Stock Thread (21 Viewers)

[Bob Sacamano]

The primary objectives of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is to ensure domestic price stability and foster a stable competitive market based financial system.

Seems like a solid investment.

 

[Sand]

The primary objectives of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is to ensure domestic price stability and foster a stable competitive market based financial system.

Seems like a solid investment.

Ha. Never seen that.

Just for the record CBI is Chicago bridge and iron. There are some articles out there about this one and Buffett gathering shares.

 

[fantasycurse42]

The primary objectives of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is to ensure domestic price stability and foster a stable competitive market based financial system.

Seems like a solid investment.

Ha. Never seen that. Just for the record CBI is Chicago bridge and iron. There are some articles out there about this one and Buffett gathering shares.

Read about that after you posted today and am intrigued.

 

[kevzilla]

My dad wants an infrastructure play, specifically Terex. I'm not as enthusiastic about the prospects for a worldwide economic recovery, but I told him that if the money was just burning a hole in his pocket, to go ahead. He has a remarkably long-term view for a guy who just turned 78.

 

[Sand]

The primary objectives of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is to ensure domestic price stability and foster a stable competitive market based financial system.

Seems like a solid investment.

Ha. Never seen that.Just for the record CBI is Chicago bridge and iron. There are some articles out there about this one and Buffett gathering shares.

Read about that after you posted today and am intrigued.

To be completely honest my due diligence consisted of realizing that Buffett bought a lot of this company after the "damaging article". And checking to see that my cost is right about the same as his. I figure that doing any more digging is kinda pointless - if WB is buying what due diligence could I possibly do better than him?

I also happen to like it because it is in an area I really don't own much of (energy/infrastructure). Only downside is a less than stellar dividend, but that is a relatively minor item.

 

[Sand]

On a roll. Bought a chunk of CBI today. Over the last couple months its has seen a big price drop due largely to some bad press which has been debunked (from what I've seen).

Most importantly Buffett, who has carried a position, dramatically increased it in Q2 at about the same price level I bought at today. I admit it, I'm a follower.

CBI up 6% in three days. I fully expect to get hit by lightning pretty soon here.

 

[BeTheMatch]

From online gaming, invisibility and uranium, I take you fellas to the world of ######l suppositories, courtesy of another Canadian small fry called BioSyent. It's one I own personally and it's a large holding of our funds. Terrific management with a high caliber CEO who makes himself accessible to us - something we look for in management as we tend to specialize in smaller companies that have room for growth. Currently not covered on the street and very under the radar, this is a company with a history of under promising and over delivering. Obviously, the stock has had a great run in the last year so if you are buying now you're buying at the top. Might be one to put on your watch list and add on dips.

Still laughing at the language filter here. What are we, 7? Come on....

Anyhow, this thinly traded Canadian pusher of VULVA (can we say vulva here?) suppositories and FeraMax (treats iron deficiency) is going to announce Q2 earnings next week, most likely on Thursday. Now, I don't know much about anything in life, but I know to trust my boss when I see him excited upon hanging up the phone with a CEO, which is what he was after talking to the CEO of Biosyent. His words: "This guy cannot WAIT to release his numbers".

Volume is miniscule, float is tiny, CEO is the largest shareholder. Guy loves to under promise and over deliver. I have a hunch that he is going to blow away the expectations. I've added a little bit personally and it continues to be a decent sized name in our portfolios.

As always, buyer beware, remember my lengthy list of stupidity here and do your own homework.

TORONTO, ONTARIO, Aug 21, 2014 (Marketwired via COMTEX) -- BioSyent Inc. ("BioSyent") (RX) released today a summary of its Second Quarter (Q2 2014) and first half (H1 2014) financial results for the three and six months ending June 30, 2014. Key highlights include:

--Q2 2014 Sales of $3,072,395 increased by 72% versus Q2 2013--First six months (H1 2014) Sales of $5,520,496 increased by 66% versusH1 2013--Q2 2014 Revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 68%over the corresponding quarters of the last three years--First six months (H1 2014) Revenue has grown at a compound annual growthrate (CAGR) of 70% over the corresponding 3 years period--Q2 2014 Pharmaceutical Sales of $2,893,162 were up 72% versus Q2 2013--H1 2014 Pharmaceutical Sales of $5,236,170 increased by 75% versus H12013--Nineteen consecutive quarters of continued pharmaceutical sales growth--Q2 2014 Net Income Before Tax of $1,219,855 increased by 125% versus Q22013--H1 2014 Net Income Before Tax of $1,907,527 increased by 86% versus$1,024,927 in H1 2013--Q2 2014 Net Income After Tax of $888,805 increased by 112% versus Q22013--H1 2014 Net Income After Tax of $1,400,226 increased by 84% versus H12013--Q2 2014 Diluted EPS of $0.06 versus $0.03 in Q2 2013--Trailing twelve months (TTM) fully diluted EPS of $0.18--The company remains debt-free and has an unutilized operating line ofcredit with Royal Bank of Canada--New Urgent Care product received Health Canada marketing approval in Q22014--Launched new Women's Health Product - RepaGyn(R) in Q2 2014--Pre-launch activity for a new Gastrointestinal Health product - launchplanned for fourth quarter of 2014--In July BioSyent in-licensed a third new Urgent Care Drug Product fromthe same European partner--Selected as a TSX Venture 50 Top Performer for three consecutive years -2012, 2013 and 2014--For the second consecutive year BioSyent named as one of Canada'sfastest growing companies in the Profit 500 rankings with a five yeargrowth rate of 608%Total sales for Q2 2014 of $3,072,395, were 72% higher compared to $1,786,684 in the corresponding prior year period. Total Sales for H1 2014 of $5,520,496 were 66% higher than H1 2013.

