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Stock Thread (17 Viewers)

Yep - I've gotten CRUSHED since last Sept when I made that post. AAPL did indeed report the greatest quarter in company history in January, but it didn't matter. My lesson learned from that debacle (which I am still recovering from today) is that the runup I was anticipating had already taken place by the time the quarter started last year.

This is the time of year the stock has traditionally traded higher, and with all of the products being backloaded, it seems ripe for an upward correction. With the dividends, stock buy backs, and fundamentals still suggesting the stock is cheap, I'm still bullish. And there are a couple of catalysts that I think could move the needle, if announced in the near future (iWatch, China Mobile deal, Apple TV).

Obviously, I'm extremely biased.
Revenue growth is the big problem for Apple. Even with new products coming out they don't offer anything unique like their previous one (slight upgrades to the iPhone 5 and iPad Mini). The cheaper iPhone 5C is going to be a hit to margins and there should be concern that it will cannibalize iPhone 5S sales.
Revenue growth is definitely an issue. The cheaper Iphone and a deal with China Mobile are key to getting revenues going again.
I'm not sure how well they will do in China with the $129 Xiaomi Hongmi already having 7 million pre-orders.

 
Yep - I've gotten CRUSHED since last Sept when I made that post. AAPL did indeed report the greatest quarter in company history in January, but it didn't matter. My lesson learned from that debacle (which I am still recovering from today) is that the runup I was anticipating had already taken place by the time the quarter started last year.

This is the time of year the stock has traditionally traded higher, and with all of the products being backloaded, it seems ripe for an upward correction. With the dividends, stock buy backs, and fundamentals still suggesting the stock is cheap, I'm still bullish. And there are a couple of catalysts that I think could move the needle, if announced in the near future (iWatch, China Mobile deal, Apple TV).

Obviously, I'm extremely biased.
Revenue growth is the big problem for Apple. Even with new products coming out they don't offer anything unique like their previous one (slight upgrades to the iPhone 5 and iPad Mini). The cheaper iPhone 5C is going to be a hit to margins and there should be concern that it will cannibalize iPhone 5S sales.
Revenue growth is definitely an issue. The cheaper Iphone and a deal with China Mobile are key to getting revenues going again.
I'm not sure how well they will do in China with the $129 Xiaomi Hongmi already having 7 million pre-orders.
Well, there are ~ 750M subscribers on their network, so I think there will be plenty of demand for iPhones, don't you?

 
Yep - I've gotten CRUSHED since last Sept when I made that post. AAPL did indeed report the greatest quarter in company history in January, but it didn't matter. My lesson learned from that debacle (which I am still recovering from today) is that the runup I was anticipating had already taken place by the time the quarter started last year.

This is the time of year the stock has traditionally traded higher, and with all of the products being backloaded, it seems ripe for an upward correction. With the dividends, stock buy backs, and fundamentals still suggesting the stock is cheap, I'm still bullish. And there are a couple of catalysts that I think could move the needle, if announced in the near future (iWatch, China Mobile deal, Apple TV).

Obviously, I'm extremely biased.
Revenue growth is the big problem for Apple. Even with new products coming out they don't offer anything unique like their previous one (slight upgrades to the iPhone 5 and iPad Mini). The cheaper iPhone 5C is going to be a hit to margins and there should be concern that it will cannibalize iPhone 5S sales.
Revenue growth is definitely an issue. The cheaper Iphone and a deal with China Mobile are key to getting revenues going again.
I'm not sure how well they will do in China with the $129 Xiaomi Hongmi already having 7 million pre-orders.
Well, there are ~ 750M subscribers on their network, so I think there will be plenty of demand for iPhones, don't you?
you think the stock has a chance to go full ####### like it did in mid-2012?

 
you think the stock has a chance to go full ####### like it did in mid-2012?
I wouldn't suggest $700 is happening anytime soon, but sentiment can change quickly. Once investors see sustained momentum, it could pile up quickly b/c everyone remembers last years run. :shrug:

 
Yep - I've gotten CRUSHED since last Sept when I made that post. AAPL did indeed report the greatest quarter in company history in January, but it didn't matter. My lesson learned from that debacle (which I am still recovering from today) is that the runup I was anticipating had already taken place by the time the quarter started last year.

