What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Stock Thread (27 Viewers)

I believe he converted 92,308 shares of Class B stock (10:1 voting rights, but probably completely illiquid) to Class A shares (what shlubs like us own) and then sold exactly that number of class A shares. 

But it also looks like the sale was scheduled based on some timeline or formula/metric. Generally a pretty tight defense against insider trading. "I didn't make the decision to sell then based on something I knew. I scheduled that X amount of time ago based on Y"

 
He sold some other lots, too. It looks to me like he went from about 472K shares to about 288K. Still not necessarily nefarious.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
NET/DDOG/AKAM all dipping with it.  Surprising since it sounds like FSLY's big problem was just with one large customer.
Click to expand...
Well sonuva #####. Selling 300 of my 417 at $135 yesterday was a hell of a decision. I hadn’t noticed that AHs move. Saved me from losing $13.5k.

 
Don Hutson said:
HGEN announced their NIH-funded "Big Effect Trial" with remdesivir is launching.  Should provide a bit of a stock price pop.
Click to expand...
Good.

McBokonon said:
HC Wainwright initiating coverage with a $31 price target won’t hurt.
Click to expand...
Better.

Best-> https://twitter.com/AlphaTrader00/status/1316416476698427392

A Preprint study posted yesterday supporting Lenzilumab mechanism of action, GM-CSF neutralization. This could be a lifesaving drug administered to all high risk hospitalized patients.

Phase 3 results will tell the story and there is plenty of risk here, but things continue to line up. The NIH didn’t choose to dance with an OTC (now former) company with a checkered past without feeling good about drug’s prospects.

 
Looking like a bad day. I bought a few things in the afternoon, probably should have waited, but I bought smaller amounts to ease into new positions. That was a just in case they go down more and I can DCA into full positions, which looks to be the case. The only one I bought a full share on was TSM because they were announcing earnings. Beat revenue and earnings handily but still down, may nibble a little more for long term.

Any stocks people looking at now? I definitely will be watching FVRR and RGEN as I bought less than I should have but might add if they get hit.

 
pmedina said:
What’s everyone think the bottom of FSLY is?
Click to expand...
It got down into the 70s last time Tik Tock came up but that was banning. This was true loss of revenue. I don’t plan on buying in more. I’m good with the 100+ shares I have now since the cost basis is $12. I sold most of my shares on Tuesday because I thought the price had run a bit too much and that was assuming no revenue hit. I just plan to let the remaining run for the next few years unless they don’t seem to be doing well.

 
Damn, didn’t get any shares of ARRY, a solar company IPO. They bumped up the share price a few bucks, nothing like SNOW, but I’d bet they do well.

 
Might add the SE and FVRR I trimmed but in no hurry.  My watchlist is a mile long, but if Splunk gets beat up a little more I might look at it. 

 
I mean 15th of the month I usually rebalance and review things.  I got no idea what to do.  So confusing seeing EU going full shutdown and we are going streaking.  All that debt that's piling up doesn't make me want to go into bonds anywhere.  

Pork bellies sounds like the play.  All in.

 
ZM up a bit, definitely planning to unload a little. I bought it on 10/16/19 so according to some sites with date examples I’d have to wait until Monday to be more than “more” than a year. I thought it might be tomorrow but they said the holding period should start with the calendar day after you purchased and then go to the date of purchase one year later (10/16/20). That would be one year and sell the day after to be more. Not worth taking a chance selling tomorrow. I’ll probably leave myself with 20 shares, but get rid of the bulk of them. I like the company but the valuation is a good point to exit.

 
pmedina said:
What’s everyone think the bottom of FSLY is?
Click to expand...
I think it's already hit the bottom but I would probably trust stbugs read on this more than mine as he has been spot on with reading these tech stocks for like 6 months straight now.  No one better to tail on tech names right now.

I'll share my thoughts anyways and it's that we knew Tik Tok revenue would be down some due to the whole US government ordeal and the stock was still running up.  So them saying it out loud doesn't really change much other than the price it costs to buy in.  It was a one-time defined event, not an ongoing reflection of FSLY itself so if people liked FSLY at $120 a day ago I don't see why they wouldn't like it at $90 now.

It got down to mid-70's before but that was when people thought they were losing Tik Tok, their largest customer, forever.  This latest hit is just that revenues from Tik Tok were slightly down this quarter because of a one-time event. :shrug:

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I think it's already hit the bottom but I would probably trust stbugs read on this more than mine as he has been spot on with reading these tech stocks for like 6 months straight now.  No one better to tail on tech names right now.

