Politician Spock
Footballguy
It's speculation that the emerging market currency crisis will compel the Fed to delay additional tappering.
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Stock Thread (22 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
It feels like guidance just keeps getting pushed lower...
Just about everyone reporting today AH is down.
Just about everyone reporting today AH is down.
sbonomo
Footballguy
i am surprised that some of my longterm plays are having a good day (FB, BAC,AMZN, F, Etc). i have been writing covered calls on my FB stock all year. Based on the today, i am really considering doing that for my other owned stocks as well. Seems like there will be a lot of treading water over the next few months. Anyone have a similar strategy?
culdeus
Footballguy
Looking at getting moving towards an ishares model portfolio http://us.ishares.com/portfolio_strategies/model_portfolios/ishares_hedged_risk_income_models_index.htm
Target 4.5% yield with different risk aversion strategies.
Target 4.5% yield with different risk aversion strategies.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Skylord
Footballguy
Sarnoff
Footballguy
Hey Siff, haven't seen you around in a bit. New blog posts coming soon? Love your stuff.
Agreed that there's a ST probability of bouncing around. I'm not 100% cash or anything, just protecting some gains and limiting exposure right now and changing where my regular weekly contributions go. Not fully rebalancing yet. But I think there's a good chance we head down for a bit this year and again in 2016.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
S&P already testing support.
optionmaven
Footballguy
Great strategy. One my stepfather uses all the time. Of course he has grumblings when stock gets called away and they continue to run, but thats part of the game. Presently, i am doing this very thing with my 600 shares of ONVO. Great insurance policy and if it gets called away at a decent profit, so be it. Move on to the next one.
optionmaven
Footballguy
My last rant on aapl. Dear Mr. Cook, CFO, COO and anyother m'f'n C on their board. Next earnings report, please lie on your forward guidance. Revise down if necessary during the quarter if you have to. Thanks for your cooperation in advance. Signed, a non stockholder option speculator.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Just don't understand FB valuation... I work in tech and this is the definition of people who don't understand tech/digital/publishers setting the price. In 3 years from now I don't know if they'll have rev/profits to justify today's valuation.
ETA: I'm far from an investing guru, so can someone please explain their valuation to me? It's almost laughable IMO
ETA: I'm far from an investing guru, so can someone please explain their valuation to me? It's almost laughable IMO
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siffoin
Footballguy
OMAHA! OMAHA! OMAHA!
Possible that the recent highs are it. Even if those were the highs and we're in the process of turning bearish - it would be exceedingly rare for the market to just collapse straight down before going back towards those old highs. I don't think we're at a place to panic but rather a place to pay more attention to the portfolio.
Each person is uniquely positioned. Depending on your entry points and current profits go a long way in determining how much rope you want to give the market before she hangs you. Be flexible and adjust accordingly. Let's say you hold DDD from $40 (ahem St Louis Bob). Well you might want to start looking hard at a place to take profits- perhaps below $72 for a mental stop but still hold out hope for more upside as a RT example. You want to let big winners run as long as possible- so sure $72 would be a disappointing exit - but if I look realistically, I'd consider such a trade from $40 in less than a year a home run. I'm not great at pegging EXACT tops and bottoms.
I'll stick with one thing that works, which is to not be afraid to take profits, even small ones, if those profits are at risk. There is no sin in re-buying at a little higher price if you happen to be wrong. The consequences of not taking profits appropriately can be devastating.
Predicting the future is a tough biz to be in. Sometimes you're a hero and sometimes you're a goat.
I think the real question is what happens after the next ST market bounce? THAT imo will determine whether these last few days were a buying opportunity blip or something more significant is afoot.
As for the blog. If something of significance happens I'll update...or if I can come up with something of value. I'm quite interested to see if that LT Dow Chart begins to turn down - but won't know till at least the weekend.
Thanks for the nice words.
