Stock Thread (20 Viewers)

[siffoin]

ADRE! Nice move today

Tried to get some yesterday and it never filled.

Will look to grab some today.

If you are buying based on the SH Top Sector Strategy - please don't purchase $ADRE at this time. The buy level was at the end of June. To BEST participate in the strategy, you want to WAIT until there is a rotation into a new Top Sector.

There is no need to rush into this strategy.

 

[Al Czervik]

ADRE! Nice move today

Tried to get some yesterday and it never filled.

Will look to grab some today.

If you are buying based on the SH Top Sector Strategy - please don't purchase $ADRE at this time. The buy level was at the end of June. To BEST participate in the strategy, you want to WAIT until there is a rotation into a new Top Sector.

There is no need to rush into this strategy.

Interesting. OK, I'll wait. Thought getting in on the bull trend of any month would be ok. But better at the beginning of a bull than the end.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

ADRE! Nice move today

Tried to get some yesterday and it never filled.

Will look to grab some today.

If you are buying based on the SH Top Sector Strategy - please don't purchase $ADRE at this time. The buy level was at the end of June. To BEST participate in the strategy, you want to WAIT until there is a rotation into a new Top Sector.

There is no need to rush into this strategy.

Interesting. OK, I'll wait. Thought getting in on the bull trend of any month would be ok. But better at the beginning momentum building early stages but likely NOT the beginning of a bull than the end. [/siff]

 

[siffoin]

ADRE! Nice move today

Tried to get some yesterday and it never filled.

Will look to grab some today.

If you are buying based on the SH Top Sector Strategy - please don't purchase $ADRE at this time. The buy level was at the end of June. To BEST participate in the strategy, you want to WAIT until there is a rotation into a new Top Sector.

There is no need to rush into this strategy.

Interesting. OK, I'll wait. Thought getting in on the bull trend of any month would be ok. But better at the beginning of a bull than the end.

There's also a small but noticeable bump that sometimes happens on the 1st of the month that we want to take advantage of as well.

This is true. I've looked at results based on buying:

1) On the close of the last day of the month

2) On the open of the first day of the month

3) On the close of the first day of the month

Buying on the close of the last day of the month makes a pretty big positive difference vs buying the close of the first day of the month.

Buying on the close of the last day of the month slightly outperforms buying the open on the first day of the month.

I'm guessing, gap ups are more frequent than gap downs on the first trading day of the month and is probably the reason for the differences. Of course buying the close of the last day of the month guarantees full participation in the gap up. Real life trading would be tough to buy the true open especially in a gap up scenario.

I'm glad there is interest in this - but please follow the rules or ask me personally on questions before acting. The goal here is to have a systematic, unemotional investment strategy that consistently beats the $SPY. And better to be set up correctly from the get-go.

 

[General Malaise]

GM, you viewing Vagstock as a L-T thing?

Yes. Big fan of this one. CEO very level headed and satisfied to grow slowly. Also think research coverage is imminent as it has largely been ignored by analysts. Increased exposure with ratings and price targets could catapult this one into the arms of institutional investors and big hedge funds who probably don't even know about its existence right now.

I racked up $450 in dividend the last couple of months so I just bougt 100 shares at $8.38. YOU'VE BEEN WARNED!!!

We got this.

Went to buy some vag stock and got this message:

"Execution of this trade may incur a higher settlement fee in addition to the regular commission. This fee is often $150, however it can be higher in certain situations. Please be aware of this charge prior to placing this order."

Cost me $7.95.

Wonder who he is using. Canadian stocks can be a little tricky for certain retail brokers. All the BioSyent I have is through Schwab, who is exceptional, IMO. I use Ameritrade too, but by and large, I prefer Schwab.

 

[sbonomo]

ADRE! Nice move today

Tried to get some yesterday and it never filled.

Will look to grab some today.

If you are buying based on the SH Top Sector Strategy - please don't purchase $ADRE at this time. The buy level was at the end of June. To BEST participate in the strategy, you want to WAIT until there is a rotation into a new Top Sector.

There is no need to rush into this strategy.

I am hoping that Oct is a new sector so that i can get in. I am looking at this as a 6-12 month trial to take emotion out of it....thanks Siff!

 

[Al Czervik]

GM, you viewing Vagstock as a L-T thing?

Yes. Big fan of this one. CEO very level headed and satisfied to grow slowly. Also think research coverage is imminent as it has largely been ignored by analysts. Increased exposure with ratings and price targets could catapult this one into the arms of institutional investors and big hedge funds who probably don't even know about its existence right now.

I racked up $450 in dividend the last couple of months so I just bougt 100 shares at $8.38. YOU'VE BEEN WARNED!!!

We got this.

