Stock Thread (22 Viewers)

[fantasycurse42]

I get it, Tesla is being valued as if everything goes perfectly for the next X amount of years... Same way FB is being valued.

I think everything should be valued like this, quite a sweet gig Wall Street has going... I think FC42 should be valued the same - My next job interview, I'm going to say I should be paid this bc I'll be worth it in 10 years if I hit on all cylinders.

 

[fantasycurse42]

FWIW, I have no positions in any of these companies and I don't anticipate having any...

I just think there will come a time that they will both crash hard. Maybe they keep going to the moon, or eventually land on the moon, but currently I think they are getting a little frothy. I'm just a random schmuckface that doesn't know a lot, so obviously I could be completely wrong.

 

[jamny]

I bought some PBPB when it dipped to $30.00 last week. Doubled up today at $24.00.

Such a crowded market. I don't see how PB sets itself apart from the rest. It's not like Chipotle, which is at least a little unique.

I disagree. I think it's well set up to grow and dominate the market. There are a billion Subway locations and their food is garbage.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1725522-potbelly-follows-a-starbucks-like-strategy

also not sure how Chipotle is unique when they have to compete with Taco Bell, Qdoba, Baja Fresh, Moe's, and many other smaller taco/burrito chains around the country.

I guess it's a regional thing because I've never seen a Baja Fresh, Qdoba or Moe's in NYC. They only have to compete with Taco Bell and that's not a problem.

Not saying you can't make money with PB but I wouldn't touch it until it settles back towards it's IPO around $14, maybe under $20. Way too much risk at this point, imo.

It might make it down to $14.

 

[siffoin]

I get it, Tesla is being valued as if everything goes perfectly for the next X amount of years... Same way FB is being valued.

I think everything should be valued like this, quite a sweet gig Wall Street has going... I think FC42 should be valued the same - My next job interview, I'm going to say I should be paid this bc I'll be worth it in 10 years if I hit on all cylinders.

I get it, Tesla is being valued as if everything goes perfectly for the next X amount of years... Same way FB is being valued.

I think everything should be valued like this, quite a sweet gig Wall Street has going... I think FC42 should be valued the same - My next job interview, I'm going to say I should be paid this bc I'll be worth it in 10 years if I hit on all cylinders.

I'm always looking for a company that's undervalued as a critical aspect of determining whether or not to buy (or sell). I use fundamentals to tell me what to buy and technicals to tell me when to buy it.

So at a market cap of $25B...is TSLA undervalued or overvalued? It's really an easy answer if you measure solely by fundamentals (overvalued), but if you are mainly focused on their future prospects, then the question becomes a tough one to answer.

I can remember back in 2000 the "market" valued the company Infospace at $1200 per share - and the reason many felt it was was a "bargain" at $1200 was based upon the "future prospects of the company". (back in 2000 there were a whole lot of companies that were being mis-priced based upon future assumptions that were not accurate). A year later Infospace was trading below $30...and I doubt when it was $1200 anyone thought within a year it would be under $30. Absolutely No ####### Way. But it happened because $30 was a whole lot closer to the REAL value of Infospace than $1200.

Point being - in a manic stage people don't properly value assets...and if we're in a manic stage of the market (that's IF) TSLA is most likely not being valued properly, and at some point in time True Value and Share Price Meet.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I get it, Tesla is being valued as if everything goes perfectly for the next X amount of years... Same way FB is being valued.

I think everything should be valued like this, quite a sweet gig Wall Street has going... I think FC42 should be valued the same - My next job interview, I'm going to say I should be paid this bc I'll be worth it in 10 years if I hit on all cylinders.

I get it, Tesla is being valued as if everything goes perfectly for the next X amount of years... Same way FB is being valued.

I think everything should be valued like this, quite a sweet gig Wall Street has going... I think FC42 should be valued the same - My next job interview, I'm going to say I should be paid this bc I'll be worth it in 10 years if I hit on all cylinders.

Point being - in a manic stage people don't properly value assets...and if we're in a manic stage of the market (that's IF) TSLA is most likely not being valued properly, and at some point in time True Value and Share Price Meet.