Pharmaceutical Sales in Q2 2014 increased by 72% from $1,683,793 in Q2 2013 to $2,893,162 in Q2 2014. Total Pharmaceutical Sales for H1 2014 of $5,236,170 were 75% higher than H1 2013.

Net Income Before Tax for Q2 2014 was $1,219,855, which was 125% higher than $542,964 in Q2 2013. Net Income Before Tax for H1 2014 was $1,907,527 or 86% higher than the corresponding prior year period.

Net Income After Tax increased by 112% from $418,325 in Q2 2013 to $888,805 in Q2 2014. Net Income After Tax for H1 2014 was $1,400,226 or 84% higher than the corresponding prior year period.

Basic & Dilluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) was $0.06 in Q2 2014 vs. $0.03 in Q2 2013. H1 2014 Basic EPS was $0.10 vs. $0.06 in H1 2013. Diluted EPS in H1 2014 was $0.10 vs. $0.05 in H1 2013.

Working capital, which is the difference between current assets and current liabilities, increased by 34% from $4,405,910 as at December 31, 2013 to $5,890,238 as at June 30, 2014. Total Cash included in working capital on June 30, 2014 is $4,830,796. Total Shareholder's Equity increased by 31% from $4,854,630 at December 31, 2013 to $6,337,976 at June 30, 2014.

The Company plans to launch a new Gastrointestinal product in the fourth quarter of 2014. The Company also received Health Canada approval on one of its two urgent care products and is planning to launch the product in late 2014 or early 2015.

On July 23, 2014 BioSyent Pharma in-licensed a third urgent care product from an existing European partner. This product will be launched after Health Canada approval.

The Company's Consolidated Financial Statements and Management's Discussion & Analysis will be posted on www.sedar.com on August 21, 2014.

For a direct market quote (15 minutes delay) for the TSX Venture Exchange and other Company financial information please visit www.tmxmoney.com.

BioSyent will also release a CEO presentation on the Second Quarter at the following link www.biosyent.com/q2-14/.

About BioSyent Inc.

Listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange under the trading symbol "RX", BioSyent is a profitable growth oriented specialty pharmaceutical company which searches the globe to in-license or acquire innovative pharmaceutical products that have been successfully developed, are safe and effective, and have a proven track record of improving the lives of patients and supporting the healthcare professionals that treat them.

Once a product of interest has been found, BioSyent then acquires the exclusive rights to the product and manages it through the Canadian governmental regulatory approval process. Once approved, BioSyent markets the product throughout Canada.

At the date of this press release the Company had 13,801,195 shares issued and outstanding.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/biosyent-releases-q2-and-six-month-results-q2-sales-increase-72-net-income-after-tax-up-112-2014-08-21-8173347

 

[General Malaise]

From online gaming, invisibility and uranium, I take you fellas to the world of ######l suppositories, courtesy of another Canadian small fry called BioSyent. It's one I own personally and it's a large holding of our funds. Terrific management with a high caliber CEO who makes himself accessible to us - something we look for in management as we tend to specialize in smaller companies that have room for growth. Currently not covered on the street and very under the radar, this is a company with a history of under promising and over delivering. Obviously, the stock has had a great run in the last year so if you are buying now you're buying at the top. Might be one to put on your watch list and add on dips.

Still laughing at the language filter here. What are we, 7? Come on....

Anyhow, this thinly traded Canadian pusher of VULVA (can we say vulva here?) suppositories and FeraMax (treats iron deficiency) is going to announce Q2 earnings next week, most likely on Thursday. Now, I don't know much about anything in life, but I know to trust my boss when I see him excited upon hanging up the phone with a CEO, which is what he was after talking to the CEO of Biosyent. His words: "This guy cannot WAIT to release his numbers".

Volume is miniscule, float is tiny, CEO is the largest shareholder. Guy loves to under promise and over deliver. I have a hunch that he is going to blow away the expectations. I've added a little bit personally and it continues to be a decent sized name in our portfolios.

As always, buyer beware, remember my lengthy list of stupidity here and do your own homework.

