fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I don't think it should be, but it's funny reading some of the stuff from the higher ups at Merrill, JP Morgan, etc.
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Stock Thread (40 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Nikkei went up huge just because they thought we'd have good news. I don't get it either. It wouldn't surprise me to see a huge blood bath Monday.
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Uranium has been such an awful investment since Fukushima, but this news is significant:
Paladin Energy suspends Malawi mine on weak uranium price
Fri 10:33 am by Deborah Bacal
Paladin Energy (TSE
DN)(ASXDN) announced Friday that it is suspending production at its Kayelekera uranium mine in Malawi, calling the operation a substantial drain on its cash resources over the last three years.
The company told investors that the suspension will involve placing the operation on care and maintenance status until the price of uranium recovers.
The move is expected to preserve the remaining ore body until this time, when Paladin decides that production can resume on a profitable basis. The price of uranium oxide has been depressed ever since March 2011, when the Fukushima earthquake and tsunami hit in Japan. During this period, the spot uranium price has more than halved from US$72.63 per pound prior to Fukushima, to a current price of US$35.50 per pound.
The government of Malawi holds a 15% interest in Paladin's African subsidiary (PAL), which holds the uranium mine in Malawi. The company said it will work with government authorities to implement the suspension, which is also a result of the "unsustainable" cash burden to maintain the loss-making operation.
"The Kayelekera Mine has performed exceptionally well technically, with production levels recorded at or near nameplate capacity over the past 12 months and significant achievements made in PAL's cost reduction programme," said CEO John Borshoff.
"Nevertheless, despite these considerable efforts, KM continues to operate at a loss due to the low prevailing uranium price. Paladin is unable to continue to provide the level of financial support that PAL has required in recent years, hence the decision at this time."
Indeed, the company said that based on a uranium price of US$35 per pound, Paladin would have had to inject a further US$20 to $25 million in cash for each of the next two years to maintain the operation.
Paladin is forecasting that putting the mine on care and maintenance will improve its expected cash flow position by US$7 to US$10 million in 2014 and in the range of US$20 to US$25 million in 2015.
The cost of suspension, estimated at US$12 million per year, will be funded from proceeds to be received from the sale of uranium oxide on hand and produced during the rundown phase, Paladin said.
The company noted that production and cost estimates for its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, which has a significantly lower cost profile than Kayelekera, will not be affected by the suspension.
As a result of the decision, the company revised its production forecast for this year downwards, to 7.8 to 8.0 million pounds of uranium oxide, from its previous guidance of 8.3 to 8.7 million pounds.
Shares of Paladin fell to as low as 46 cents on Friday morning, after closing at 48.5 cents on Thursday in Toronto.
Paladin Energy suspends Malawi mine on weak uranium price
Fri 10:33 am by Deborah Bacal
Paladin Energy (TSE
DN)(ASXDN) announced Friday that it is suspending production at its Kayelekera uranium mine in Malawi, calling the operation a substantial drain on its cash resources over the last three years.The company told investors that the suspension will involve placing the operation on care and maintenance status until the price of uranium recovers.
The move is expected to preserve the remaining ore body until this time, when Paladin decides that production can resume on a profitable basis. The price of uranium oxide has been depressed ever since March 2011, when the Fukushima earthquake and tsunami hit in Japan. During this period, the spot uranium price has more than halved from US$72.63 per pound prior to Fukushima, to a current price of US$35.50 per pound.
The government of Malawi holds a 15% interest in Paladin's African subsidiary (PAL), which holds the uranium mine in Malawi. The company said it will work with government authorities to implement the suspension, which is also a result of the "unsustainable" cash burden to maintain the loss-making operation.
"The Kayelekera Mine has performed exceptionally well technically, with production levels recorded at or near nameplate capacity over the past 12 months and significant achievements made in PAL's cost reduction programme," said CEO John Borshoff.
"Nevertheless, despite these considerable efforts, KM continues to operate at a loss due to the low prevailing uranium price. Paladin is unable to continue to provide the level of financial support that PAL has required in recent years, hence the decision at this time."