But what's the catalyst that determines this (assuming a stock is in a manic stage)?

Hypothetically, Tesla keeps rising and all of the sudden has the same market cap as Ford, but 1/10 the earnings, does this make people stop and think?

 

[siffoin]

I get it, Tesla is being valued as if everything goes perfectly for the next X amount of years... Same way FB is being valued.

I think everything should be valued like this, quite a sweet gig Wall Street has going... I think FC42 should be valued the same - My next job interview, I'm going to say I should be paid this bc I'll be worth it in 10 years if I hit on all cylinders.

I get it, Tesla is being valued as if everything goes perfectly for the next X amount of years... Same way FB is being valued.

I think everything should be valued like this, quite a sweet gig Wall Street has going... I think FC42 should be valued the same - My next job interview, I'm going to say I should be paid this bc I'll be worth it in 10 years if I hit on all cylinders.

Point being - in a manic stage people don't properly value assets...and if we're in a manic stage of the market (that's IF) TSLA is most likely not being valued properly, and at some point in time True Value and Share Price Meet.

But what's the catalyst that determines this (assuming a stock is in a manic stage)?

Hypothetically, Tesla keeps rising and all of the sudden has the same market cap as Ford, but 1/10 the earnings, does this make people stop and think?

Let me just say this. If WhatsApp* is valued at $19B. TSLA is significantly undervalued. The two companies side by side I'd say TSLA got be worth upwards of $250-500B.- meaning at a minimum TSLA is 10x the company WhatsApp is. So if you believe in WhatsApp...you should be buying TSLA hand over fist for a run north of $2000.

That's puts us right now at some phase of a 1999 re-do (it could be early in the phase for all I know). Or perhaps this time it's different.

*Seriously...a cross-platform texting app that would need every single personn the world to adopt and pay for for x numberof years before they every came close to a $19B value. Has the world lost its ####### mind?

 

[fantasycurse42]

Let me just say this. If WhatsApp* is valued at $19B. TSLA is significantly undervalued. The two companies side by side I'd say TSLA got be worth upwards of $250-500B.- meaning at a minimum TSLA is 10x the company WhatsApp is. So if you believe in WhatsApp...you should be buying TSLA hand over fist for a run north of $2000.

That's puts us right now at some phase of a 1999 re-do (it could be early in the phase for all I know). Or perhaps this time it's different.

*Seriously...a cross-platform texting app that would need every single personn the world to adopt and pay for for x numberof years before they every came close to a $19B value. Has the world lost its ####### mind?

I think FB is the most over valued company ever... Not surprised by this at all.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm loading up on CHTP

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I bought some PBPB when it dipped to $30.00 last week. Doubled up today at $24.00.

Such a crowded market. I don't see how PB sets itself apart from the rest. It's not like Chipotle, which is at least a little unique.

I disagree. I think it's well set up to grow and dominate the market. There are a billion Subway locations and their food is garbage.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1725522-potbelly-follows-a-starbucks-like-strategy

also not sure how Chipotle is unique when they have to compete with Taco Bell, Qdoba, Baja Fresh, Moe's, and many other smaller taco/burrito chains around the country.

I guess it's a regional thing because I've never seen a Baja Fresh, Qdoba or Moe's in NYC. They only have to compete with Taco Bell and that's not a problem.

Not saying you can't make money with PB but I wouldn't touch it until it settles back towards it's IPO around $14, maybe under $20. Way too much risk at this point, imo.

It might make it down to $14.

I've been supremely disappointed in their store here. I'm assuming it's a franchise, though I don't know that. If this is what they're all like outside Chicago, things are not going to well for them. They need better QC.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Actually, I have to take that back. I did hit one in Columbus that was every bit as good as the ones in Chicago, so I know it's not strictly there. Whether it's franchise vs. company owned or just one location, I've no idea.

 

[jamny]

I bought some PBPB when it dipped to $30.00 last week. Doubled up today at $24.00.

Such a crowded market. I don't see how PB sets itself apart from the rest. It's not like Chipotle, which is at least a little unique.

