last night. I thought it was definitely going to be 8% lower so not too bad.
lod01
Footballguy
I wouldn't say no one. It was screaming 'crash inevitable'. $50k houses were going for $150k. People with absolutely no business owning a home were getting a loan on these overpriced houses. Banks were handing out loans like they were candy. I was just surprised it lasted as long as it did.shader said:
John Bender
Footballguy
Good morning.
Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
so far it looks to be, unless you wanted to buy yesterday and missed the chance.
John Bender
Footballguy
This.
So it's actually a crappy morning.
I couldn't get my account funded in time.
So now...we wait again.
ETA: The account funded overnight - so now I just watch my cash sit there for who knows how long.
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Peyton Marino
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'm tempted to use the opportunity to rebalance properly. I had intended to wait until December or January to do my annual rebalance but maybe I should do it early this year?
John Bender
Footballguy
grabbed a little more FCX... @ $8.97, might as well and look for a long term payoff. 
Brony
Footballguy
Did you ever having a losing day at the casino and then watch someone lose $500 in a hand and you start to feel a little better about your day? well lookie here.
But then they signal the pit boss and they wheel out a ####load more chips for them to splash around, and you go back to feeling like crap:
Brony
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
Jobber
Footballguy
cosjobs
Footballguy
I've been averaging down whenever it gets around 10. Do you really think volatility is over?
