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Stock Thread (24 Viewers)

Capella said:
Yea I think n amazon is going to see a real push up after these results in the next few weeks. Gonna buy some more too. 
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Amazon reported blowout third-quarter results on Thursday, including a big beat on the top line and double-digit revenue growth year over year. The stock climbed 1.5% after hours.

Earnings: $12.37 vs $7.41 per share expected, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv

Revenue: $96.15 billion vs $92.7 billion expected, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv

Amazon said sales in the fourth quarter will be between $112 and $121 billion, which comes out to growth of 28% to 38% from a year earlier. Analysts were expecting revenue of $112.3 billion. 
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Capella said:
Yea I think n amazon is going to see a real push up after these results in the next few weeks. Gonna buy some more too. 
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Just picked up the share I sold an hour ago for almost $100 cheaper.  Didn't have enough conviction based on some recent bad reads to start messing around in the 5 digit range with a day trade.

 
Apple beat was tiny, that was bad news with estimates so low on everything (just about every stock has beat this earnings round).

I think AMZN popped off the good overall numbers and then dropped when they drilled down and cloud numbers were under expected.  That is their most profitable sector.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Apple beat was tiny, that was bad news with estimates so low on everything (just about every stock has beat this earnings round).

I think AMZN popped off the good overall numbers and then dropped when they drilled down and cloud numbers were under expected.  That is their most profitable sector.
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It’s almost silly. Last year they grew AWS 35% YoY in Q3. 29% this year. That 29% is on top of the 35% last year. They almost doubled the earnings estimates and had an extra $4B in revenue. That’s crazy. They were at a $321B annual revenue rate before these results AMD grew 37% YoY. That’s insane for the revenue they are already at.

It looks like their estimate for profit in Q4 is lower than expected due to spending on CV-19. I wonder if that’s a rouse because they are projecting $112-121B in revenue for Q4. How can their profit be less than Q3 when they are adding another 15% or so in revenue? Free cash flow was almost $30B this quarter.

@Capella is right, I think they’ll keep going up once people really digest. 

 
Well, got BL earnings pop right and ATVI wrong even though they beat nicely. Definitely hard to figure out and still why I’m puzzled on PINS huge pop after running up so much due to SNAP. So many good beats but no real pattern to up or down.

 
stbugs said:
It’s almost silly. Last year they grew AWS 35% YoY in Q3. 29% this year. That 29% is on top of the 35% last year. They almost doubled the earnings estimates and had an extra $4B in revenue. That’s crazy. They were at a $321B annual revenue rate before these results AMD grew 37% YoY. That’s insane for the revenue they are already at.

It looks like their estimate for profit in Q4 is lower than expected due to spending on CV-19. I wonder if that’s a rouse because they are projecting $112-121B in revenue for Q4. How can their profit be less than Q3 when they are adding another 15% or so in revenue? Free cash flow was almost $30B this quarter.

@Capella is right, I think they’ll keep going up once people really digest. 
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I got some more around 3200. Why not. 

 
$SE is pretty volatile on a daily basis but over the course of all this market volatility it’s just steady hanging in there. Earnings way after the election, might even get their banking license by then. Just thinking out loud after looking at their 3 month chart. I :wub: them.

 
stbugs said:
It’s almost silly. Last year they grew AWS 35% YoY in Q3. 29% this year. That 29% is on top of the 35% last year. They almost doubled the earnings estimates and had an extra $4B in revenue. That’s crazy. They were at a $321B annual revenue rate before these results AMD grew 37% YoY. That’s insane for the revenue they are already at.

It looks like their estimate for profit in Q4 is lower than expected due to spending on CV-19. I wonder if that’s a rouse because they are projecting $112-121B in revenue for Q4. How can their profit be less than Q3 when they are adding another 15% or so in revenue? Free cash flow was almost $30B this quarter.

@Capella is right, I think they’ll keep going up once people really digest. 
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Yeah it's a crappy standard that exists in the business world, where profits have to keep going up even if profits are already really high.  Overperforming one quarter actually hurts you the next quarter because now you have to overperform that overperformance.  I've actually railed about how ####ed our modern take on capitalism is regarding this in another thread.  If a company is making awesome profits, why is continuing to make awesome profits unacceptable, and instead next year has to be making even more awesome profits beyond that.