Sarnoff
Footballguy
Glad to hear. I actually think your blog updates are at about the right pace... don't want to use that forum for day-to-day stuff, just for when there's something deserving of being noticed. Happy that you're keeping up with it.I'm not thrilled with where the market's at right now, and I think we're gonna get a better hint of the general direction by the end of next week. I'm not a day-to-day market watcher, I'm more of a "check on it every month or so" person, so, I can wait out short-term trends a bit, but these days I do check more often just to see if there are any signals I need to pay attention to. It's about time I start plugging away at some new charts.
Thanks!
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Facebook is like a popular TV show. Eventually it become old and tired and people start watching other shows instead. And finally it gets cancelled. One could make a short term profit trading FB, but as a buy and hold you might as well flush your money down the toilet.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
Thoughts on ZNGA?
Been watching but what is keeping it from exploding or imploding?
Been watching but what is keeping it from exploding or imploding?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
How long do you have to be established before your numbers have to equal your valuation? 10 years isn't long enough? $150 billion? Is the market serious? If FB has a market cap of $150 billion at $60 then GOOG should be trading for $3300 a share.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Frankly, I think they just got lucky with the FB relationship that sent many people to them and gave groups of people a way to socialize and game at the same time. That dissipated as more people started going online via mobile. Have they had any successful games for mobile since Words with Friends?
The other trigger for the stock was their plans to enter online gaming. But the new CEO squashed that. So I am not seeing any good catalysts for them now.
ETA- They actually just pre-announced a slight ( one cent) earnings beat, layoffs (15% of staff) and an acquisition of a company that could hasten their move to mobile.
http://recode.net/2014/01/30/amid-layoffs-zynga-acquires-naturalmotion-for-half-a-billion-dollars/
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culdeus
Footballguy
Putting trailing stops on basically everything to migrate to this type of AA%. It could be a mess to manage if things go sideways for a month or two. Trying to develop a spreadsheet to figure out how to manage it, but haven't settled on exactly the best way. Luckily, I am commission free in this account.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
FB higher market cap than Citi 
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Hey GB.
Sold all 100 shares @ $78.68 then bought 50 more at $74.27. ####ed up in letting the second trade turn from a really nice winner to a potential loser. My thought was GOOG would light it up and the rising tide would help DDD tomorrow. I'm looking to sell tomorrow and be happy with my additional profit.
sbonomo
Footballguy
This thread is for actual buyers and big boys that actually are looking for good advice...tread lightly in here post "hard deletion" of your stock buying thread. Now, I actually own the ipo (2000 shares)...thinking this might be a good exit point...i have covered calls written on my entire position so i have 12 downword points covered through Feb....I just cant figure it out...the valuation is stupid. I plan to keep hedging myself with the calls until i make a choice whether this is a long term hold or not. I have almost double my investment so it is hard not to take my profits off the table....it was my pick for the stock contest...FB higher market cap than Citi
ETA: because of my position at work i am not allowed to day trade meaning that i have to hold anything i buy for a minimum of 30 days. It makes taking profits to rebuy much more difficult.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The valuation is beyond stupid!! I just don't get it... Their ceiling is nowhere near GOOG, yet somehow they have 35-40% of the market cap... Either GOOG should be more or FB should be less - The spread should be like 90-10 between these two Internet giants.This thread is for actual buyers and big boys that actually are looking for good advice...tread lightly in here post "hard deletion" of your stock buying thread. Now, I actually own the ipo (2000 shares)...thinking this might be a good exit point...i have covered calls written on my entire position so i have 12 downword points covered through Feb....I just cant figure it out...the valuation is stupid. I plan to keep hedging myself with the calls until i make a choice whether this is a long term hold or not. I have almost double my investment so it is hard not to take my profits off the table....it was my pick for the stock contest...FB higher market cap than Citi
ETA: because of my position at work i am not allowed to day trade meaning that i have to hold anything i buy for a minimum of 30 days. It makes taking profits to rebuy much more difficult.