I disagree. I think it's well set up to grow and dominate the market. There are a billion Subway locations and their food is garbage.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1725522-potbelly-follows-a-starbucks-like-strategy

also not sure how Chipotle is unique when they have to compete with Taco Bell, Qdoba, Baja Fresh, Moe's, and many other smaller taco/burrito chains around the country.

I guess it's a regional thing because I've never seen a Baja Fresh, Qdoba or Moe's in NYC. They only have to compete with Taco Bell and that's not a problem.

Not saying you can't make money with PB but I wouldn't touch it until it settles back towards it's IPO around $14, maybe under $20. Way too much risk at this point, imo.

It might make it down to $14.

I've been supremely disappointed in their store here. I'm assuming it's a franchise, though I don't know that. If this is what they're all like outside Chicago, things are not going to well for them. They need better QC.

I only tried it once, somewhere on Park Ave. S. It was not good and I said I'd never go back. There's one on 55th that I pass by a lot and it's almost always empty. There's a very big lunch crowd in the area too. Not sure what they're doing but it's not working here.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Actually, I have to take that back. I did hit one in Columbus that was every bit as good as the ones in Chicago, so I know it's not strictly there. Whether it's franchise vs. company owned or just one location, I've no idea.

stock is tanking

oh well. I eat there more than anywhere else.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Actually, I have to take that back. I did hit one in Columbus that was every bit as good as the ones in Chicago, so I know it's not strictly there. Whether it's franchise vs. company owned or just one location, I've no idea.

stock is tanking

oh well. I eat there more than anywhere else.

They opened a Potbelly's on 17th street between Broadway and 5th Ave... This is prob the busiest street by Union Square for lunch (rent has to be a gazillion dollars a month).

Anyways, when it first opened a little over a year ago, the place was pretty crowded on a daily basis - Now I walk by and it isn't nearly as crowded. They opened another one 3 blocks away on 14th st between 5th & 6th Ave - Place is always empty & I'd assume it will be closed soon. There is however a Five Guys across the street that is usually crowded.

 

[avoiding injuries]

I'm loading up on CHTP

 

[avoiding injuries]

Actually, I have to take that back. I did hit one in Columbus that was every bit as good as the ones in Chicago, so I know it's not strictly there. Whether it's franchise vs. company owned or just one location, I've no idea.

stock is tankingoh well. I eat there more than anywhere else.

I eat here at least a couple of times a week. The downtown location consistently doesn't have a seat open around noon and the line is out the door. The suburban location I go to has had long lines, but lately it's been pretty empty.

 

[Drifter]

Trucking companies all doing well in the market in Q4 driven by the strong lead indicators in Retail. Q4 Spot rate market has been extremely hot and capacity tight.

Most of the stocks in this area reflect that but I think there is still value in some of the non-assets who should benefit from the hit spot market rates, specifically CH Robinson $56.35 (CHRW), and Landstar $55.51 (LSTR) until Q4 earnings are announced.

Among the asset providers, I like Swift (SWFC) below $22 ($22.92 now) and JB Hunt (JBHT) below $70 ($75.98) if they happen to fall.

A company I really like is Heartland Express (HTLD) currently trading at $18.03 still riding high from the purchase of a very well run private company, Gordon Trucking in October. I'll like pick them up below $18 with an eye on a longer term hold unless Q4 earnings knock it out of the park.

Update

HTLD: 19.47 (+1.44)

CHRW : $57.40 (+$1.05)

LSTR: $57.311 (+$1.86)

Swift heading below $22 where I think it's a buy.

Update:

HTLD: 21.09 (+3.26/+18%)

CHRW: $59.60 ( +3.25/+5.7%)

LSTR $58.49 (+2.98/+5.4%)

SWFT: $21.69 - Now a strong buy for a long position through most of 2014.

JBHT: $78.92 - would still lay off

Nice on SWFT..

Thanks. I think there's additional value there this year as they have been pretty aggressive at m&a and I expect that to continue.