Went to buy some vag stock and got this message:

"Execution of this trade may incur a higher settlement fee in addition to the regular commission. This fee is often $150, however it can be higher in certain situations. Please be aware of this charge prior to placing this order."

Cost me $7.95.

Wonder who he is using. Canadian stocks can be a little tricky for certain retail brokers. All the BioSyent I have is through Schwab, who is exceptional, IMO. I use Ameritrade too, but by and large, I prefer Schwab.

Tradeking

 

[Drifter]

Another question for Siff on the sector rotation -

How did you methodology work last January? Did it accurate predict that bonds were the correct place to be for the month of January or did it err on the side of the Small Caps, Mid Caps or Intl sectors being the play (which would have been a better play from a Dec-Feb timeframe)?

Also, to clarify, I'm not knocking it, I'm just trying to understand it better - both it's apparent strengths as well as where it might be very good but perhaps still sub-optimal (which pretty much everything is - it's just the degree of sub-optimal that differs).

 

[siffoin]

Another question for Siff on the sector rotation -

How did you methodology work last January? Did it accurate predict that bonds were the correct place to be for the month of January or did it err on the side of the Small Caps, Mid Caps or Intl sectors being the play (which would have been a better play from a Dec-Feb timeframe)?

Also, to clarify, I'm not knocking it, I'm just trying to understand it better - both it's apparent strengths as well as where it might be very good but perhaps still sub-optimal (which pretty much everything is - it's just the degree of sub-optimal that differs).

The rotation at end of December was into Large Caps ($IVV). For the month of January the strategy lost about 3.5%.

The strategy has losing periods. It is by no means perfect. And frequently- the selected ETF is not the best performer over the holding period. It's benchmarked to the $SPY.

The strength of the strategy is over a longer period of time/years. I'm extremely confident that this strategy will handily beat the $SPY over a 3-5-10-20 year time span. If it did under-perform the $SPY - I believe the strategy would still have yielded an "abnormal" positive gain (example is 2013 when the strategy under-performed the $SPY by about 4% - but still had a 28% gain.)

$ADRE has/is doing very well. And while it isn't uncommon to have significant gains over a holding period - 13% in just over 2 months is not typical.

Anyone expecting $ADRE July-present gains every month - this isn't the strategy for you either. Like I've said - take your time - look at the real time results that get posted - be 100% comfortable - but if you commit - commit to a year or I think you'll be disappointed.

 

[Drifter]

Another question for Siff on the sector rotation -

How did you methodology work last January? Did it accurate predict that bonds were the correct place to be for the month of January or did it err on the side of the Small Caps, Mid Caps or Intl sectors being the play (which would have been a better play from a Dec-Feb timeframe)?

Also, to clarify, I'm not knocking it, I'm just trying to understand it better - both it's apparent strengths as well as where it might be very good but perhaps still sub-optimal (which pretty much everything is - it's just the degree of sub-optimal that differs).

The rotation at end of December was into Large Caps ($IVV). For the month of January the strategy lost about 3.5%.

The strategy has losing periods. It is by no means perfect. And frequently- the selected ETF is not the best performer over the holding period. It's benchmarked to the $SPY.

The strength of the strategy is over a longer period of time/years. I'm extremely confident that this strategy will handily beat the $SPY over a 3-5-10-20 year time span. If it did under-perform the $SPY - I believe the strategy would still have yielded an "abnormal" positive gain (example is 2013 when the strategy under-performed the $SPY by about 4% - but still had a 28% gain.)

$ADRE has/is doing very well. And while it isn't uncommon to have significant gains over a holding period - 13% in just over 2 months is not typical.

Anyone expecting $ADRE July-present gains every month - this isn't the strategy for you either. Like I've said - take your time - look at the real time results that get posted - be 100% comfortable - but if you commit - commit to a year or I think you'll be disappointed.

Hopefully you don't mind if I continue to ask questions. I find this very interesting and am learning quite a bit.

Looking at the past year on a very simplistic basis, I see that every sector had a negative month after its highest month of gains in the past 12 months. This holds true when looking at the $ gains or in the number of days within the month that closed higher than they opened. The one exception to this is $Adre in February. That might be an outlier in that it happened to follow 3 straight negative months. August was its second biggest gainer in the last 12 and August also had a higher number of days closing higher than opening than any other month in the previous 12 which also correlates in this simplistic analysis to a down month afterwards.

Does that concern you or is that simplistic an analysis treading into emotional territory?

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Bought 200 FAZ @ 15.94 ahead of the jobs report tomorrow. :throwsdice:

 

[siffoin]

Another question for Siff on the sector rotation -

How did you methodology work last January? Did it accurate predict that bonds were the correct place to be for the month of January or did it err on the side of the Small Caps, Mid Caps or Intl sectors being the play (which would have been a better play from a Dec-Feb timeframe)?