TORONTO, ONTARIO, Aug 21, 2014 (Marketwired via COMTEX) -- BioSyent Inc. ("BioSyent") (RX) released today a summary of its Second Quarter (Q2 2014) and first half (H1 2014) financial results for the three and six months ending June 30, 2014. Key highlights include:

--Q2 2014 Sales of $3,072,395 increased by 72% versus Q2 2013--First six months (H1 2014) Sales of $5,520,496 increased by 66% versusH1 2013--Q2 2014 Revenue has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 68%over the corresponding quarters of the last three years--First six months (H1 2014) Revenue has grown at a compound annual growthrate (CAGR) of 70% over the corresponding 3 years period--Q2 2014 Pharmaceutical Sales of $2,893,162 were up 72% versus Q2 2013--H1 2014 Pharmaceutical Sales of $5,236,170 increased by 75% versus H12013--Nineteen consecutive quarters of continued pharmaceutical sales growth--Q2 2014 Net Income Before Tax of $1,219,855 increased by 125% versus Q22013--H1 2014 Net Income Before Tax of $1,907,527 increased by 86% versus$1,024,927 in H1 2013--Q2 2014 Net Income After Tax of $888,805 increased by 112% versus Q22013--H1 2014 Net Income After Tax of $1,400,226 increased by 84% versus H12013--Q2 2014 Diluted EPS of $0.06 versus $0.03 in Q2 2013--Trailing twelve months (TTM) fully diluted EPS of $0.18--The company remains debt-free and has an unutilized operating line ofcredit with Royal Bank of Canada--New Urgent Care product received Health Canada marketing approval in Q22014--Launched new Women's Health Product - RepaGyn(R) in Q2 2014--Pre-launch activity for a new Gastrointestinal Health product - launchplanned for fourth quarter of 2014--In July BioSyent in-licensed a third new Urgent Care Drug Product fromthe same European partner--Selected as a TSX Venture 50 Top Performer for three consecutive years -2012, 2013 and 2014--For the second consecutive year BioSyent named as one of Canada'sfastest growing companies in the Profit 500 rankings with a five yeargrowth rate of 608%Total sales for Q2 2014 of $3,072,395, were 72% higher compared to $1,786,684 in the corresponding prior year period. Total Sales for H1 2014 of $5,520,496 were 66% higher than H1 2013.

Pharmaceutical Sales in Q2 2014 increased by 72% from $1,683,793 in Q2 2013 to $2,893,162 in Q2 2014. Total Pharmaceutical Sales for H1 2014 of $5,236,170 were 75% higher than H1 2013.

Net Income Before Tax for Q2 2014 was $1,219,855, which was 125% higher than $542,964 in Q2 2013. Net Income Before Tax for H1 2014 was $1,907,527 or 86% higher than the corresponding prior year period.

Net Income After Tax increased by 112% from $418,325 in Q2 2013 to $888,805 in Q2 2014. Net Income After Tax for H1 2014 was $1,400,226 or 84% higher than the corresponding prior year period.

Basic & Dilluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) was $0.06 in Q2 2014 vs. $0.03 in Q2 2013. H1 2014 Basic EPS was $0.10 vs. $0.06 in H1 2013. Diluted EPS in H1 2014 was $0.10 vs. $0.05 in H1 2013.

Working capital, which is the difference between current assets and current liabilities, increased by 34% from $4,405,910 as at December 31, 2013 to $5,890,238 as at June 30, 2014. Total Cash included in working capital on June 30, 2014 is $4,830,796. Total Shareholder's Equity increased by 31% from $4,854,630 at December 31, 2013 to $6,337,976 at June 30, 2014.

The Company plans to launch a new Gastrointestinal product in the fourth quarter of 2014. The Company also received Health Canada approval on one of its two urgent care products and is planning to launch the product in late 2014 or early 2015.

On July 23, 2014 BioSyent Pharma in-licensed a third urgent care product from an existing European partner. This product will be launched after Health Canada approval.

The Company's Consolidated Financial Statements and Management's Discussion & Analysis will be posted on www.sedar.com on August 21, 2014.

For a direct market quote (15 minutes delay) for the TSX Venture Exchange and other Company financial information please visit www.tmxmoney.com.

BioSyent will also release a CEO presentation on the Second Quarter at the following link www.biosyent.com/q2-14/.

About BioSyent Inc.

Listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange under the trading symbol "RX", BioSyent is a profitable growth oriented specialty pharmaceutical company which searches the globe to in-license or acquire innovative pharmaceutical products that have been successfully developed, are safe and effective, and have a proven track record of improving the lives of patients and supporting the healthcare professionals that treat them.

Once a product of interest has been found, BioSyent then acquires the exclusive rights to the product and manages it through the Canadian governmental regulatory approval process. Once approved, BioSyent markets the product throughout Canada.

At the date of this press release the Company had 13,801,195 shares issued and outstanding.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/biosyent-releases-q2-and-six-month-results-q2-sales-increase-72-net-income-after-tax-up-112-2014-08-21-8173347

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Uranium and invisibility, check. Gambling and vag fillers, nine.

 

[General Malaise]

Uranium and invisibility, check. Gambling and vag fillers, nine.

Damn, man. I feel bad about this. :(

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Uranium and invisibility, check. Gambling and vag fillers, nine.

Damn, man. I feel bad about this. :(

Don't GB, I'm a big boy. Just wish I would have put a little in the your whole basket of recommendations. That stupid tsunami ruined many more lives than the measly amount of money I have in uranium.

 

[Drifter]

I am looking at Li & Fung on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKG:494 ~10HK$). They released some wishy washy earning yesterday and lost about 5% but are still up about 15% on the year based on a strong acquisition of ocean containers earlier this year. They blamed their earnings on uncertainty from US Retails on 4Q orders, not saying that they were bad but that the retailers weren't committing yet. This is similar to what happened in 2012.