My buddy is a bank manager who complains about this all the time.  He consistently has the #1 performing bank in his region but a couple times a year he ends up getting chastised for a disappointing quarter and it ticks him off that any other bank in the region would be lauded for putting out those same numbers but he gets chastised for it because he has to compete against himself.

Anyway with Amazon, I saw someone I think describe it reasonably well on reddit.  "Amazon beats expectations, as expected".

 
Thinking of reloading some UVXY/SQQQ for overnight.  Friday heading into the weekend before the election, COVID outbreaks, and coming off a pretty negative reaction to big tech earnings.

 
McBokonon said:
Was looking for a microcap play, since I like to have one, the other day and my screen (which looks for large YOY revenue gains among other things) pulled up $OESX - Orion Energy Systems. Got added to the Russell in June, chart looks solid, got a government contract right before that. They look like they could be hitting their groove. They install energy-saving lighting systems and integrate IoT with it blah blah.

Earnings in the morning. I’m taking a small swing here with a small buy in the after hours in case COVID wrecked them more than they anticipated. But, their entire supply chain is domestic which they make clear on their website. 
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I think this is buyable again. I sold some after a fast run-up but it’s pulled back a bit. Earnings next week. Last time they had a great call but the stock didn’t do anything for two days presumably because nobody’s heard of it. They are definitely gaining momentum.

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Does escrow mean buy stocks with someone else's money? Because if so, I volunteer. 
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Are you familiar with CD ladders? You have to enact an equity version of that, whereby you invest 85% of the funds at the open on day 1 and structure those and additional purchases such that an equity "matures" to sale every 27 minutes throughout the course of each day thereafter.

 
McBokonon said:
LVGO/TDOC merger approved today. When does that actually happen as far as the tickers go?
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Looks like this might actually be happening today/over the weekend kind of like the stock splits? No Bid/Ask for LVGO on TD, others on Twitter saying it’s halted.

 
Love this market. I’m getting killed and I don’t think any stock I own has not beaten estimates. Amazing that AMZN is crushing me (just today, I’d have screamed like a little girl if you told me in January it would be over 3000), and they beat revenue estimates by $4B and beat the earnings estimate by 75%. I mean you can’t destroy estimates any more. A company with over $300B in revenue growing at 37% and the market doesn’t like it? If I didn’t own so much, I’d buy a lot more.

Not sure if I want to throw another chunk of cash in the ring today. What do the technical guys think? Is this going to keep going down? I’ve got a lot of cash to play with even though I’m pretty well invested. 

 
McBokonon said:
Looks like this might actually be happening today/over the weekend kind of like the stock splits? No Bid/Ask for LVGO on TD, others on Twitter saying it’s halted.
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It’s happened. LVGO is done trading. No idea when it will be settled. If it settles today, I’m thinking of just throwing all the cash back into TDOC.

ETA: TDOC under $200 looks interesting.

 
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added more TQQQ, FAS.  Loaded more funds in my day trading account too.  I'm grabbing these bulls by the d...  and going for a ride!   Fully prepared for a huge kick to the face.

 
stbugs said:
That’s what I’m fighting. I bought a little early this week although IPHI getting acquired softened that. I will likely add and save some for a further dip. 
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Yeah, I sold some stuff to get close to 50% cash and then MA missed and V went on sale and I bought both.

Welp! So much for patience!

 
It's interesting to me that TDOC is off 10% today, if it's the day they're combining the two entities. I'm half-tempted to buy more in spite of my intention to watch until after the election and in spite of the fact that my position's already a little outsized.  I was trying to figure out what would be driving it, though.

Is this institutional investors who owned both and can't sell their LVGO positions now? Making sure they aren't over-allocated after the merger?