This is the time of year the stock has traditionally traded higher, and with all of the products being backloaded, it seems ripe for an upward correction. With the dividends, stock buy backs, and fundamentals still suggesting the stock is cheap, I'm still bullish. And there are a couple of catalysts that I think could move the needle, if announced in the near future (iWatch, China Mobile deal, Apple TV).

Obviously, I'm extremely biased.
Revenue growth is the big problem for Apple. Even with new products coming out they don't offer anything unique like their previous one (slight upgrades to the iPhone 5 and iPad Mini). The cheaper iPhone 5C is going to be a hit to margins and there should be concern that it will cannibalize iPhone 5S sales.
They are also buying so much stock it makes me nervous that we don't know what the real floor is in the stock price. Even they can't keep buying back at the rate they did in the last quarter.
This is a fair point, but as was pointed out to me, they are retiring those shares, so supply is being reduced at the same time. Additional benefits of retiring those shares is that shrinking the denominator boosts EPS and also reduces dividend payouts.

I'd love to see them get even more aggressive with the buy back program. They can borrow the $ so cheaply that it seems like a no brainer.

 
tommyGunZ said:
Redwes25 said:
cstu said:
tommyGunZ said:
Yep - I've gotten CRUSHED since last Sept when I made that post. AAPL did indeed report the greatest quarter in company history in January, but it didn't matter. My lesson learned from that debacle (which I am still recovering from today) is that the runup I was anticipating had already taken place by the time the quarter started last year.

This is the time of year the stock has traditionally traded higher, and with all of the products being backloaded, it seems ripe for an upward correction. With the dividends, stock buy backs, and fundamentals still suggesting the stock is cheap, I'm still bullish. And there are a couple of catalysts that I think could move the needle, if announced in the near future (iWatch, China Mobile deal, Apple TV).

Obviously, I'm extremely biased.
Revenue growth is the big problem for Apple. Even with new products coming out they don't offer anything unique like their previous one (slight upgrades to the iPhone 5 and iPad Mini). The cheaper iPhone 5C is going to be a hit to margins and there should be concern that it will cannibalize iPhone 5S sales.
They are also buying so much stock it makes me nervous that we don't know what the real floor is in the stock price. Even they can't keep buying back at the rate they did in the last quarter.
This is a fair point, but as was pointed out to me, they are retiring those shares, so supply is being reduced at the same time. Additional benefits of retiring those shares is that shrinking the denominator boosts EPS and also reduces dividend payouts.

I'd love to see them get even more aggressive with the buy back program. They can borrow the $ so cheaply that it seems like a no brainer.
Basically what Icahn is calling for them to do. Besides that, this company has been on the forefront of alot of tech. advances over the yrs. Jobs passing hurt to be sure, but am i to believe the Research/Development passed with him too? I along with Icahn say undervalued, even here at nary 500.

 
Icahn wouldn't jump in if there wasn't money to be made but is he in it for the long-haul or looking for some pump and dump?

 
Wanted to short SEAS so bad yesterday. Opening down big time today. Time will tell if the Blackfish effect has any legs.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
tommyGunZ said:
Redwes25 said:
cstu said:
tommyGunZ said:
Yep - I've gotten CRUSHED since last Sept when I made that post. AAPL did indeed report the greatest quarter in company history in January, but it didn't matter. My lesson learned from that debacle (which I am still recovering from today) is that the runup I was anticipating had already taken place by the time the quarter started last year.

This is the time of year the stock has traditionally traded higher, and with all of the products being backloaded, it seems ripe for an upward correction. With the dividends, stock buy backs, and fundamentals still suggesting the stock is cheap, I'm still bullish. And there are a couple of catalysts that I think could move the needle, if announced in the near future (iWatch, China Mobile deal, Apple TV).

Obviously, I'm extremely biased.
Revenue growth is the big problem for Apple. Even with new products coming out they don't offer anything unique like their previous one (slight upgrades to the iPhone 5 and iPad Mini). The cheaper iPhone 5C is going to be a hit to margins and there should be concern that it will cannibalize iPhone 5S sales.
They are also buying so much stock it makes me nervous that we don't know what the real floor is in the stock price. Even they can't keep buying back at the rate they did in the last quarter.
This is a fair point, but as was pointed out to me, they are retiring those shares, so supply is being reduced at the same time. Additional benefits of retiring those shares is that shrinking the denominator boosts EPS and also reduces dividend payouts.