Also, to clarify, I'm not knocking it, I'm just trying to understand it better - both it's apparent strengths as well as where it might be very good but perhaps still sub-optimal (which pretty much everything is - it's just the degree of sub-optimal that differs).

The rotation at end of December was into Large Caps ($IVV). For the month of January the strategy lost about 3.5%.

The strategy has losing periods. It is by no means perfect. And frequently- the selected ETF is not the best performer over the holding period. It's benchmarked to the $SPY.

The strength of the strategy is over a longer period of time/years. I'm extremely confident that this strategy will handily beat the $SPY over a 3-5-10-20 year time span. If it did under-perform the $SPY - I believe the strategy would still have yielded an "abnormal" positive gain (example is 2013 when the strategy under-performed the $SPY by about 4% - but still had a 28% gain.)

$ADRE has/is doing very well. And while it isn't uncommon to have significant gains over a holding period - 13% in just over 2 months is not typical.

Anyone expecting $ADRE July-present gains every month - this isn't the strategy for you either. Like I've said - take your time - look at the real time results that get posted - be 100% comfortable - but if you commit - commit to a year or I think you'll be disappointed.

Hopefully you don't mind if I continue to ask questions. I find this very interesting and am learning quite a bit.

Looking at the past year on a very simplistic basis, I see that every sector had a negative month after its highest month of gains in the past 12 months. This holds true when looking at the $ gains or in the number of days within the month that closed higher than they opened. The one exception to this is $Adre in February. That might be an outlier in that it happened to follow 3 straight negative months. August was its second biggest gainer in the last 12 and August also had a higher number of days closing higher than opening than any other month in the previous 12 which also correlates in this simplistic analysis to a down month afterwards.

Does that concern you or is that simplistic an analysis treading into emotional territory?

I think you're thinking of this as a "holy grail." That's not what this. I don't think we'd do better by adding layers of complexity to the strategy either.

The goal is simple and it is sound. Beat the $SPY. It does more than 60% of the time.

My feelings are it's a safe means of LT investing for retirement/college etc. I really like the simplicity of the concept.

I'm always concerned with every open position I hold. But I think we have to recognize the fact that part of trading/investing is losing. Not every play results in a first down; not every series results in a score; not every game results in a win. But in a game against the $SPY (biggest player in the world)- we win 60% of the time. And for a strategy that takes less than 1 hour per month to implement - I'll take that and run.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Another question for Siff on the sector rotation -

How did you methodology work last January? Did it accurate predict that bonds were the correct place to be for the month of January or did it err on the side of the Small Caps, Mid Caps or Intl sectors being the play (which would have been a better play from a Dec-Feb timeframe)?

Also, to clarify, I'm not knocking it, I'm just trying to understand it better - both it's apparent strengths as well as where it might be very good but perhaps still sub-optimal (which pretty much everything is - it's just the degree of sub-optimal that differs).

The rotation at end of December was into Large Caps ($IVV). For the month of January the strategy lost about 3.5%.The strategy has losing periods. It is by no means perfect. And frequently- the selected ETF is not the best performer over the holding period. It's benchmarked to the $SPY.

The strength of the strategy is over a longer period of time/years. I'm extremely confident that this strategy will handily beat the $SPY over a 3-5-10-20 year time span. If it did under-perform the $SPY - I believe the strategy would still have yielded an "abnormal" positive gain (example is 2013 when the strategy under-performed the $SPY by about 4% - but still had a 28% gain.)

$ADRE has/is doing very well. And while it isn't uncommon to have significant gains over a holding period - 13% in just over 2 months is not typical.

Anyone expecting $ADRE July-present gains every month - this isn't the strategy for you either. Like I've said - take your time - look at the real time results that get posted - be 100% comfortable - but if you commit - commit to a year or I think you'll be disappointed.

Hopefully you don't mind if I continue to ask questions. I find this very interesting and am learning quite a bit.

Looking at the past year on a very simplistic basis, I see that every sector had a negative month after its highest month of gains in the past 12 months. This holds true when looking at the $ gains or in the number of days within the month that closed higher than they opened. The one exception to this is $Adre in February. That might be an outlier in that it happened to follow 3 straight negative months. August was its second biggest gainer in the last 12 and August also had a higher number of days closing higher than opening than any other month in the previous 12 which also correlates in this simplistic analysis to a down month afterwards.

Does that concern you or is that simplistic an analysis treading into emotional territory?

I think you're thinking of this as a "holy grail." That's not what this. I don't think we'd do better by adding layers of complexity to the strategy either. The goal is simple and it is sound. Beat the $SPY. It does more than 60% of the time.

My feelings are it's a safe means of LT investing for retirement/college etc. I really like the simplicity of the concept.