The dip seems a good opportunity for an entry into a long hold for Li & Fung who seem to be doing all the right things and might be a home run for a shorter term buy if you want to wager on a strong retail Q4.

 

[Drifter]

For those of you not in Supply Chain and not knowing who Li & Fung is - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_%26_Fung

Some questions I have. I have not traded a Hong Kong stock before. I've found Li & Fung as an OTC Pink stock trading at ~$2.53 right now. I know OTC Pink is not ideal but it is a "Current Information" stock so the reporting is there. I'm unsure as to why a stock trading at $10 HKD trades at $2.53 OTC since that does not match the conversion rate. Anyone with insights there?

My interest is definitely piqued based on my knowledge of Li & Fung and some discussion with some veteran Supply Chain folks around here. Not looking at any major plays here but I think it's something I want to have a little piece of.

 

[Drifter]

In addition to LFUGY currently watching

COST (121.29) - Long term bet on their expansion being successful. I'd like them to repeat past history and have a bit more a decline off of testing their all time highs and get in between $115-$118. I'm just not sure that's going to happen.

SWFT (21.35) - As previously stated I think there's value here but think it will continue to be here up until their Q3 earnings. Might rebuy some here and more later

WFT (Manufacturer of drilling equipment) (22.47) - Energy play. Late to the game but betting on ongoing strength. Haven't decided if I want to enter now or wait.

RYL (New Homes) (37.05) - Also a bit late to the game off of recovery from recent lows but with a bit of room left to long term averages. Probably enter this one sooner rather than later with new home sales doing so well.

One other - JBHT (75.83) is trading below its 200 day moving average and probably has some value with a small 5-10% potential upside with very little risk.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Some questions I have. I have not traded a Hong Kong stock before. I've found Li & Fung as an OTC Pink stock trading at ~$2.53 right now. I know OTC Pink is not ideal but it is a "Current Information" stock so the reporting is there. I'm unsure as to why a stock trading at $10 HKD trades at $2.53 OTC since that does not match the conversion rate. Anyone with insights there?

Check the details of the ADR. One ADR could be worth two+ shares. Also,FWIW, the ADRs I've seen on OTC are pretty low volume, so you may have an issue with liquidity.

 

[fantasycurse42]

2000 SNP?

I think at 2000 I rebalance all my indexes as I'll be way overweighted to stocks.

Touched it today... Still might close there, we'll see in 15 minutes.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Anyone else in on the sector rotation? ADRE is up 8.5% in the last 7 weeks. Guessing it'll remain the top sector for September, but with the big 2 month gain, I almost want to take some profit here.

Siff, you ever do this, or the strategy is set as is to avoid making these decisions?

 

[fantasycurse42]

Anyone else in on the sector rotation? ADRE is up 8.5% in the last 7 weeks. Guessing it'll remain the top sector for September, but with the big 2 month gain, I almost want to take some profit here.

Siff, you ever do this, or the strategy is set as is to avoid making these decisions?

Anyone

 

[siffoin]

Anyone else in on the sector rotation? ADRE is up 8.5% in the last 7 weeks. Guessing it'll remain the top sector for September, but with the big 2 month gain, I almost want to take some profit here.

Siff, you ever do this, or the strategy is set as is to avoid making these decisions?

So we have a more than decade long record of how this strategy performs IF followed. Since its difficult for me to know how any of the 6 sectors will perform against the others in the future...if yu want to achieve the results you just have to follow as is. Of course when the strategy rotates into another sector that will mean the current selection underperformed for that month. So its possible IF ADRE remains the top pick for Sept and the strategy rotates to one of the other 5 sectors for Oct (out of ADRE)...then ADRE will have underperformed during the Sept month, and taking profits now will have been a good idea.With that said, in early Aug I would have never thought we'd see ADRE move up like it has. Thus it is hard to predict the future.

The monthly sector rotation strategy is a simple strategy with outstanding long term results. And for such a simple strategy I think you have to understand that not every month I will be a winner and not every rotation will occur at the high.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Anyone else in on the sector rotation? ADRE is up 8.5% in the last 7 weeks. Guessing it'll remain the top sector for September, but with the big 2 month gain, I almost want to take some profit here.

Siff, you ever do this, or the strategy is set as is to avoid making these decisions?

So we have a more than decade long record of how this strategy performs IF followed. Since its difficult for me to know how any of the 6 sectors will perform against the others in the future...if yu want to achieve the results you just have to follow as is. Of course when the strategy rotates into another sector that will mean the current selection underperformed for that month. So its possible IF ADRE remains the top pick for Sept and the strategy rotates to one of the other 5 sectors for Oct (out of ADRE)...then ADRE will have underperformed during the Sept month, and taking profits now will have been a good idea.

With that said, in early Aug I would have never thought we'd see ADRE move up like it has. Thus it is hard to predict the future.

The monthly sector rotation strategy is a simple strategy with outstanding long term results. And for such a simple strategy I think you have to understand that not ever month I will be a winner and not ever rotation will occur at the high.

Thanks Siff... I've only followed along on the strategy for 5 months now. Kinda figured with a decade of data, it should just be followed along as is...