JBHT came close to getting below 70 but I don't think it's going to get there. I still think there's some Value there below $72 where it currently sits. Similar for CHRW 54

 

[identikit]

I'm loading up on CHTP

Tell me what you see here.

Intrigued.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'm loading up on CHTP

Tell me what you see here.

Intrigued.

A problem with about 300,000 patients and no solution - Not saying Northera is the perfect solution, but most should try it since they have no other options... The trials so far have been more positive than negative too, hence the FDA approval.

Where they are valued now on top of the accelerated FDA approval, I could see them as a takeover target... I see a lot more upside potential in the next 12-18 months than downside risk, so I'm rolling the dice...

 

[jamny]

Actually, I have to take that back. I did hit one in Columbus that was every bit as good as the ones in Chicago, so I know it's not strictly there. Whether it's franchise vs. company owned or just one location, I've no idea.

stock is tanking

oh well. I eat there more than anywhere else.

They opened a Potbelly's on 17th street between Broadway and 5th Ave... This is prob the busiest street by Union Square for lunch (rent has to be a gazillion dollars a month).

Anyways, when it first opened a little over a year ago, the place was pretty crowded on a daily basis - Now I walk by and it isn't nearly as crowded. They opened another one 3 blocks away on 14th st between 5th & 6th Ave - Place is always empty & I'd assume it will be closed soon. There is however a Five Guys across the street that is usually crowded.

I walked past the one I mentioned earlier (45th between 5th & 6th) around 1PM today. Bigger crowd than I usually see there.

 

[identikit]

I'm loading up on CHTP

Tell me what you see here.

Intrigued.

A problem with about 300,000 patients and no solution - Not saying Northera is the perfect solution, but most should try it since they have no other options... The trials so far have been more positive than negative too, hence the FDA approval.

Where they are valued now on top of the accelerated FDA approval, I could see them as a takeover target... I see a lot more upside potential in the next 12-18 months than downside risk, so I'm rolling the dice...

Thanks for the insight.

May just buy some myself.

 

[General Malaise]

Alright smart people....how does the public play pothole repair? Winter has absolutely trashed roads. My in-laws are in town this week from Michigan and the tales of having to drive around giant potholes all over the Detroit area are hellacious. A brokeasssss city like Detroit will never fix their potholes, but I'm guessing crews around the country will be very very busy this year fixing up roads. How do I play that?

 

[culdeus]

Alright smart people....how does the public play pothole repair? Winter has absolutely trashed roads. My in-laws are in town this week from Michigan and the tales of having to drive around giant potholes all over the Detroit area are hellacious. A brokeasssss city like Detroit will never fix their potholes, but I'm guessing crews around the country will be very very busy this year fixing up roads. How do I play that?

That's mostly a refinery play, no? Asphalt is for all intents a byproduct of gasoline production. Poor municipalities won't pour 3000psi stuff so they will go dumpster diving in the poop left behind from dino dan being made into 93 octane.

 

[General Malaise]

Alright smart people....how does the public play pothole repair? Winter has absolutely trashed roads. My in-laws are in town this week from Michigan and the tales of having to drive around giant potholes all over the Detroit area are hellacious. A brokeasssss city like Detroit will never fix their potholes, but I'm guessing crews around the country will be very very busy this year fixing up roads. How do I play that?

That's mostly a refinery play, no? Asphalt is for all intents a byproduct of gasoline production. Poor municipalities won't pour 3000psi stuff so they will go dumpster diving in the poop left behind from dino dan being made into 93 octane.

I was thinking more along the lines of an uptick in construction equipment lease/rental/purchase, but your line of thought makes sense. But I know less about oil/gas/refinery than I know about ballet.

 

[The Ref]

It seems like a really critical point to the market here.

You could tell me we will blow though 1845 on our way to the 2000's soon or that this is a re-test of the top and that we are headed back below 1740 in short order and I'd be willing to believe either case.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

U3O8 miners with a pretty good day.

WE'RE ALL GOING TO BE RICH!!!!!

 

[sbonomo]

I was recently sold my position in FB (of course it goes from 65 to 70 in a heart beat). Looking to reploy that money or rebuy if it gets killed in a quick shift in the market.