Indeed, the company said that based on a uranium price of US$35 per pound, Paladin would have had to inject a further US$20 to $25 million in cash for each of the next two years to maintain the operation.
Paladin is forecasting that putting the mine on care and maintenance will improve its expected cash flow position by US$7 to US$10 million in 2014 and in the range of US$20 to US$25 million in 2015.
The cost of suspension, estimated at US$12 million per year, will be funded from proceeds to be received from the sale of uranium oxide on hand and produced during the rundown phase, Paladin said.
The company noted that production and cost estimates for its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia, which has a significantly lower cost profile than Kayelekera, will not be affected by the suspension.
As a result of the decision, the company revised its production forecast for this year downwards, to 7.8 to 8.0 million pounds of uranium oxide, from its previous guidance of 8.3 to 8.7 million pounds.
Shares of Paladin fell to as low as 46 cents on Friday morning, after closing at 48.5 cents on Thursday in Toronto.
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fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
The comments from the head of the Philly Fed (not sure if he is a voter?) suggest they want out and out quick.. I completely agree with what you are saying, but I think it'll take a 6-12 months for the impact of no QE to be felt and then it could be lookout below.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Most overvalued stocks ever:
TSLA
LNKD
FB
I would never short bc these things appear bulletproof, but their valuations are so beyond ridiculous.
TSLA
LNKD
FB
I would never short bc these things appear bulletproof, but their valuations are so beyond ridiculous.
sbonomo
Footballguy
i really don't understand tsla....that thing is a monster that i would never bet against. FB is an anomaly for me. I own the IPO so i am in the green (really wished i would have doubled up at 20). They have such a broad user base if they are ever able to monetize they will be one of the biggest companies in the world. I think i will keep writing covered calls on this thing until it either takes a crap or i get called out...No exposure to lnkd...I have never been a fan so let someone else deal with the headache..
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
They're almost half of GM... One delivers gazillions of cars, the other delivers thousandssbonomo said:
sbonomo
Footballguy
I do not disagree. I would love to short that pig but having followed it for years i would never make that play. Possibly a long term put? Once again, i feel as though the premium paid is way to much to risk. Supposidly in a perfect market this would work itself out eventually.....I don't have the stones to put my money where my mouth is on it though..They're almost half of GM... One delivers gazillions of cars, the other delivers thousandssbonomo said:
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I agree, I don't have the balls either... This is just one of those things with no logic - they sell an extra 1000 cars, their stock goes up 2.5 billion. Eventually it'll be close to Ford & at that point people will pause...I do not disagree. I would love to short that pig but having followed it for years i would never make that play. Possibly a long term put? Once again, i feel as though the premium paid is way to much to risk. Supposidly in a perfect market this would work itself out eventually.....I don't have the stones to put my money where my mouth is on it though..They're almost half of GM... One delivers gazillions of cars, the other delivers thousandssbonomo said:
And when that happens, investors are going to get slaughtered on that thing - it'll be fast and ugly. I don't want to get caught during the wrong swing long or short on TSLA so I can't touch it.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
What do we say, kids? Just pool our resources and buy North American Palladium outright?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Although I say there is a less than one percent chance of this happening, this chart is lining up more and more.
1929 chart vs today
1929 chart vs today
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
i'm convinced. I'm out
All joking aside while I did find the chart interesting, it's amazing to think how different the entire stock market worked back then... i mean there probably wasn't even such a thing as a Chartist back then
culdeus
Footballguy
It simply can't happen that fast. Back in 1929 floor traders handled everything. You might see a 15% haircut in a week, but something that drastic simply can't happen anymore. 1929 people basically just sold everything at market and there were no buyers, no index funds, no multi asset funds, nobody to come in and scoop up due to prospectus. People simply went home and blew their brains out.
jason12vb
Footballguy
It's getting harder and harder to ignore, that's for sure. With today's regulations it's crazy to think the bottom could fall out like it did and I expect the market is already somewhat prepared for it so it's hard to see a 40% drop....but still, is the threat and the graph enough to make individual investors panic sell and wait for a correction, leading to a 20 or 25% drop? With so many people preparing for a correction, could the uptick be as drastic as we've ever seen?