I'm just shocked that it has gained almost 10 percent in 7 weeks, just awesome

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Anyone else in on the sector rotation? ADRE is up 8.5% in the last 7 weeks. Guessing it'll remain the top sector for September, but with the big 2 month gain, I almost want to take some profit here.

Siff, you ever do this, or the strategy is set as is to avoid making these decisions?

Anyone

I actually jumped on board with the IVV rotation back in June. Liking it ETA- siff, one thing I was curious about with this strategy though. Seems to me where it's most valuable is in bear markets/recessions. For example, IIRC, the 10-year history showed a break even or even a slight profit in late 2008-09 when everyone in equities lost their shirt for 6 months. If all 6 sectors, including bonds, look bearish, why is there no option to rotate into cash for a month? I realize that would be an extreme circumstance, but certainly not an impossible one over a long enough timeframe.

 

[siffoin]

Anyone else in on the sector rotation? ADRE is up 8.5% in the last 7 weeks. Guessing it'll remain the top sector for September, but with the big 2 month gain, I almost want to take some profit here.

Siff, you ever do this, or the strategy is set as is to avoid making these decisions?

Anyone

I actually jumped on board with the IVV rotation back in June. Liking it ETA- siff, one thing I was curious about with this strategy though. Seems to me where it's most valuable is in bear markets/recessions. For example, IIRC, the 10-year history showed a break even or even a slight profit in late 2008-09 when everyone in equities lost their shirt for 6 months. If all 6 sectors, including bonds, look bearish, why is there no option to rotate into cash for a month? I realize that would be an extreme circumstance, but certainly not an impossible one over a long enough timeframe.

I would like to give your question the thought and consideration it deserves. Unfortunately I'm not in a place where I can do that for a few days. Let's come bac next week because I think I've discussed this topic in the past. And it is a good one.

 

[siffoin]

Anyone else in on the sector rotation? ADRE is up 8.5% in the last 7 weeks. Guessing it'll remain the top sector for September, but with the big 2 month gain, I almost want to take some profit here.

Siff, you ever do this, or the strategy is set as is to avoid making these decisions?

Anyone

I actually jumped on board with the IVV rotation back in June. Liking it ETA- siff, one thing I was curious about with this strategy though. Seems to me where it's most valuable is in bear markets/recessions. For example, IIRC, the 10-year history showed a break even or even a slight profit in late 2008-09 when everyone in equities lost their shirt for 6 months. If all 6 sectors, including bonds, look bearish, why is there no option to rotate into cash for a month? I realize that would be an extreme circumstance, but certainly not an impossible one over a long enough timeframe.

I would like to give your question the thought and consideration it deserves. Unfortunately I'm not in a place where I can do that for a few days. Let's come bac next week because I think I've discussed this topic in the past. And it is a good one.

The idea for the SH Monthly Sector Rotation came from examining the American Association of Individual Investors concept for a "diversified" portfolio. AAII suggests investors diversify into US Lrg Cap; Mid Cap; Small Cap; Intl Equity; Emerging Mkts and Bonds at varying % levels depending on risk tolerance/age. There is never a time in one's life in the AAII Portfolio where one moves to cash.

This study was done to explore how a portfolio would perform against a benchmark of the $SPY IF we were invested 100% into the STRONGEST performing sector- and re-examined/rotated on a monthly basis. (Note: I did studies that looked at rotation frequencies on weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi-annually and annual basis too - with the Monthly rotation "winning" by a significant percentage). The results back-tested to 2002 are located on my web page- and are impressive.

I'm not suggesting this is the end-all/be-all stock investing strategy. It's just a simple strategy that I think is logical and practical- Investing in the strongest performing sector (out of the AAII 6) and re-examining/balancing on a monthly basis. It's not a strategy that takes a lot of work and is one that is not over-trading within the portfolio (though some may differ of the definition of over-trading - typically the SH Top Sector Rotation makes between 3-6 trades per year). IMO- worst case for this strategy is that is slightly under-performs the benchmark (SPY) at times when the market is wildly bullish - as in the case of 2012-2013 where the strategy under-performed the SPY by -3.3% and -4.1% (but still gained an impressive 12.7% and 28.2% during '12-'13). On average the strategy out-performs the SPY by about +15% annually..and is beating the SPY by about 5% in 2014.

The strategy is what it is. In bear markets it will lean into Bonds as the "safe" haven, and perhaps most impressive of all- it has NEVER had a losing year (even 2008 it gained 12%). It has a 12 year annual compounded growth rate just north of 25%. Of course past results are no guarantee of future performance.

For a while, I thought I would post the Top Sector for people interested- it looks like a couple of you are and have had positive gains. If others were to follow - I would strongly suggest waiting until the strategy rotates into the NEXT sector as the current top sector $ADRE has been the top pick for a few months- ie you need to wait at least until the October pick.

The SH Top Sector Rotation Strategy is just one tool in the investing tool box I personally use. I like the simplicity of the strategy and the longer I use it, the longer I wish I had used it in the past. I don't see any need to tweak it.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Great explanation, thanks a lot!

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I've had an itchy trigger finger in regards to FAZ & TZA.