I'd love to see them get even more aggressive with the buy back program. They can borrow the $ so cheaply that it seems like a no brainer.
Basically what Icahn is calling for them to do. Besides that, this company has been on the forefront of alot of tech. advances over the yrs. Jobs passing hurt to be sure, but am i to believe the Research/Development passed with him too? I along with Icahn say undervalued, even here at nary 500.
They spend less on R&D than most large tech companies though.

 
Well here goes nothing.... the trade I have been talking about starting for what seems to be forever.

4000 IAG at $5.31
Good timing. I bought months ago at $6.46... right before it promptly took a 30% dive.What are you looking at for the stock from here?

 
Anyone buying some SLV?
No but I'm feeling better about my silver hoard.

Also, you're a ########## AMZN. I want to punch my self in the balls for putting that stop just at the top. Still hate.
Totally sucks you capitulated at exactly the number. It's like the MMs drove it there to drive/shake out all the shorties, and then bam, what should have been happening to the stock, starts finally happening. I've been there with you, probably not as bad, but it just f'n blows. I am much tighter with the 7-10% loss rule than i was a few yrs back. It has served me well from getting my ### handed to me a few times. It actually takes alot of the stress away. If my move is ill timed, i'm out with a short loss and move on. No doubling down, no chasing.

Silver.......whenever it dips into that mid to low 19 number, seems like an autopilot buy. jmo on what i've seen it doing. Has jumped to quick to be a buyer right now. A better price could/should be able to be had in the near future than what it is now.

 
Anyone buying some SLV?
No but I'm feeling better about my silver hoard.

Also, you're a ########## AMZN. I want to punch my self in the balls for putting that stop just at the top. Still hate.
Totally sucks you capitulated at exactly the number. It's like the MMs drove it there to drive/shake out all the shorties, and then bam, what should have been happening to the stock, starts finally happening. I've been there with you, probably not as bad, but it just f'n blows. I am much tighter with the 7-10% loss rule than i was a few yrs back. It has served me well from getting my ### handed to me a few times. It actually takes alot of the stress away. If my move is ill timed, i'm out with a short loss and move on. No doubling down, no chasing.

Silver.......whenever it dips into that mid to low 19 number, seems like an autopilot buy. jmo on what i've seen it doing. Has jumped to quick to be a buyer right now. A better price could/should be able to be had in the near future than what it is now.
It certainly felt that way but I'm such a small timer and that is even an exaggeration.

Good for you on buying in the 19 range. I wanted to buy more myself have been short funds lately.

 
Our old old old old friend Paragon Shipping had a huge day on Friday, up 20%.

been a long time since we discussed that Long term turd. I remember when we owned some crazy amount of shares back when it was in the now split adjusted 40's and 50's... now after a big day it hit $6.

 
Yeah, I sold UUU and kept EFRFF
Sold mine Tuesday for another $3300 loss.

I bought 50k worth of VIMSX (1829 @ $27.33) and another 50K worth of VFINX to give me 485 @ $154.64.
That beats a bigger loss, which I firmly believe is coming in that name.

And look, nobody on this board has lost more in uranium over the years than me. My salary/bonus is tied to it, never mind my personal account/retirement.
It's been bumpy but I'm riding it out. Japan is planning to reopen their nuclear plants next July and I think that will be a huge psychological boost for investors. They are currently importing so much more energy (something like $70 billion a year) that it's simply not economically feasible over the long-term and despite the public's wishes they have to do it.

 
Well here goes nothing.... the trade I have been talking about starting for what seems to be forever.

4000 IAG at $5.31
Good timing. I bought months ago at $6.46... right before it promptly took a 30% dive.What are you looking at for the stock from here?
Sorry missed this yesterday. I just bought more and I plan to buy even more in the future.

My take on Gold is it has bottomed. Both Gold and Silver are used commodities and are in demand. The simple fact is a majority of producers aren't' profitable below 1200. That puts in a relative floor for the price. Now can it trade down to 900 for a short period of time? Sure it can, but it wont be able to stay there for very long because they will just board up the mine and create the shortage that will send the price higher. Anyways I'm operating with the theory that the recent time in the mid 1200's is gong to be the medium term bottom for the price of Gold. Does that mean it' going to smash through 1380's? Probably not. But I think it will eventually.