 

[Mario Kart]

I was recently sold my position in FB (of course it goes from 65 to 70 in a heart beat). Looking to reploy that money or rebuy if it gets killed in a quick shift in the market.

Buy at $70 and sell it again at $65. Easy $$$$$

I knew I should have bought this damn thing a year ago. I had faith in it but I'm not sure if I still have it (as in to go higher).

 

[The Ref]

It seems like a really critical point to the market here.

You could tell me we will blow though 1845 on our way to the 2000's soon or that this is a re-test of the top and that we are headed back below 1740 in short order and I'd be willing to believe either case.

2000's it is.... happy days are here again.

 

[culdeus]

I haven't looked at it but the 1929 overlay chart has to be tracking perfectly again.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

U3O8 miners with a pretty good day.

WE'RE ALL GOING TO BE RICH!!!!!

RICH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[St. Louis Bob]

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

 

[Al Czervik]

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

Me too. Been holding shares forever waiting for them to be back above water.

 

[Brony]

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

Dang, I should have hung in there another 15 months. I could have clawed my way back from "down a lot" to "just down a little".

 

[General Malaise]

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

 

[General Malaise]

Lot's of positive news in the uranium sector, though after several years of being burned by the stove, I'm reluctant to fuel any of these positions. Except URG....I'm going to add to that one as I'm in the green now. I also made a lot of money on this one before Fukushima, so....there's a small love affair.

 

[lod01]

It seems like a really critical point to the market here.

You could tell me we will blow though 1845 on our way to the 2000's soon or that this is a re-test of the top and that we are headed back below 1740 in short order and I'd be willing to believe either case.

2000's it is.... happy days are here again.

Yep. But look at the yahoo chart for the S&P max. time frame and then add in that we are once again at an alltime high of margin debt in the markets.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#symbol=^gspc;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2014/02/08/stock-market-warning-signs-record-4449-billion-of/

The last 2 times this happened the chart looked the same. With so much margin debt, once this SHTF, then these markets will come crashing down hard. Right now I can't see what will cause it but something will eventually. There is no way to get out from under so much margin $ in the markets without it dropping dramatically.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

Me too. Been holding shares forever waiting for them to be back above water.

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

I'm seriously happy.

Lot's of positive news in the uranium sector, though after several years of being burned by the stove, I'm reluctant to fuel any of these positions. Except URG....I'm going to add to that one as I'm in the green now. I also made a lot of money on this one before Fukushima, so....there's a small love affair.

That's where I'm at too. I read that article yesterday about URG & DNN being possible take over targets. I hope somebody pays a fortune for them.

 

[uconnalum]

Any thoughts on FCUUF in this Uranium Sector. I may also buy a small amount of URG or DNN based on the takeover talk.

 

[uconnalum]

Took a position with DNN should of also established one with URG when it opened down because it turned green again.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

Me too. Been holding shares forever waiting for them to be back above water.

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

I'm seriously happy.

Lot's of positive news in the uranium sector, though after several years of being burned by the stove, I'm reluctant to fuel any of these positions. Except URG....I'm going to add to that one as I'm in the green now. I also made a lot of money on this one before Fukushima, so....there's a small love affair.

That's where I'm at too. I read that article yesterday about URG & DNN being possible take over targets. I hope somebody pays a fortune for them.

Lol

After Rockport got wrapped into DNN, it would take $200 spot for me to make money off DNN.

UUUU, on the other hand, has been berry berry goods to me. 55% at the moment.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

Me too. Been holding shares forever waiting for them to be back above water.

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

I'm seriously happy.

Lot's of positive news in the uranium sector, though after several years of being burned by the stove, I'm reluctant to fuel any of these positions. Except URG....I'm going to add to that one as I'm in the green now. I also made a lot of money on this one before Fukushima, so....there's a small love affair.

That's where I'm at too. I read that article yesterday about URG & DNN being possible take over targets. I hope somebody pays a fortune for them.

Lol

After Rockport got wrapped into DNN, it would take $200 spot for me to make money off DNN.