 

[Drifter]

So, with the analysis of the rotation strategy performance, is it based on IF you had properly recognized what the strongest sector was (recognized retroactively) on a month to month basis (hindsight is 20/20) or is it based on what a decision would have been based on analysis done at the time?

 

[siffoin]

So, with the analysis of the rotation strategy performance, is it based on IF you had properly recognized what the strongest sector was (recognized retroactively) on a month to month basis (hindsight is 20/20) or is it based on what a decision would have been based on analysis done at the time?

It's a good question as most "backtests" cherry pick the results from past data, based upon how technical indicators realign (hindsight 20/20). And one reason why fancy black-box stock trading systems under-perform. Though I'm a technical trader, I'm a trend trader and my focus is always based around whether price is in general moving up (bullish) or down (bearish) given a specific timeframe.

The SH Top Sector Rotation strategy is pretty simple in that the selection criteria is based primarily upon PRICE. So price performance is compared against each of the 6 sectors to select the top performing sector each month. There are are couple of other lessor criteria too, but quite simply $ADRE is the top Sector for July, Aug, Sept because it has outperformed price %-wise the other 5 sectors.

Because selection is based upon price performance, I'm 100% confident that the backtest from (example) Sept 2005 is the same today as if we had traded it live back then because price on a given date in the past is what the price was on that date in the past.

It's impossible for to say that this strategy will yield similar results over the next decade. I don't know the future. I'm also not suggesting anyone follow along - I'm just presenting the results of my work and people can take it or leave it. But at the same time because I do recognize that some are following along, I feel a duty to provide them with updates.

 

[culdeus]

siffon, remind me your websites and twitters. tia

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Thanks for your response siff. I love the logic behind the strategy.

 

[sbonomo]

siffon, remind me your websites and twitters. tia

his sig, steelhedge.com. Twitter is linked there and is a feed on the side. Pretty sure the twitters is also steelhedge.

Siff, always appreciate your insight.

x2 -

 

[Drifter]

So, with the analysis of the rotation strategy performance, is it based on IF you had properly recognized what the strongest sector was (recognized retroactively) on a month to month basis (hindsight is 20/20) or is it based on what a decision would have been based on analysis done at the time?

It's a good question as most "backtests" cherry pick the results from past data, based upon how technical indicators realign (hindsight 20/20). And one reason why fancy black-box stock trading systems under-perform. Though I'm a technical trader, I'm a trend trader and my focus is always based around whether price is in general moving up (bullish) or down (bearish) given a specific timeframe.

The SH Top Sector Rotation strategy is pretty simple in that the selection criteria is based primarily upon PRICE. So price performance is compared against each of the 6 sectors to select the top performing sector each month. There are are couple of other lessor criteria too, but quite simply $ADRE is the top Sector for July, Aug, Sept because it has outperformed price %-wise the other 5 sectors.

Because selection is based upon price performance, I'm 100% confident that the backtest from (example) Sept 2005 is the same today as if we had traded it live back then because price on a given date in the past is what the price was on that date in the past.

It's impossible for to say that this strategy will yield similar results over the next decade. I don't know the future. I'm also not suggesting anyone follow along - I'm just presenting the results of my work and people can take it or leave it. But at the same time because I do recognize that some are following along, I feel a duty to provide them with updates.

Looking at your website, please tell me if I'm understanding your analysis.

1. Identify ETFs for each of the sectors you outlined,

2. Assume a hypothetical $10k investment in each at the beginning of the monitoring period (1 month for example)

3. Track the value of that investment over that month. Highest grossing sector "wins".

Is there any forward looking component or is the next month's target always the previous month's winner?

Looking closer that does not seem correct. Your main Sector Rotation - Monthly page is only showing results and not breaking down your analysis for your sector choice.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I bought into KMP and GOOGL, expecting the latter to be L-T hold. Considering the FEYE play, too. Their financials certainly look like they're ramping up.

Curious what's your thinking on GOOGL over GOOG if you see significant difference and do you not see long term potential with KMP?

As I previously stated, I realize my voting rights are inconsequential but would rather have them than not.

Pretty much this.

I see long-term potential with KMP, but when I say L-T hold, what I really mean is that I'll likely tolerate more volatility in GOOGL than it. I have confidence in GOOGL long-term, so I'll give it more downside without selling and may hold past the point at which I'd sell a similar return on KMP. Though maybe not. I bought DDD expecting to hold it for a while, and I ended up flipping it very quickly. Stuff happens. There are expectations and then there is reality. Set the one and react to the other.

So, I'm pretty much at this point. I'm considering that quick an 18% on KMP a pretty good return. This thing going to park over $100 with the consolidation news? Seems like more accounting than any true significant value being added. What am I missing that might say to hold onto this?

I hold a bunch of KMP - sitting on a double now with that pop (+ dividends, which are great here). I don't think you're missing out on much if you want a quick profit. With the dividend and the dividend growth going forward (10% a year for a while) I don't see any reason to divest.

Only downside to all this is that the consolidation will be a significant tax event and will likely eat heavily into that 18%.

Yeah, I'm out.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

GM, you viewing Vagstock as a L-T thing?

 

[General Malaise]

GM, you viewing Vagstock as a L-T thing?