My plan is to hold the 6000 shares for now and see what it does with the 1360 gold level. if it reverses I'll sell it all and rebuy when it gets closer to 1250.

 
All of my income investments are turning out to be a failure. I guess I didn't fully understand the affect that the 10 year treasury surging in rate so FAST would have on these choices.

I've lost over 15% of my value in just the last 3 mo.

Even my REITs are getting absolutely hammered.

I'm not one to bail easily... but if higher interest rates are in fact here to stay and they are only going to go higher, is it time to cut my losses on these investments?

Normally i'd look at a time of weakness to buy, but this seems different.

I hold many high 6-7% investments and i don't understand why someone would be tempted to get 2.8% risk free over 10 years when these preferred stocks and REITs pay much much better.. but they are falling hard and i'd have no issue cutting my losses.

 
All of my income investments are turning out to be a failure. I guess I didn't fully understand the affect that the 10 year treasury surging in rate so FAST would have on these choices.

I've lost over 15% of my value in just the last 3 mo.

Even my REITs are getting absolutely hammered.

I'm not one to bail easily... but if higher interest rates are in fact here to stay and they are only going to go higher, is it time to cut my losses on these investments?

Normally i'd look at a time of weakness to buy, but this seems different.

I hold many high 6-7% investments and i don't understand why someone would be tempted to get 2.8% risk free over 10 years when these preferred stocks and REITs pay much much better.. but they are falling hard and i'd have no issue cutting my losses.
Throw it all into AAPL for 2 months, make 20%, then go back in.

 
All of my income investments are turning out to be a failure. I guess I didn't fully understand the affect that the 10 year treasury surging in rate so FAST would have on these choices.

I've lost over 15% of my value in just the last 3 mo.

Even my REITs are getting absolutely hammered.

I'm not one to bail easily... but if higher interest rates are in fact here to stay and they are only going to go higher, is it time to cut my losses on these investments?

Normally i'd look at a time of weakness to buy, but this seems different.

I hold many high 6-7% investments and i don't understand why someone would be tempted to get 2.8% risk free over 10 years when these preferred stocks and REITs pay much much better.. but they are falling hard and i'd have no issue cutting my losses.
Throw it all into AAPL for 2 months, make 20%, then go back in.
Isn't this the mindset that had you shtickily preparing for divorce a month ago?

 
All of my income investments are turning out to be a failure. I guess I didn't fully understand the affect that the 10 year treasury surging in rate so FAST would have on these choices.

I've lost over 15% of my value in just the last 3 mo.

Even my REITs are getting absolutely hammered.

I'm not one to bail easily... but if higher interest rates are in fact here to stay and they are only going to go higher, is it time to cut my losses on these investments?

Normally i'd look at a time of weakness to buy, but this seems different.

I hold many high 6-7% investments and i don't understand why someone would be tempted to get 2.8% risk free over 10 years when these preferred stocks and REITs pay much much better.. but they are falling hard and i'd have no issue cutting my losses.
I'm getting killed as well. I don't understand the mentality either.

 
All of my income investments are turning out to be a failure. I guess I didn't fully understand the affect that the 10 year treasury surging in rate so FAST would have on these choices.

I've lost over 15% of my value in just the last 3 mo.

Even my REITs are getting absolutely hammered.

I'm not one to bail easily... but if higher interest rates are in fact here to stay and they are only going to go higher, is it time to cut my losses on these investments?

Normally i'd look at a time of weakness to buy, but this seems different.

I hold many high 6-7% investments and i don't understand why someone would be tempted to get 2.8% risk free over 10 years when these preferred stocks and REITs pay much much better.. but they are falling hard and i'd have no issue cutting my losses.
Throw it all into AAPL for 2 months, make 20%, then go back in.
Isn't this the mindset that had you shtickily preparing for divorce a month ago?
good investors are like cornerbacks - short memories. :D

 
All of my income investments are turning out to be a failure. I guess I didn't fully understand the affect that the 10 year treasury surging in rate so FAST would have on these choices.

I've lost over 15% of my value in just the last 3 mo.

Even my REITs are getting absolutely hammered.