UUUU, on the other hand, has been berry berry goods to me. 55% at the moment.

$200 spot would be better than being the only dude during an orgy with the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders.

 

[General Malaise]

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

Me too. Been holding shares forever waiting for them to be back above water.

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

I'm seriously happy.

Lot's of positive news in the uranium sector, though after several years of being burned by the stove, I'm reluctant to fuel any of these positions. Except URG....I'm going to add to that one as I'm in the green now. I also made a lot of money on this one before Fukushima, so....there's a small love affair.

That's where I'm at too. I read that article yesterday about URG & DNN being possible take over targets. I hope somebody pays a fortune for them.

Lol

After Rockport got wrapped into DNN, it would take $200 spot for me to make money off DNN.

UUUU, on the other hand, has been berry berry goods to me. 55% at the moment.

Sorry, GB.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

Me too. Been holding shares forever waiting for them to be back above water.

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

I'm seriously happy.

Lot's of positive news in the uranium sector, though after several years of being burned by the stove, I'm reluctant to fuel any of these positions. Except URG....I'm going to add to that one as I'm in the green now. I also made a lot of money on this one before Fukushima, so....there's a small love affair.

That's where I'm at too. I read that article yesterday about URG & DNN being possible take over targets. I hope somebody pays a fortune for them.

Lol

After Rockport got wrapped into DNN, it would take $200 spot for me to make money off DNN.

UUUU, on the other hand, has been berry berry goods to me. 55% at the moment.

Sorry, GB.

Between Neo, Amaya, and the initial Uranium runup, you could float me losers for half a decade and I'd come out of it OK. Some I follow and some I don't. I'm a big boy. I'm responsible for my own decisions.

 

[TheWalkmen]

Who do you think will benefit from Tesla's proposed factory? Any companies that make graphite that go into batteries? Like Northern Graphite you #######s.

 

[swirvenirvin]

biofuel :hyper:

 

[sbonomo]

I was recently sold my position in FB (of course it goes from 65 to 70 in a heart beat). Looking to reploy that money or rebuy if it gets killed in a quick shift in the market.

Buy at $70 and sell it again at $65. Easy $$$$$

I knew I should have bought this damn thing a year ago. I had faith in it but I'm not sure if I still have it (as in to go higher).

I honestly don't think i would buy again until it hit the 50's mark....i bought the IPO so i have more than doubled my investment. I just don't get the valuation.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Who do you think will benefit from Tesla's proposed factory?

Their shareholders, company is apparently unstoppable.

 

[General Malaise]

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

Me too. Been holding shares forever waiting for them to be back above water.

HMFS I'm almost even on URG!

I'm seriously happy.

Lot's of positive news in the uranium sector, though after several years of being burned by the stove, I'm reluctant to fuel any of these positions. Except URG....I'm going to add to that one as I'm in the green now. I also made a lot of money on this one before Fukushima, so....there's a small love affair.

That's where I'm at too. I read that article yesterday about URG & DNN being possible take over targets. I hope somebody pays a fortune for them.

Lol

After Rockport got wrapped into DNN, it would take $200 spot for me to make money off DNN.

UUUU, on the other hand, has been berry berry goods to me. 55% at the moment.

Sorry, GB.

Between Neo, Amaya, and the initial Uranium runup, you could float me losers for half a decade and I'd come out of it OK. Some I follow and some I don't. I'm a big boy. I'm responsible for my own decisions.

All time high in Amaya....

 

[St. Louis Bob]

All time high in Amaya....

DDD earnings tomorrow before the open. Anybody playing?

I have 25 shares at the current price, I'm holding. Was considering doubling up or selling all day. Think I'll hold and double up if it tanks.

 

[sbonomo]

All time high in Amaya....

DDD earnings tomorrow before the open. Anybody playing?

I have 25 shares at the current price, I'm holding. Was considering doubling up or selling all day. Think I'll hold and double up if it tanks.

I was thinking of rebuying this one. My problem is that i have to hold for 30 days. I may take a small position this afternoon and cross my fingers.