I'll share my thoughts anyways and it's that we knew Tik Tok revenue would be down some due to the whole US government ordeal and the stock was still running up.  So them saying it out loud doesn't really change much other than the price it costs to buy in.  It was a one-time defined event, not an ongoing reflection of FSLY itself so if people liked FSLY at $120 a day ago I don't see why they wouldn't like it at $90 now.

It got down to mid-70's before but that was when people thought they were losing Tik Tok, their largest customer, forever.  This latest hit is just that revenues from Tik Tok were slightly down this quarter because of a one-time event. :shrug:
Click to expand...
Did we ever think they’d lose revenue though? The threat of a shut down loomed and that would materially affect their revenue but that never happened. That’s why I wasn’t planning to jump back in since this announcement appears to be outside of an actual shut down. Is there anywhere else where it does tie that reduction in revenue from Tik Tok to the threat of a shut down, meaning it could come back?

Also, while I have been doing well in tech, I’m not an expert! Motley Fool gave me most of my ideas, I just tried to sift through and find the ones I liked best. Plenty that I was late on but I have also avoided some stuff that worked out and went in more on ones I liked that hit.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
FreeBaGeL said:
I think it's already hit the bottom but I would probably trust stbugs read on this more than mine as he has been spot on with reading these tech stocks for like 6 months straight now.  No one better to tail on tech names right now.

I'll share my thoughts anyways and it's that we knew Tik Tok revenue would be down some due to the whole US government ordeal and the stock was still running up.  So them saying it out loud doesn't really change much other than the price it costs to buy in.  It was a one-time defined event, not an ongoing reflection of FSLY itself so if people liked FSLY at $120 a day ago I don't see why they wouldn't like it at $90 now.

It got down to mid-70's before but that was when people thought they were losing Tik Tok, their largest customer, forever.  This latest hit is just that revenues from Tik Tok were slightly down this quarter because of a one-time event. :shrug:
Click to expand...
I personally question the valuations given to all the CDN companies. AKAM, like FSLY, came to market and was a hot stock. It was in the 300's....21 years ago. It never has come close to that number again even though it is the 800 lb gorilla in the space. My belief is that CDN is a commodity, and that FSLY in particular is a low margin player in a low margin space. AKAM is the premium price CDN, and they only have something like 17% margins. I get the "need for speed" angle and maybe the FSLY's special sauce is so great it will supplant AKAM. The problem is that AKAM is only valued at 18 B after 20+ years of dominating their market which leaves me to question how to value their competitors. How much can they really grow?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
stbugs said:
Did we ever think they’d lose revenue though? The threat of a shut down loomed and that would materially affect their revenue but that never happened. That’s why I wasn’t planning to jump back in since this announcement appears to be outside of an actual shut down. Is there anywhere else where it does tie that reduction in revenue from Tik Tok to the threat of a shut down, meaning it could come back?

Also, while I have been doing well in tech, I’m not an expert! Motley Fool gave me most of my ideas, I just tried to sift through and find the ones I liked best. Plenty that I was late on but I have also avoided some stuff that worked out and went in more on ones I liked that hit.
Click to expand...
The announcement says "due to impacts of the  uncertain geopolitical environment, usage of Fastly's platform by its previously disclosed target customer did not meet expectations, resulting in a corresponding reduction in revenue from this customer".

To me that sounds like it's basically saying "Tik Tok had lower than anticipated traffic for a little while because they were banned in the US temporarily, and fewer page loads means less revenue for the CDN when that happened".

That knocked $3 billion off the market cap, roughly 30% of the company's value, for what sounds like basically a month of down revenue due to an outlier event.

 
ericttspikes said:
I personally question the valuations given to all the CDN companies. AKAM, like FSLY, came to market and was a hot stock. It was in the 300's....21 years ago. It never has come close to that number again even though it is the 800 lb gorilla in the space. My belief is that CDN is a commodity, and that FSLY in particular is a low margin player in a low margin space. AKAM is the premium price CDN, and they only have something like 17% margins. I get the "need for speed" angle and maybe the FSLY's special sauce is so great it will supplant AKAM. The problem is that AKAM is only valued at 18 B after 20+ years of dominating their market which leaves me to question how to value their competitors. How much can they really grow?
Click to expand...
That's definitely a fair assessment but I would think the bull case is that in our new streaming world there is a lot more need for CDN's now than 20 years ago when high speeds weren't nearly as necessary and when bandwidth was too limited to notice any real difference provided by a CDN anyway.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
beef said:
Nice.  I was off on timing/price target and missed on my $29 limit.  Same with FAS that I had set at $36
Click to expand...
Evidently I screwed up and didn't sell those or bought more than I thought.  Just trimmed all bought today for a 10% gain.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
The announcement says "due to impacts of the  uncertain geopolitical environment, usage of Fastly's platform by its previously disclosed target customer did not meet expectations, resulting in a corresponding reduction in revenue from this customer".