I'm always concerned with every open position I hold. But I think we have to recognize the fact that part of trading/investing is losing. Not every play results in a first down; not every series results in a score; not every game results in a win. But in a game against the $SPY (biggest player in the world)- we win 60% of the time. And for a strategy that takes less than 1 hour per month to implement - I'll take that and run.

So you're basically saying that 60% of the time, it works...every time.

I will now refer to this as the Sex Panther Strategy

(Seriously, great answer, and I agree completely with your retirement/college LT investing angle for it. That's where I started using this, in IRA accounts)

 

[St. Louis Bob]

BABA opening 9/19 but can't get in the IPO. Think I'm going to buy some at whatever and see what happens.

 

[fantasycurse42]

ADRE the last two days

 

[Drifter]

It's not like any of the other sectors are killing it. Not a single one is up MTD with IVV performing "best" at even.

 

[fantasycurse42]

It's not like any of the other sectors are killing it. Not a single one is up MTD with IVV performing "best" at even.

I know

 

[siffoin]

ADRE the last two days

We'll just have to see what happens. If you stick with the strategy you hold. But I don't have control over what you do. From $39-$43 in a few months is still better than the historic average of yearly gains in the SP500. So if this is too much stress to bear - take profits. I think Rothschild once said "I made my fortune taking profits early." But the purpose of this strategy is to not be so tick by tick focused on a portfolio. So if you did sell - you defeat the whole underlying purpose of the strategy in the first place.

In the short term- what I see is a bearish trend in the early stages - and what that means is likely more pain in the short term.

On a longer term chart (the ones I use in analysis) - $ADRE is at support - but the major indicators are so strongly bullish that even if we dipped below support - I'd be very surprised if this doesn't go back to and likely exceed the recent highs. Whether it can do that by end of the month remains to be seen. And remember a flip to a new Sector means the present sector under-performs.

Of course this is all a best guess. And I don't know the future. Gary Anderson once had a "sure-thing" easy FG to send the Vikes to the Superbowl and he missed (meaning there is no "sure-thing" in sports or in investments or in the outcome of ANY future event).

 

[General Malaise]

Amaya makes me jumpy & quo

 

[fantasycurse42]

ADRE the last two days

We'll just have to see what happens. If you stick with the strategy you hold. But I don't have control over what you do. From $39-$43 in a few months is still better than the historic average of yearly gains in the SP500. So if this is too much stress to bear - take profits. I think Rothschild once said "I made my fortune taking profits early." But the purpose of this strategy is to not be so tick by tick focused on a portfolio. So if you did sell - you defeat the whole underlying purpose of the strategy in the first place.

In the short term- what I see is a bearish trend in the early stages - and what that means is likely more pain in the short term.

On a longer term chart (the ones I use in analysis) - $ADRE is at support - but the major indicators are so strongly bullish that even if we dipped below support - I'd be very surprised if this doesn't go back to and likely exceed the recent highs. Whether it can do that by end of the month remains to be seen. And remember a flip to a new Sector means the present sector under-performs.

Of course this is all a best guess. And I don't know the future. Gary Anderson once had a "sure-thing" easy FG to send the Vikes to the Superbowl and he missed (meaning there is no "sure-thing" in sports or in investments or in the outcome of ANY future event).

I'm in on this strategy long term, so I'm a holder... I just looked today and see a 3% fall in two days & I get a little jittery...

 

[General Malaise]

 

[eoMMan]

GoPro has been on fire. Guess I sold a few weeks too soon.

 

[Eminence]

The deed has been done, my portfolio is now:

35% Walgreens

65% World Wrestling Entertainment

Let's hope Summerslam has a decent buy-rate and the WWE Network has a decent number of subscribers by the end of 2014!

I think a case can be made that $WWE is in the process of putting in a bottom. As of yet, a new bull trend is not confirmed. Good luck.

The lesson here is to look at your strategy. What you are basically doing is trading in one stock ($WAG) that is outperforming the broad market (in what is quite possibly the strongest bull market of your lifetime) for another stock ($WWE) that is significantly under-performing the broad market - and under-performing by a significant margin.

This is not to say $WWE will not outperform $WAG from here on out. But in general investing terms, one would do far better buying the strongest performing stocks in the strongest performing sectors when the broad market is bullish. Your strategy is rife with risk, increased volatility, and apt to result in emotional behaviors that will in the long run negatively impact your portfolio.

Think of trading/investing like an athlete. You want to hone behaviors that are fundamentally and technically sound. By doing so you create consistency....consistency is what brings long term success. Top/bottoming picking is probably the single most difficult technical skill to master.

One other side-note: excluding employees vested into company IPOs - Long term I think you would come out far ahead by keeping the stock of the company you work for. Just on this page we see one person retiring by maintaining his LT position in the stock of the company he's worked for.

How is this different than timing the market?