sbonomo
Footballguy
agreed.I agree, I don't have the balls either... This is just one of those things with no logic - they sell an extra 1000 cars, their stock goes up 2.5 billion. Eventually it'll be close to Ford & at that point people will pause...I do not disagree. I would love to short that pig but having followed it for years i would never make that play. Possibly a long term put? Once again, i feel as though the premium paid is way to much to risk. Supposidly in a perfect market this would work itself out eventually.....I don't have the stones to put my money where my mouth is on it though..They're almost half of GM... One delivers gazillions of cars, the other delivers thousandssbonomo said:
And when that happens, investors are going to get slaughtered on that thing - it'll be fast and ugly. I don't want to get caught during the wrong swing long or short on TSLA so I can't touch it.
siffoin
Footballguy
Though major market tops have many similarities...each major trend is unique. Each is made of of different characteristics that will over-value the market and cause a correction. The market today is not like the market of 1929.
Crash? Just not going to happen in this day and age. At least not like what you saw in the previous century.
It's not hard to overlay charts of a bullish/topping "XYZ" stock or market index that will look similar to 1929. That's because of the similarities of the wave patterns that exist in bull markets. Similar patterns exist in bear markets too.
We are in a window for a market top (or a market that has topped). Such "windows" have been overcome quite easily the past 5 years. It's possible this time is different. It's also possible we get juiced out of the "correction" window too. But I doubt we'd see any type of strong continuous drop without a number of chances to exit back near the highs. This could be one of those chances. Or this could be the place to buy buy buy. Time will tell.
I think it always wise to pay attention to your specific positions- especially when we are in a correction window. In general or they moving up in price or moving down in price. Ie: are they bullish or bearish? (and I don't mean over the past 3-4 days- think 3-4 weeks or 1-2 months) And act accordingly.
It would be extremely difficult to perfectly time a market top. But is pretty easy to find a ZONE near the top after the market has made clear her downward intentions.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I was just posting the chart, I highly doubt we see a crash until QE is over...
But I would define Sept 2008 until March of 2009 as a massive crash.
siffoin
Footballguy
Individual investors are to the stock market "game" like waterboys are to a football game. Both provide liquid nourishment to the "real" players. But neither are part of the "real" game being played.
siffoin
Footballguy
PI is bearish - confirmed.
SPY is conflicted as of today.
QQQ is conflicted as of today
IWM is bearish
Daily resistance on the $ES_F (SP500 futures which varies slightly from the SPX) is 1805ish then 1830ish. So assuming a close above 1805 we'd probably run towards 1830.
A week ago I'd say the bear window was wide open...today I see it is 50:50.
Again individual stocks show varying results of being bullish or bearish- and that's why you should pay attention to those to determine whether to dump and run or hold/add.
The "script" of what happens immediately after major market tops is being followed right now, but this script can be overcome, and we are close to where players need to show their hands.
jason12vb
Footballguy
I realize that we are completely insignificant as individuals....a drop of sweat rolling off a fan that's absorbed without a trace of existence, but are you saying the collective effect of all the individual investors out there have almost as little impact on the overall game? What percentage of the market is made up of individual investors...is it even 1%?
siffoin
Footballguy
Central bankers (Fed mainly) and member firms are what really impacts the market today. It is what it is. I guess if all of the individual investors rose up at one time they could make an impact. But rules and the structure of how people are positioned in the market would make a collective "rising-up" impossible Though fans in a football stadium outnumber players - the fans have little to zero impact in the outcome of the game (sorry 12th man). You cannot compete against the Fed, big firms or the high frequency trading computer bots. Best you can do is ride their coattails. You can see this just over the past few trading days- how there is a "shock and awe" response to a slight correction. An honest response would have occurred over a period of weeks...not hours. It ain't individual investors bidding the market up.jason12vb said:
We are all just "fans" of this game. And the players will collectively decide the outcome to their own self-interest without regard to how that outcome impacts you or me. It's a shame because real corrections are opportunities for the new and the innovative to replace the old, the stagnate and the corrupt. But not many will protest the old, the stagnate and the corrupt when they are making money from it. Again- It's a shame from my perspective.
