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Stock Thread (34 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
NIU Kicker
Footballguy
Even with the IDRA ### pounding I took a few months back my accounts are at an all time high. Between that and the zillow quote i saw this am I'm feeling rich.
Last time I felt like this it was 2008......
General Malaise
Footballguy
Trading in Amaya Gaming Group Inc. (AYA), reported to be in talks to acquire gambling website PokerStars, was halted following a 28 percent surge in the past two days.
Amaya, a maker of gambling equipment and systems, surged 17 percent to C$14.08 today in Toronto before trading was halted. The company is discussing a deal that would potentially allow PokerStars to return to the U.S., the website CalvinAyre.com reported in May. The stock was halted for pending news, according to a statement from the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.
Tim Foran, a spokesman for Amaya, declined to comment in an e-mail yesterday, citing company policy not to comment on rumors or speculation. Eric Hollreiser, a spokesman for PokerStars, also declined to comment.
Acquiring PokerStars would mark a significant leap for Amaya in the $4 billion global business of online poker. The company, based near Montreal, generated $155 million in revenue last year. Gaining new ownership would remove an obstacle for PokerStars, the largest site of its kind, to return to the U.S., after past clashes with authorities prevented the site from taking part in legal online gambling emerging in some states.
PokerStars agreed in 2012 to pay $731 million to settle money-laundering charges with the Justice Department. Founder Isai Scheinberg remains under indictment in the U.S. His company, Rational Group Ltd., is based in the Isle of Man.
Amaya, a maker of gambling equipment and systems, surged 17 percent to C$14.08 today in Toronto before trading was halted. The company is discussing a deal that would potentially allow PokerStars to return to the U.S., the website CalvinAyre.com reported in May. The stock was halted for pending news, according to a statement from the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.
Tim Foran, a spokesman for Amaya, declined to comment in an e-mail yesterday, citing company policy not to comment on rumors or speculation. Eric Hollreiser, a spokesman for PokerStars, also declined to comment.
Acquiring PokerStars would mark a significant leap for Amaya in the $4 billion global business of online poker. The company, based near Montreal, generated $155 million in revenue last year. Gaining new ownership would remove an obstacle for PokerStars, the largest site of its kind, to return to the U.S., after past clashes with authorities prevented the site from taking part in legal online gambling emerging in some states.
PokerStars agreed in 2012 to pay $731 million to settle money-laundering charges with the Justice Department. Founder Isai Scheinberg remains under indictment in the U.S. His company, Rational Group Ltd., is based in the Isle of Man.
Card Trader
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I love you, GB.
General Malaise
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
Wow - my first reaction to what just happened was sell it all, but now I'm thinking it's 2004 again and it's time to buy.
I just got a call from my bank. They were reviewing my mortgage and they wanted to know if I wanted to do anything with my house, or go on a special vacation or buy a new car....... "According to our records" my wife and I can come in and pick up a check for as much as $100K (after we do a real apprasial) and re-fi our current mortgage at just .15% higher then our current note (with zero points, but some fees).
I bought the house 18 months ago. Granted I put a nice hunk of cash down when we bought the house, but this is just silly.
I just got a call from my bank. They were reviewing my mortgage and they wanted to know if I wanted to do anything with my house, or go on a special vacation or buy a new car....... "According to our records" my wife and I can come in and pick up a check for as much as $100K (after we do a real apprasial) and re-fi our current mortgage at just .15% higher then our current note (with zero points, but some fees).
I bought the house 18 months ago. Granted I put a nice hunk of cash down when we bought the house, but this is just silly.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
"I always thought gambling was fun, but then GM introduced me to gambling on gambling and my life was never the same thereafter."
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
How stupid is this going to get?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
This is where I lack the experience with smaller companies to really know the right way to handle something like this. I originally thought somewhere in the $9.50-$10.50 range would be my exit point for this. We're obviously well beyond that now.
With something that had significant volume, it would be easy enough to set a floor to exit. But this isn't AAPL. With fewer than 10,000 shares typically traded daily, you could blow past that and easily miss where you want to exit. It would be easy enough to be conservative and sell about 1/4 of holdings to get basis out of it, but well, that's no fun.
Realistically, though, how much further can this thing go? At some point, there have to be logistical issues when the little girl who owns her own lemonade stand decides she wants to sell vodka-lemonades to people in Minsk.
With something that had significant volume, it would be easy enough to set a floor to exit. But this isn't AAPL. With fewer than 10,000 shares typically traded daily, you could blow past that and easily miss where you want to exit. It would be easy enough to be conservative and sell about 1/4 of holdings to get basis out of it, but well, that's no fun.