I think every single move that a trader/investor makes - whether that be a buy or a sell - is a "timing the market move."

One only buys $XYZ today because they believe that from this point forward the price will rise.

One only sells $ABC today because they believe that from this point forward price will fall.

Both of those moves are timing moves.

Now if what we're talking about is the ability to find the absolute price bottom of $XYZ and purchase it at that precise moment/bottom - this is essentially what Eminence is attempting to do with $WWE. And what I'm saying is that this is an extremely difficult skill to master. It's not a solitary skill of just picking the bottom either. Over time and multiple trades it's a combination of skills that include a jedi-like mastery of technical analysis as well as a keen ability to properly manage the position with extreme discipline. Strictly adhering to a well thought through set of trading rules with a focus on knowing how and when to fold and how and when to hold. The win rate of this type of a market timer is low. But the gains on wins (when executed to perfection) can be extraordinarily high.

I personally like a higher win rate. And for that, I'm willing to sacrifice trying to find absolute tops/and bottoms and be satisfied with catching the "meat of the move". This is the basis trend trading.

What Em is attempting to do is very difficult to do consistently. Now it is possible on this one trade he wins. And a win might actually be the worse thing for him, because it might pattern a belief that he has a skill which he doesn't actually have.

In the same way that I could take a chimpanzee and Ben Crenshaw and have them both attempt a 50' putt. And the chimp might get lucky and sink the putt while Crenshaw might lag to 1 foot. On the basis of 1 data set the chimp would conclude he was a better putter than Crenshaw - but he would be very wrong.

And the chimpanzee sinks the putt!

 

[fantasycurse42]

"And a win might actually be the worse thing for him, because it might pattern a belief that he has a skill which he doesn't actually have."

Em, this quote from Siff really sticks out to me. You should reread it over & over & over & over & over & over again.

If you think your investing skills are that magical, you should max out your credit cards (surely you can beat the interest on your returns), invest every penny you earn (screw paying anyone as you'll have more than enough as those huge returns start compounding), & start building the empire.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

The deed has been done, my portfolio is now:

35% Walgreens

65% World Wrestling Entertainment

Let's hope Summerslam has a decent buy-rate and the WWE Network has a decent number of subscribers by the end of 2014!

I think a case can be made that $WWE is in the process of putting in a bottom. As of yet, a new bull trend is not confirmed. Good luck.The lesson here is to look at your strategy. What you are basically doing is trading in one stock ($WAG) that is outperforming the broad market (in what is quite possibly the strongest bull market of your lifetime) for another stock ($WWE) that is significantly under-performing the broad market - and under-performing by a significant margin.

This is not to say $WWE will not outperform $WAG from here on out. But in general investing terms, one would do far better buying the strongest performing stocks in the strongest performing sectors when the broad market is bullish. Your strategy is rife with risk, increased volatility, and apt to result in emotional behaviors that will in the long run negatively impact your portfolio.

Think of trading/investing like an athlete. You want to hone behaviors that are fundamentally and technically sound. By doing so you create consistency....consistency is what brings long term success. Top/bottoming picking is probably the single most difficult technical skill to master.

One other side-note: excluding employees vested into company IPOs - Long term I think you would come out far ahead by keeping the stock of the company you work for. Just on this page we see one person retiring by maintaining his LT position in the stock of the company he's worked for.

How is this different than timing the market?

I think every single move that a trader/investor makes - whether that be a buy or a sell - is a "timing the market move."One only buys $XYZ today because they believe that from this point forward the price will rise.

One only sells $ABC today because they believe that from this point forward price will fall.

Both of those moves are timing moves.

Now if what we're talking about is the ability to find the absolute price bottom of $XYZ and purchase it at that precise moment/bottom - this is essentially what Eminence is attempting to do with $WWE. And what I'm saying is that this is an extremely difficult skill to master. It's not a solitary skill of just picking the bottom either. Over time and multiple trades it's a combination of skills that include a jedi-like mastery of technical analysis as well as a keen ability to properly manage the position with extreme discipline. Strictly adhering to a well thought through set of trading rules with a focus on knowing how and when to fold and how and when to hold. The win rate of this type of a market timer is low. But the gains on wins (when executed to perfection) can be extraordinarily high.

I personally like a higher win rate. And for that, I'm willing to sacrifice trying to find absolute tops/and bottoms and be satisfied with catching the "meat of the move". This is the basis trend trading.

What Em is attempting to do is very difficult to do consistently. Now it is possible on this one trade he wins. And a win might actually be the worse thing for him, because it might pattern a belief that he has a skill which he doesn't actually have.

In the same way that I could take a chimpanzee and Ben Crenshaw and have them both attempt a 50' putt. And the chimp might get lucky and sink the putt while Crenshaw might lag to 1 foot. On the basis of 1 data set the chimp would conclude he was a better putter than Crenshaw - but he would be very wrong.