To me that sounds like it's basically saying "Tik Tok had lower than anticipated traffic for a little while because they were banned in the US temporarily, and fewer page loads means less revenue for the CDN when that happened".

That knocked $3 billion off the market cap, roughly 30% of the company's value, for what sounds like basically a month of down revenue due to an outlier event.
Click to expand...
Was it ever actually banned? I don’t believe it ever was. That’s why I was assuming it was Tik Tok just using them less.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
That's definitely a fair assessment but I would think the bull case is that in our new streaming world there is a lot more need for CDN's now than 20 years ago when high speeds weren't nearly as necessary and when bandwidth was too limited to notice any real difference provided by a CDN anyway.
Click to expand...
I agree with this. I bought some LLNW today. They seem to be tied more to streaming and have a way lower revenue multiple. Not growing as fast but just taking a shot that they will.

 
McBokonon said:
Anybody looked into LLNW? Seems like a classic turnaround story, customers include Disney+ and Peacock. Thinking of starting a small speculative position here but still looking into them.
Click to expand...


stbugs said:
I agree with this. I bought some LLNW today. They seem to be tied more to streaming and have a way lower revenue multiple. Not growing as fast but just taking a shot that they will.
Click to expand...
:kicksrock:

 
stbugs said:
My bad, must have missed it. Did you buy any? I did more because I sold all that FSLY. I’m still patting myself on the back for being really lucky with timing and seeing that price and thinking it’s time.
Click to expand...
I’m in for 100

 
stbugs said:
My bad, must have missed it. Did you buy any? I did more because I sold all that FSLY. I’m still patting myself on the back for being really lucky with timing and seeing that price and thinking it’s time.
Click to expand...
You couldn't have timed that any better. No, I haven't bought any. Earnings coming up, getting beat down with FSLY, today seems like a good time to start. I'll dabble now.

 
McBokonon said:
You couldn't have timed that any better. No, I haven't bought any. Earnings coming up, getting beat down with FSLY, today seems like a good time to start. I'll dabble now.
Click to expand...
Total luck, but seeing the 130s made me realize that if I’m a little worried about the run up I might as well trim a bit of my biggest winner in my IRA. Earnings next Thursday. We’ll see how it goes. If it’s real positive I might double my shares.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
stbugs said:
Did we ever think they’d lose revenue though? The threat of a shut down loomed and that would materially affect their revenue but that never happened. That’s why I wasn’t planning to jump back in since this announcement appears to be outside of an actual shut down. Is there anywhere else where it does tie that reduction in revenue from Tik Tok to the threat of a shut down, meaning it could come back?

Also, while I have been doing well in tech, I’m not an expert! Motley Fool gave me most of my ideas, I just tried to sift through and find the ones I liked best. Plenty that I was late on but I have also avoided some stuff that worked out and went in more on ones I liked that hit.
Click to expand...
I think I'm going to price first half '21 puts if it opens down tomorrow and perhaps write a couple more. 

 
ConstruxBoy said:
HGEN is on Nasdaq if that helps...
Click to expand...
Nah, reads like the same story. It’s almost funny how similar everything is outside of the CEO. The only thing that would worry me for HGEN is that their current big trial is tied to Remdesivir. If the latter keeps getting bad news like WHO, then being in a combined trial wouldn’t seem to be as good as a solo one, right?

 
Texas Football said:
I'm just putting this out there and I can't say this is a miracle investment, but just in case there is interest. OTC Pharma again... I had mentioned it once before, but I wasn't sure it was worth anything.

A friend recommended NWBO a few months ago and I chunked some change into it. The last two weeks it has taken off. I am just now actually doing research(reading message boards) and there seems to be some excitement.

Dare I say CYDY type excitement from June. 

Cancer treatment that may work on all solid mass tumors seems out there... It is going up with no news as they wait for data lock or unblinding. Very speculative, but just mentioning in case anyone has dealt with this one.
Click to expand...
Locked data. Doubled in one week. Good call. Lottery ticket looks good right now.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Andrew74
2025 FBG Stock Contest
2
Replies
76
Views
4K
SouthJersey
SouthJersey
Andrew74
2024 FBG Stock Contest
2 3
Replies
127
Views
7K
McBokonon
McBokonon
Joey Wright
2025-2026 NCAA College Basketball Thread
Replies
6
Views
175
SpurrierisisGod
SpurrierisisGod

Users who are viewing this thread

  • ... and 2 more.
    • Total: 21 (members: 7, guests: 14)
    Back
    Top