Politician Spock
Footballguy
Can we say volatility is back?
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
The Ref
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
market tanking at the open eh? Time to hop back into some stuff?
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
I've honestly been thinking for several months that 2014 couldn't end up being much of a year for overall gains after 30+% in 2013. So if we're down 10% on the year or whatever I wouldn't be surprised.
I haven't felt enough conviction in my thoughts to pull all my money out or anything though.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Didn't get the bump I was hoping for but cashed out all of DDD all the same.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Whats your thought on the possible increase or just speculation?jamny said:
jamny
Footballguy
I'm just looking at it as a short term play and anticipate going in and out throughout the year. I'd be happy to hold it for 2014 though. Some good news in the pipeline, it seems. Of course, you never know with trials.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Oy, now there is a mutual fund for 3D printing. Can't find a full portfolio list yet, but I hope investors actually look at it and understand what they are getting before they buy.. This smacks of marketing over substance to me.
http://www.3dpfund.com/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rakeshsharma/2014/01/30/a-mutual-fund-for-3d-printing/
http://www.3dpfund.com/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rakeshsharma/2014/01/30/a-mutual-fund-for-3d-printing/
The FB valuation has never made sense to me and it just keeps going up.fantasycurse42 said:The valuation is beyond stupid!! I just don't get it... Their ceiling is nowhere near GOOG, yet somehow they have 35-40% of the market cap... Either GOOG should be more or FB should be less - The spread should be like 90-10 between these two Internet giants.sbonomo said:This thread is for actual buyers and big boys that actually are looking for good advice...tread lightly in here post "hard deletion" of your stock buying thread. Now, I actually own the ipo (2000 shares)...thinking this might be a good exit point...i have covered calls written on my entire position so i have 12 downword points covered through Feb....I just cant figure it out...the valuation is stupid. I plan to keep hedging myself with the calls until i make a choice whether this is a long term hold or not. I have almost double my investment so it is hard not to take my profits off the table....it was my pick for the stock contest...FB higher market cap than Citi
ETA: because of my position at work i am not allowed to day trade meaning that i have to hold anything i buy for a minimum of 30 days. It makes taking profits to rebuy much more difficult.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I've been waiting for this and hate I wasn't part of it. Wish I would have realized earning were coming out.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
AMZN vs FB
Relatively similar market caps, 5 years from, does anyone think FB will be worth more than AMZN?
Relatively similar market caps, 5 years from, does anyone think FB will be worth more than AMZN?
This sounds miserable. Wake me up if Facebook finds a revenue strategy besides annoying people with ads.
Profiles of dead friends recomending brands is always a nice touch though.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Might buy some MA - Had some before the split at 595 and sold around 705... Long term really like them - Today might make for a good opportunity.
Amazon tanking today
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
As much as you guys have cracked HUCKS jokes in the past, I think it has become more obvious I am not, nor do I try to represent a financial guru... Anyways, I have a FA who handles a lot of our savings, but I also play around with a decent portion of the balance. I have been trying to come up with an investing strategy for a little while that I just want to set and forget for at least 4-5 years while adding to it on a quarterly basis... This is what I'm thinking about doing, any opinions or criticism is welcome:
Just waiting for an entry point over the next couple of months:
50% into no-load Vanguard funds:
VFINX
NAESX
VISVX
VGSIX
VDMIX
VFSVX
VEIEX
VTRIX
10 percent S&P 3x Pro Shares
UPRO
Remaining 40 percent in stocks I think just are destined to continue to grow
GOOG
MA
T (Dividend purposes)
AMZN
Just waiting for an entry point over the next couple of months:
50% into no-load Vanguard funds:
VFINX
NAESX
VISVX
VGSIX
VDMIX
VFSVX
VEIEX
VTRIX
10 percent S&P 3x Pro Shares
UPRO
Remaining 40 percent in stocks I think just are destined to continue to grow
GOOG
MA
T (Dividend purposes)
AMZN