And the chimpanzee sinks the putt!

I bought $500 worth at $11 a share and sold at a $0.20 loss per share

 

[sbonomo]

Siff, don't waste your time with that idiot. You have provided this board with unbelievable analysis and have given us all invaluable insight into your system. Just put that tool on ignore.

 

[Eminence]

Siff, don't waste your time with that idiot. You have provided this board with unbelievable analysis and have given us all invaluable insight into your system. Just put that tool on ignore.

How's my stock pick doing in the stock contest? You know, that contest a few 'experts' from this thread played in.

 

[sbonomo]

Siff, don't waste your time with that idiot. You have provided this board with unbelievable analysis and have given us all invaluable insight into your system. Just put that tool on ignore.

How's my stock pick doing in the stock contest? You know, that contest a few 'experts' from this thread played in.

It is actually doing very well for me i actually own the stock (AMZN). Yes i orignally purchased it at $360 (100 shares) and again at $317 (200 shares) because i believe it is a long term buy and hold. You see in the real world I don't just go to internet boards and put together fantasy pics. Your pick (FB) is doing well for you, how much have you made on it (non fantasy dollars)? I actually bought the IPO (1000 shares) so it is doing pretty well for me. How are those fantasy dollars spending for you these days?

 

[Eminence]

I don't have the money to invest. I'm going to school for Accounting. I would like to have an extensive portfolio one day. I figure there's not much harm in pointing out obvious buying opportunities. I want to be pulling off shark moves like you've listed above.

This is where the money is at.

 

[sbonomo]

I don't have the money to invest. I'm going to school for Accounting. I would like to have an extensive portfolio one day. I figure there's not much harm in pointing out obvious buying opportunities. I want to be pulling off shark moves like you've listed above.

This is where the money is at.

Here is a free piece of advice: until you start putting your money where your mouth is, stop claiming to be a stock picking guru. It make you look like a fool. Shut your mouth and take advice from guys like Siff that have been there and done that. When i first started out in the real world one of the partners gave me a great piece of advice - "have big ears and a little mouth when you are learning about something new".

 

[Drifter]

Pretty bloody out there today.

Siff - I know it's early in the month and I'm not second guessing anything but right now every sector in the strategy is negative MTD. I don't see where that's happened over a month period in the last 12 months. What's your take on that? Market uncertainty?

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I don't have the money to invest. I'm going to school for Accounting. I would like to have an extensive portfolio one day. I figure there's not much harm in pointing out obvious buying opportunities. I want to be pulling off shark moves like you've listed above.

This is where the money is at.

"have big ears and a little mouth when you are learning about something new".

If I can find a twenty-something who fits that profile, she's so going to be the one I disappoint with the second half of my life.

 

[General Malaise]

Siff, don't waste your time with that idiot. You have provided this board with unbelievable analysis and have given us all invaluable insight into your system. Just put that tool on ignore.

How's my stock pick doing in the stock contest? You know, that contest a few 'experts' from this thread played in.

You got a link to this little contest? I'd like to see how everybody is doing in it. Are you leading this thing or are there other guys doing better? I'll hang up and listen.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Just checked Adre, PAINFUL week! I've got a stop at $41. Not letting this turn into a loser

 

[siffoin]

Siff, don't waste your time with that idiot. You have provided this board with unbelievable analysis and have given us all invaluable insight into your system. Just put that tool on ignore.

I hope everyone is successful. Doesn't bother me at all.

 

[siffoin]

Pretty bloody out there today.

Siff - I know it's early in the month and I'm not second guessing anything but right now every sector in the strategy is negative MTD. I don't see where that's happened over a month period in the last 12 months. What's your take on that? Market uncertainty?

Will have to see how the close of the day goes. But remember this is a system set up to beat/outperform the $SPY. It's not one designed to WIN every month. At the close yesterday $ADRE was still beating all of the other 5 sectors for each time frames measured - meaning the system is doing its job. Certainly in the present moment this is painful...I did mention a couple of days ago that I thought we were in the early stage of (at minimum) a ST bearish trend developing...and it has. I also agree with Fantasycurse42 - you don't want to let winners turn to losers...it's the single #1 rule for investing. But for the sake of the strategy there are NO SELLS/CLOSING of positions until the last day of the month. Another good lesson on why I suggested people who wanted in early this month to WAIT for the next sector roll. I personally am committed to this because I believe you only get better at this game by having $ in play and experiencing the thrill of victory as well as the agony of defeat. We've got a few weeks to see what happens. (it's half time and the Eagles are getting their asses kicked by the Jags...surely there is no hope for them..right?)