I used to fancy myself as a remora swimming in a sea of sharks. Now I guess I'd be lucky to be the bacteria on the remora in a sea of sharks. And it's quite possible I am (you are) just the unwitting chum.
Note: I am not short this market. I hold quite a few long positions. I hold a significant cash position too. Looking for how the next short term trend unfolds to determine how I'll re-allocate. At this point I'm in a wait and see mode.
jason12vb
Footballguy
I appreciate you taking the time to respond, I'm a pretty insignificant fan of this game even in relation to the average insignificant bacteria or chum or whatever you want to call the individual investor, but am fascinated by it.
Sarnoff
Footballguy
Thanks for your insight, siff.
Exactly where I am too right now. Long in a lot of places, but not overexteded anywhere. Significant cash amounts ready to be unleashed in a short timeframe if needed. But just waiting to see where things are going before I commit to any strategy right now. Re-allocation assessments to be done within the next few months I think.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
For people interested in small biotech and other healthcare companies, a ton of them are presenting at the Leerink healthcare conference today and tomorrow. I noticed several from the stock contest. You can access all of the webcasts from this link. Click Conference Agenda to see all for today. (You may need to enter an email address to see). They will be available for replay, so you don't have to listen live . I figured it might be useful to some, since it is not so easy to find info on the smaller companies.
http://leerink.metameetings.com/confbook/healthcare14/home.php
http://leerink.metameetings.com/confbook/healthcare14/home.php
The Ref
Footballguy
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Been watching GALE since it was mentioned, but this doesn't appear to be good news.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2021901-a-deeper-look-at-the-galena-biopharma-controversy?source=google_news
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2021901-a-deeper-look-at-the-galena-biopharma-controversy?source=google_news
jamny
Footballguy
Yeah, I got stopped out at a loss a few weeks ago. I was looking to get back in but this has been interesting news.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
So if Galena is doing it, how many others are/were too?
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Politician Spock
Footballguy
It's APMEX.com. They're just using ebay to find customers. If it's better deal than anything you can find on their website, then go for it.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
yeah very interesting you have to think it has been done before maybe just not at this level. Clever though... Unless you get caught
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
This stock has really picked up steam, even after announcing an expanded secondary offering last week.I am up 30% already. Thanks again.
culdeus
Footballguy
No problem. Keep in mind I don't invest in individual stocks so it was more of an industry insight, not some valuation play.
Black Box
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
BTW there's some smoke to be found with Apple looking into IR spec systems. At least a few people think they have some shell companies looking into it for a wearable. Keep a close eye on that. Anything more than a whisper rumor of this getting out could send lots of bio firms down huge.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
That is exactly what I was looking for. I didn't take it as a stock reco, but wouldn't have found it to research without your mention. They are also an interesting turnaround story as they pay down debt which ballooned on Blackstone's LBO That is what they are doing with proceeds of the secondary.
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Mario Kart
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Does that mean you didn't buy it?Mario Kart said:
I downloaded a NaturalMotion game out of curiosity after I posted and it is a prettty nice interface. I think the acquisitions will definiytely help since, as posted earlier, the slow transition to mobile was a big issue. Still not convinced it is enough, but expectations may keep it moving for awhile.King (Candy Crush) just filed for their IPO. Lots of comparisons being made to ZYnga and whether they can do a better job of keeping popular titles coming.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Chtp 
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
TSLA delivered 6,892 vehicles in Q4... gotta be worth at least $30,000,000,000 :whoosh:
It'll be the individual investor left holding this one near the top, whenever that happens.
FB will soon be worth more than Visa/MC combined which I find a little odd.
It'll be the individual investor left holding this one near the top, whenever that happens.
FB will soon be worth more than Visa/MC combined which I find a little odd.
Mister Martie
Footballguy
Tesla isn't being valued based on the cars they sold last quarter.
culdeus
Footballguy
You realize that the key components in damn near every electric car on the market has Tesla IP, or Tesla hardware in it right?