Realistically, though, how much further can this thing go? At some point, there have to be logistical issues when the little girl who owns her own lemonade stand decides she wants to sell vodka-lemonades to people in Minsk.
siffoin
Footballguy
Congrats on a HR.
Typically, if I'm still bullish about the LT prospects, then I'd want to be selling shares to cover my initial cost basis, and then don't have to worry about any kind of day-to-day - week-to-week price volatility.
If there are options available - you can often sell 1/3 of the position to recoup your initial costs AND purchase LT slightly OOM calls and control the same amount of shares but the position has $0 cost basis...retaining 2/3 of the initial position in stock AND 1/3 position in LT calls.
Likely that it would be difficult for your position to violate Rule #1 (never let a winner turn to a loser), but you don't want to let a sure HR turn into a single either.
General Malaise
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yeah, I sold some today. Kinda felt like I had to.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Interesting story here...
Sports camera maker GoPro recently announced plans for an IPO, which provided key details for component maker Ambarella (NASDAQ: AMBA ) . More specifically, Ambarella is vital to GoPro's operations, as it makes semiconductors found in every single GoPro camera.
Key GoPro component
A quick glance through GoPro's prospectus shows that Ambarella is a vital contributor. Listed in the company's risk factors is, "We incorporate video compression and image processing semiconductors from one provider into all of our cameras." GoPro makes it known that there is no alternative supplier.
An upcoming GoPro IPO will put shares of Ambarella into the spotlight, which could be a great catalyst to boost shares that are currently down over 20% in the last year. In the last month, shares have risen 8%, but are down from their highs, seen around the time the prospectus was released.
The company helps companies with wearable sports cameras, automotive aftermarket cameras, and IP security cameras. Ambarella has seen some of its growth from sports cameras fall, as GoPro experienced declining sales in its most recent quarter.
Growth beyond GoPro
Ambarella is vital to GoPro and its cameras, but GoPro isn't as important to Ambarella and its financials. Lately, Ambarella has seen stronger growth in its IP security camera business. That growth could rocket further, with tech giant Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) (NASDAQ:GOOGL ) getting involved.
Reports indicate Google has been considering acquiring Dropcam, a maker of home security cameras. Dropcam also uses Ambarella for its cameras, which retail for approximately $150 each. The thought process is, Google wants Dropcam to integrate with its newly acquired Nest brand. Google spent $3.2 billion to acquire Nest, maker of smart thermostats and smoke detectors. It seems Google wants a bigger piece of the growing connected home market. Apple is also a possible acquirer of Dropcam.
An acquisition of Dropcam by a tech giant would be beneficial for Ambarella, as it would significantly boost sales. A deal would also further diversify Ambarella away from sports cameras and put it further ahead in the growing smart home security market. Dropcam streams footage of its cameras to phones or computers, and also includes an upgrade service with cloud capabilities.
Financials
Ambarella recently reported strong first-quarter earnings. The company saw revenue increase 21% to $40.9 million. Earnings per share rose to $0.25, up from $0.21 the prior year. Gross margins declined slightly due to lower sales of sports cameras. Management stated that results were driven by growth in the company's IP security camera business.
The strong first quarter follows a fourth-quarter report that saw revenue increase 26.8% to $40.0 million. In fiscal 2013, total revenue increased 30.2% to $157.6 million. Full-year gross margins increased, and full-year earnings per share grew to $0.85, up from $0.60 in the prior year.
Ambarella trades with no debt and over $140 million in cash, which isn't bad for a company with a market capitalization of $745 million. The company continues to see high short interest of around 17%, despite growing sales and strong insider ownership (47% owned by founder Nick Woodman and his wife, Jill).
Analysts predict Ambarella's revenue will grow 16% in fiscal 2015 and 23% in fiscal 2016. Earnings per share are also expected to grow to $1.17 and $1.47 per share in the next two years, respectively.
Conclusion
Shares of Ambarella have traded between $13-$36 over the last year. With the announcement of the GoPro IPO, shares have jumped to $26 and will likely carry momentum for the next couple of weeks.
With upcoming catalysts (GoPro's IPO and a possible Dropcam sale), Ambarella shares can easily return to one-year highs. The next few earnings releases should provide further double-digit revenue increases and send shares higher.
Sports camera maker GoPro recently announced plans for an IPO, which provided key details for component maker Ambarella (NASDAQ: AMBA ) . More specifically, Ambarella is vital to GoPro's operations, as it makes semiconductors found in every single GoPro camera.