I look at charts all day long - and imo I don't have confirmation that $ADRE has yet to bottom. Longer term - I would be really surprised to see on the next ST Bear to Bull trend this not make a move back towards the old highs. The question is: when is that next trend (bear to bull) flip going to happen and what is the price of $ADRE at that time? The $SPY looks weak and we really need to hope that the weekend humpty dumpty night monkeys can put this bull back together again.

I have zero problem with anyone judging the merits of this system. And it's one reason why I've encouraged others to watch. We also have to remember that part of the simplicity of this is to allow investors the "emotional freedom" to not make rash decisions based on the day to day; tick to tick moves of the position held. You act 1 day per month. But I understand everyone has different needs.

Question: Are we beating the $SPY over the measured time frames?

Answer (as of yesterday) YES!

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Siff, don't waste your time with that idiot. You have provided this board with unbelievable analysis and have given us all invaluable insight into your system. Just put that tool on ignore.

How's my stock pick doing in the stock contest? You know, that contest a few 'experts' from this thread played in.

You got a link to this little contest? I'd like to see how everybody is doing in it. Are you leading this thing or are there other guys doing better? I'll hang up and listen.

Braggart

 

[General Malaise]

Siff, don't waste your time with that idiot. You have provided this board with unbelievable analysis and have given us all invaluable insight into your system. Just put that tool on ignore.

How's my stock pick doing in the stock contest? You know, that contest a few 'experts' from this thread played in.

You got a link to this little contest? I'd like to see how everybody is doing in it. Are you leading this thing or are there other guys doing better? I'll hang up and listen.

Braggart

VULVA SUPOSITORIES!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111111

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Siff, don't waste your time with that idiot. You have provided this board with unbelievable analysis and have given us all invaluable insight into your system. Just put that tool on ignore.

How's my stock pick doing in the stock contest? You know, that contest a few 'experts' from this thread played in.

You got a link to this little contest? I'd like to see how everybody is doing in it. Are you leading this thing or are there other guys doing better? I'll hang up and listen.

Braggart

VULVA SUPOSITORIES!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111111

I'm laughing all the way to the stank

 

[Drifter]

Pretty bloody out there today.

Siff - I know it's early in the month and I'm not second guessing anything but right now every sector in the strategy is negative MTD. I don't see where that's happened over a month period in the last 12 months. What's your take on that? Market uncertainty?

Will have to see how the close of the day goes. But remember this is a system set up to beat/outperform the $SPY. It's not one designed to WIN every month. At the close yesterday $ADRE was still beating all of the other 5 sectors for each time frames measured - meaning the system is doing its job. Certainly in the present moment this is painful...I did mention a couple of days ago that I thought we were in the early stage of (at minimum) a ST bearish trend developing...and it has. I also agree with Fantasycurse42 - you don't want to let winners turn to losers...it's the single #1 rule for investing. But for the sake of the strategy there are NO SELLS/CLOSING of positions until the last day of the month. Another good lesson on why I suggested people who wanted in early this month to WAIT for the next sector roll. I personally am committed to this because I believe you only get better at this game by having $ in play and experiencing the thrill of victory as well as the agony of defeat. We've got a few weeks to see what happens. (it's half time and the Eagles are getting their asses kicked by the Jags...surely there is no hope for them..right?)

I look at charts all day long - and imo I don't have confirmation that $ADRE has yet to bottom. Longer term - I would be really surprised to see on the next ST Bear to Bull trend this not make a move back towards the old highs. The question is: when is that next trend (bear to bull) flip going to happen and what is the price of $ADRE at that time? The $SPY looks weak and we really need to hope that the weekend humpty dumpty night monkeys can put this bull back together again.

I have zero problem with anyone judging the merits of this system. And it's one reason why I've encouraged others to watch. We also have to remember that part of the simplicity of this is to allow investors the "emotional freedom" to not make rash decisions based on the day to day; tick to tick moves of the position held. You act 1 day per month. But I understand everyone has different needs.

Question: Are we beating the $SPY over the measured time frames?

Answer (as of yesterday) YES!

I think you misinterpreted my question. I'm really wondering what it means that all of the sectors are down MTD when at no time in the previous 12 months has that happened when looking at month open to month close. GIven, there are 12 trading days left in the month so that's not final but I think it's interesting and wondering what you think of that particular aspect.

 

[Eminence]

Siff, don't waste your time with that idiot. You have provided this board with unbelievable analysis and have given us all invaluable insight into your system. Just put that tool on ignore.

How's my stock pick doing in the stock contest? You know, that contest a few 'experts' from this thread played in.

You got a link to this little contest? I'd like to see how everybody is doing in it. Are you leading this thing or are there other guys doing better? I'll hang up and listen.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=702284&page=1

I'm currently in 9th place out of 68.

 

[fantasycurse42]

SGYP... Anyone own or follow? My interest is peaked on this one. I'm not a scientist, but the reading I have done infers that this company makes a product for IBS that through P1 and P2 trials has performed similarly to it's competition with much fewer side effects.