I'm not one to bail easily... but if higher interest rates are in fact here to stay and they are only going to go higher, is it time to cut my losses on these investments?

Normally i'd look at a time of weakness to buy, but this seems different.

I hold many high 6-7% investments and i don't understand why someone would be tempted to get 2.8% risk free over 10 years when these preferred stocks and REITs pay much much better.. but they are falling hard and i'd have no issue cutting my losses.
I'm in a similar boat. Sucks when you go out of your way to choose a lower risk strategy in an effort just to not lose money. It had looked like the fixed income market stabilized as of a couple of weeks ago, but looking at a 5 year view, there's still plenty more it could go down.

 
All of my income investments are turning out to be a failure. I guess I didn't fully understand the affect that the 10 year treasury surging in rate so FAST would have on these choices.

I've lost over 15% of my value in just the last 3 mo.

Even my REITs are getting absolutely hammered.

I'm not one to bail easily... but if higher interest rates are in fact here to stay and they are only going to go higher, is it time to cut my losses on these investments?

Normally i'd look at a time of weakness to buy, but this seems different.

I hold many high 6-7% investments and i don't understand why someone would be tempted to get 2.8% risk free over 10 years when these preferred stocks and REITs pay much much better.. but they are falling hard and i'd have no issue cutting my losses.
I'm in a similar boat. Sucks when you go out of your way to choose a lower risk strategy in an effort just to not lose money. It had looked like the fixed income market stabilized as of a couple of weeks ago, but looking at a 5 year view, there's still plenty more it could go down.
fortunately i'm still up on these investments with the dividends i've collected.. and compared to what i would've gotten in an online savings account or CD it's been great.. still up probably 4-5% rather than up the 1-2% i would've gotten in a CD.

But i was up 20%

I guess the good part is that i can harvest some capital losses if i sell.

 
I will also share a stock I started buying last month that I really like for long-term fundamentals. AFC Enterprise (AFCE) runs Popeye's restaurants and is executing a major re-branding and expansion plan. The CEO seems very strong and came to the company a few years ago with a solid background in both consumer marketing and restaurant management.

Note: While there seems to be plenty of room for growth both domestically and internationally, the stock has already run up 46% this year. And, with a market cap under $1B and avg. vol. of only about 200k/day, expect some volatility. As always, DYODD.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AFCE&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p95628265989
They just purchased 12 failing KFC stores here in the Twin Cities. I love me some Popeye's. A good buy, both food-wise and investment-wise. :)
This purchase has been a big success. On today's earnings call, they said that the converted restaurants are significantly above the national average in sales volume. Keep up the good work. ;)

 
Mystery Achiever said:
I will also share a stock I started buying last month that I really like for long-term fundamentals. AFC Enterprise (AFCE) runs Popeye's restaurants and is executing a major re-branding and expansion plan. The CEO seems very strong and came to the company a few years ago with a solid background in both consumer marketing and restaurant management.

Note: While there seems to be plenty of room for growth both domestically and internationally, the stock has already run up 46% this year. And, with a market cap under $1B and avg. vol. of only about 200k/day, expect some volatility. As always, DYODD.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AFCE&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p95628265989
They just purchased 12 failing KFC stores here in the Twin Cities. I love me some Popeye's. A good buy, both food-wise and investment-wise. :)
This purchase has been a big success. On today's earnings call, they said that the converted restaurants are significantly above the national average in sales volume. Keep up the good work. ;)
You sure are sitting pretty. Looks like a 20%+ profit if you bought during the ides of June. I really wish I had followed when you posted. Got any more hot tips cause I have more funds at my fingertips, thanks to bragging to my family to about my success with aapl and cbrx, but I have run dry on ideas. All the stocks that I run through my test are turning up negative. I don't want to chase. Personally, I am currently stuck with two stinkers. West marine, low volume, don't recommend it to my worst enemy, but I will get out when I have something better to invest in. DR Horton, bad timing by me, but I think it will cash in before the end of the year. If you can buy in at low 18 or 17s it makes a good swing trade. Profits from Apple and Columbia Labs are carrying me right now. I'm still looking at OLN, ELP, VLO and others but I'm always open to suggestions. I especially respect your opinion Mystery Achiever. You seem to have a cautious approach to the market but you are rarely, if ever, wrong.

 

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