Yes. Big fan of this one. CEO very level headed and satisfied to grow slowly. Also think research coverage is imminent as it has largely been ignored by analysts. Increased exposure with ratings and price targets could catapult this one into the arms of institutional investors and big hedge funds who probably don't even know about its existence right now.

 

[fantasycurse42]

GM, you viewing Vagstock as a L-T thing?

Yes. Big fan of this one. CEO very level headed and satisfied to grow slowly. Also think research coverage is imminent as it has largely been ignored by analysts. Increased exposure with ratings and price targets could catapult this one into the arms of institutional investors and big hedge funds who probably don't even know about its existence right now.

What's this now? Can I get a symbol? Traded on American exchange?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

https://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BIOYF

 

[fantasycurse42]

https://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BIOYF

JFC, this is up 400% in the last year... Gotta do some HW.

GM, how long have you been following/invested here?

 

[St. Louis Bob]

GM, you viewing Vagstock as a L-T thing?

Yes. Big fan of this one. CEO very level headed and satisfied to grow slowly. Also think research coverage is imminent as it has largely been ignored by analysts. Increased exposure with ratings and price targets could catapult this one into the arms of institutional investors and big hedge funds who probably don't even know about its existence right now.

I racked up $450 in dividend the last couple of months so I just bougt 100 shares at $8.38. YOU'VE BEEN WARNED!!!

 

[General Malaise]

https://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BIOYF

JFC, this is up 400% in the last year... Gotta do some HW.

GM, how long have you been following/invested here?

As a firm, we've been following for a year and change, investors for about the same period of time. I didn't buy shares until early June, so didn't enjoy the huge run up, but ain't complaining. I'm also adding to my position personally on weakness, so long as our funds are not involved that same trading day for compliance reasons.

For the technical analyst lovers in all of us...

 

[General Malaise]

GM, you viewing Vagstock as a L-T thing?

Yes. Big fan of this one. CEO very level headed and satisfied to grow slowly. Also think research coverage is imminent as it has largely been ignored by analysts. Increased exposure with ratings and price targets could catapult this one into the arms of institutional investors and big hedge funds who probably don't even know about its existence right now.

I racked up $450 in dividend the last couple of months so I just bougt 100 shares at $8.38. YOU'VE BEEN WARNED!!!

We got this.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

GM, you viewing Vagstock as a L-T thing?

Yes. Big fan of this one. CEO very level headed and satisfied to grow slowly. Also think research coverage is imminent as it has largely been ignored by analysts. Increased exposure with ratings and price targets could catapult this one into the arms of institutional investors and big hedge funds who probably don't even know about its existence right now.

I racked up $450 in dividend the last couple of months so I just bougt 100 shares at $8.38. YOU'VE BEEN WARNED!!!

http://cdn.gifbay.com/2013/01/now_counting_3_failed_attemptsand_im_out-28225.gif

 

[siffoin]

So, with the analysis of the rotation strategy performance, is it based on IF you had properly recognized what the strongest sector was (recognized retroactively) on a month to month basis (hindsight is 20/20) or is it based on what a decision would have been based on analysis done at the time?

It's a good question as most "backtests" cherry pick the results from past data, based upon how technical indicators realign (hindsight 20/20). And one reason why fancy black-box stock trading systems under-perform. Though I'm a technical trader, I'm a trend trader and my focus is always based around whether price is in general moving up (bullish) or down (bearish) given a specific timeframe.

The SH Top Sector Rotation strategy is pretty simple in that the selection criteria is based primarily upon PRICE. So price performance is compared against each of the 6 sectors to select the top performing sector each month. There are are couple of other lessor criteria too, but quite simply $ADRE is the top Sector for July, Aug, Sept because it has outperformed price %-wise the other 5 sectors.

Because selection is based upon price performance, I'm 100% confident that the backtest from (example) Sept 2005 is the same today as if we had traded it live back then because price on a given date in the past is what the price was on that date in the past.

It's impossible for to say that this strategy will yield similar results over the next decade. I don't know the future. I'm also not suggesting anyone follow along - I'm just presenting the results of my work and people can take it or leave it. But at the same time because I do recognize that some are following along, I feel a duty to provide them with updates.

Looking at your website, please tell me if I'm understanding your analysis.

1. Identify ETFs for each of the sectors you outlined,

There are ONLY 6 ETFs in consideration each month - ADRE; EFA; IEF; IJH; IJR; IVV

2. Assume a hypothetical $10k investment in each at the beginning of the monitoring period (1 month for example)

Yes. At the beginning of the monitoring period. But the strategy invests 100% into the top sector so gains from the initial $10k are added into subsequent months. I'm not a believer in buy and hold philosophy so the comparison is bench-marked to a buy and hold of the SPY over time. The lead this has over the $SPY is so great that any positive monthly performance will far outperform the bench-mark's to the point it's silly to focus on that.