 
I've made all of $320 on my bearish ETF plays this week.  Better than a poke in the eye, but I was angling for just a little more torque.  :lmao:

I see silver has wiggled a bit.  Might revisit AGQ which I flattened a month or so ago.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Yeah it's a crappy standard that exists in the business world, where profits have to keep going up even if profits are already really high.  Overperforming one quarter actually hurts you the next quarter because now you have to overperform that overperformance.  I've actually railed about how ####ed our modern take on capitalism is regarding this in another thread.  If a company is making awesome profits, why is continuing to make awesome profits unacceptable, and instead next year has to be making even more awesome profits beyond that.

My buddy is a bank manager who complains about this all the time.  He consistently has the #1 performing bank in his region but a couple times a year he ends up getting chastised for a disappointing quarter and it ticks him off that any other bank in the region would be lauded for putting out those same numbers but he gets chastised for it because he has to compete against himself.

Anyway with Amazon, I saw someone I think describe it reasonably well on reddit.  "Amazon beats expectations, as expected".
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I agree that this "growth at any cost" mentality is not a good thing in general, however the difference in these two situations is that Amazon's stock price is reflective of pretty much always crushing their numbers for the next several years. Unless your buddy makes multiples more than the managers at the lower performing banks it's not really the same thing, he has more of a right to complain IMO.

 
One thing I did recently was look through the holdings of 10-12 "Future Tech" ETFs to see what companies were listed as their top 20 holdings. Most of the results were companies already well heard of here, but I did see one stock that I had not heard of called Xiaomi ($XIACY). They are a Chinese smart device maker, mainly phones and IoT stuff. They're doing pretty well in Asia and are now the biggest phone maker in India, which sounds promising. So I started a small position in them as a longer term future tech hold. 

 
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ConstruxBoy said:
Wish I had more dry powder right now. 
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I thought I had enough. It’s a lot dollar wise but I’ve been buying a bit here and there. I’m off today so going to do a quick evaluation of what I have and what I want and go from there.

What stocks are you thinking about?

 
Always open to suggestions (Why not _____?), but next week planning to look at...

To initiate:
ADBE
AMT
BAM
CAT
DIS
HD
IDXX
ISRG
JPM
MELI
MKL
NNOX
SBUX
SHOP
TSM
WMT

To add:
CRM
MSFT
O
PANW
PYPL
SQ
V
WPC

 
stbugs said:
Definitely looking at TDOC since my LVGO will turn into some cash too.
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The play to hold LVGO?  I've been sitting on some was planning to hold, but starting to wonder if I should get out and see where TDOC settles before getting back on 

 
Should SAP cratering and attributing it to implementation slowdowns due to covid concern holders of stocks like CRM or do we think that's just a SAP issue?

 
ConstruxBoy said:
One thing I did recently was look through the holdings of 10-12 "Future Tech" ETFs to see what companies were listed as their top 20 holdings. Most of the results were companies already well heard of here, but I did see one stock that I had not heard of called Xiaomi ($XIACY). They are a Chinese smart device maker, mainly phones and IoT stuff. They're doing pretty well in Asia and are now the biggest phone maker in India, which sounds promising. So I started a small position in them as a longer term future tech hold. 
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Just for completeness, I ended up listing the top 20 holdings of 7 different ETFs, skipping some that had all the main names on it. Here are the 19 stocks listed in at least two different ETF Top 20 holdings, ordered by how high they were in the holdings list:

SQ

SNAP

TSLA

TWLO

XIACY

MELI

AMD

NVDA

HUBS

QCOM

LGEIY

XLNX

MDTKF

TCEHY

SPOT

AVGO

BABA

APPL

STMEF

 
Sideshow Bob said:
Should SAP cratering and attributing it to implementation slowdowns due to covid concern holders of stocks like CRM or do we think that's just a SAP issue?
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Eh, a little in my opinion, but not as much. SAP implementations are generally huge projects costing tons of time and money and affecting all parts of a business. I can see some companies slowing down on that and holding for awhile. To me the CRM implementations from companies like Salesforce are smaller and more sales/customer focused, which may be more needed in such a changing customer environment as a result of the pandemic. I think most companies would focus more on the CRM side rather than going whole hog with a full ERP project. 

 
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