Key GoPro component
A quick glance through GoPro's prospectus shows that Ambarella is a vital contributor. Listed in the company's risk factors is, "We incorporate video compression and image processing semiconductors from one provider into all of our cameras." GoPro makes it known that there is no alternative supplier.
An upcoming GoPro IPO will put shares of Ambarella into the spotlight, which could be a great catalyst to boost shares that are currently down over 20% in the last year. In the last month, shares have risen 8%, but are down from their highs, seen around the time the prospectus was released.
The company helps companies with wearable sports cameras, automotive aftermarket cameras, and IP security cameras. Ambarella has seen some of its growth from sports cameras fall, as GoPro experienced declining sales in its most recent quarter.
Growth beyond GoPro
Ambarella is vital to GoPro and its cameras, but GoPro isn't as important to Ambarella and its financials. Lately, Ambarella has seen stronger growth in its IP security camera business. That growth could rocket further, with tech giant Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) (NASDAQ:GOOGL ) getting involved.
Reports indicate Google has been considering acquiring Dropcam, a maker of home security cameras. Dropcam also uses Ambarella for its cameras, which retail for approximately $150 each. The thought process is, Google wants Dropcam to integrate with its newly acquired Nest brand. Google spent $3.2 billion to acquire Nest, maker of smart thermostats and smoke detectors. It seems Google wants a bigger piece of the growing connected home market. Apple is also a possible acquirer of Dropcam.
An acquisition of Dropcam by a tech giant would be beneficial for Ambarella, as it would significantly boost sales. A deal would also further diversify Ambarella away from sports cameras and put it further ahead in the growing smart home security market. Dropcam streams footage of its cameras to phones or computers, and also includes an upgrade service with cloud capabilities.
Financials
Ambarella recently reported strong first-quarter earnings. The company saw revenue increase 21% to $40.9 million. Earnings per share rose to $0.25, up from $0.21 the prior year. Gross margins declined slightly due to lower sales of sports cameras. Management stated that results were driven by growth in the company's IP security camera business.
The strong first quarter follows a fourth-quarter report that saw revenue increase 26.8% to $40.0 million. In fiscal 2013, total revenue increased 30.2% to $157.6 million. Full-year gross margins increased, and full-year earnings per share grew to $0.85, up from $0.60 in the prior year.
Ambarella trades with no debt and over $140 million in cash, which isn't bad for a company with a market capitalization of $745 million. The company continues to see high short interest of around 17%, despite growing sales and strong insider ownership (47% owned by founder Nick Woodman and his wife, Jill).
Analysts predict Ambarella's revenue will grow 16% in fiscal 2015 and 23% in fiscal 2016. Earnings per share are also expected to grow to $1.17 and $1.47 per share in the next two years, respectively.
Conclusion
Shares of Ambarella have traded between $13-$36 over the last year. With the announcement of the GoPro IPO, shares have jumped to $26 and will likely carry momentum for the next couple of weeks.
With upcoming catalysts (GoPro's IPO and a possible Dropcam sale), Ambarella shares can easily return to one-year highs. The next few earnings releases should provide further double-digit revenue increases and send shares higher.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I have to say, and I hope to not jinx you, that you continue to do very well picking bottoms.
You asked about FEYE on 5/9
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FEYE&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p71560063412
And Yandex on 4/26
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=YNDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p03283023310
identikit
Footballguy
So I bought 500 shares @ $5.74 of CHTP a while back.
Finished today @ $6.56 so a decent 14% gain.
Now there's a tender offer out there for CHTP stock.
They're offering $6.44 a share plus a CVR of up to $1.50 per share based on future sales of their NORTHERA drug.
Her's some info:
http://investor.lundbeck.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=850302
Unsure of what I should do, being a novice at this sort of thing.
Have til 6/19/2014 to decide.
Gut tells me to hold, as a merger could be forthcoming.
Any advice you all could give me would be much appreciated.
ETA there's a $38 fee if I accept the tender.
Finished today @ $6.56 so a decent 14% gain.
Now there's a tender offer out there for CHTP stock.
They're offering $6.44 a share plus a CVR of up to $1.50 per share based on future sales of their NORTHERA drug.
Her's some info:
http://investor.lundbeck.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=850302
Unsure of what I should do, being a novice at this sort of thing.
Have til 6/19/2014 to decide.
Gut tells me to hold, as a merger could be forthcoming.
Any advice you all could give me would be much appreciated.
ETA there's a $38 fee if I accept the tender.