3. Track the value of that investment over that month. Highest grossing sector "wins".

You can't go back and cherry pick the top ETF. Once selected the results are what they are. $ADRE is the pick for September. If we come to the end of September only to discoverer that for example $IVV was the top performing ETF for the month, I can't go back and say "the strategy really invested in $IVV on 8/29". ADRE is the pick - good or bad - time will tell- we're long $ADRE. Sometimes the pick is the top performer but other times it isn't which is what necessitates a rotation. There is a formula to how the ETFs get ranked...the most important being price % performance over a given time period (though that time period isn't 100% comprised solely from the past 30 days). In addition, that is not the only factor considered. In the same way that flour might be the heaviest weighted ingredient in a chocolate chip cookie recipe - flour alone doesn't make a chocolate chip cookie. A strategy based 100% on ranking the 6 ETFs on price performance over the past 1 month time period would still far out perform the buy and hold of the $SPY and is something anyone can do on their own without any assistance from me. It would still under-perform this strategy- significantly.

Is there any forward looking component or is the next month's target always the previous month's winner?

I don't know how to tell the future with 100% certainty- but I'm working on it.

Looking closer that does not seem correct. Your main Sector Rotation - Monthly page is only showing results and not breaking down your analysis for your sector choice.

You've lost me here.

Let me futher expound:

There are 6 ETFs that get examined/ranked. The "ranking" can be done anytime - but for this particular strategy the ranking takes place on the last trading day of the month. The ranking system is not forward or backward looking. The ranking is in the present. Meaning - on the last trading day of the month the ETFs will be ranked from 1-6. From that, the #1 ranked ETF is then purchased near the close of that day and held at a minimum for 1 trading month - when the ETFs are once again ranked.

No one - and certainly not me- knows the future. And this strategy is no guarantee that once selected the #1 ranked ETF will outperform all of the other 5 over the following month. In fact, a rotation means that the #1 ranked ETF at the beginning of a month did not maintain the #1 ranking by the end of the month - thus the rotation.

The general idea behind the strategy is to be invested in the strongest performing sector and by doing so beat the $SPY. It does so about 80% of the time on an annual basis.

I'm quite confident that the back-tested picks are accurate. At the same time, my real concern is how this trades live. I've participated in the strategy for about 1 year and and posted the "pick" here or on twitter (most times both places) in real time every single month since. There is nothing I do in the FFA to sell or promote, but of all the types of trades I do, this is one that would be "available" to everyone. Because of that, I thought others might find an interest in these results too. I think around 3-5 people in the FFA are playing along - and I'm pretty comfortable with that number. I'm willing to share the results each month - but I don't feel obligated to share the exact "recipe" on how I get those results. I hope people would understand that trading is my profession, and I have a need to keep my work mine. I give a lot of thought and consideration as to what I post in public places - because I don't want people to lose $. I do post many many trades in real time and let the results speak for themselves. I've repeatedly stated that a strategy like this isn't for everyone.

 

[saintfool]

how are folks here approaching Alibaba IPO next week? I'm looking at a mix of ETF and BABA shares. i'm curious to hear how others are looking at this.

 

[Al Czervik]

GM, you viewing Vagstock as a L-T thing?

Yes. Big fan of this one. CEO very level headed and satisfied to grow slowly. Also think research coverage is imminent as it has largely been ignored by analysts. Increased exposure with ratings and price targets could catapult this one into the arms of institutional investors and big hedge funds who probably don't even know about its existence right now.

I racked up $450 in dividend the last couple of months so I just bougt 100 shares at $8.38. YOU'VE BEEN WARNED!!!

We got this.

Went to buy some vag stock and got this message:

"Execution of this trade may incur a higher settlement fee in addition to the regular commission. This fee is often $150, however it can be higher in certain situations. Please be aware of this charge prior to placing this order."

 

[Mystery Achiever]

how are folks here approaching Alibaba IPO next week? I'm looking at a mix of ETF and BABA shares. i'm curious to hear how others are looking at this.

I am exposed via SFTBY, which owns about 37%. It is rebounding some now since it dropped on abandoning S/TMUS merger attempt.

 

[siffoin]

how are folks here approaching Alibaba IPO next week? I'm looking at a mix of ETF and BABA shares. i'm curious to hear how others are looking at this.

I am exposed via SFTBY, which owns about 37%. It is rebounding some now since it dropped on abandoning S/TMUS merger attempt.

Me too.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I think around 3-5 people in the FFA are playing along

I know I am, George Jefferson Airplane mentioned he was too, and I believe Sarnoff said he was in as well. Not sure if anyone else is.

I've been in since May, this is my 5th month. After all of the explanations in this thread, it makes a ton of sense to me.

I'll be sending a Christmas package over to Steelhedge this year

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

ADRE! Nice move today

 

[Bob Sacamano]

GM, you viewing Vagstock as a L-T thing?

Yes. Big fan of this one. CEO very level headed and satisfied to grow slowly. Also think research coverage is imminent as it has largely been ignored by analysts. Increased exposure with ratings and price targets could catapult this one into the arms of institutional investors and big hedge funds who probably don't even know about its existence right now.

I racked up $450 in dividend the last couple of months so I just bougt 100 shares at $8.38. YOU'VE BEEN WARNED!!!

We got this.

Went to buy some vag stock and got this message:

"Execution of this trade may incur a higher settlement fee in addition to the regular commission. This fee is often $150, however it can be higher in certain situations. Please be aware of this charge prior to placing this order."

Cost me $7.95.

 

[Al Czervik]

ADRE! Nice move today

Tried to get some yesterday and it never filled.

Will look to grab some today.