 

[culdeus]

Why is the dollar on such a strong run?

 

[BeTheMatch]

GM, is this BioSyent going to go up forever or what? You guys bailing on it at any point, or is it still going to be a long-term hold?

 

[BeTheMatch]

SGYP... Anyone own or follow? My interest is peaked on this one. I'm not a scientist, but the reading I have done infers that this company makes a product for IBS that through P1 and P2 trials has performed similarly to it's competition with much fewer side effects.

complete disaster. could've taken some pretty big profits a long time ago. no such luck.

 

[Drifter]

GM, is this BioSyent going to go up forever or what? You guys bailing on it at any point, or is it still going to be a long-term hold?

My personal (limited) experience with small Bio-Pharms is that it will continue to climb until whatever big event (FDA approval, successful clinical trials, acquisition, etc) happesn at which point there will be a pop. The flip side is that any news perceived as bad will be over-reacted to with a precipitous drop.

 

[SIDA!]

We're cool siff, I've had to do a bit of a name change on here but

 

[General Malaise]

GM, is this BioSyent going to go up forever or what? You guys bailing on it at any point, or is it still going to be a long-term hold?

My personal (limited) experience with small Bio-Pharms is that it will continue to climb until whatever big event (FDA approval, successful clinical trials, acquisition, etc) happesn at which point there will be a pop. The flip side is that any news perceived as bad will be over-reacted to with a precipitous drop.

Well....keep in mind that BioSyent isn't really a Bio-Pharm in the traditional sense. They are a "Life Science" company that doesn't develop drugs; rather, they acquire the license and exclusive rights of a product that has been successfully developed, proven safe and effective and have a track record of success. Then they market and sell the hell out of the products, of which, there are only four in their arsenal.

One hallmark is that their products are organic and natural, which is appealing to women who are sticking things up their ho-haas. Take RepaGyn for an exmaple:

RepaGyn® (sodium hyaluronate) is an innovative ######l suppository recommended for the healing of the ######l mucosa and the treatment of ######l dryness caused by menopause, stress and chemotherapy. It is also recommended in situations where tissue repair is required after invasive ######l surgeries and biopsy procedures. RepaGyn® ######l suppositories can be used with or without local hormone therapy.

This product is not available in the US, but I imagine their will be a clamoring for it in due time. They also produce a food-safe, non-toxic insecticide to protect grain farmers from infestation. According to the innertubes, BioSyent was formerly another company that was incorporated in 1947.

CEO likes to keep expenses very low, not take on debt, avoid risk and grow organically.

 

[General Malaise]

GM, is this BioSyent going to go up forever or what? You guys bailing on it at any point, or is it still going to be a long-term hold?

I'm not bailing and we're not bailing. We tend to ride winners and will average up. We have a non-PC saying here that "averaging down killed more...." well, that's all I'm going to say on that.

If I sell, I'll mention it here.

Another core holding is acting well today: Clearwater Seafoods. I wrote about that here a while back. Another stock with sensible management and high insider ownership. Starting to make some nice northern moves.

 

[General Malaise]

GM, is this BioSyent going to go up forever or what? You guys bailing on it at any point, or is it still going to be a long-term hold?

My personal (limited) experience with small Bio-Pharms is that it will continue to climb until whatever big event (FDA approval, successful clinical trials, acquisition, etc) happesn at which point there will be a pop. The flip side is that any news perceived as bad will be over-reacted to with a precipitous drop.

Well....keep in mind that BioSyent isn't really a Bio-Pharm in the traditional sense. They are a "Life Science" company that doesn't develop drugs; rather, they acquire the license and exclusive rights of a product that has been successfully developed, proven safe and effective and have a track record of success. Then they market and sell the hell out of the products, of which, there are only four in their arsenal.

One hallmark is that their products are organic and natural, which is appealing to women who are sticking things up their ho-haas. Take RepaGyn for an exmaple:

RepaGyn® (sodium hyaluronate) is an innovative ######l suppository recommended for the healing of the ######l mucosa and the treatment of ######l dryness caused by menopause, stress and chemotherapy. It is also recommended in situations where tissue repair is required after invasive ######l surgeries and biopsy procedures. RepaGyn® ######l suppositories can be used with or without local hormone therapy.

This product is not available in the US, but I imagine their will be a clamoring for it in due time. They also produce a food-safe, non-toxic insecticide to protect grain farmers from infestation. According to the innertubes, BioSyent was formerly another company that was incorporated in 1947.

CEO likes to keep expenses very low, not take on debt, avoid risk and grow organically.

LOL at the censorship here. Silly silly silly.

And Drifter, I do think you are spot on with your analysis of small bio-pharms who are developing drugs.