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Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
Do you mean a second offer from another company? As I read it,this tender is because the company has already agreed to be acquired by Lundbeck. Thx for heads up since this is in the stock contest.identikit said:
ETA from press release:
As announced on May 23, 2014, Lundbeck has commenced a tender offer (the "Offer") to purchase all of the outstanding shares of Chelsea for $6.44 per share in cash and one contingent value right that may pay up to an additional $1.50 per share upon achievement of certain net sales milestones, for a total potential consideration of up to $7.94 per share, or an aggregate of $658 million on a fully diluted basis.
As described in Chelsea' Solicitation/Recommendation Statement on Schedule 14D-9 (the "Statement") filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") and mailed to Chelsea's stockholders on May 23, 2014, Chelsea's Board of Directors has unanimously recommended that Chelsea's stockholders accept the Offer and tender their shares pursuant to the Offer. The initial expiration date of the Offer is at 12:00 midnight, New York City time, on June 20, 2014 (one minute after 11:59 p.m., New York City time, on June 20, 2014), subject to extension in certain circumstances as permitted under the Merger Agreement and applicable law.
Subject to Acquisition Sub's irrevocable acceptance for payment in the Offer of at least a majority of Chelsea's common stock outstanding on a fully diluted basis and to the satisfaction or waiver of certain other customary conditions, Acquisition Sub will merge with and into the Company (the "Merger") and, subject to certain exceptions, each Chelsea share not tendered in the Offer will be cancelled and converted into the right to receive in the Merger the same consideration per share paid in the Offer. The Merger will be effected as soon as practicable after the closing of the Offer
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Sarnoff
Footballguy
Been looking into this briefly as I'm considering dipping my toe into Google if it continues to slide, and not sure whether to buy GOOG or GOOGL stock.
GOOG is the Class C shares. They have no voting rights. GOOGL is the new name of the Class A shares with the normal voting rights.
As an individual investor, my vote won't matter at all anyway. The executive still own >60% of the voting power through their Class B shares (in which each share is also worth 10 votes to 1 vote of Class A).
However, the market overall seems to prefer the voting shares. GOOG is at 542 and GOOGL is at 551, and the spread may be widening. Now, there's a twist. On April 2 2015, one year after the split went into effect, Google has promised to "make up the difference" to their shareholders, giving GOOG owners either a cash payout or additional shares to bring the price back up to the GOOGL price. This is a one-time only payout.
So, you can buy GOOG today and be sure you'll eventually get the GOOGL price if it's still lower in the future. The unknowns are how that payout will happen, cash or more "lower valued" C shares, and whether the C stock would further dip immediately after the one-time-only payout. I could see it taking a bigger dip, losing the value of the payout, then getting hit with a short-term cap gain on top of that trying to convert to the more valuable A shares for a long-term hold.
identikit
Footballguy
I'm a real dummy when it comes to this sort of stuff.
Guess my question is the 6.44 per share + the hypothetical $1.50 per share of the tender offer a better deal than selling it. It's currently trading @ $ 6.55 right now. Is it conceivable that it goes higher?
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
You'r not being a dummy. This is more complicated than your average merger.I think the upside would come from the CVR, which is not something I am familiar with. I did find this persons take that might be of interest to you. If it were me, I would probably just sell for the simplicity of being done with the transaction.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2247633-chelsea-therapeutics-deal-terms-be-careful
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2247633-chelsea-therapeutics-deal-terms-be-careful
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identikit
Footballguy
Thanks for the article and the advice.
Decided to sell my 500 shares.
Would cost me $38 to accept the tender.
I'd rather put that to use instead of waiting on something that may never materialize.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Is anybody here particularly knowledgeable about Kinder Morgan? I'm... interested.
kevzilla
Footballguy
Not gonna identify as "knowledgeable," but here's what I know. There is a small but vocal cadre on the innnerwebs that thinks Richard Kinder is a crook. You will run across them in your research. I don't agree, but the structure of his companies is probably unnecessarily complicated. There are other MLPs that have recently bought out their general partners, and those are somewhat more comprehensible.
Having said that, I blessed my dad's purchase of KMP in 2010. It did OK, but it was owned in his IRA, which made it potentially disastrous. I convinced him to sell in 2011. About six weeks ago, he bought 200 shares for a taxable account. Obviously, the pipeline business is a good place to be for some time to come. GLLL
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
This is what I keep coming back to. And, man, has there been a #### ton of insider buying lately.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Anyone considering oil?
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Done. Like GM, I felt like I had to. I'm sure when this thing hits the 30s I'll lament it, but being unnecessarily uncomfortable with your position in one equity is dumb.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
S&P 2,000 looks almost imminent.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Congrats GM & Sac. I never buy the good recommendations. 
Mario Kart
Footballguy
The run up on metals is for what reason here? I'm fine with it but it makes me hold right now. Could have bought more and was looking to when 10oz bars were $198 a piece. Am sticking with what I have for now. Not sure if/when I'll buy again.
Outlooks? Thought? Vanguard ideas for metal index?
Outlooks? Thought? Vanguard ideas for metal index?
NIU Kicker
Footballguy
I have no idea. Right now in chalk it up to being the worst performer catching up to the rest of the market.
Arid Filch
Footballguy
Thanks for noticing. I have been enjoying YNDX but I never bought FEYE. I mentioned EBIX a couple weeks ago and bought at 13.00. It just dipped back to +10%. I think it is going to 17.00 or another +20% in the next 2 months.
Arid Filch
Footballguy
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Signed up for Go Pro IPO shares this week, as I'm sure many others did since they made a few available to the public. Not sure how many shares I'll get. IPO is on Wednesday, I believe.
Anybody else playing this?
Anybody else playing this?
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Thoughts on Fuel? Bottomed out 6 weeks ago at $19.31 and has been on a tear since... Sitting at $29 today.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/FUEL
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/FUEL
Acme CEO
Footballguy
I am still holding half of my FEYE and FUEL holdings after selling some during the runup. Nowhere near their peaks, but just enough to keep me above water after the recent drop.Arid Filch said:
The short attack is over for FEYE and FUEL and their high short interest will need to be covered. If the market doesn't have a major correction soon, then all those shorts will face margin calls and will be squeezed.
I believe both will continue to run up in the next few months while shorts cover. After, I will re balance FEYE to be a larger position while reducing FUEL. There is a lot of competition for AdTech and there are fundamental risks in the industry (eliminating cookies, control of their own ad inventory, etc.) FUEL, along with CRTO may be best in breed, but seem to be more acquisition targets for a company like Yahoo or Google than a long term buy and hold.
FEYE is a long term hold for me. Cyber security is every bit a national security issue today as it is a private sector concern. I predict more defense funding will transition towards cyber security from traditional weapons and defenses. Mandiant is already the favorite private sector consultant of several national security agencies and I can see them growing this business into something similar to a private defense contractor. I also like PANW for this reason, but Mandiant gives FEYE more advanced services that PANW cannot. But both are way ahead of and disrupting market share of legacy security sellers like Symantec and McCafee.
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Todem
Footballguy
Inflation fears abating. USD moved slightly lower, interest rates not moving nearly up as fast as people thought this year.
Metals rally.
I only use metals as an equity hedge. nor more than 2% in an average portfolio and for the most aggressive investors no more than 5-6%.
Recent history though saw the metals move north with the equity markets. It was unusual and a bubble sign...which of course crashed last year. I fully expect Metals to move like they should going forward. Bearish outlook for me personally, but some great long term opportunities with senior miners with low low valuations (Nemont Mining and Freeport to name a couple) and decent but highly volatile dividends.
Again use them to hedge. If you try to trade them....good luck.
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
DDD had a high volume and nice day today. I wonder what's up.
The Sniper
Footballguy
Why would it be disastrous to have KMP in an IRA? That's the perfect place for it in my opinion so you don't have to deal with the K-1?
kevzilla
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Nicely done. I think we have better days ahead too. Now....what to buy?
Bot some EXK today out of habit. Have made a fortune and lost same in this name since buying it at a buck and change in 2009. Will see. Open for ideas.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I bought into KMP and GOOGL, expecting the latter to be L-T hold. Considering the FEYE play, too. Their financials certainly look like they're ramping up.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Curious what's your thinking on GOOGL over GOOG if you see significant difference and do you not see long term potential with KMP?
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I plan on selling my GOOG after the one year anniversary and they do the price match. As I previously stated, I realize my voting rights are inconsequential but would rather have them than not.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Pretty much this.
I see long-term potential with KMP, but when I say L-T hold, what I really mean is that I'll likely tolerate more volatility in GOOGL than it. I have confidence in GOOGL long-term, so I'll give it more downside without selling and may hold past the point at which I'd sell a similar return on KMP. Though maybe not. I bought DDD expecting to hold it for a while, and I ended up flipping it very quickly. Stuff happens. There are expectations and then there is reality. Set the one and react to the other.
